Nakamoto (NAKA)
Market Price (2/9/2026): $0.302 | Market Cap: $61.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Nakamoto (NAKA)
Market Price (2/9/2026): $0.302Market Cap: $61.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Medical Cannabis Therapeutics & Clinics, Geriatric Care, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -139%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.3 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -750% | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 305% | ||
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 30x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -40% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 110% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -851%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35284% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 813% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -158% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 209% | ||
| Key risksNAKA key risks include [1] a potential Nasdaq delisting due to its low stock price, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Medical Cannabis Therapeutics & Clinics, Geriatric Care, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -139%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -167% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.3 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -750% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 305% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 30x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -40% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 110% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -851%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35284% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 813% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -158% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 209% |
| Key risksNAKA key risks include [1] a potential Nasdaq delisting due to its low stock price, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Poor Financial Performance and Missed Earnings.
Nakamoto (formerly KindlyMD) reported dismal financial results for Q3 2025 on November 19, 2025, significantly missing analyst expectations. The company announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.42 against an analyst forecast of -$0.01 per share, alongside revenue of $388.2K, falling short of the $400.2K estimate. This indicated substantial losses of $6.1M, further compounded by a forecast for a significant decrease in future earnings.
2. Pressure from Bitcoin-Backed Debt and Collateral Calls.
In November 2025, Nakamoto faced considerable pressure regarding its Bitcoin-backed debt, which was initially structured when Bitcoin (BTC) prices were near their all-time highs. The company was compelled to post additional Bitcoin collateral on at least two occasions to avert liquidation of a $250 million loan from Antalpha. This vulnerability highlighted the risks associated with its treasury strategy and debt leverage. Furthermore, in December 2025, Nakamoto refinanced a $210 million Bitcoin-backed loan with Kraken to pay off the Antalpha loan, pledging no less than $323.4 million worth of Bitcoin as collateral, further tying its fortunes to the cryptocurrency's volatility.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -68.4% change in NAKA stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -96.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.93 | 0.29 | -68.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 2 | -11.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.8 | 30.1 | 965.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7 | 203 | -96.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -68.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NAKA | -68.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.3% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.6% | 39.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -95.9% change in NAKA stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -97.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.22 | 0.29 | -95.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 2 | -19.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 17.6 | 30.1 | 71.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 6 | 203 | -97.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -95.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NAKA | -95.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 17.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.9% | 14.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NAKA | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 6.5% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NAKA | ||
| Market (SPY) | 76.2% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 55.2% | 18.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NAKA Return | - | - | - | - | -98% | -27% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 66% | -84% | 342% | 78% | 9% | -20% | 88% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NAKA Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 31% | 77% | 48% | 58% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NAKA Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -98% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -84% | -5% | -43% | -44% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSTR, MARA, RIOT, COIN, HUT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NAKA has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSTR, MARA, RIOT, COIN, HUT
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Nakamoto (NAKA)
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As there is no widely recognized traditional public company with the name "Nakamoto" and ticker symbol NAKA that trades on major stock exchanges, the following products and services are presented under the assumption of a hypothetical company operating in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector, given the namesake.
- Blockchain Development Platform: Provides tools, APIs, and infrastructure for developers to build and deploy decentralized applications and smart contracts.
- Cryptocurrency Exchange Services: Operates a platform allowing users to securely buy, sell, and trade various cryptocurrencies and digital assets.
- Digital Asset Wallet Solutions: Offers secure software and hardware wallets for storing, managing, and transacting with cryptocurrencies.
- Blockchain Consulting & Enterprise Solutions: Delivers tailored blockchain solutions and advisory services to businesses seeking to integrate decentralized technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Information for a public company named "Nakamoto" with the stock symbol "NAKA" that has identifiable major customers is not available.
A prominent public company with this specific name and stock symbol does not appear to exist in major stock markets. The name "Nakamoto" is primarily associated with the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, rather than a publicly traded corporation with this identifier and an established customer base.
Therefore, it is not possible to identify its major customers or customer categories as requested.
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David Bailey, Chief Executive Officer
David Bailey is the Founder and CEO of Nakamoto. He also founded the private Nakamoto Holdings and BTC Inc., which publishes Bitcoin Magazine and hosts the annual Bitcoin Conference. He co-founded BTC Media in 2014. Bailey is also a general partner at UTXO Management, focused on institutional Bitcoin strategy. He led Nakamoto Holdings through its merger with KindlyMD, Inc. to establish a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury. The merger involved a significant capital raise through a Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) Financing and convertible notes, attracting numerous institutional investors.
Jared Barrera, Chief Financial Officer
Jared Barrera has served as the Chief Financial Officer of KindlyMD since September 28, 2022, and continued in this role after the rebranding to Nakamoto Inc. He brings two decades of finance and accounting expertise, specifically within the healthcare and banking sectors. His experience encompasses revenue optimization, GAAP accounting, budgeting, forecasting, financial modeling, and revenue cycle management. Barrera played a key role in leading KindlyMD through its 2024 Nasdaq IPO. Prior to joining KindlyMD, he was the Director of Finance for Physician Group of Utah from 2015 to 2018 and a Senior Manager of Revenue Cycle & Business Intelligence at Granger Medical Clinic from 2018 to 2022. He holds an MBA with an accounting emphasis (2015) and a BS in Accounting (2011) from Utah Valley University.
Tim Pickett, Chief Medical Officer
Tim Pickett, the former Chief Executive Officer and founder of KindlyMD, transitioned to Chief Medical Officer of the combined company after the merger with Nakamoto Holdings. He continues to oversee KindlyMD's healthcare operations. Pickett led KindlyMD through its Nasdaq IPO in 2024, aiming to address the opioid crisis through integrated healthcare.
Tyler Evans, Chief Investment Officer
Tyler Evans was appointed Chief Investment Officer of Nakamoto in June 2025. He brings over a decade of experience in building Bitcoin-native financial infrastructure. Evans is a Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of UTXO Management, a thesis-driven investment firm focused on the Bitcoin ecosystem. He is also a Co-Founder of BTC Inc., which publishes Bitcoin Magazine and hosts the annual Bitcoin Conference.
Amanda Fabiano, Chief Operating Officer
Amanda Fabiano is a key member of Nakamoto's leadership team, serving as Chief Operating Officer following the merger with KindlyMD.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Nakamoto (NAKA), which recently rebranded from KindlyMD, Inc. to align with its Bitcoin-focused strategy, faces several significant risks. Its business model revolves around accumulating Bitcoin and investing in Bitcoin-native operating businesses, inherently linking its performance to the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.
Here are the key risks to Nakamoto's business:
- Bitcoin Market Volatility: Nakamoto's core strategy exposes it directly to the inherent volatility of the Bitcoin market. Significant declines in Bitcoin's price have already led to a substantial collapse in Nakamoto's stock value, with the stock plummeting below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts have highlighted a "death spiral" risk where falling Bitcoin prices could necessitate sales to cover liquidity needs, further depressing prices and investor confidence. The potential for market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) compression in "risk-off environments" is a known challenge.
- Poor Financial Performance and Liquidity Challenges: The company exhibits "deteriorating fundamentals," characterized by severe financial and operational breakdowns. Nakamoto reported significant negative profit margins and negative operating cash flow in Q3 2025, alongside cumulative net losses over recent quarters. The company's short-term assets do not cover its short-term liabilities, and its free cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing struggles with operational expenses. Analysts have cautioned about "poor profitability" and a "high valuation," labeling NAKA as a "high-volatility, low-protection speculative bet lacking clear turnaround path."
- Regulatory and Accounting Risks for Cryptocurrencies: Given Nakamoto's deep involvement in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, it is highly susceptible to "potential changes in laws or accounting standards relating to cryptocurrency" and broader "regulatory developments affecting Bitcoin or other digital assets." The company's stated aim to help build regulatory frameworks also underscores the evolving and uncertain nature of the regulatory landscape, which could introduce new compliance burdens or restrictions.
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For the public company Nakamoto (symbol: NAKA), the addressable markets for its main products and services, which primarily revolve around Bitcoin capital allocation, Bitcoin-native operating businesses, and providing financial infrastructure for future capital markets, can be identified as follows:
- Global Bitcoin Market: The global Bitcoin market size was valued at USD 27.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 220.3 billion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 26.2% from 2024 to 2033. Another estimate valued the global Bitcoin market at USD 31.67 billion in 2024, with a projection to grow to USD 157.37 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 19.5% from 2026 to 2033.
- Global Institutional Digital Asset Adoption (via Crypto ETPs): Crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) have seen significant institutional adoption globally, with nearly USD 180 billion in total assets under management as of late 2025. These products offer regulated access to digital assets such as Bitcoin.
- Global Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Market: Public companies collectively hold over 1 million Bitcoins, representing 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply. As of November 21, 2025, Bitcoin's total market capitalization was approximately USD 1.65 trillion globally. CoinGecko tracks 164 institutions with total Bitcoin holdings valued at USD 156 billion, accounting for 8.34% of Bitcoin's total supply.
- Global Stablecoin Market (Enterprise Adoption): Industry analysts project the global stablecoin circulation to exceed USD 1 trillion by 2026. This growth is driven by enterprise adoption for purposes such as cross-border payments, real-time settlement, and corporate treasury modernization.
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Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a strategic pivot towards becoming a premier Bitcoin company, as evidenced by its recent rebranding and stated objectives.
- Expansion of Bitcoin Treasury and Capital Allocation: Nakamoto plans to grow its Bitcoin holdings through disciplined accumulation, aiming for a treasury exceeding $500 million, and potentially reaching one million Bitcoin. The appreciation in Bitcoin's value, coupled with strategic deployment of this capital into investments and treasury assets across various international markets, is anticipated to be a significant revenue driver.
- Acquisition and Development of Bitcoin-Native Operating Businesses: The company intends to build a global portfolio of Bitcoin-aligned companies. This strategy involves leveraging its Bitcoin treasury to acquire and develop businesses across sectors such as finance, media, and advisory, thereby introducing new revenue streams and expanding its ecosystem.
- Launch of Products and Services for Institutional Bitcoin Adoption: Nakamoto is focused on developing a comprehensive suite of products and services designed to facilitate the institutional adoption of Bitcoin by corporations and governments. This includes utilizing innovative corporate finance strategies to integrate Bitcoin into global capital markets and establishing itself as a leading platform for Bitcoin treasury management.
- Continued Operations and Growth of Kindly LLC (Healthcare Subsidiary): Although Nakamoto has shifted its primary focus to Bitcoin, its wholly owned healthcare subsidiary, Kindly LLC, will continue its operations. Revenue generated from these healthcare services is expected to contribute to the company's overall growth, albeit likely as a smaller component compared to the Bitcoin-focused initiatives.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Nakamoto Inc. (formerly KindlyMD, Inc.) authorized a share repurchase program of up to $10 million of its common stock.
- The program allows for repurchases through open-market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, block trades, or other legally permissible methods, including Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.
- The timing, amount, and method of any share repurchases are at management's discretion and the program may be modified, suspended, or terminated at any time.
Share Issuance
- In November 2025, Nakamoto established a $5 billion at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program, through which it raised $5.6 million at an average share price of $4.15 per share.
- As of November 14, 2025, shares issued and outstanding were 439,850,889, an increase from 427,152,834 shares as of September 30, 2025.
- In May 2025, as part of its merger with Nakamoto Holdings, KindlyMD raised approximately $540 million (later specified as $563 million) from a private placement in public equity (PIPE) and an additional $200 million through convertible notes.
Inbound Investments
- The merger between KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings in May 2025 was supported by a $710 million capital raise, consisting of a $510 million Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) and $200 million from senior secured convertible notes.
- In June 2025, an additional $51.5 million in PIPE financing was secured, primarily to fund Bitcoin purchases and for general corporate purposes, contributing to a total of approximately $563 million in PIPE financing and $763 million including convertible notes.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2025, Nakamoto invested $6 million in FUTURE Holdings AG, a Bitcoin treasury company located in Switzerland.
- During the third quarter of 2025, the company made two strategic investments in Bitcoin-treasury companies: $15 million in Treasury BV (Netherlands) and $30 million in Metaplanet Inc. (Japan).
- Nakamoto's overarching strategy involves leveraging its Bitcoin treasury to acquire and develop an ecosystem of Bitcoin-native companies across various sectors, including finance, media, and advisory services.
Capital Expenditures
- Nakamoto's primary capital deployment focuses on accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury asset and making strategic investments in other Bitcoin-focused companies.
- As of September 30, 2025, the company had purchased a cumulative amount of 5,765 Bitcoin for approximately $681 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Kindly MD Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Can Kindly MD Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 653 |
| Op Inc LTM | -28 |
| FCF LTM | -1,037 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -519 |
| CFO LTM | -83 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -47 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 49.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 37.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 73.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -29.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -52.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -200.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -165.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/CFO | -6.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -19.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -45.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -46.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -45.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 166.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -49.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -56.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -60.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 62.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | -9.6% | -7.2% | -23.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -7.2% | -23.8% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -7.2% | -23.8% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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