National CineMedia (NCMI)
Market Price (8/17/2026): $2.86 | Market Cap: $268.0 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
National CineMedia (NCMI)
Market Price (8/17/2026): $2.86Market Cap: $268.0 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 7.2% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Digital Out-of-Home Advertising. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -97%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.1% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 24.18 Key risksNCMI key risks include [1] its challenging financial recovery following a 2023 Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing and [2] a business model entirely dependent on movie theater attendance levels. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Digital Out-of-Home Advertising. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -97%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 24.18 |
| Key risksNCMI key risks include [1] its challenging financial recovery following a 2023 Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing and [2] a business model entirely dependent on movie theater attendance levels. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
National CineMedia (NCMI) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Missed Expectations and Reported a Wider Loss.
National CineMedia reported total revenue of $58.4 million for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 2, 2026, falling short of analyst expectations of $59.52 million. The company also posted a net loss of $0.11 per diluted share, significantly wider than the anticipated loss of $0.04 per share.
2. Suspension of Dividend Payments to Fund Debt-Financed Acquisition.
The company announced the acquisition of Captivate for $275 million, to be financed entirely through new term debt, leading to an expected net leverage of approximately 3.9 times at closing. In connection with this increase in leverage, National CineMedia paused its quarterly dividend program, a move that contributed to a sharp decline in the stock price.
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National CineMedia (NCMI) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Missed Expectations and Reported a Wider Loss.
National CineMedia reported total revenue of $58.4 million for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 2, 2026, falling short of analyst expectations of $59.52 million. The company also posted a net loss of $0.11 per diluted share, significantly wider than the anticipated loss of $0.04 per share.
2. Suspension of Dividend Payments to Fund Debt-Financed Acquisition.
The company announced the acquisition of Captivate for $275 million, to be financed entirely through new term debt, leading to an expected net leverage of approximately 3.9 times at closing. In connection with this increase in leverage, National CineMedia paused its quarterly dividend program, a move that contributed to a sharp decline in the stock price.
3. Moderating Advertising Yields Despite Strong Box Office Performance and Shift in Advertising Budgets.
Despite a 19% year-over-year increase in attendance across its network during fiscal Q2 2026 and a strong domestic box office, advertising utilization moderated in June. This was attributed to a higher concentration of R-rated horror films, which are typically more challenging to monetize, and a reallocation of some domestic advertising budgets towards the FIFA World Cup 2026.
4. Suspension of Forward Guidance Created Investor Uncertainty.
National CineMedia withheld its forward financial guidance, citing the pending Captivate acquisition and potential partial-period reporting complications during fiscal Q3 2026. This lack of future outlook likely contributed to investor apprehension regarding the company's near-term performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.8% change in NCMI stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.36 | 2.86 | -14.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 243 | 249 | 2.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.1 | -16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 94 | 94 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -14.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | -0.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.1% | 26.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.3% change in NCMI stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.54 | 2.86 | -19.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 236 | 249 | 5.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.1 | -23.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 94 | 94 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -19.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.5% | 12.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -5.6% | 29.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.5% change in NCMI stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.65 | 2.86 | -38.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 238 | 249 | 4.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 1.1 | -42.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 95 | 94 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -38.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -38.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.9% | 18.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 6.2% | 30.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.8% change in NCMI stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.21 | 2.86 | -10.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 248 | 249 | 0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 1.1 | 472.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 94 | -84.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -10.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 69.4% | 24.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCMI Return | -20% | -92% | 88% | 60% | -40% | -30% | -92% |
| Peers Return | 273% | -49% | 13% | 24% | 6% | 38% | 290% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCMI Win Rate | 50% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 17% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 37% | 48% | 55% | 48% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCMI Max Drawdown | -57% | -93% | -70% | -25% | -45% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -58% | -51% | -28% | -39% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CNK, AMC, LAMR, OUT, CCO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NCMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 31 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 424 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -14.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 123 days |
In The Past
National CineMedia's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NCMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 31 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 424 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 362.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1815 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 47 days |
In The Past
National CineMedia's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About National CineMedia (NCMI)
National CineMedia (NCMI) operates as a prominent cinema advertising network throughout North America. The company specializes in connecting advertisers with movie audiences through various platforms, primarily leveraging the captive environment of movie theaters. Essentially, NCMI helps national, regional, and local businesses reach consumers directly before, during, and after their movie-going experience.
The company's main products and services revolve around its "Noovie" brand. This includes the "Noovie" pre-show, an advertising and entertainment program displayed on movie screens before feature films. Beyond the main screen, NCMI sells advertising space on its "Lobby Entertainment Network"—strategically placed screens in theater lobbies—and offers other promotional opportunities within these public areas. Extending its reach digitally, NCMI also provides online and mobile advertising through its "Noovie Audience Accelerator" product, alongside a suite of "Noovie" digital properties like Noovie Shuffle and Noovie Trivia, aimed at engaging entertainment audiences beyond the physical theater.
NCMI's primary customers are businesses of all sizes looking to advertise, from large national brands to local enterprises, all seeking to tap into the entertainment demographic. The company delivers these advertising services by forming long-term network affiliate agreements with numerous third-party theater circuits across North America, which serve as the venues for its extensive advertising network.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for National CineMedia (NCMI):
- Lamar Advertising for movie theaters: Like Lamar Advertising sells ad space on billboards and other out-of-home displays, National CineMedia sells advertising on screens within movie theaters (pre-shows and lobby displays).
- Spotify for movie pre-show advertising: Similar to how Spotify sells ads that play before or during free music and podcasts, National CineMedia sells ads that run during its "Noovie" pre-show entertainment segment before movies and across its digital properties, reaching entertainment audiences.
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- Noovie Cinema Advertising: Sells advertising slots displayed during the "Noovie" pre-show on movie screens within its cinema advertising network.
- Lobby Entertainment Network Advertising: Provides advertising opportunities on screens and other promotional spaces located in movie theater lobbies.
- Noovie Digital Advertising: Offers online and mobile advertising solutions through its "Noovie Audience Accelerator" product and a suite of Noovie digital entertainment properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
National CineMedia (NCMI) sells primarily to other companies.
Its major customers are businesses that purchase advertising space and services across its cinema network, Lobby Entertainment Network, and digital properties. Based on the company description, these customers can be categorized as:
- National businesses: Large corporations and brands seeking to reach a broad audience across NCMI's advertising network throughout North America.
- Regional businesses: Companies operating within specific geographic regions that aim to target audiences in those areas through NCMI's advertising platforms.
- Local businesses: Smaller, community-based enterprises looking to reach local moviegoers and digital entertainment audiences within their immediate vicinities.
The provided company description does not name specific customer companies that purchase advertising from NCMI.
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- AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: AMC)
- Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: CNK)
- Cineworld Group plc (Symbol: CINE)
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Thomas F. Lesinski, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas F. Lesinski was appointed Chief Executive Officer of National CineMedia in August 2019, having previously served as Chairman of the Board since August 2018 and an independent Director since December 2014. From 2015 to 2019, he was the CEO of Sonar Entertainment, a television production company, after serving as a Board Director since 2013. Mr. Lesinski also founded and served as CEO of Energi Entertainment. His extensive 25-year career in Hollywood includes leadership positions such as President of Digital Content & Distribution with Legendary Entertainment, President of Paramount Pictures Digital Entertainment, President of Worldwide Home Entertainment for Paramount, and Executive Vice President and General Manager of Home Entertainment, as well as Executive Vice President, Worldwide Marketing & Development at Warner Bros. He began his career in advertising, working at firms like BBDO, Foote, Cone & Belding, and Clairol Inc. Mr. Lesinski holds a bachelor's degree in Journalism and a master's degree in Advertising from Northwestern University.
Ronnie Ng, Chief Financial Officer
Ronnie Ng joined National CineMedia as Chief Financial Officer in September 2021. With two decades of experience in finance, investment banking, accounting, and management, Mr. Ng previously held the position of CFO and head of corporate development at Allen Media Group, LLC (AMG), a diversified media and entertainment company. At AMG, he was responsible for the company's finance organization and oversaw numerous large-scale acquisitions and the refinancing of its capital structure. Prior to AMG, Mr. Ng was a Vice President in the fixed income group for TCW Group, Inc., where he evaluated investments in the media and technology sectors, including corporate bonds, high-yield bonds, and leveraged loans. He also spent approximately 10 years as an investment banker, serving as an executive director in UBS Investment Bank's Global Media Group, where he managed and structured various financings and merger and acquisition transactions. His earlier experience includes roles at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Houlihan Lokey, Inc., and Arthur Andersen LLP. Mr. Ng earned a Bachelor of Science degree in finance from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Maria Woods, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Maria Woods rejoined National CineMedia as Executive Vice President and General Counsel in September 2021, having previously served in key leadership roles on NCM's legal team from 2010 to 2015, rising to EVP and General Counsel of National CineMedia, LLC. Before her return to NCM, she was General Counsel and Secretary at JumpCloud, Inc., providing strategic legal counsel for the company's SaaS identity management business, which encompassed corporate governance, merger and acquisition activities, financing, and commercial contracting. Ms. Woods also served as Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary at ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., General Counsel for Lucky's Market, Associate General Counsel at Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc., and Assistant General Counsel at Sun Microsystems, Inc. She began her legal career as an associate at Holme Roberts & Owen (now Bryan Cave), working on public and private equity offerings. Notably, her experience includes completing several securities offerings during her previous tenure at NCM and supporting the 2013 sale of the Fathom business division. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Communications Studies from the University of Iowa and a Juris Doctorate from the University of Denver Sturm College of Law.
Mike Rosen, Chief Revenue Officer
Mike Rosen serves as the Chief Revenue Officer of National CineMedia.
Adam Johnson, Senior Vice President, Operations And Technology
Adam Johnson holds the position of Senior Vice President, Operations And Technology at National CineMedia.
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Key Risks to National CineMedia (NCMI)
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Declining Movie Theater Attendance: National CineMedia's core business is selling advertising primarily within movie theaters. A sustained decline in movie theater attendance directly reduces the reach and value of their advertising network, impacting their ability to attract advertisers and generate revenue. Factors such as competition from streaming services, rising ticket prices, and economic downturns can contribute to reduced patronage.
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Increased Competition from Digital Advertising and Shifting Media Consumption: The advertising landscape is highly competitive, with a significant shift towards digital platforms offering highly targeted and measurable advertising solutions. As consumers increasingly engage with content on streaming services, social media, and other digital channels, advertisers may reallocate their budgets away from traditional cinema advertising towards these platforms, challenging NCMI's market share and pricing power.
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Changes in Film Release Strategies: A fundamental shift in how major studios release films, such as shorter theatrical windows or more direct-to-streaming premieres, could further erode the exclusivity and event nature of the cinema experience. This could accelerate declines in movie theater attendance and diminish the perceived value of cinema as a premier advertising medium for businesses targeting entertainment audiences.
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The clear emerging threat to National CineMedia is the ongoing and accelerating shift in media consumption habits, particularly the rise of streaming services and alternative film distribution models that diminish the exclusivity and importance of the theatrical experience. This trend directly impacts cinema attendance, thereby reducing the audience reach and value of NCMI's core cinema advertising network and its Lobby Entertainment Network.
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National CineMedia's addressable markets for its main products and services are sized as follows:
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Cinema Advertising Network (Noovie pre-show on movie screens): The global cinema advertising market is valued at approximately $4.9 billion in 2025. While a specific North American cinema advertising market size for 2025 was not explicitly available, North America is noted for sustaining high revenue levels within the overall cinema market through upgrades and premium formats.
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Lobby Entertainment Network (strategically-placed screens in movie theater lobbies): Null
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Online and mobile advertising (Noovie Audience Accelerator, Noovie digital properties): The addressable market for online and mobile advertising targeting entertainment audiences in North America is estimated to be approximately $33.68 billion in 2025. This is derived from the North American online advertising market, which is projected to be around $129.56 billion in 2025 (approximately 36% of the global online advertising market of $359.88 billion), with the Media & Entertainment sector accounting for about 26% of that market share.
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National CineMedia (NCMI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Increased Monetization of Advertising Inventory and Premium Placements: National CineMedia is focused on optimizing its existing advertising inventory, as evidenced by a 10% increase in national revenue per attendee in Q4 2025. This growth is driven by robust advertiser demand and expanded utilization of premium and post-show placements. The company's strategies aim to enhance monetization per attendee.
- Expansion of Programmatic and Self-Serve Advertising Platforms: The company is seeing significant growth in programmatic advertising, with revenue doubling year-over-year in Q4 2025 and the number of programmatic advertisers increasing 2.4 times. Similarly, self-serve platform revenue grew by 64% year-over-year, supported by investments in generative AI-enabled creative tools that enhance accessibility and turnaround for advertisers. This makes cinema advertising easier to access and is a key driver for both national and local demand.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Network Expansion: Acquisitions, such as the Spotlight acquisition in 2025, are contributing to revenue growth by broadening NCM's reach with new high-end luxury networks. This strategy diversifies the company's appeal to new advertisers.
- Rebounding Cinema Attendance and Strong Film Slates: Future revenue growth is also anticipated from a strong upcoming film slate and a rebound in cinema attendance. Increased attendance directly correlates with higher advertiser interest and engagement, which is fundamental for a cinema advertising platform.
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Share Repurchases
- National CineMedia authorized a new share repurchase program in March 2024, permitting the purchase of up to $100 million of its common stock through April 1, 2027. The company also plans to accelerate share repurchases under this program.
- In 2025, National CineMedia repurchased 4.1 million shares for approximately $22.3 million at an average price of $5.41 per share.
- As of February 2026, a total of 6.6 million shares have been bought back and retired under the $100 million authorization.
Share Issuance
- As part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, which concluded in August 2023, National CineMedia, Inc. issued 83,421,135 shares to secured creditors with a fair value of $245.3 million.
- A one-for-ten reverse stock split of its common stock was effected on August 3, 2023.
Outbound Investments
- National CineMedia acquired Spotlight Cinema Networks on November 14, 2025, for $8.4 million. This acquisition included $7.1 million in cash and a $1.3 million contingent payment.
- The acquisition of Spotlight Cinema Networks is expected to enhance NCMI's platform with high-end luxury screens, increasing its national market share by approximately 6% and expanding its theater presence by 30% in key markets.
Capital Expenditures
- National CineMedia's capital expenditures were -$5.6 million for the fiscal year ending January 1, 2026 (fiscal year 2025), -$5.8 million in 2024, and -$3.3 million in 2023.
- Capital expenditures primarily focus on digital applications, capitalized software development for systems like audience targeting, data management, and cinema advertising, as well as equipment for content production and office improvements.
- The company continues to invest capital to grow its advertising network through strategic initiatives, including new innovations such as programmatic and self-serve offerings.
Peer Outperformance in Advertising
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCMI | National CineMedia | 8.4% | -35.3x | -33.0% | -14.6% | -87.3% | — |
| STGW | Stagwell | 5.1% | 138.5x | 64.0% | 79.9% | 37.1% | +124pp |
| MGNI | Magnite | 7.1% | 21.2x | 4.3% | 209.1% | -5.6% | +82pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | 7.2% | 40.0% | 35.7% | ECHO 272% · TMUS 36% · SHEN -53% |
| Publishing | 5 | 28.2% | 6.0% | 32.7% | NYT 41% · SCHL 40% · NWSA 33% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 22 | -9.5% | 6.4% | -10.5% | IQST 1781% · GSAT 310% · AD 152% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 23 | 15.6% | 90.1% | -18.6% | IMAX 266% · MSGS 174% · SPHR 170% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | 54.4% | 21.2% | -37.8% | IRDM 37% · UNIT -38% · LUMN -38% |
| Advertising ← | 18 | -4.6% | -10.2% | -54.8% | APP 404% · EVC 73% · OMC 40% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | 4.0% | -10.4% | -59.7% | FOXA 99% · NXST 55% · WBD -2% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 31 | -24.5% | -33.6% | -67.4% | GOOGL 155% · AREN 117% · META 66% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -35.1% | -45.3% | -87.8% | TTWO 51% · RBLX -51% · PINS -57% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| National CineMedia Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Can National CineMedia Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,130 |
| Op Inc LTM | 355 |
| FCF LTM | 188 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 122 |
| CFO LTM | 305 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 214 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 29.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.86 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/08/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.72 | $3.61 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -23.2% | -20.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 107.2% | 64.8% |
| Downside Capture | -126.32 | 96.64 |
| Upside Capture | -83.87 | 28.49 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.9% | 17.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.27 | -0.37 | -0.24 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Up Beta | -2.25 | -1.63 | -0.75 | 0.25 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Down Beta | 1.93 | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 1.05 | 1.00 |
| Up Capture | 4% | 42% | -5% | 69% | 55% | 44% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 33 | 63 | 116 | 350 |
| Down Capture | -84% | -133% | -123% | 62% | 101% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 17 | 24 | 51 | 115 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -36.0% | 64.6% | -0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 2.7% | 15.0% | -0.03 | 30.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.5% | 12.8% | 1.25 | 17.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 30.0% | 28.5% | 0.91 | 0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.1% | 20.1% | 1.49 | -6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.9% | 0.73 | 14.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -49.1% | 42.8% | -1.45 | 14.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -36.6% | 94.4% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.5% | 20.9% | 0.27 | 23.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 22.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.5% | 18.6% | 0.85 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.6% | 0.38 | 4.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.0% | 52.8% | 0.34 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCMI | -28.8% | 82.8% | -0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.3% | 22.2% | 0.47 | 25.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 25.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.2% | 0.60 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.7% | 18.0% | 0.34 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 24.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.1% | 1.00 | 8.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -41.4% | ||
| 5/12/2026 | -11.8% | -11.8% | 7.0% |
| 2/26/2026 | 1.4% | -0.3% | -12.7% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.3% | 2.4% | -4.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -11.6% | -8.8% | -12.6% |
| 3/6/2025 | -17.8% | -10.1% | -9.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -10.5% | -7.4% | -2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 23.9% | 12.2% |
| Median Negative | -10.5% | -8.2% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 114.6% | 69.8% | 97.2% |
| Max Negative | -41.4% | -25.4% | -35.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -41.4% | ||
| 5/12/2026 | -11.8% | -11.8% | 7.0% |
| 2/26/2026 | 1.4% | -0.3% | -12.7% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.3% | 2.4% | -4.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -11.6% | -8.8% | -12.6% |
| 3/6/2025 | -17.8% | -10.1% | -9.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -10.5% | -7.4% | -2.6% |
| 8/5/2024 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 28.8% |
| 5/6/2024 | -4.6% | -6.2% | 5.4% |
| 3/18/2024 | 19.9% | 26.8% | 5.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% |
| 4/12/2023 | 114.6% | 69.8% | 53.9% |
| 11/7/2022 | 26.2% | 35.6% | -9.7% |
| 8/8/2022 | -21.6% | -2.2% | -35.9% |
| 5/9/2022 | -16.3% | -25.4% | -31.6% |
| 3/3/2022 | -8.9% | -8.2% | -13.3% |
| 11/8/2021 | -4.6% | -3.9% | -27.0% |
| 8/9/2021 | -2.6% | -12.0% | -15.2% |
| 5/10/2021 | -3.0% | 1.8% | 17.5% |
| 3/8/2021 | -2.7% | 23.9% | -4.2% |
| 11/2/2020 | 3.4% | 45.1% | 97.2% |
| 8/3/2020 | 7.9% | 25.8% | 33.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 23.9% | 12.2% |
| Median Negative | -10.5% | -8.2% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 114.6% | 69.8% | 97.2% |
| Max Negative | -41.4% | -25.4% | -35.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/03/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/12/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Annual run-rate cost synergies | 3.50 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 57.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 63.00 Mil | 73.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 34.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted OIBDA | 1.00 Mil | 3.00 Mil | 5.00 Mil | -126.1% | Higher New | Guidance: -11.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Annualized Cost Savings | 11.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Realized Cost Savings | 6.00 Mil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 32.50 Mil | 34.50 Mil | 36.50 Mil | -63.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 94.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted OIBDA | -13.00 Mil | -11.50 Mil | -10.00 Mil | -135.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 32.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 91.00 Mil | 94.50 Mil | 98.00 Mil | 46.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 64.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted OIBDA | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 242.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 4.05 | 1,000 | 4,050 | 826,585 | Form |
| 2 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 4.18 | 50,623 | 211,766 | 2,303,525 | Form |
| 3 | Woods, Maria VG | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 3.77 | 12,058 | 45,488 | 615,512 | Form |
| 4 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 3.77 | 32,328 | 121,954 | 773,700 | Form |
| 5 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 3.77 | 70,168 | 264,702 | 1,987,014 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 4.05 | 1,000 | 4,050 | 826,585 | Form |
| 2 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 4.18 | 50,623 | 211,766 | 2,303,525 | Form |
| 3 | Woods, Maria VG | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 3.77 | 12,058 | 45,488 | 615,512 | Form |
| 4 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 3.77 | 32,328 | 121,954 | 773,700 | Form |
| 5 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 3.77 | 70,168 | 264,702 | 1,987,014 | Form |
| 6 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 3.62 | 28,900 | 104,618 | 1,786,684 | Form |
| 7 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 3.55 | 46,100 | 163,692 | 1,855,147 | Form |
| 8 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 3.42 | 19,000 | 64,948 | 634,973 | Form |
| 9 | Woods, Maria VG | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 3.45 | 5,509 | 18,986 | 514,847 | Form |
| 10 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 3.45 | 12,925 | 44,545 | 705,675 | Form |
| 11 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 3.45 | 20,181 | 69,552 | 1,959,482 | Form |
| 12 | Woods, Maria VG | EVP - General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.04 | 12,066 | 36,681 | 435,015 | Form |
| 13 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.04 | 32,350 | 98,344 | 598,980 | Form |
| 14 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.04 | 64,699 | 196,685 | 1,699,454 | Form |
| 15 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 3.55 | 31,106 | 110,426 | 1,847,409 | Form |
| 16 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 3.89 | 37,847 | 147,225 | 1,951,990 | Form |
| 17 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 3.89 | 20,991 | 81,655 | 691,319 | Form |
| 18 | Woods, Maria VG | EVP - General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 3.89 | 9,043 | 35,177 | 503,094 | Form |
| 19 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 3.89 | 21,194 | 82,440 | 622,205 | Form |
| 20 | Sullivan, Catherine | President - Sales & Marketing | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 4.31 | 734 | 3,162 | 110,880 | Form |
| 21 | Woods, Maria VG | EVP - General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 4.44 | 9,039 | 40,162 | 528,732 | Form |
| 22 | Sullivan, Catherine | President - Sales & Marketing | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 4.44 | 1,835 | 8,153 | 117,616 | Form |
| 23 | Ng, Ronnie Y | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 4.44 | 20,938 | 93,032 | 804,895 | Form |
| 24 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 4.44 | 37,834 | 168,104 | 2,053,398 | Form |
| 25 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9292025 | 4.68 | 30,971 | 145,087 | 1,979,140 | Form |
| 26 | Woods, Maria VG | EVP - General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 9182025 | 5.00 | 2,584 | 12,923 | 543,419 | Form |
| 27 | Sullivan, Catherine | President - Sales & Marketing | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 4.19 | 734 | 3,075 | 98,612 | Form |
| 28 | Hill, Juliana F | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 4.44 | 13,372 | 59,401 | 179,309 | Form | |
| 29 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 4.67 | 3,862 | 18,049 | 2,119,239 | Form |
| 30 | Lesinski, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 4.65 | 36,393 | 169,344 | 2,091,148 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 17, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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