Tearsheet

Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $11.685 | Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products

Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $11.685
Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Leisure Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.8%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -90%
3   Key risks
MODG key risks include [1] declining same-venue sales at its Topgolf locations and [2] the significant costs and complexities of its planned separation into two independent companies.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.8%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -90%
5 Key risks
MODG key risks include [1] declining same-venue sales at its Topgolf locations and [2] the significant costs and complexities of its planned separation into two independent companies.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MODG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the 22.2% stock movement for Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: Topgolf Callaway Brands reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025. The company's revenue of $934 million surpassed analyst estimates of $913.2 million, and its non-GAAP loss of $0.05 per share was significantly better than the anticipated loss of $0.22 per share. Adjusted EBITDA also exceeded expectations, coming in at $114.4 million against estimates of $87.63 million.

2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the positive Q3 performance, Topgolf Callaway Brands raised its full-year 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance. This upward revision in outlook signals increased confidence from the company's management in its future financial performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MODG Return13%14%-28%-27%-45%45%-46%
Peers Return46%47%-23%24%5%4%124%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MODG Win Rate67%42%25%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%62%35%58%48%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MODG Max Drawdown-75%0%-38%-49%-49%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-4%-45%-13%-20%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOLF, NKE, DKS, YETI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMODGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven271.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven313.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven725 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven301.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3,255 days1,480 days

Compare to HAS, MAT, YETI, PTON, THO


In The Past

Topgolf Callaway Brands's stock fell -73.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -73.0% loss requires a 271.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)

Better Bets than Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MODG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
MODG_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312024MODGTopgolf Callaway BrandsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-35.1%-5.0%-44.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
MODG_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312024MODGTopgolf Callaway BrandsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-35.1%-5.0%-44.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Topgolf Callaway Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MODGGOLFNKEDKSYETIMedian
NameTopgolf .Acushnet Nike Dick's S.YETI  
Mkt Price11.6883.5565.69207.9642.9665.69
Mkt Cap2.15.097.018.93.55.0
Rev LTM4,0612,52746,44014,8831,8314,061
Op Inc LTM2023123,4201,512221312
FCF LTM341103,00989182110
FCF 3Y Avg-761614,893647179179
CFO LTM3131943,5261,119307313
CFO 3Y Avg3162685,6111,404267316

Growth & Margins

MODGGOLFNKEDKSYETIMedian
NameTopgolf .Acushnet Nike Dick's S.YETI  
Rev Chg LTM-3.6%4.2%-7.1%10.9%1.6%1.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.9%4.1%-0.3%7.1%5.0%4.1%
Rev Chg Q-7.8%6.0%1.1%36.3%1.9%1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.9%1.5%0.3%8.1%0.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM5.0%12.4%7.4%10.2%12.0%10.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.2%12.5%10.2%10.5%10.6%10.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.3%-0.6%-1.1%-0.9%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM7.7%7.7%7.6%7.5%16.8%7.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.6%10.9%11.3%10.4%15.5%10.9%
FCF/Rev LTM0.8%4.4%6.5%0.6%9.9%4.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.8%6.6%9.9%5.0%10.4%6.6%

Valuation

MODGGOLFNKEDKSYETIMedian
NameTopgolf .Acushnet Nike Dick's S.YETI  
Mkt Cap2.15.097.018.93.55.0
P/S0.41.92.21.31.51.5
P/EBIT-1.414.230.1-12.113.1
P/E-1.221.135.618.516.618.5
P/CFO5.624.329.216.98.716.9
Total Yield-86.1%5.9%2.8%5.9%6.0%5.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.2%4.0%3.8%-5.3%3.9%
D/E1.80.20.1-0.10.1
Net D/E1.30.20.0-0.00.1

Returns

MODGGOLFNKEDKSYETIMedian
NameTopgolf .Acushnet Nike Dick's S.YETI  
1M Rtn7.4%6.8%5.1%0.1%19.4%6.8%
3M Rtn27.5%13.4%-8.6%-6.1%21.4%13.4%
6M Rtn39.7%17.7%11.7%20.7%46.7%20.7%
12M Rtn45.6%15.4%-13.8%-5.8%1.0%1.0%
3Y Rtn-42.9%97.3%-34.6%100.2%2.4%2.4%
1M Excs Rtn6.6%6.1%4.4%-0.7%18.7%6.1%
3M Excs Rtn21.6%9.5%-9.7%-9.3%18.5%9.5%
6M Excs Rtn27.3%5.3%-0.7%8.3%34.3%8.3%
12M Excs Rtn36.4%3.9%-24.0%-15.8%-13.9%-13.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-115.3%14.8%-106.6%14.5%-74.1%-74.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Topgolf1,7611,5491,088  
Golf Equipment1,3881,4071,229983979
Active Lifestyle1,1361,040817607722
Total4,2853,9963,1331,5891,701


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Golf Equipment193251204149 
Active Lifestyle11777681 
Topgolf1097758  
Topgolf Goodwill and intangible assets impairment0    
Unallocated other corporate expenses-181-149-126  
Corporate G&A and other   -81 
Goodwill and tradename impairment   -174 
Total238257205-106 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,449,520
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-9.6%
Average Daily Volume4,083,468
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.58
Basic Shares Quantity183,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/202514.3%14.1%22.4%
8/6/20258.8%10.1%5.0%
5/12/2025-17.1%-16.8%-1.1%
2/24/2025-0.3%-7.3%1.9%
11/12/2024-9.2%-10.0%-15.1%
8/7/2024-2.0%-6.7%-16.5%
5/8/2024-6.7%-4.8%-6.1%
2/13/202411.6%6.0%-1.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive799
# Negative171515
Median Positive11.6%10.1%19.5%
Median Negative-6.7%-7.3%-10.0%
Max Positive15.8%24.3%43.3%
Max Negative-17.1%-19.7%-39.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021