Tearsheet

Moodys (MCO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $498.79 | Market Cap: $89.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data

Moodys (MCO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $498.79
Market Cap: $89.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 2.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%
Key risks
MCO key risks include [1] the potential for its significant investments in AI to outpace revenue generation, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 2.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x
7 Key risks
MCO key risks include [1] the potential for its significant investments in AI to outpace revenue generation, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Moody's (MCO) experienced a -1.9% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, influenced by several key factors:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report Reaction: Despite Moody's Corporation reporting robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 22, 2025, which surpassed analyst forecasts for adjusted EPS and revenue, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.65% in pre-market trading. The company had reported an 11% revenue growth, a 23% increase in diluted EPS, and raised its full-year guidance for adjusted diluted EPS growth to 17% at the midpoint, along with increasing share repurchase guidance to at least $1.5 billion.

2. Analyst Price Target Adjustments: Following the Q3 earnings, some analyst firms adjusted their price targets for MCO. For instance, on October 23, 2025, Stifel maintained a "Hold" rating but lowered its price target for Moody's from $526 to $471, which could have contributed to negative sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MCO Return23%36%-28%42%22%5%119%
Peers Return43%38%-25%29%11%-20%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MCO Win Rate67%67%33%67%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%65%38%60%55%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MCO Max Drawdown-30%-9%-39%-1%-6%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-12%-35%-6%-12%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SPGI, MSCI, MORN, VRSK, FDS. See MCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven579 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven106 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven102 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven378.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,821 days1,480 days

Compare to BLK, SPGI, CBOE, MORN, CME


In The Past

Moodys's stock fell -42.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -42.2% loss requires a 72.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Moodys (MCO)

Better Bets than Moodys (MCO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
MCO_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022MCOMoodysMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
25.4%41.5%-0.8%
MCO_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022MCOMoodysMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.8%29.4%-13.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
MCO_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022MCOMoodysMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
25.4%41.5%-0.8%
MCO_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022MCOMoodysMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.8%29.4%-13.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Moodys

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MCOSPGIMSCIMORNVRSKFDSMedian
NameMoodys S&P Glob.MSCI Mornings.Verisk A.FactSet . 
Mkt Price499.02510.59560.97213.89219.17296.13397.57
Mkt Cap89.3155.442.99.030.611.236.7
Rev LTM7,50115,0123,0552,3953,0302,3223,042
Op Inc LTM3,2866,0311,6554711,3477481,501
FCF LTM2,3985,4611,3883941,1166171,252
FCF 3Y Avg2,1664,6571,2733329426051,108
CFO LTM2,7175,6431,5185391,3487261,433
CFO 3Y Avg2,4704,8051,3804661,1796911,280

Growth & Margins

MCOSPGIMSCIMORNVRSKFDSMedian
NameMoodys S&P Glob.MSCI Mornings.Verisk A.FactSet . 
Rev Chg LTM8.8%9.0%9.0%7.8%7.3%5.4%8.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.8%13.3%11.2%8.9%13.4%8.0%10.5%
Rev Chg Q10.7%8.8%9.5%8.4%5.9%6.2%8.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%2.1%2.3%2.0%1.4%1.5%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM43.8%40.2%54.2%19.7%44.4%32.2%42.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.7%36.3%54.1%15.6%43.6%31.4%38.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.5%1.7%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM36.2%37.6%49.7%22.5%44.5%31.3%36.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg36.8%34.8%50.0%20.9%41.6%31.3%35.8%
FCF/Rev LTM32.0%36.4%45.4%16.5%36.8%26.6%34.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg32.2%33.7%46.1%14.8%33.2%27.5%32.7%

Valuation

MCOSPGIMSCIMORNVRSKFDSMedian
NameMoodys S&P Glob.MSCI Mornings.Verisk A.FactSet . 
Mkt Cap89.3155.442.99.030.611.236.7
P/S11.49.914.24.111.64.710.6
P/EBIT26.024.126.117.726.013.925.0
P/E38.035.135.526.038.118.135.3
P/CFO31.426.228.618.126.014.926.1
Total Yield3.4%3.6%4.1%4.6%3.3%7.0%3.9%
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%1.3%0.8%0.7%1.5%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%3.3%2.9%2.9%2.6%4.2%2.9%
D/E0.10.10.10.10.10.10.1
Net D/E0.10.10.10.10.10.10.1

Returns

MCOSPGIMSCIMORNVRSKFDSMedian
NameMoodys S&P Glob.MSCI Mornings.Verisk A.FactSet . 
1M Rtn5.7%4.6%0.5%3.1%0.2%8.6%3.9%
3M Rtn-2.3%-6.0%-2.7%-13.9%-12.0%-11.5%-8.8%
6M Rtn6.5%2.0%3.8%-29.1%-28.2%-29.8%-13.1%
12M Rtn3.5%2.8%-7.1%-38.4%-21.3%-38.7%-14.2%
3Y Rtn81.6%54.1%23.2%1.6%27.6%-28.8%25.4%
1M Excs Rtn5.0%3.9%-0.2%2.4%-0.5%7.9%3.1%
3M Excs Rtn2.3%-0.6%-0.1%-9.6%-11.8%-2.7%-1.6%
6M Excs Rtn-5.9%-10.4%-8.6%-41.5%-40.5%-42.2%-25.5%
12M Excs Rtn-8.3%-9.4%-20.2%-50.1%-33.2%-49.8%-26.7%
3Y Excs Rtn7.4%-17.7%-51.6%-73.9%-45.4%-100.6%-48.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Moody’s Analytics (MA)3,0692,7772,4132,0861,963
Moody’s Investors Service (MIS)3,0462,8733,9773,4403,009
Eliminations-199-182-172-155-143
Total5,9165,4686,2185,3714,829


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Moody’s Investors Service (MIS)1,5571,3422,4031,9641,633
Moody’s Analytics (MA)580541441424365
Total2,1371,8832,8442,3881,998


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,148,866
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202516.5%
Average Daily Volume724,471
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.97
Basic Shares Quantity178,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-2.5%1.2%-2.3%
7/23/20251.8%2.3%3.4%
2/13/20254.4%1.2%-11.4%
10/22/2024-3.9%-5.1%-3.7%
7/23/20240.3%-0.0%5.3%
5/2/20240.9%6.2%6.7%
2/13/2024-7.9%-6.4%-2.8%
10/25/20232.8%0.8%19.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141313
# Negative101111
Median Positive1.6%2.3%5.1%
Median Negative-2.6%-3.7%-4.5%
Max Positive5.2%9.1%20.8%
Max Negative-7.9%-6.4%-28.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021