Trilogy Metals (TMQ)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.84 | Market Cap: $795.0 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Trilogy Metals (TMQ)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.84Market Cap: $795.0 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.6 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 256%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 312% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 238% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.6 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 256%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 312% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 238% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TMQ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 178% stock movement for Trilogy Metals (TMQ) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strategic Investment by the U.S. Federal Government.
Trilogy Metals saw a significant surge in its stock price following the announcement that the U.S. government intended to take an approximately 10% equity stake in the company. This strategic investment involved an allocation of around $35.6 million for the development of critical mineral resources at the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP) in Alaska. The U.S. Department of War (DOW) planned to invest approximately $17.8 million by acquiring shares from South32, with additional direct investment into Trilogy Metals.
2. Advancement and Permitting of the Ambler Access Project.
Key updates regarding the issuance of federal right-of-way permits for the Ambler Access Project (AAP) in Alaska positively impacted the stock. This proposed 211-mile industrial-use-only road is considered critical for enabling the exploration and development of Trilogy Metals' mineral projects within the Ambler Mining District. The U.S. government's involvement also included discussions to establish a framework agreement for the permitting, financing, and construction of this essential infrastructure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMQ Return | -23% | -18% | -67% | -22% | 170% | 305% | 81% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 15% | 14% | -4% | -3% | 41% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMQ Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 28% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMQ Max Drawdown | -58% | -26% | -69% | -28% | -13% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -6% | -9% | -13% | -12% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 662.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 665 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 420 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2241 days | 120 days |
Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK
In The Past
Trilogy Metals's stock fell -86.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -86.9% loss requires a 662.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TMQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Trilogy Metals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -8 |
| FCF LTM | -24 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22 |
| CFO LTM | -3 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | -28.5 |
| P/E | -25.2 |
| P/CFO | -64.2 |
| Total Yield | -1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 52.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 100.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 42.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 85.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 36.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10012025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7102025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4022025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 2142025 | 10-K 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10082024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7102024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4032024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 2092024 | 10-K 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10112023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7142023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4052023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 2142023 | 10-K 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10052022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7062022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4062022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 2112022 | 10-K 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |