Tearsheet

Trilogy Metals (TMQ)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.84 | Market Cap: $795.0 Mil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Trilogy Metals (TMQ)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.84
Market Cap: $795.0 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more.
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.6 Mil
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 256%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 312%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8%
4  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 238%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more.
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.6 Mil
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 256%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 312%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8%
5 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 238%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TMQ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 178% stock movement for Trilogy Metals (TMQ) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Strategic Investment by the U.S. Federal Government.

Trilogy Metals saw a significant surge in its stock price following the announcement that the U.S. government intended to take an approximately 10% equity stake in the company. This strategic investment involved an allocation of around $35.6 million for the development of critical mineral resources at the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP) in Alaska. The U.S. Department of War (DOW) planned to invest approximately $17.8 million by acquiring shares from South32, with additional direct investment into Trilogy Metals.

2. Advancement and Permitting of the Ambler Access Project.

Key updates regarding the issuance of federal right-of-way permits for the Ambler Access Project (AAP) in Alaska positively impacted the stock. This proposed 211-mile industrial-use-only road is considered critical for enabling the exploration and development of Trilogy Metals' mineral projects within the Ambler Mining District. The U.S. government's involvement also included discussions to establish a framework agreement for the permitting, financing, and construction of this essential infrastructure.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMQ Return-23%-18%-67%-22%170%305%81%
Peers Return28%15%14%-4%-3%41%120%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMQ Win Rate58%42%25%42%58%90% 
Peers Win Rate37%28%33%32%34%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMQ Max Drawdown-58%-26%-69%-28%-13%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-6%-9%-13%-12%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMQS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven662.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven665 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven420 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2241 days120 days

Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK


In The Past

Trilogy Metals's stock fell -86.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -86.9% loss requires a 662.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Trilogy Metals (TMQ)

Better Bets than Trilogy Metals (TMQ)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Trilogy Metals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TMQWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameTrilogy .Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
Mkt Price4.702.510.639.943.7744.884.24
Mkt Cap0.80.50.1--21.90.6
Rev LTM000-010,4840
Op Inc LTM-8-8-5--461,243-8
FCF LTM-3-24-5--45-328-24
FCF 3Y Avg-3-22-4--40-894-22
CFO LTM-3-3-5--431,508-3
CFO 3Y Avg-3-4-4--312,675-4

Growth & Margins

TMQWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameTrilogy .Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
Rev Chg LTM-----29.1%29.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg------12.0%-12.0%
Rev Chg Q-----18.4%18.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-----5.3%5.3%
Op Mgn LTM-----11.9%11.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-----13.2%13.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-----0.5%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-----14.4%14.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-----26.0%26.0%
FCF/Rev LTM------3.1%-3.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg------7.9%-7.9%

Valuation

TMQWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameTrilogy .Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
Mkt Cap0.80.50.1--21.90.6
P/S-----2.02.0
P/EBIT-45.4-48.2-11.6--11.6-28.5
P/E-37.6-105.8-12.8--17.1-25.2
P/CFO-129.5-115.4-13.1--14.2-64.2
Total Yield-2.7%-0.9%-7.8%--7.0%-1.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%--1.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.7%-8.0%-8.1%---3.9%-6.0%
D/E0.00.00.0--0.40.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.1--0.2-0.1

Returns

TMQWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameTrilogy .Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
1M Rtn17.5%32.8%2.2%-9.6%-0.3%9.2%5.7%
3M Rtn167.0%68.5%-24.4%73.5%-29.7%37.3%52.9%
6M Rtn256.1%100.8%-6.0%600.0%-16.8%100.8%
12M Rtn312.3%128.2%7.3%22.7%--1.1%22.7%
3Y Rtn686.6%44.3%4.0%--29.7%37.0%
1M Excs Rtn16.2%31.5%1.0%-10.8%-1.5%7.9%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn149.6%60.4%-29.5%65.3%-38.5%25.3%42.9%
6M Excs Rtn240.6%85.3%-21.5%584.5%-1.3%85.3%
12M Excs Rtn310.0%117.9%-9.4%36.5%--15.3%36.5%
3Y Excs Rtn666.2%-0.2%-62.9%---40.5%-20.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment13814616718552
Total13814616718552


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,515,741
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202529.6%
Average Daily Volume4,922,406
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity164,258,258
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251001202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025710202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025402202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024214202510-K 11/30/2024
83120241008202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024710202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024403202410-Q 2/29/2024
11302023209202410-K 11/30/2023
83120231011202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023714202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023405202310-Q 2/28/2023
11302022214202310-K 11/30/2022
83120221005202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022706202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022406202210-Q 2/28/2022
11302021211202210-K 11/30/2021