MP Materials (MP)
Market Price (2/27/2026): $58.39 | Market Cap: $10.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
MP Materials (MP)
Market Price (2/27/2026): $58.39Market Cap: $10.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -185 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -80% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 152% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.4% | ||
| Key risksMP key risks include [1] substantial execution risk in its vertical integration strategy to become a magnet producer and [2] significant customer concentration with a small group of key partners. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -185 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -80% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 45x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 152% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.4% |
| Key risksMP key risks include [1] substantial execution risk in its vertical integration strategy to become a magnet producer and [2] significant customer concentration with a small group of key partners. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Revenue Miss in Q4 2025. MP Materials reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $52.69 million, which was a substantial miss compared to analyst expectations of $89.93 million, representing a 41.41% shortfall. This revenue decline was largely due to the company's strategic decision to halt third-party rare earth concentrate sales to China, as part of an agreement with the U.S. government, resulting in no revenue from this segment during the quarter.
2. Increased Capital Expenditures and Negative Operating Cash Flow. The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of $46.9 million in Q4 2025, marking a 253.7% year-over-year decrease. Looking ahead, MP Materials projects significant capital expenditures for 2026, ranging from $500 million to $600 million, primarily allocated for the construction of its 10X magnetics facility. While these are investments for future growth, the immediate cash burn can weigh on short-term investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.9% change in MP stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 63.09 | 60.00 | -4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 242 | 233 | -3.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 42.7 | 45.1 | 5.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 164 | 175 | -6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MP | -4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 38.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 23.7% | 28.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.4% change in MP stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.50 | 60.00 | -2.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 216 | 233 | 7.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 46.6 | 45.1 | -3.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 164 | 175 | -6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MP | -2.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 22.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.4% | 19.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 173.2% change in MP stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.96 | 60.00 | 173.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 184 | 233 | 26.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 19.6 | 45.1 | 130.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 164 | 175 | -6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 173.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MP | 173.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 20.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.1% | 18.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 84.6% change in MP stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 319.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.51 | 60.00 | 84.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 533 | 233 | -56.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.8 | 45.1 | 319.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 177 | 175 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 84.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MP | 84.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 28.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.1% | 30.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MP Return | 41% | -47% | -18% | -21% | 224% | 16% | 82% |
| Peers Return | 139% | -11% | 2% | -22% | 8052% | 40% | 19178% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MP Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 15% | 35% | 30% | 57% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MP Max Drawdown | -24% | -48% | -38% | -47% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -16% | -23% | -30% | -30% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: USAR, UUUU, NB, CODI, METC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 290.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 614 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 148 days |
Compare to USAR, UUUU, NB, CODI, METC
In The Past
MP Materials's stock fell -74.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/4/2022. A -74.4% loss requires a 290.0% gain to breakeven.
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About MP Materials (MP)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe MP Materials:
The Alcoa of rare earth elements.
The Saudi Aramco of rare earths for the Western supply chain.
The TSMC of critical materials for advanced technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide: A high-purity rare earth oxide critical for manufacturing powerful permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other advanced technologies.
- Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate Concentrate: The initial raw material concentrate produced directly from the Mountain Pass mine, containing a blend of various rare earth elements for further processing.
- Lanthanum Carbonate: A rare earth compound primarily used in catalysts for petroleum refining and in specialized polishing applications.
- Cerium Carbonate/Oxide: Rare earth compounds widely employed in polishing applications, catalytic converters, and as additives in glass and ceramics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MP Materials (symbol: MP) primarily sells its rare earth materials and advanced products to other companies, operating on a business-to-business (B2B) model. Its major customers include:- Shenghe Resources (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.: Historically, this has been MP Materials' largest customer, purchasing rare earth concentrate. While its proportional revenue contribution is expected to decrease as MP Materials expands its downstream operations, it remains a significant customer. Shenghe Resources (Singapore) is a private company.
- General Motors (NYSE: GM): MP Materials has a multi-year agreement to supply NdPr alloy and finished NdFeB magnets for General Motors' electric vehicle (EV) programs.
- Sumitomo Corporation (TYO: 8053): This Japanese trading company is a strategic partner and customer for MP Materials' NdPr oxide.
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- Sempra Energy (SRE)
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James Litinsky, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
James Litinsky is the Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of MP Materials Corp.. He is also the Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of JHL Capital Group LLC, an alternative investment management firm. Prior to founding JHL in 2006, he was a member of the Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund at Fortress Investment Group LLC, a global investment management firm. Before Fortress, he was a Director of Finance at Omnicom Group, Inc., and worked as a merchant banker at Allen & Company. Mr. Litinsky led the acquisition of the Mountain Pass mine and took MP Materials public via a SPAC in 2020.
Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett joined MP Materials as its Chief Financial Officer in 2019. Previously, he was a Managing Director at JHL Capital Group LLC, an alternative investment management firm, where he focused on JHL's investment in MP Materials. Before JHL, Mr. Corbett was a member of alternative asset managers Brahman Capital Corp. and King Street Capital Management LP, where he focused on special situations investments across the capital structure. He began his career in investment banking and corporate finance at Morgan Stanley & Co.
Michael Rosenthal, Chief Operating Officer
Michael Rosenthal is a Founder and the Chief Operating Officer of MP Materials. He has managed the Mountain Pass operation since the Company acquired the site in 2017. Before MP Materials, he was a Partner at QVT Financial, an investment management firm, where he concentrated on investments in the global automotive sector and in China. Prior to joining QVT, he worked as a senior high yield credit analyst for Shenkman Capital Management.
Elliot D. Hoops, General Counsel and Secretary
Elliot D. Hoops joined MP Materials as its General Counsel and Secretary in May 2021. Prior to MP Materials, he was Vice President and Deputy General Counsel at Penn National Gaming, Inc. (now known as PENN Entertainment, Inc.) from January 2019 to May 2021, where he was responsible for various legal matters, including commercial transactions, financings, corporate governance, securities law, and gaming regulatory compliance. Before Penn, he spent over a decade at Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc., managing diverse legal matters and several public company transactions, including acquisitions and a spin-off. Earlier in his career, he was an associate at Holland & Knight LLP and an attorney advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Zachary Lehman, Chief Technology Officer
Zachary Lehman is Chief Technology Officer at MP Materials, joining in June 2020. Prior to MP Materials, he served as Director of Information Technology at JHL Capital Group LLC from 2011 to 2020. Before JHL, he held leadership roles at Eze Castle Integration, first as Service Director and later as Director of Technology Consulting, advising financial services firms on IT infrastructure, compliance, and security. Earlier in his career, Mr. Lehman served as Director of Technology at Värde Partners and as a Systems Support Engineer at Sara Lee Corporation in 1998.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to MP Materials' business are primarily associated with its ambitious vertical integration strategy, the inherent volatility and geopolitical influence within the rare earth market, and its reliance on key strategic partnerships.
- Execution Risk in Vertical Integration and New Facilities: MP Materials is undertaking a significant strategic shift to become a fully integrated rare earth magnet producer. This involves the successful and timely commissioning of new facilities, such as the Fort Worth magnet manufacturing plant and the 10X Facility, as well as scaling up heavy rare earth separation capabilities at Mountain Pass. The company faces considerable execution risks, including potential delays, cost overruns, and technical challenges in transitioning from mining and processing to manufacturing high-quality magnets. Any setbacks in achieving anticipated production rates or competing with established magnet manufacturers, particularly those in China, could materially impact its financial performance and market opportunities.
- Geopolitical and Market Risks: The rare earth market is characterized by significant price volatility and is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors. China's dominance in global rare earth and magnet production presents a substantial competitive threat and potential for supply chain disruptions. Fluctuations in the global macroeconomic environment, supply and demand dynamics, and currency exchange rates directly affect the pricing and demand for rare earth products, especially NdPr oxide, to which MP Materials' financial performance is sensitive.
- Customer Concentration Risk: While MP Materials has secured crucial long-term agreements with entities like the U.S. Department of Defense and Apple, its business model involves a degree of customer concentration. The success and stability of these partnerships are contingent on MP Materials' ability to consistently meet contractual obligations, including production volumes and quality specifications. A significant reliance on a small group of anchor customers introduces a risk if these agreements are not honored or if there are changes in demand or policy from these key partners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The active research, development, and growing adoption by major customers (particularly in the automotive sector) of non-rare-earth magnet technologies for applications like electric vehicle motors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MP Materials (symbol: MP) operates in the critical rare earth materials sector, with its addressable markets encompassing rare earth elements, specifically neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, and rare earth permanent magnets, particularly neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets.
Rare Earth Elements (Overall Market)
The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately USD 12.44 billion in 2024. This market is projected to expand significantly, reaching an estimated USD 37.06 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.83% from 2025 to 2033.
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide
The global market for Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide, a key component in high-strength permanent magnets, was valued at approximately USD 5.397 billion (US$ 5397 million) in 2024. Forecasts indicate substantial growth, with the market expected to reach USD 11.03 billion (US$ 11030 million) by 2031, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% during the forecast period.
