Moodys (MCO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $492.36 | Market Cap: $88.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Moodys (MCO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $492.36Market Cap: $88.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Moody's (MCO) experienced a slight decline of approximately 3.3% in its stock price during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement occurred amidst a backdrop of generally positive company performance and analyst sentiment.
Here are the key points regarding this stock movement:
1. MCO Underperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
While Moody's stock declined by 3.7% over the past three months (which includes the requested period), the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 4.6% during the same timeframe, indicating an underperformance by MCO.
2. Mixed Analyst Price Targets and Ratings.
As of December 4, 2025, Moody's held a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from analysts, with an average 12-month price target of $543.07, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 11.3%. However, individual price targets ranged from a low of $471.00 to a high of $620.00. Some analysts, like Stifel Nicolaus, reduced their price objective during this period, from $526.00 to $471.00.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCO Return | 23% | 36% | -28% | 42% | 22% | 4% | 117% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 39% | -22% | 32% | 18% | 4% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCO Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 37% | 63% | 62% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCO Max Drawdown | -30% | -9% | -39% | -1% | -6% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -5% | -32% | -8% | -6% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BLK, SPGI, CBOE, MORN, CME. See MCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 579 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 378.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1821 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BLK, SPGI, CBOE, MORN, CME
In The Past
Moodys's stock fell -42.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -42.2% loss requires a 72.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Moodys Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Moodys Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| With MCO Down 5.8% in a Day, Is It Time to Compare It Against CME? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Moodys vs Visa: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Moodys vs CME: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than MCO Stock: Pay Less Than Moodys To Get More From GOOGL, META | |||
| Better Bet Than MCO Stock: Pay Less Than Moodys To Get More From HLNE, FOUR | |||
| MCO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Moodys vs. Large Cap Stocks: Which Is A Better Investment? | Investment Theme Comparisons | ||
| Moodys Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 22.9% in 2024 and 8.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| With MCO Down 5.8% in a Day, Is It Time to Compare It Against CME? | September 19th, 2025 | ||
| MCO Dropped 7.0% In A Week. Have You Fully Evaluated The Risk? | September 19th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312022 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 25.4% | 41.5% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.8% | 29.4% | -13.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312022 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 25.4% | 41.5% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | MCO | Moodys | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.8% | 29.4% | -13.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Moodys
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moody’s Analytics (MA) | 3,069 | 2,777 | 2,413 | 2,086 | 1,963 |
| Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) | 3,046 | 2,873 | 3,977 | 3,440 | 3,009 |
| Eliminations | -199 | -182 | -172 | -155 | -143 |
| Total | 5,916 | 5,468 | 6,218 | 5,371 | 4,829 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) | 1,557 | 1,342 | 2,403 | 1,964 | 1,633 |
| Moody’s Analytics (MA) | 580 | 541 | 441 | 424 | 365 |
| Total | 2,137 | 1,883 | 2,844 | 2,388 | 1,998 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |