Tearsheet

National CineMedia (NCMI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.16 | Market Cap: $389.8 Mil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising

National CineMedia (NCMI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.16
Market Cap: $389.8 Mil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Advertising

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.5%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.8%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.49
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Digital Out-of-Home Advertising.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Digital Out-of-Home Advertising.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.49
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.5%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NCMI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. **Lower-than-Expected Q2 2025 Revenue:** National CineMedia reported its second-quarter 2025 revenue on August 5, 2025, which came in at $51.80 million, falling below the analyst consensus estimate of $59.45 million. This revenue miss likely contributed to downward pressure on the stock following the announcement.

2. **Ex-Dividend Date Impact:** On August 15, 2025, National CineMedia shares traded ex-dividend, meaning investors purchasing the stock on or after this date were not entitled to the $0.03 dividend per share. Ex-dividend dates often result in a corresponding decrease in the stock's price, reflecting the payout.

3. **Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Audience Decline:** The company's third-quarter 2025 financial results, reported on October 30, 2025, revealed a modest 2% increase in total revenue but also a decline in audience numbers. The stock experienced a slight decline of 2.17% to $4.14 on the day of the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about the audience trend despite revenue growth.

4. **Executive Leadership Change:** Catherine Sullivan, President of Sales, Marketing and Partnerships, departed from National CineMedia on November 13, 2025. Her departure was classified as an "Involuntary Termination," which can signal instability or strategic shifts within the company and lead to investor apprehension.

5. **Stock Reaching 52-Week Low:** Around November 18, 2025, NCMI's stock was trading near its 52-week low of $3.81, having already experienced a 40.2% decline year-to-date. This sustained negative performance leading into and within the specified period indicates a broader bearish sentiment and ongoing challenges impacting the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NCMI Return-44%-20%-92%88%60%-36%-93%
Peers Return  -34%67%-48%-44%-68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NCMI Win Rate58%50%17%50%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate 62%50%58%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NCMI Max Drawdown-74%-31%-92%-52%-10%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown  -45%-1%-56%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNCMIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5604.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-80.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven403.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-65.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven192.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-81.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven453.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP


In The Past

National CineMedia's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5604.8% gain to breakeven.

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About National CineMedia (NCMI)

Better Bets than National CineMedia (NCMI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NCMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for National CineMedia

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NCMIDVEVONKASHLIAIOCPMedian
NameNational.DoubleVe.EvoNexus Cansince.Lemeng Huge Amo. 
Mkt Price4.1410.82----7.48
Mkt Cap0.41.8----1.1
Rev LTM236733----485
Op Inc LTM-1880----31
FCF LTM24141----82
FCF 3Y Avg10123----67
CFO LTM31176----103
CFO 3Y Avg14151----83

Growth & Margins

NCMIDVEVONKASHLIAIOCPMedian
NameNational.DoubleVe.EvoNexus Cansince.Lemeng Huge Amo. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.6%14.9%----5.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.4%20.1%----13.2%
Rev Chg Q1.6%11.2%----6.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%2.7%----1.5%
Op Mgn LTM-7.5%10.9%----1.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-9.1%12.7%----1.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%-0.9%----0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM12.9%24.0%----18.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.9%23.6%----13.7%
FCF/Rev LTM10.3%19.2%----14.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.8%19.2%----10.5%

Valuation

NCMIDVEVONKASHLIAIOCPMedian
NameNational.DoubleVe.EvoNexus Cansince.Lemeng Huge Amo. 
Mkt Cap0.41.8----1.1
P/S1.82.6----2.2
P/EBIT-30.023.0-----3.5
P/E-28.043.4----7.7
P/CFO13.811.0----12.4
Total Yield-3.6%2.3%-----0.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.3%4.7%----2.2%
D/E0.00.1----0.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.1-----0.0

Returns

NCMIDVEVONKASHLIAIOCPMedian
NameNational.DoubleVe.EvoNexus Cansince.Lemeng Huge Amo. 
1M Rtn-7.0%-3.6%-----5.3%
3M Rtn-6.7%-32.2%-----19.5%
6M Rtn-16.8%-26.5%-----21.7%
12M Rtn-41.7%-47.3%-----44.5%
3Y Rtn-10.0%-60.8%-----35.4%
1M Excs Rtn-6.9%-3.5%-----5.2%
3M Excs Rtn-8.3%-34.4%-----21.4%
6M Excs Rtn-31.5%-41.3%-----36.4%
12M Excs Rtn-52.4%-60.3%-----56.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-76.3%-129.7%-----103.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Advertising16524911590445
Total16524911590445


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,232,166
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.3%
Average Daily Volume567,967
Days-to-Cover Short Interest14.49
Basic Shares Quantity93,701,506
Short % of Basic Shares8.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/25/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/26/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/27/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/26/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/26/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/27/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/28/2024
12312023318202410-K 12/28/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/28/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/29/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/30/2023
12312022413202310-K 12/29/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/29/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021303202210-K 12/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ng Ronnie Y.Chief Financial Officer11122025Sell3.8921,19482,440622,205Form