Merlin (MRLN)
Market Price (6/6/2026): $8.75 | Market Cap: $633.7 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Merlin (MRLN)
Market Price (6/6/2026): $8.75Market Cap: $633.7 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Merlin (MRLN) stock has lost about 65% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Post-SPAC Devaluation and Listing Shock.
Merlin, Inc. became a publicly traded company on Nasdaq around March 16, 2026, following a SPAC merger. The stock experienced a significant "collapse of 61.56% on its first trading day," setting a severely negative trajectory for its market performance during the specified period.
2. Significant Widening of Q1 2026 Financial Losses.
Merlin, Inc. reported its first-quarter 2026 results on May 14, 2026, revealing a GAAP net loss of $(90.4) million, a substantial increase from a $(12.7) million loss in the first quarter of 2025. The Adjusted EBITDA loss also widened significantly to $(23.3) million from $(10.4) million year-over-year, despite a modest revenue increase to $1.0 million. This earnings report led to a 9.37% decline in the stock on the day of the announcement and a further 15.15% drop in pre-market trading.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -63.4% change in MRLN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.49 | 8.60 | -63.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 71 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRLN | -63.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | -1.4% | 30.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRLN | -63.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.0% | 30.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRLN | -63.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 23.6% | 30.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRLN | -63.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 88.1% | 30.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MRLN Return | 96% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -69% | -40% |
| Peers Return | -26% | -18% | 93% | 29% | 57% | -11% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MRLN Win Rate | 67% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 45% | 62% | 50% | 52% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MRLN Max Drawdown | -23% | -0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -75% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -48% | -30% | -33% | -39% | -48% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JOBY, ACHR, AVAV, KTOS, LMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MRLN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -74.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 284.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 6 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Merlin's stock fell -0.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening. Such a loss loss requires a 0.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MRLN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -74.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 284.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 765.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.2% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1837 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Merlin's stock fell -0.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening. Such a loss loss requires a 0.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Merlin (MRLN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Like Ally Financial, but for business equipment financing instead of consumer auto loans.
They're a specialized bank, much like Silicon Valley Bank focused on tech startups, but Marlin provides equipment financing to small and mid-sized businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Equipment Financing Solutions: Marlin provides financing for various types of commercial equipment to small and mid-sized businesses in the U.S.
- Property Insurance Coverage: The company offers property insurance specifically for the equipment it finances.
- FDIC-Insured Deposits and Money Market Accounts: Marlin issues FDIC-insured deposits and money market demand accounts through its subsidiaries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Merlin (MRLN) primarily sells its equipment financing solutions to other companies.
The company's major customers are identified as a broad category of businesses:
- Small and mid-sized businesses in the United States.
Marlin Business Services Corp. serves a diverse range of these businesses by providing financing for commercial equipment across approximately 100 categories, including copiers, security systems, computers and software, and telecommunications equipment. Specific names of individual customer companies are not disclosed in the provided information, as the company serves a wide and varied customer base of small and mid-sized enterprises.
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Jeffrey A. Hilzinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jeffrey A. Hilzinger served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Marlin Business Services Corp. until its acquisition by funds managed by affiliates of HPS Investment Partners LLC in January 2022. He joined Marlin in 2007 and was appointed CEO in June 2016. Under his leadership, Marlin underwent a significant transformation, evolving into a comprehensive provider of credit products and services for small businesses over five years leading up to the acquisition.
Prior to joining Marlin, Mr. Hilzinger co-founded US Express Leasing (USXL) in 2004, a small ticket vendor finance startup that was later acquired by Tygris Commercial Finance Group in 2008. He also held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Tygris Vendor Finance. After EverBank acquired Tygris Commercial Finance Group in 2010, Mr. Hilzinger led its restructuring into EverBank Commercial Finance, where he served as President and oversaw its growth into a $4 billion diversified commercial finance platform. His extensive career includes over 20 years at Heller Financial, Inc., where he held various senior finance, credit, and operational leadership roles in asset-based lending, leveraged lending, and vendor equipment finance businesses. Additionally, he co-founded Aternus Partners, LLC, a management consulting firm.
Michael R. Bogansky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael R. Bogansky was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marlin Business Services Corp., a position he assumed on February 1, 2019, and held until the company's acquisition in January 2022. In this role, he was responsible for overseeing Marlin’s accounting, financial reporting and planning, treasury, tax, and investor relations activities.
