AI Analysis | Feedback

Analogies for Ramaco Resources (METC):

• Freeport-McMoRan for metallurgical coal.

• Albemarle for metallurgical coal.

• Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) for metallurgical coal.

AI Analysis | Feedback

• Metallurgical Coal: A critical raw material primarily used in the production of coke for steel manufacturing.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Ramaco Resources (METC) primarily sells metallurgical coal, a key ingredient in steel production. Therefore, its customers are primarily other companies.

METC's major customers are **integrated steel producers** globally, as well as **trading houses and brokering arrangements** that supply these steel producers.

While Ramaco Resources' filings indicate that a significant portion of their revenue comes from a small number of large customers (e.g., 18% from their largest customer and 17% from their second largest customer in 2023), the company does not publicly disclose the specific names of these major customer companies in its SEC filings or other public documents.

AI Analysis | Feedback

• Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
• CSX Corporation (CSX)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Randall W. Atkins, Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
Randall W. Atkins is a founder of Ramaco and has served as the Chairman of the Board of Directors since its inception in 2015, and was appointed Chief Executive Officer in 2021. He also founded Ramaco Coal LLC in 2011. Mr. Atkins has over 40 years of experience in energy and commodity-related development, investment, and financing. Prior to forming Ramaco, he was with J.P. Morgan & Co. and held various investment banking and private equity positions in the mining and energy fields. He previously served as CEO of Pelagas Ltd and Executive Vice President at S.N. Phelps & Co. He also ran a joint venture with the Lauder family that privatized energy assets in Eastern Europe. In 2011, he purchased an old coal mine in Wyoming, which later revealed significant rare earth element deposits. Ramaco Coal LLC, which Mr. Atkins partially owned along with private equity backers Yorktown IX and Michael Bauersachs, was acquired by Ramaco Development LLC in April 2022 for $65 million. He has a background in private equity and co-owns the private company Ramaco Royalties with private equity backers. Mr. Atkins served as the immediate past Chairman of the U.S. Department of Energy's National Coal Council and is on the Board of Directors of the National Mining Association.

Jeremy R. Sussman, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Jeremy R. Sussman became the Chief Financial Officer of Ramaco in 2019. He possesses an extensive background in the coal industry, having spent many years as a leading mining and mineral industry analyst on Wall Street. Before joining Ramaco, Mr. Sussman was the Managing Director – Mining and Metals at Clarksons Platou Securities, a role he held since 2013. Prior to Clarksons, he worked as a research analyst specializing in the coal sector at Citadel and various other sell-side and buy-side hedge funds.

Christopher L. Blanchard, EVP for Mine Planning and Development
Chris Blanchard has provided mining oversight, management, and planning services to Ramaco since 2013, initially as a consultant and formally as an officer in 2018. He has managed significant mining operations for a range of major public and private companies, particularly in Central Appalachia. In his current role, he oversees the execution and planning of new coal production and infrastructure in the East, as well as the development of rare earth deposits at the Brook Mine in Wyoming.

Scott Spears, EVP for Planning and Analysis
Scott Spears joined Ramaco in 2020 and brings over 30 years of experience in the coal industry, having held various senior executive roles. His past positions include Chief Executive Officer at Jesse Creek Mining in Alabama and President and Chief Financial Officer at White Oak Resources in Illinois. At Ramaco, he is responsible for overseeing all external audit and public reporting activities, as well as IT and general financial and investment modeling.

Jason Fannin, EVP & Chief Commercial Officer
Jason Fannin oversees sales, marketing, and logistics for Ramaco. He has broad experience in the coal industry, spanning over 25 years with various public and private coal companies. Before joining Ramaco in 2020, Mr. Fannin held several senior sales and marketing positions with companies such as Contura Energy, Alpha Natural Resources, and AMCI Resources.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks to Ramaco Resources (METC)

1. Commodity Price Volatility and Metallurgical Coal Market Headwinds: Ramaco Resources' primary business of metallurgical coal is highly susceptible to significant price fluctuations driven by global economic conditions, steel demand, and oversupply pressures. The metallurgical coal market is currently experiencing a downturn, with declining realized prices and compressed margins, which negatively impacts the company's profitability. Furthermore, long-term systemic climate and decarbonization policies pose continuous pressure on coal demand, adding to market uncertainty.
2. Execution Risk of Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals Diversification: The company's strategy to diversify into rare earth elements and critical minerals through its Wyoming project presents substantial execution risks. This initiative relies on unproven extraction methods, optimistic pricing assumptions, and requires significant capital investment. There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the technical viability and ultimate economic return of this project, with past execution having been inconsistent. The company's future valuation is heavily dependent on the successful development and commercialization of these critical mineral operations.
3. Financial Fragility and Leverage: Ramaco Resources exhibits signs of financial strain, including a debt-heavy balance sheet, declining earnings estimates, and recent dividend cuts. The company's debt-to-equity ratio and overall debt levels raise concerns about its leverage, and analysts have significantly reduced earnings projections. The ability to maintain or pay dividends may be constrained by cash flow and existing debt obligations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threat to Ramaco Resources (METC) is the global shift towards "green steel" production methods, particularly Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) using green hydrogen. This technology allows for the production of steel without the need for metallurgical coal, which is Ramaco Resources' primary product. Major steelmakers worldwide are actively investing billions in projects to develop and scale up green steel production, with targets for significant commercial capacity in the late 2020s and 2030s. This represents a fundamental disruption to the demand for metallurgical coal, similar to how new technologies disrupted industries for companies like Blockbuster or Research in Motion.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Ramaco Resources (METC) primarily operates in the metallurgical coal sector, and is also developing a significant venture in rare earth elements and critical minerals.

Metallurgical Coal

The global addressable market for metallurgical coal was valued at approximately USD 94.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 128.4 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8%. The North American metallurgical coal market, a key region for Ramaco Resources, was valued at USD 23.72 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 27.27 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.35%.

Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals

Ramaco Resources recently launched operations at its Brook Mine in Wyoming, marking the first new rare earth mine in the United States in over 70 years, signaling a diversification into critical minerals. The global rare earth elements market size was valued at USD 5.75 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 11.23 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.7% during the forecast period (2024-2032). The market size for critical minerals is broader and includes rare earth elements. No specific market size for coal-to-carbon products directly attributable to Ramaco's current research phase could be readily identified.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Ramaco Resources (METC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a strategic combination of its evolving critical minerals business and its established metallurgical coal operations. Key drivers include:

1. Expansion into Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals (Brook Mine): Ramaco is transitioning to become a significant developer of rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals, primarily through its Brook Mine in Wyoming. This mine is positioned as potentially the first new rare earth mine in the U.S. in over 70 years. The company plans to establish a national strategic stockpile and terminal for these minerals, serving both public and private sectors for U.S. industry and defense needs. Ramaco's board recently approved a substantial increase in the planned rare earth oxide production capacity at the Brook Mine, from a previously forecast 1,240 tons to 3,400 tons. This initiative is anticipated to unlock high-margin growth and diversify revenue streams away from the cyclical nature of coal, with a projected EBITDA of over $500 million from the Brook Mine by 2028.

2. Increased Metallurgical Coal Production Volume: While Ramaco modestly trimmed its 2025 metallurgical coal production guidance due to current market conditions, the company retains the flexibility to increase production if market conditions improve, potentially exiting the year at an annualized run rate above 5 million tons. Furthermore, Ramaco is poised to add an additional 2 million tons of new production through a deep mine expansion at its Maben complex and continued mining in new sections at its Berwind complex when market clarity emerges. The reported upsizing of the Brook Mine, which also includes coal production, to approximately five million tons of coal per year from a previous two million, also signals future volume growth in this segment.

3. Potential for Stronger Metallurgical Coal Prices: Despite recent declines in metallurgical coal spot prices, the longer-term outlook suggests a potential recovery. Analysts indicate that prices will likely need to rise significantly from current levels to incentivize the development of new supply capacity required to meet future demand. Forecasts suggest a gradual rise into the lower to mid-$200 range by the end of the decade, following a flatter outlook for the next couple of years. Ramaco's position in the first quartile of the U.S. cash cost curve allows it to endure weaker market periods and capitalize more effectively when prices rebound.

4. Government Support and Strategic Initiatives for Critical Minerals: Ramaco's efforts in the rare earth and critical minerals sector are significantly bolstered by ongoing governmental interest and support. The company's strategy involves collaboration with multiple government agencies, and federal policy along with potential price supports are considered crucial for commercial oxide production by 2027 and for driving multi-year growth forecasts. Ramaco has already received a $6.1 million matching grant from the Wyoming Energy Authority for the development of a pilot processing facility, highlighting a clear path for government-backed revenue opportunities as it establishes a domestic supply chain for strategically important minerals.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

• In November 2025, Ramaco Resources priced a $300 million offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2031, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $45 million.
• The net proceeds from this offering are estimated to be approximately $290.9 million, potentially increasing to $334.7 million if the over-allotment option is fully exercised.
• The number of shares outstanding increased by 11.78% year-over-year and 14.05% quarter-over-quarter as of November 2025, reaching 66.00 million shares.

Capital Expenditures

• Capital expenditures in 2022 totaled $79.6 million, with $54.3 million allocated to mine development and exploration and $25.3 million for mining equipment.
• For 2023, capital expenditures were $83 million.
• Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated at $60-70 million, including approximately $20 million for growth initiatives at the Elk Creek and Berwind complexes, aiming to increase the Elk Creek complex's production run-rate to nearly 3 million tons.