Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource & Commodity Security. Themes include Precious Metals & Store of Value, Commodity Investment, and Sustainable & Responsible Mining.
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 112%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 166%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.7%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource & Commodity Security. Themes include Precious Metals & Store of Value, Commodity Investment, and Sustainable & Responsible Mining.
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 112%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 166%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Novagold Resources (NG) stock moved by 45.2% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. 1. Increased Ownership and Strategic Partnership in Donlin Gold: NOVAGOLD strengthened its position in the Donlin Gold project by completing a transformative acquisition, increasing its economic interest to 60% (up from 50%), with Paulson Advisers acquiring the remaining 40% of Barrick's stake. This strategic move, detailed in the Q3 2025 report, was funded by significant equity offerings, enhancing the company's financial capacity to advance the project. 2. 2. Positive Donlin Gold Drill Program Results: Throughout the latter half of 2025, Novagold announced encouraging results from its 2025 Donlin Gold drill program. The final assay results, released on November 25, 2025, confirmed consistent high-grade gold mineralization across multiple zones, which is crucial for strengthening the resource model and supporting the upcoming Bankable Feasibility Study. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NG Return8%-29%-13%-37%-11%198%11%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%128%178%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NG Win Rate33%42%50%33%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NG Max Drawdown-34%-32%-40%-45%-39%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-68.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven212.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven673 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven80.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven586 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-97.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4553.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Novagold Resources's stock fell -68.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -68.0% loss requires a 212.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Novagold Resources (NG)

Better Bets than Novagold Resources (NG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Novagold Resources

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NGBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameNovagold.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price9.9340.50202.459.5589.65169.1865.08
Mkt Cap4.069.539.02.998.385.054.3
Rev LTM013,8241,5461,35221,50310,5686,057
Op Inc LTM-235,3511,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM-10--8562266,1223,645226
FCF 3Y Avg-10--161242,6362,041124
CFO LTM-10-1,3104559,2245,8371,310
CFO 3Y Avg-10-1,0563395,6163,8831,056

Growth & Margins

NGBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameNovagold.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM-16.9%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%35.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.9%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%23.9%
Rev Chg Q-16.4%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%38.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.9%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%5.4%
Op Mgn LTM-38.7%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%43.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-29.4%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%29.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.2%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM--84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%49.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%40.5%
FCF/Rev LTM---55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%22.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%12.7%

Valuation

NGBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameNovagold.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap4.069.539.02.998.385.054.3
P/S-2.627.82.04.38.04.3
P/EBIT-47.56.336.75.98.916.27.6
P/E-39.812.946.711.912.924.612.9
P/CFO-356.8-32.86.010.014.510.0
Total Yield-2.5%9.2%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.6%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E0.00.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

NGBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameNovagold.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn22.4%23.0%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.3%13.2%
3M Rtn48.2%50.0%6.8%22.8%19.6%14.0%21.2%
6M Rtn111.7%103.1%14.8%41.7%63.2%37.6%52.4%
12M Rtn165.5%134.8%66.7%92.2%119.3%99.3%109.3%
3Y Rtn62.5%155.4%43.6%144.9%102.1%250.1%123.5%
1M Excs Rtn22.5%23.1%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.4%13.2%
3M Excs Rtn41.8%44.0%1.2%20.0%14.7%8.9%17.4%
6M Excs Rtn97.0%88.4%0.1%27.0%48.5%22.8%37.7%
12M Excs Rtn157.8%122.9%53.2%86.2%103.8%89.4%96.6%
3Y Excs Rtn9.4%109.7%-22.8%103.2%49.2%204.6%76.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment133159199224246
Total133159199224246


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,075,601
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.0%
Average Daily Volume2,669,155
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.90
Basic Shares Quantity406,508,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251001202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025625202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025401202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024123202510-K 11/30/2024
83120241002202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024626202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024403202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023124202410-K 11/30/2023
83120231003202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023627202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023404202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022125202310-K 11/30/2022
83120221004202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022629202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022405202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021126202210-K 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Schutt Ethan7292025Buy5.233,82420,000270,574Form
1Electrum Strategic Resources L.P. 5092025Buy3.7513,333,33450,000,002348,385,549Form