Marzetti (MZTI)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $151.44 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Marzetti (MZTI)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $151.44Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, FCF Yield is 5.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, FCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Marzetti's Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Miss and Subsequent Stock Drop.
The company reported its Q2 FY2026 earnings on February 3, 2026, with an actual earnings per share (EPS) of $2.15, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.23 by approximately 3.4%. Despite reported revenue of $518 million closely aligning with projections, this earnings miss contributed to a notable 10.58% decrease in Marzetti's stock price on the day of the announcement.
2. Year-over-Year Decline in Sales Volume.
In its Q2 FY2026 (corresponding to Q4 CY2025), Marzetti experienced a 3.1% year-over-year drop in sales volume. This decline in sales volume is a critical concern for a consumer staples company, signaling potential challenges in maintaining consumer demand and contributing to a 1.1% dip in retail net sales, which was partially attributed to softer demand during a U.S. government shutdown.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.2% change in MZTI stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.92 | 151.45 | -8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,936 | 1,945 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 23.1 | -13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MZTI | -8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 14.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.8% | 17.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.6% change in MZTI stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 179.46 | 151.45 | -15.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,909 | 1,945 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.4 | 23.1 | -21.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MZTI | -15.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | -1.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.6% | 24.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.5% change in MZTI stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 185.88 | 151.45 | -18.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,900 | 1,945 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.6 | 23.1 | -29.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MZTI | -18.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.0% | 27.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.7% change in MZTI stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 179.57 | 151.45 | -15.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,759 | 1,945 | 10.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.8% | 9.3% | 59.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.3 | 23.1 | -52.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MZTI | -15.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 21.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 26.5% | 31.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MZTI Return | -8% | 22% | -14% | 6% | -3% | -6% | -7% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 16% | -17% | -1% | -19% | -4% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MZTI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 68% | 40% | 48% | 37% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MZTI Max Drawdown | -19% | -28% | -18% | -2% | -8% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -11% | -28% | -9% | -23% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KHC, CAG, MKC, CPB, SJM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MZTI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 579 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to KHC, CAG, MKC, CPB, SJM
In The Past
Marzetti's stock fell -40.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -40.4% loss requires a 67.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Marzetti (MZTI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
A smaller Kraft Heinz or General Mills, focused on popular brands like Marzetti salad dressings and Sister Schubert's rolls.
The company behind many grocery store staples like salad dressings, dips, and frozen baked goods, similar to a more specialized Conagra Brands.
A food manufacturer similar to Campbell Soup Company, but specializing in sauces, dressings, and frozen bread products for retail and foodservice.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Frozen Garlic Bread: A savory bread product often served as an appetizer or side dish.
- Frozen Rolls: Ready-to-bake Parkerhouse style yeast and dinner rolls.
- Salad Dressings: A variety of dressings sold under multiple brands for salads.
- Flatbreads and Pizza Crusts: Flexible flatbread wraps and ready-to-use pizza crusts.
- Croutons and Salad Toppings: Crispy bread pieces and other additions for enhancing salads.
- Frozen Pasta: Convenient, ready-to-cook pasta products.
- Vegetable and Fruit Dips: Flavorful dips designed for pairing with vegetables and fruits.
- Licensed Brand Sauces and Dressings: Sauces and dressings manufactured under agreements with popular restaurant brands like Olive Garden, Buffalo Wild Wings, and Chick-fil-A.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lancaster Colony Corporation (MZTI) primarily sells its food products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided background, its major customers are broadly categorized as:
- Retailers: This category includes various grocery stores, supermarkets, and other retail establishments that purchase Lancaster Colony's products for resale to consumers.
- Restaurants: This category encompasses a wide range of foodservice operators, from major restaurant chains to independent establishments, that use Lancaster Colony's products in their menus or operations.
The provided company description does not list specific names of individual customer companies or their public symbols.
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The rise of alternative food acquisition and consumption models, such as meal kit delivery services and direct-to-consumer (DTC) food brands. These models bypass traditional grocery retail channels and offer curated or customized food solutions directly to consumers, potentially reducing reliance on conventional packaged goods like those offered by Lancaster Colony.
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nullLatest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Marzetti Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| How Low Can Marzetti Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MZTI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01022026 | CALM | Cal-Maine Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.0% | 12.0% | -7.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| Rev LTM | 9,542 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,288 |
| FCF LTM | 808 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 799 |
| CFO LTM | 1,199 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,206 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.0 |
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -26.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 988 | 965 | 915 | 829 | 714 |
| Foodservice | 883 | 857 | 761 | 638 | 620 |
| Total | 1,872 | 1,823 | 1,676 | 1,467 | 1,334 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 208 | 139 | 152 | 188 | 161 |
| Foodservice | 97 | 106 | 83 | 89 | 80 |
| Nonallocated Restructuring and Impairment Charges | -15 | 0 | -26 | -1 | |
| Nonallocated Corporate Expenses | -91 | -104 | -97 | -92 | -65 |
| Total | 199 | 142 | 112 | 186 | 176 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail & Foodservice | 1,015 | 984 | 1,017 | 878 | 771 |
| Corporate | 191 | 129 | 73 | 223 | 222 |
| Total | 1,207 | 1,113 | 1,090 | 1,101 | 993 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $151.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $162.80 | $168.29 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.0% | -10.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.8% | 29.3% |
| Downside Capture | 72.21 | 42.97 |
| Upside Capture | 26.56 | 20.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.2% | 16.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.84 | 0.41 | 0.22 | -0.12 | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| Up Beta | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.17 | -0.08 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| Down Beta | 1.34 | 0.32 | 0.27 | -0.42 | -0.15 | 0.13 |
| Up Capture | 101% | 54% | 15% | -10% | 11% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 32 | 56 | 126 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 98% | 64% | 29% | 18% | 46% | 73% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 28 | 66 | 123 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MZTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MZTI | -14.4% | 29.3% | -0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.4% | 13.9% | 0.34 | 26.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 16.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | -0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 29.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MZTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MZTI | -1.6% | 27.1% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.1% | 13.1% | 0.40 | 38.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 25.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 2.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 30.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 9.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MZTI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MZTI | 5.8% | 27.5% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 14.7% | 0.40 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 37.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 40.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 9.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -7.7% | -11.2% | -2.6% |
| 11/4/2025 | 9.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% |
| 8/21/2025 | -0.2% | 1.9% | -0.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | -15.6% | -16.3% | -14.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | 8.7% | 12.1% | 15.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -6.2% | 8.3% | 0.5% |
| 8/22/2024 | -12.3% | -14.5% | -7.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.3% | 1.8% | -3.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -9.4% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 15.2% | 15.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -16.3% | -19.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciesinski, David Alan | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172025 | 191.19 | 17,000 | 3,250,230 | 10,447,386 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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