Before his tenure at Marlin, Mr. Bogansky served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of PHH Corporation (formerly NYSE:PHH) from March 2017 until its acquisition by Ocwen Financial Corporation in October 2018. He also held other leadership positions at PHH Corporation, including Senior Vice President, Corporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer. Earlier in his career, he worked as a Senior Audit Associate with Deloitte & Touche, LLP, and as a Staff Auditor at Ernst & Young.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Merlin Business Services Corp. (MRLN) operates within several significant addressable markets in the United States.Equipment Financing Solutions
The U.S. equipment finance industry is a substantial market. In 2023, the industry expanded to an estimated $1.34 trillion. This market is projected to continue its growth, reaching approximately $1.59 trillion in 2026, from $1.43 trillion in 2025, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7%. A significant portion of this market is accessible to Merlin, as small-ticket financing constituted 22.9% and middle-ticket financing accounted for 55.5% of new business volume in 2023. Merlin's focus on small and mid-sized businesses aligns with the broader U.S. middle market, which comprises 300,000 midsize businesses generating $13 trillion in annual revenue. Businesses with revenues between $11 million and $100 million alone contribute $5.4 trillion in annual revenue and represent nearly 90% of the total number of midsize businesses, indicating a robust segment for equipment financing solutions.Property Insurance Coverage
Merlin also provides property insurance coverage on its financed equipment. The U.S. property and casualty insurance market is substantial, estimated at USD 1.14 trillion in 2026. This market is forecast to grow to USD 1.39 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 3.91% from 2026-2031. Specifically, the U.S. property insurance market is projected to experience a 9.93% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. The small commercial business segment within the property and casualty insurance market is anticipated to expand at a 4.49% CAGR through 2031, highlighting a targeted growth area for Merlin. The overall U.S. market for property and casualty insurance is projected to reach USD 758.71 billion by 2026.FDIC-Insured Deposits and Money Market Demand Accounts
Merlin issues Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)-insured deposits and money market demand accounts. The total deposits held by U.S. banks currently amount to $18 trillion, with approximately half of these deposits being FDIC-insured. While the standard FDIC insurance limit is $250,000 per depositor per insured bank, many businesses, particularly small and mid-sized ones, often require larger insured balances. For instance, nearly half of small businesses with 50-99 employees have monthly payrolls exceeding the $250,000 FDIC threshold. This indicates a demand among businesses for secure and insured deposit solutions. The small business banking sector in the U.S., which includes various banking services for small businesses, was valued at USD 118.45 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 165 million by 2033. This broad market for business deposits and related banking services represents the addressable market for Merlin's FDIC-insured deposit and money market demand accounts.AI Analysis | Feedback
Marlin Business Services Corp. (MRLN) was acquired by funds managed by HPS Investment Partners LLC in an all-cash transaction, effective January 20, 2022. Following the completion of this acquisition, Marlin became a wholly-owned subsidiary of HPS Investment Partners LLC, and its common stock is no longer listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. As such, Marlin Business Services Corp. is no longer a public company, and information regarding forward guidance, earnings transcripts, or analyst commentary for a publicly traded entity is not available.
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Inbound Investments
- Marlin Business Services Corp. entered into a definitive agreement on April 19, 2021, to be acquired by funds managed by HPS Investment Partners LLC.
- The acquisition involved an all-cash transaction where Marlin shareholders received $23.50 per share, representing a 65% premium over the company's closing stock price on April 16, 2021.
- The acquisition was completed on January 20, 2022, resulting in Marlin Business Services Corp. becoming a privately held company and its shares no longer being listed on NASDAQ.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,415 |
| Op Inc LTM | -95 |
| FCF LTM | -246 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -91 |
| CFO LTM | -174 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -52 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 69.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -28.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -15.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.1 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| P/Op Inc | -5.1 |
| P/EBIT | -5.1 |
| P/E | -5.7 |
| P/CFO | -16.6 |
| Total Yield | -2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -20.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -34.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -29.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -40.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -9.4% | -14.8% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -9.4% | -14.8% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -14.8% | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goldman, Sachs Group Inc | See footnotes | Buy | 2262026 | 10.96 | 5 | 55 | 35,641,748 | Form | |
| 2 | Goldman, Sachs Group Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2262026 | 10.95 | 3 | 33 | 35,602,699 | Form | |
| 3 | Goldman, Sachs Group Inc | See footnotes | Buy | 2262026 | 10.99 | 379 | 4,166 | 35,756,645 | Form | |
| 4 | Goldman, Sachs Group Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2262026 | 11.00 | 379 | 4,168 | 35,763,291 | Form | |
| 5 | Goldman, Sachs Group Inc | See footnotes | Buy | 2262026 | 10.79 | 3,944 | 42,551 | 35,497,076 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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