Moodys (MCO)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $454.2 | Market Cap: $80.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Moodys (MCO)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $454.2Market Cap: $80.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 45% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 3.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 23x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 32x Key risksMCO key risks include [1] the potential for its significant investments in AI to outpace revenue generation, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 45% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 3.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 23x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 32x |
| Key risksMCO key risks include [1] the potential for its significant investments in AI to outpace revenue generation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Tightening Financing Conditions.
Global debt markets experienced a "harsh reality check" in early 2026 due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, and interest rate volatility. These factors contributed to broader market swings and a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, which can pressure valuation multiples and weigh on corporate balance sheets. Corporate spreads widened in March 2026 for speculative-grade issuers by 35 basis points, and corporate yields increased by 85 basis points, reflecting tightened financing conditions.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Several prominent financial institutions lowered their price targets for Moody's stock in February and March 2026, signaling cautious sentiment among institutional analysts. Goldman Sachs, for instance, reduced its price target to $532 from $603. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barclays, and Mizuho also revised their target prices downwards during this period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.6% change in MCO stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 514.45 | 454.55 | -11.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,501 | 7,873 | 5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.9% | 31.7% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.0 | 32.2 | -21.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 179 | 177 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCO | -11.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | -3.0% | 49.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.0% change in MCO stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 478.31 | 454.55 | -5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,501 | 7,873 | 5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.9% | 31.7% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.1 | 32.2 | -15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 179 | 177 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCO | -5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 34.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.6% | 51.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.1% change in MCO stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 449.56 | 454.55 | 1.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,226 | 7,873 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.1% | 31.7% | 8.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.4 | 32.2 | -16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 180 | 177 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCO | 1.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 42.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.4% | 57.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.8% change in MCO stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 305.50 | 454.55 | 48.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,416 | 7,873 | 45.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.4% | 31.7% | 24.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.7 | 32.2 | -20.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 183 | 177 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCO | 48.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 62.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 63.2% | 66.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCO Return | 36% | -28% | 42% | 22% | 9% | -12% | 62% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -25% | 29% | 11% | -18% | -16% | 2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCO Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 38% | 60% | 55% | 42% | 24% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCO Max Drawdown | -9% | -39% | -1% | -6% | -16% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -35% | -6% | -12% | -27% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SPGI, MSCI, MORN, VRSK, FDS. See MCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Moodys's stock fell -23.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 204 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 866 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -29.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2051 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Moodys's stock fell -23.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Moodys (MCO)
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1. Like a FICO score provider, but for companies and governments.
2. Like Bloomberg, but focused on credit risk data and analytical tools.
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- Credit Ratings: Publishes independent assessments of creditworthiness for various debt obligations and the entities that issue them across global financial markets.
- Risk Management Software & Services: Develops and provides software solutions and related services that support the risk management activities of institutional financial participants.
- Financial Research & Data Products: Offers subscription-based research (credit, economic, business intelligence), quantitative data, analytical tools, and forecasts for financial markets.
- Professional Training & Certification: Provides online and classroom-based training services, along with credentialing and certification programs, for financial professionals.
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Moody's Corporation (MCO) primarily sells its services to other companies and institutional entities, rather than directly to individuals. Due to the vast and diverse nature of its customer base, which spans thousands of organizations globally, it is not practical to list specific customer company names with their symbols. Instead, its major customers can be categorized as follows:
-
Debt Issuers (Corporate and Governmental): These are entities that issue various debt obligations and utilize Moody's Investors Service to obtain credit ratings. This crucial service enables them to access capital markets. This category includes:
- Non-Financial Corporations: Companies across various industries that issue corporate bonds.
- Financial Institutions: Banks, insurance companies, and other financial services firms that issue debt.
- Governmental Entities: Sovereign nations, sub-sovereigns (states, provinces, municipalities), public finance issuers, and supranational institutions that issue governmental bonds.
- Structured Finance Entities: Issuers of structured finance securities, as well as infrastructure and project finance issuers.
-
Financial Market Participants / Institutional Investors: These are the "institutional participants in financial markets" who subscribe to Moody's Analytics' comprehensive suite of products and services. They use these offerings for risk management, investment research, data analysis, and decision-making. This category includes:
- Banks and Investment Banks
- Asset Managers and Investment Funds (e.g., Hedge Funds, Pension Funds)
- Insurance Companies
- Other Investment Firms and Securities Traders
-
Other Corporations and Public Sector Entities (for specialized analytics and data): This broader category includes companies and governmental bodies that leverage Moody's Analytics for specific insights, software solutions, and data beyond core credit ratings or traditional financial market participation. This can encompass:
- Enterprises requiring Business Intelligence and Company Information Products
- Real Estate Firms utilizing Commercial Real Estate Data and Analytical Tools
- Organizations needing Economic Research and Forecasts
- Companies and Public Sector clients using Risk Management Software Solutions and related services
- Professionals seeking Online and Classroom-based Training Services, and Credentialing/Certification.
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Robert Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer
Rob Fauber has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Moody's since January 2021. He joined Moody's in 2005 and previously held leadership roles including President of Moody's Ratings, and Head of Corporate Development where he was integral in establishing the company's Analytics business and expanding its global ratings footprint. Before joining Moody's, Mr. Fauber worked in banking at Bank of America and Citigroup, gaining experience in credit, capital markets, and M&A. His roles at Citigroup included Director of Planning and Business Development for its Alternative Investments division. He began his career as a Credit Analyst at NationsBank (now Bank of America).
Mark Kaye, Chief Financial Officer
Mark Kaye joined Moody's as Chief Financial Officer in 2018, with responsibility for global financial activities. Prior to Moody's, he was Senior Vice President and Head of Financial Planning and Analysis at Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual), and also served as CFO of MassMutual U.S. He held various senior finance leadership positions at Voya Financial (formerly ING U.S.), where he was involved in developing and executing the company's initial public offering in 2013. Mr. Kaye started his career in the investment banking division of Credit Suisse First Boston.
Michael West, President of Moody's Ratings
Michael West has been President of Moody's Ratings since November 2019. He joined Moody's in 1998 and has held several leadership roles, including Managing Director and Head of Moody's Ratings and Research, Head of Global Structured Finance, and Head of Global Corporate Finance. Before his tenure at Moody's, he worked in credit roles at Bank of America and HSBC.
Andy Frepp, Interim President – Moody's Analytics
Andy Frepp serves as Interim President of Moody's Analytics. Prior to this appointment, he was the Chief Operating Officer and previously the General Manager of Risk Solutions at Moody's Analytics.
Shivani Kak, Managing Director & Head-Investor Relations
Shivani Kak is the Managing Director and Head of Investor Relations for Moody's Corporation, a role she has held since 2019. She joined Moody's in 2008 as a Structured Finance Analyst and has since held various senior commercial roles in product management and business development. Before joining Moody's, Ms. Kak was a Director at Lehman Brothers, specializing in Structured Finance origination and structuring.
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Key Risks to Moody's Corporation (MCO)
- Regulatory Scrutiny, Reputational, and Litigation Risk: Moody's, as a major credit rating agency, faces significant exposure to regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning potential conflicts of interest inherent in the issuer-paid model and the transparency of its rating methodologies. Past criticisms, such as those following the 2008 financial crisis, highlight the risk of agencies failing to adequately anticipate market downturns or correctly assess complex financial products, leading to reputational damage and potential litigation. The opaque growth of the private credit market also presents heightened regulatory risk, as a failure to reflect structural risks in ratings could question Moody's reputation as an independent risk arbiter.
- Increased Competition and Technological Disruption: Moody's operates in a competitive environment with other major credit rating agencies (S&P Global and Fitch Ratings) and a growing number of FinTech and AI-driven solution providers. These emerging competitors can offer faster decision-making, richer data insights, and alternative credit scoring methods, potentially challenging Moody's established market position in both its Investors Service and Analytics segments. The demand for sophisticated risk assessment tools and the integration of AI by competitors necessitate continuous innovation and adaptation from Moody's to maintain its competitive edge.
- Impact of Economic Cycles and Market Volatility: The company's core credit ratings business is sensitive to global economic conditions and financial market volatility. Factors such as higher-for-longer interest rates can limit new debt issuance, directly impacting Moody's revenue generation from rating services. The cyclical nature of credit ratings, where downgrades often occur en masse during economic downturns and upgrades during booms, indicates that Moody's financial performance is closely tied to the overall health and activity of the debt markets.
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1. Emergence of AI-driven Alternative Credit Assessment and Risk Management Platforms: The rapid advancement and adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), combined with the proliferation of alternative data sources (e.g., satellite imagery, social media sentiment, supply chain data, transaction records), pose a clear emerging threat. Numerous companies are developing AI/ML-powered platforms that can generate sophisticated credit scores, risk profiles, and financial forecasts with greater speed, granularity, and potentially lower cost than traditional methods. While these platforms do not yet possess the regulatory authority of established credit rating agencies for all debt obligations, they directly challenge Moody's Analytics' offerings of subscription-based research, data, and analytical tools. Over the longer term, as these AI-driven solutions gain market acceptance and trust, they could also exert pressure on the perceived value and unique positioning of traditional credit ratings published by Moody's Investors Service, potentially reducing reliance on such assessments for certain market participants or asset classes.
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Addressable Markets for Moody's (MCO) Products and Services
Moody's Corporation operates in two primary segments: Moody's Investors Service, focusing on credit ratings, and Moody's Analytics, which provides a range of risk management, data, and analytical products and services. Based on these core offerings, the addressable markets for Moody's main products and services are sized as follows:
Credit Rating Services
The global credit rating market size was valued at approximately USD 6.5 billion in 2023. It is projected to reach around USD 11.2 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.1% during the forecast period. The global credit rating software market, a component of this, was valued at US$ 1.371 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach US$ 2.355 billion by 2032.
Financial Risk Management Software and Services
The global financial risk management software market was valued at USD 3.74 billion in 2024. This market is anticipated to reach approximately USD 14.39 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 14.42% over the forecast period. North America dominated this market with the largest share in 2024.
Financial Analytics
The global financial analytics market size was valued at USD 10.9 billion in 2023. It is projected to grow to USD 28.3 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 11.6% between 2024 and 2032. North America held the largest market share in the financial analytics market, accounting for over 34.0% in 2024.
Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) Solutions
The global Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) market size, which includes platforms and software, was valued at around USD 48.7 billion in 2023. This market is projected to reach USD 179.5 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of roughly 15.6% between 2024 and 2032. Focusing specifically on GRC software, the market was valued at USD 21.04 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 39.01 billion by 2031.
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Moody's Corporation (MCO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Recovery and Sustained Activity in Global Debt Capital Markets: A significant driver for Moody's Investors Service (MIS) segment is the ongoing recovery and increased activity in debt issuance across various categories, including high-yield, leveraged finance, and structured finance, as macroeconomic conditions improve and interest rate expectations stabilize. This is further supported by substantial debt maturities anticipated between 2025 and 2028, which are expected to fuel refinancing and new issuance activity.
- Continued Growth in Moody's Analytics (MA) with Specialized Solutions: The Moody's Analytics segment is consistently demonstrating strong growth, particularly in its Decision Solutions, Research & Insights, and Data & Information offerings. This growth is driven by increasing demand for comprehensive risk management tools, Know Your Customer (KYC) solutions, credit analytics, and data feeds, much of which is subscription-based, ensuring a high proportion of recurring revenue.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Geographic Expansion: Moody's is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to expand its capabilities, diversify its revenue streams, and deepen its presence in key markets. Recent examples include the acquisitions of CAPE Analytics, Praedicat, Numerated Growth Technologies, and GCR, which enhance its offerings and broaden its global reach, particularly in emerging and specialized credit markets.
- Technological Innovation, Including Generative AI Integration: The company is prioritizing innovation and the adoption of advanced technologies, notably generative AI, to enhance its product suite and improve operational efficiency. These investments aim to deliver best-in-class workflow solutions, integrated predictive credit analytics, and expanded cyber risk analytics, driving value for customers across various sectors.
- Addressing Demand in Private Credit and ESG/Climate Risk Solutions: Moody's is capitalizing on the growing market demand for specialized analytical tools and assessments in the private credit sector and for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and climate risk. The company is integrating climate analytics into solutions for banks and insurers and expanding its offerings to help customers better understand and manage evolving risks.
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Share Repurchases
- On October 21, 2025, Moody's Board of Directors authorized an additional $4 billion in share repurchase authority.
- During the second quarter of 2025, the company repurchased 1.0 million shares at an average price of $503.66 per share.
- Moody's expects to repurchase approximately $2 billion in shares during 2026.
Share Issuance
- In the second quarter of 2025, Moody's issued 53,000 net shares through employee stock-based compensation programs.
- On March 2, 2026, the President and CEO acquired 35,556 shares of common stock as a grant tied to the vesting of 2023–2025 performance shares.
- Moody's shares outstanding declined by 1.53% in 2025 to 0.18 billion, following a 0.71% decline in 2024 and a 0.38% decline in 2023, primarily due to repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- Moody's has completed a total of 26 acquisitions to date, with peak acquisition years including 2021 (6 acquisitions) and 2025 (3 acquisitions).
- Recent acquisitions in 2025 include Meris (September), ICR Chile (June), and CAPE Analytics (January).
- Other notable acquisitions in 2024 and 2022 include Numerated (November 2024), Praedicat (September 2024), and SCRiesgo (December 2022). These investments are part of the company's strategy to strengthen its business and grow.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $326 million in 2025, following $317 million in 2024, $271 million in 2023, and $283 million in 2022.
- For 2026, Moody's forecasts capital expenditures of approximately $447.2 million.
- These capital expenditures are primarily focused on investments in growth, efficiency, enhancing efficiency, and supporting long-term strategic goals, including AI, data, and workflow solutions.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Moodys Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 03/03/2026 | |
| MCO Stock Falls -20% In 7-day Losing Spree On Goldman PT Cut And Peer Warning | 02/12/2026 | |
| MCO Stock Falls -19% In 6-Day Spree On Sector Fears And PT Cut | 02/11/2026 | |
| MCO Stock Falls -13% On 5-Day Losing Spree On Goldman Price Target Cut | 02/10/2026 | |
| Better Value & Growth: COIN, SPGI Top Moodys Stock | 02/04/2026 | |
| Is MSCI a Better Buy Than Moodys? | 01/06/2026 | |
| Moodys Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Moodys vs Visa: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Moodys vs CME: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| MCO Tops CME Stock on Price & Potential | 05/02/2026 | |
| Why MCO, SPGI Could Outperform CME Stock | 03/31/2026 | |
| Stronger Bet Than CME Stock: MCO, SPGI Deliver More | 03/17/2026 | |
| MCO, SPGI Look Smarter Buy Than CME Stock | 03/07/2026 | |
| With Moodys Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 03/03/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MCO.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | HOMB | Home BancShares | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.8% |
| 12312022 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 25.4% | 41.5% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.8% | 29.4% | -13.3% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 321.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.5 |
| Rev LTM | 3,171 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,580 |
| FCF LTM | 1,298 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,164 |
| CFO LTM | 1,488 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,338 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 14.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 40.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 35.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.5 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 26.6 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -26.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -54.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) | 3,986 | 3,046 | 2,873 | 3,977 | 3,440 |
| Moody’s Analytics (MA) | 3,308 | 3,069 | 2,777 | 2,413 | 2,086 |
| Eliminations | -206 | -199 | -182 | -172 | -155 |
| Total | 7,088 | 5,916 | 5,468 | 6,218 | 5,371 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) | 2,299 | 1,557 | 1,342 | 2,403 | 1,964 |
| Moody’s Analytics (MA) | 576 | 580 | 541 | 441 | 424 |
| Eliminations | 0 | ||||
| Total | 2,875 | 2,137 | 1,883 | 2,844 | 2,388 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $454.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 80.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/31/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $448.69 | $481.79 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.3% | -5.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.3% | 26.0% |
| Downside Capture | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| Upside Capture | 102.12 | 85.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.3% | 41.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.85 | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Up Beta | 0.61 | 0.70 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.80 | 0.92 |
| Down Beta | -1.57 | -0.17 | -0.28 | 0.06 | 0.56 | 1.03 |
| Up Capture | 80% | 65% | 101% | 103% | 83% | 98% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 31 | 65 | 130 | 410 |
| Down Capture | 352% | 112% | 158% | 116% | 114% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 33 | 60 | 122 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | -1.4% | 25.9% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.3% | 14.6% | 0.14 | 57.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | -11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 26.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 17.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 8.2% | 26.2% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.4% | 18.7% | 0.39 | 65.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 70.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 61.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 25.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 17.6% | 27.8% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 67.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 75.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 20.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 62.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.5% | 1.2% | -2.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% |
| 2/13/2025 | 4.4% | 1.2% | -11.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | -3.9% | -5.1% | -3.7% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.3% | -0.0% | 5.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% |
| 2/13/2024 | -7.9% | -6.4% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 2.3% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -4.2% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.1% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.9% | -6.4% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 45.0% | -1.1% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 45.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 52.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 52.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 16 | 16.3 | 16.6 | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 15.3 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 16.4 | 16.7 | 17 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 16.7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.90 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | 3.25 Bil | 3.35 Bil | 3.45 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 2.50 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 MA Adjusted Operating Margin | 34.0% | 34.5% | 35.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 MIS Adjusted Operating Margin | 65.0% | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 45.0% | 45.5% | 46.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | Raised | Actual: 43.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 52.0% | 52.5% | 53.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | Raised | Actual: 51.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 15 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.3% | Raised | Actual: 13.3 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 16.4 | 16.7 | 17 | 14.2% | Raised | Actual: 14.6 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 16.0% | Raised | Actual: 2.50 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steele, Richard G | SVP - General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 466.39 | 158 | 73,690 | 999,418 | Form |
| 2 | Fauber, Robert | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 466.39 | 1,467 | 684,194 | 35,067,359 | Form |
| 3 | Fauber, Robert | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 437.77 | 1,467 | 642,209 | 33,046,784 | Form |
| 4 | Steele, Richard G | SVP - General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 437.77 | 158 | 69,168 | 1,007,256 | Form |
| 5 | Phillips, Jason D | Chief Acctg Off & Controller | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 472.61 | 333 | 157,437 | 991,512 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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