Rare Earth Magnets (NdFeB Magnets)
The global rare earth magnet market, which includes NdFeB magnets that MP Materials is developing, was valued at approximately USD 19.5 billion in 2024. This market is anticipated to grow, with projections ranging from USD 30.3 billion by 2033 to USD 40.5 billion by 2034, or even reaching USD 69.7 billion by 2032 with a 12.1% CAGR from a 2025 value of USD 31.3 billion. Another estimate projects the market to reach USD 30.01 billion by 2030 from USD 21.98 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 6.4%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MP Materials (symbol: MP) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Expansion into Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) Magnet Manufacturing (Stage III): MP Materials is vertically integrating its operations by moving downstream into the production of finished rare earth permanent magnets at its Fort Worth, Texas facility. Commercial production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal commenced in January 2025, with the first deliveries of automotive-grade NdFeB magnets anticipated by the end of 2025. This facility aims to produce approximately 1,000 metric tons of finished NdFeB magnets annually, supplying companies like General Motors. This expansion into high-value magnet production is expected to generate significantly higher margins compared to raw material or oxide production.
- Increased Production and Separation of Rare Earth Elements (Stage II): The company is significantly expanding its capabilities to separate and refine rare earth elements at its Mountain Pass facility. MP Materials has reported record production of NdPr oxide, with a 51% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025. Furthermore, the commissioning of its heavy rare earth (dysprosium and terbium) separation capabilities is targeted for mid-2026, aiming for 200 metric tons per year of combined production to support magnet manufacturing. This transition to producing higher-value separated products and heavy rare earths reduces reliance on foreign processing and captures more value within the domestic supply chain.
- Strategic Partnerships and Government Support: MP Materials has secured crucial long-term agreements and government backing that provide revenue visibility and market position. This includes a long-term agreement with General Motors to supply rare earth materials, alloys, and magnets for electric vehicle motors. Additionally, a long-term purchase price agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense provides an "elevated pricing floor" and enhances cash flow visibility. The company has also received a $40 million prepayment from Apple for magnets produced from recycled materials, with a total of $200 million expected. These partnerships are pivotal in securing future revenue streams and strengthening the company's market position.
- Growing Demand from Electrification and Advanced Technologies: The increasing global demand for electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, robotics, and defense systems fuels the need for high-strength rare earth permanent magnets. MP Materials is positioning itself as a critical supplier for these sectors, with its NdPr magnets being essential for modern electric motors and generators. The company anticipates "explosive growth in rare earth magnetics due to physical AI," further driving demand for its products.
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Share Repurchases
- In September 2024, MP Materials increased its share repurchase program by $300 million, bringing the total authorized amount to $600 million, effective until August 30, 2026.
- During 2024, the company repurchased approximately 8.6% of its common stock, totaling $225.1 million.
- Following an August 1, 2024, earnings announcement, MP Materials repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares at an average price of $10.84.
Share Issuance
- In July 2025, MP Materials priced an upsized public offering of 11,818,181 shares of common stock at $55.00 per share, expecting gross proceeds of approximately $650 million.
- The net proceeds from this offering are intended to fund the acceleration and expansion of operations, including the 10X Facility, strategic growth opportunities, and general corporate purposes.
Inbound Investments
- The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) made a strategic investment in July 2025, purchasing $400 million in newly-created preferred stock convertible into common shares, potentially making the DoD the largest shareholder. This partnership also includes a $150 million low-interest loan for heavy rare earth separation and a guaranteed price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products.
- In July 2025, Apple agreed to invest $500 million for MP Materials to supply rare earth magnets manufactured in the United States, including $200 million in milestone-based prepayments.
- General Motors, a foundational partner, has provided $150 million in prepayments as part of an agreement for MP Materials to supply permanent magnets for its next-generation electric vehicles.
Outbound Investments
- No information available regarding MP Materials making strategic outbound investments in other companies during the specified period.
Capital Expenditures
- MP Materials anticipates capital expenditures of $200-250 million for 2024.
- The company has outlined a CapEx plan of $150-175 million for 2025, focusing on completing the Independence facility, advancing heavy rare earth separation, and other investments at Mountain Pass.
- Capital expenditures in Q1 2025 were $30.5 million, split roughly evenly between the materials and magnetics divisions. The primary focus of these expenditures is on expanding operations, including Stage II refining upgrades and the construction of magnet manufacturing facilities in Fort Worth, Texas.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| MP Stock Surges 24% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Technical Breakout | 01/08/2026 | |
| MP Materials Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| With MP Materials Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 11/11/2025 | |
| How MP Materials Stock Gained 170% | 11/08/2025 | |
| Why MP Materials Stock Jumped 170%? | 11/08/2025 | |
| Is 24.9% Fall In MP Materials (MP) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 10/22/2025 | |
| How Does MP Materials Stock Compare With Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| MP Materials Stock Surged 170%, Here’s Why | 11/08/2025 | |
| What A U.S.-China Trade Deal Means For MP Materials Stock? | 10/28/2025 | |
| What’s Next After MP Stock’s 5X Surge? | 10/22/2025 | |
| MP Materials Stock Surges On China’s Rare-Earth Move. What Next? | 10/13/2025 | |
| What’s Happening With MP Materials Stock? | 09/26/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 8.8% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.2% | 20.2% | -0.5% |
| 04302023 | MP | MP Materials | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -23.9% | -24.2% | -39.8% |
| 09302022 | MP | MP Materials | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.3% | -30.0% | -31.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| Rev LTM | 156 |
| Op Inc LTM | -32 |
| FCF LTM | -32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -87 |
| CFO LTM | -15 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -14 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 26.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -42.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -23.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -52.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -52.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| P/S | 23.3 |
| P/EBIT | -21.5 |
| P/E | -19.5 |
| P/CFO | -44.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 160.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 146.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 253 | ||||
| Magnetics | 0 | ||||
| Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal | 0 | ||||
| Other revenue | 10 | 3 | |||
| Rare earth concentrate | 517 | 329 | |||
| Product sales | 134 | 73 | |||
| Total | 253 | 528 | 332 | 134 | 73 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 130 | ||||
| Accretion of asset retirement and environmental obligations | -1 | ||||
| Gain on disposals of long-lived assets, net | -6 | ||||
| Magnetics | -7 | ||||
| Transaction-related and other costs | -11 | ||||
| Initial start-up costs | -21 | ||||
| Corporate expenses and other | -21 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation expense | -25 | ||||
| Depreciation, depletion and amortization | -56 | ||||
| Total | -18 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $60.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/22/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -39.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $59.62 | $56.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.6% | 6.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 69.5% | 97.9% |
| Downside Capture | 298.67 | 107.95 |
| Upside Capture | 273.52 | 184.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.0% | 20.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.06 | 1.10 | 2.59 | 1.49 | 0.97 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | -6.66 | -6.24 | 0.66 | 1.94 | 0.66 | 0.92 |
| Down Beta | -0.36 | -0.01 | 1.93 | 0.01 | 0.70 | 1.04 |
| Up Capture | 361% | 334% | 359% | 177% | 324% | 567% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 31 | 63 | 128 | 360 |
| Down Capture | 62% | 321% | 305% | 207% | 102% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 121 | 385 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | 166.5% | 97.8% | 1.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 21.4% | 20.7% | 0.83 | 19.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.1% | 19.4% | 0.69 | 20.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.3% | 25.7% | 2.25 | 15.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 16.8% | 0.45 | 11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 16.6% | 0.21 | 12.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.4% | 45.1% | -0.46 | 20.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | 7.2% | 71.2% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.2% | 18.9% | 0.38 | 39.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 38.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 18.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 57.0% | 0.29 | 21.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | 20.4% | 72.6% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.1% | 20.6% | 0.53 | 36.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.81 | 15.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 19.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 27.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.3% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 20.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 12.8% | 10.8% | 15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 4.6% | 7.8% | -11.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -8.0% | -10.6% | 16.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | 4.8% | 1.2% | 11.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -2.4% | -7.1% | 2.7% |
| 8/1/2024 | -11.9% | -13.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | -3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| 2/22/2024 | -4.2% | -2.9% | -12.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 6.8% | 11.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -9.6% | -11.7% |
| Max Positive | 18.2% | 15.2% | 91.9% |
| Max Negative | -11.9% | -14.3% | -27.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbett, Ryan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 60.00 | 38,146 | 2,288,760 | 9,399,960 | Form |
| 2 | Litinsky, James H | Chairman and CEO | Held by James Henry Litinsky, Trustee of James Henry Litinsky Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/19/2011 | Sell | 12052025 | 62.94 | 385,000 | 24,232,308 | 824,903,335 | Form |
| 3 | Litinsky, James H | Chairman and CEO | Held by James Henry Litinsky, Trustee of James Henry Litinsky Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/19/2011 | Sell | 11202025 | 63.86 | 248,411 | 15,864,583 | 853,843,645 | Form |
| 4 | Corbett, Ryan | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 57.72 | 20,000 | 1,154,400 | 11,244,549 | Form |
| 5 | Rosenthal, Michael Stuart | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 72.02 | 150,000 | 10,802,838 | 92,501,752 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.