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Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) is a highly speculative mineral exploration and development company whose entire value is tied to one massive, undeveloped, and environmentally controversial mineral deposit, the Pebble Project in Alaska.

• It's like TC Energy (the company behind the Keystone XL pipeline), but if TC Energy's only asset and business was that one highly controversial pipeline project, which it is constantly trying to get permitted.
• It's a highly speculative company that holds one of the world's largest undeveloped mineral deposits, but is consistently blocked by environmental and political opposition from developing it. Think of it as a potential Rio Tinto or BHP Billiton that can't get out of the starting blocks.

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• Copper: A critical industrial metal intended for future extraction and sale from the Pebble Project.
• Gold: A precious metal targeted for future extraction from the Pebble Project for various applications.
• Molybdenum: An important alloying metal planned for future extraction from the Pebble Project.
• Silver: A precious and industrial metal designated for future extraction from the Pebble Project.

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Northern Dynasty Minerals (symbol: NAK) is a mineral exploration and development company primarily focused on the Pebble Project in Alaska, which hosts a large copper-gold-molybdenum-silver deposit.

As an exploration and development company, Northern Dynasty Minerals is not currently in commercial production. Therefore, it does not have major customers in the traditional sense that purchase its mineral products (e.g., copper concentrate, gold doré).

Its business model revolves around advancing the Pebble Project through permitting, environmental review, and feasibility studies, with the long-term goal of ultimately developing the mine or partnering with a larger mining company for its development and operation. Consequently, it does not sell its mineral output to other companies or directly to individuals. Its value is derived from the potential future production of valuable minerals from the Pebble deposit.

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• WSP Global Inc. (TSX: WSP, OTCPK: WSPPF)

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The key risks to Northern Dynasty Minerals (symbol: NAK) are primarily associated with its flagship Pebble Project in Alaska, and can be categorized as follows:

1. Regulatory and Political Risk: The most significant risk stems from the highly contentious regulatory and political environment surrounding the Pebble Project. The project has faced persistent opposition from environmental groups and Indigenous communities, leading to multiple regulatory setbacks, including vetoes by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Clean Water Act. The company is engaged in ongoing legal battles and negotiations to overturn these decisions, and the future of the project remains contingent on favorable political will and legal outcomes.
2. Financial Viability and Funding Risk: Northern Dynasty Minerals is an exploration-stage company that does not generate revenue from operations and consistently reports losses. The estimated development cost for the Pebble Project is substantial, ranging from $5 billion to $6 billion, which significantly exceeds the company's current market capitalization. This necessitates continuous reliance on external financing, creating significant financial strain and liquidity risks for the company.
3. Project Development and Operational Risk: Even if regulatory approvals are secured and funding is obtained, the Pebble Project faces considerable inherent development and operational risks. These include the complexities of finalizing the mine plan, successfully completing feasibility studies to demonstrate economic viability, securing a development partner, and overcoming potential technical and engineering challenges associated with a large-scale mining operation.

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The clear emerging threat for Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) is the increasing finality and legal robustness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Section 404(c) determination. Issued on January 31, 2023, this determination prohibits and restricts the use of certain waters in the Bristol Bay watershed as a disposal site for discharge of dredged or fill material associated with mining the Pebble deposit. While the determination itself is a past regulatory action, the emerging threat lies in the growing likelihood that Northern Dynasty Minerals will be unsuccessful in overturning this decision through ongoing legal and administrative challenges. The consolidation of this regulatory blockade as a permanent and insurmountable barrier to the Pebble Project's development represents an existential threat to the company's core asset and business model, analogous to how a disruptive product or service can render an incumbent's model unviable.

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Northern Dynasty Minerals' main products are copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver, derived from its Pebble Project in Alaska. The addressable markets for these minerals are as follows:

• Copper:
  • Global Market: The global copper market size was estimated at USD 241.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 339.95 billion by 2030.
  • North American Market: The North America copper market generated a revenue of USD 19.82 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach a projected revenue of USD 27.23 billion by 2030.
• Gold:
  • Global Market: The global gold market size was valued at USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 457.91 billion by 2032.
  • North American Market: The North America gold mining market is valued at USD 43.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 63 billion by 2035.
• Molybdenum:
  • Global Market: The global molybdenum market size was valued at USD 300.77 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 352.40 billion by 2032.
  • North American Market: North America held the second-largest market share of 21.10 percent of the global molybdenum market in 2024. Based on the global market size, this equates to approximately USD 63.46 billion in 2024.
• Silver:
  • Global Market: The global silver market size was valued at USD 87.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 202.07 billion by 2033.
  • U.S. Market: The U.S. silver market is valued at USD 25.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 38.92 billion by 2035.
• Rhenium: null

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1. Overturning the EPA Veto on the Pebble Project: The most critical driver is the successful removal of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) veto, which currently restricts the development of the Pebble Project. The company is actively pursuing a dual-track strategy involving negotiations with U.S. officials and ongoing litigation to reverse this decision, with a summary judgment timeline set from October 2025 to February 2026. Without a reversal of this veto, the project cannot move forward to generate revenue.
2. Securing all Necessary Permits and Regulatory Approvals: Following a successful overturn of the EPA veto, Northern Dynasty Minerals would need to obtain a comprehensive suite of federal and state permits and regulatory approvals to allow for the construction and operation of the mine. This multi-year permitting process is essential before any mining activities can commence and ultimately generate revenue.
3. Securing Project Financing and Strategic Partnerships: Developing a large-scale mine like Pebble requires substantial capital investment. Future revenue growth will be driven by the company's ability to secure the necessary funding through debt, equity, or strategic partnerships to finance the construction and development phases. Northern Dynasty has already secured royalty payments to advance the project and its legal efforts.
4. Advancement to Construction and Commercial Operation of the Pebble Project: The ultimate driver of revenue growth is the physical development of the mine, leading to the extraction, processing, and sale of copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver. Achieving construction milestones and commencing commercial operations will be the direct pathway to establishing revenue streams for Northern Dynasty Minerals.
5. Favorable Commodity Prices: The future revenue generated by the Pebble Project, once operational, will be directly influenced by the market prices of copper, gold, and molybdenum. Sustained favorable prices for these commodities would enhance the project's economic viability and contribute significantly to revenue growth.

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Share Issuance

• In May 2020, Northern Dynasty completed an underwritten public offering of 14,375,000 common shares, generating gross proceeds of approximately C$10.1 million (or approximately US$7.1 million).
• In December 2023, the company closed a non-brokered private placement of 8,555,000 units for aggregate gross proceeds of CAD$3,422,000 (approximately US$2.5 million).
• During the summer of 2025, Northern Dynasty received several million dollars from the exercise of stock options and warrants, further strengthening its treasury.

Inbound Investments

• Northern Dynasty entered into a royalty agreement in July 2022, which has provided a total of $60 million in funding over several tranches.
• The final $12 million tranche of this royalty investment was received on October 20, 2025, completing the $60 million program. This agreement grants the royalty holder rights to 10% of payable gold production and 30% of payable silver production from the Pebble Project.
• In December 2023, Kopernik Global Investors, LLC purchased 10-year convertible notes totaling US$15,000,000. Additionally, Kopernik Global Investors, LLC acquired 55,016,733 shares at $0.33 each, increasing its ownership stake to 15%.

Capital Expenditures

• Northern Dynasty is an exploration and development company, and its capital expenditures are primarily focused on advancing the Pebble Project in Alaska.
• In 2023, exploration expenditures amounted to $17.4 million.
• Funds are allocated to geological exploration, environmental assessments, navigating complex permitting processes, litigation with the EPA, and maintaining the project site and claims in good standing.