Newegg Commerce (NEGG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.98 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Newegg Commerce (NEGG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.98Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 44% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Specialized Technology Commerce, and Digital Infrastructure Enablement. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1113%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 558% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 5059% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2081% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Specialized Technology Commerce, and Digital Infrastructure Enablement. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1113%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 558% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 5059% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2081% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NEGG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Newegg Commerce (NEGG) stock moved by 81.6% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong First Half 2025 Financial Performance and Positive Outlook: Newegg's Q2 2025 earnings report, released just before the start of this period on August 21, 2025, demonstrated significant year-over-year growth. The company reported a 12.6% increase in net sales to $695.7 million and a 13.7% rise in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) to $849.1 million. Gross profit also saw a substantial increase of 26.5%, and the net loss was significantly reduced, with adjusted EBITDA improving from a negative to a positive figure. This strong performance, driven by demand for GPUs and CPUs following new product launches, set a positive market sentiment for the ensuing months.
2. Significant Insider Confidence through Major Share Acquisitions: Insider transactions by Vladimir Galkin in July and August 2025 demonstrated strong confidence in Newegg's prospects. His acquisition of 416,799 shares for approximately $12.37 million in August 2025 and an additional 222,222 shares for about $6.397 million in July 2025, significantly boosted investor confidence and exceeded the specified $5 million threshold for inclusion as an explanatory factor.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEGG Return | 53% | 150% | -87% | -4% | -69% | 786% | 29% |
| Peers Return | 32% | 23% | -11% | 17% | -1% | 13% | 90% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEGG Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 27% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 39% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEGG Max Drawdown | -6% | 0% | -89% | -59% | -69% | -97% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -7% | -19% | -10% | -8% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MELI, M, BBBY, BGO, SBDS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEGG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12403.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 646 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -89.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 806.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 477 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -90.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 955.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 554 days | 120 days |
Compare to MELI, M, BBBY, BGO, SBDS
In The Past
Newegg Commerce's stock fell -99.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/7/2021. A -99.2% loss requires a 12403.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEGG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Newegg Commerce
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,603 |
| Op Inc LTM | -39 |
| FCF LTM | 135 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 206 |
| CFO LTM | 141 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 700 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -17.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 0.4 |
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/CFO | 2.2 |
| Total Yield | -10.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 101.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 43.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 105.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 86.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 31.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 55.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8212025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4282025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8292024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4242024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12222023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8292023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4272023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12012022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8302022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4282022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11222021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8272021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 6302020 | 11152021 | 6-K/A 6/30/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |