MSCI (MSCI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $560.9 | Market Cap: $42.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
MSCI (MSCI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $560.9Market Cap: $42.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 54% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 35x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Key risksMSCI key risks include [1] an active securities fraud investigation following a significant profit drop and [2] a sharp deceleration in revenue growth for its key ESG and Climate Solutions segment. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include ESG Investing & Green Bonds, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 54% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include ESG Investing & Green Bonds, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 35x |
| Key risksMSCI key risks include [1] an active securities fraud investigation following a significant profit drop and [2] a sharp deceleration in revenue growth for its key ESG and Climate Solutions segment. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the -0.9% movement of MSCI stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. MSCI's Q3 2025 earnings reported a slight revenue miss. While the company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.47 beat analyst estimates, its quarterly revenue of $793.43 million was slightly below the consensus estimate of $794.87 million. This minor revenue underperformance may have contributed to a tempering of investor sentiment.
2. Lingering investor concerns after Q2 2025. Despite MSCI reporting better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter of 2025, its stock saw an 8.1% decline in pre-market trading in July 2025. This was attributed to investor concerns over the company's future outlook and broader market conditions, which could have continued to exert some downward pressure into the requested period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSCI Return | 74% | 38% | -23% | 23% | 7% | -7% | 127% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 39% | -27% | 31% | 15% | -12% | 75% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSCI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 63% | 38% | 65% | 55% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSCI Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -38% | -1% | -21% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -8% | -36% | -7% | -8% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SPGI, MCO, FDS, MORN, ICE. See MSCI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BLK, SPGI, MCO, FDS, SNEX
In The Past
MSCI's stock fell -43.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -43.9% loss requires a 78.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| MSCI Earnings Notes | |||
| Better Bet Than MSCI Stock: SPGI Delivers More | Actionable | ||
| How Low Can MSCI Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| MSCI vs CME: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does MSCI Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than MSCI Stock: Pay Less Than MSCI To Get More From IBKR, JEF | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for MSCI Stock with 5.8% Return (vs. -6.5% YTD) [7/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| MSCI Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 8.5% in 2024 and 1.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| MSCI (MSCI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| MSCI (MSCI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| MSCI Stock Near Crucial Support – Buy Signal? | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| Better Value & Growth: SPGI Leads MSCI Stock | October 29th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: REGN, MSCI, UPS | Losers: ARE, ZBRA, EG | October 29th, 2025 | ||
| MSCI Testing Price Floor: Time to Load Up? | September 4th, 2025 | ||
| MSCI Stock Up 5.8% after 5-Day Win Streak | July 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | MSCI | MSCI | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.6% | 1.6% | -3.8% |
| 04302022 | MSCI | MSCI | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.2% | 15.7% | -10.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | MSCI | MSCI | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.6% | 1.6% | -3.8% |
| 04302022 | MSCI | MSCI | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 13.2% | 15.7% | -10.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MSCI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 397.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 66.1 |
| Rev LTM | 5,278 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,471 |
| FCF LTM | 1,893 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,720 |
| CFO LTM | 2,117 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,925 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 39.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 32.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 66.1 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | 22.0 |
| P/E | 33.6 |
| P/CFO | 23.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 1,452 | 1,303 | 1,252 | 1,016 | 921 |
| Analytics | 616 | 576 | 544 | 514 | 497 |
| Sustainability and Climate | 288 | 228 | 166 | 111 | |
| All Other - Private Assets | 174 | 141 | 81 | 54 | |
| All Other | 140 | ||||
| Total | 2,529 | 2,249 | 2,044 | 1,695 | 1,558 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 1,107 | 985 | 951 | 766 | 670 |
| Analytics | 275 | 248 | 199 | 173 | 152 |
| Sustainability and Climate | 92 | 61 | 30 | 23 | |
| All Other - Private Assets | 49 | 35 | 17 | 9 | |
| Impairment related to sublease of leased property | -0 | 0 | -8 | ||
| Acquisition-related integration and transaction costs | -2 | -4 | -7 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization of property, equipment and leasehold improvements | -21 | -27 | -29 | -30 | -30 |
| Amortization of intangible assets | -114 | -91 | -81 | -57 | -49 |
| 2016 Multi-Year PSUs grant payroll tax expense | -15 | ||||
| All Other | 28 | ||||
| Total | 1,385 | 1,208 | 1,073 | 885 | 756 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| 7/22/2025 | -8.9% | -4.4% | -1.4% |
| 4/22/2025 | 0.9% | 0.3% | 7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | -5.6% | -7.0% | -7.2% |
| 10/29/2024 | -2.7% | -1.0% | 1.4% |
| 7/23/2024 | 7.9% | 7.2% | 11.6% |
| 4/23/2024 | -13.4% | -7.4% | -1.5% |
| 1/30/2024 | 9.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -5.6% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 13.8% | 22.3% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -11.3% | -15.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |