National CineMedia (NCMI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.16 | Market Cap: $389.8 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
National CineMedia (NCMI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.16Market Cap: $389.8 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.5% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.8% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.49 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Digital Out-of-Home Advertising. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Digital Out-of-Home Advertising. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.49 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.5% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NCMI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. **Lower-than-Expected Q2 2025 Revenue:** National CineMedia reported its second-quarter 2025 revenue on August 5, 2025, which came in at $51.80 million, falling below the analyst consensus estimate of $59.45 million. This revenue miss likely contributed to downward pressure on the stock following the announcement.
2. **Ex-Dividend Date Impact:** On August 15, 2025, National CineMedia shares traded ex-dividend, meaning investors purchasing the stock on or after this date were not entitled to the $0.03 dividend per share. Ex-dividend dates often result in a corresponding decrease in the stock's price, reflecting the payout.
3. **Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Audience Decline:** The company's third-quarter 2025 financial results, reported on October 30, 2025, revealed a modest 2% increase in total revenue but also a decline in audience numbers. The stock experienced a slight decline of 2.17% to $4.14 on the day of the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about the audience trend despite revenue growth.
4. **Executive Leadership Change:** Catherine Sullivan, President of Sales, Marketing and Partnerships, departed from National CineMedia on November 13, 2025. Her departure was classified as an "Involuntary Termination," which can signal instability or strategic shifts within the company and lead to investor apprehension.
5. **Stock Reaching 52-Week Low:** Around November 18, 2025, NCMI's stock was trading near its 52-week low of $3.81, having already experienced a 40.2% decline year-to-date. This sustained negative performance leading into and within the specified period indicates a broader bearish sentiment and ongoing challenges impacting the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCMI Return | -44% | -20% | -92% | 88% | 60% | -36% | -93% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 67% | -48% | -44% | -68% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCMI Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCMI Max Drawdown | -74% | -31% | -92% | -52% | -10% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -1% | -56% | -51% | |||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NCMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5604.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 403.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 192.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 453.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP
In The Past
National CineMedia's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5604.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can National CineMedia Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NCMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National CineMedia
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 485 |
| Op Inc LTM | 31 |
| FCF LTM | 82 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 67 |
| CFO LTM | 103 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 83 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | -3.5 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | -0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -44.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -35.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -36.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -56.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -103.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/25/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/26/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/27/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/26/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/26/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/27/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/28/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3182024 | 10-K 12/28/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/28/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/29/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4132023 | 10-K 12/29/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/29/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Ng Ronnie Y. | Chief Financial Officer | 11122025 | Sell | 3.89 | 21,194 | 82,440 | 622,205 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |