Midera Food Processing (MFP)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $42.09 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Midera Food Processing (MFP)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $42.09Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Vegan Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Key risksMFP key risks include [1] a limited operating history as a newly independent company following its recent spin-off. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Vegan Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Key risksMFP key risks include [1] a limited operating history as a newly independent company following its recent spin-off. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Midera Food Processing (MFP) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in Net Earnings in Fiscal Q2 2026. Midera Food Processing reported a substantial year-over-year decrease in net earnings for its fiscal second quarter ended July 4, 2026. Net earnings fell to $10.8 million, a 62.9% drop from $29.1 million in fiscal Q2 2025, despite a 13.2% increase in net sales to $245.4 million and Estimated Standalone Adjusted EBITDA exceeding guidance at $41.8 million to $42.3 million. This sharp reduction in profitability likely raised investor concerns about the company's bottom-line performance post-spin-off.
2. Impact of Cost Inflation. During fiscal Q2 2026, Midera Food Processing noted that the positive impacts of higher sales and acquisitions were "partially offset by the impact of cost inflation, including tariffs." This aligns with broader food processing industry trends for 2026, which indicated continued food inflation and increased operational costs, suggesting potential ongoing margin pressures that could have contributed to investor caution regarding future profitability.
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Midera Food Processing (MFP) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in Net Earnings in Fiscal Q2 2026. Midera Food Processing reported a substantial year-over-year decrease in net earnings for its fiscal second quarter ended July 4, 2026. Net earnings fell to $10.8 million, a 62.9% drop from $29.1 million in fiscal Q2 2025, despite a 13.2% increase in net sales to $245.4 million and Estimated Standalone Adjusted EBITDA exceeding guidance at $41.8 million to $42.3 million. This sharp reduction in profitability likely raised investor concerns about the company's bottom-line performance post-spin-off.
2. Impact of Cost Inflation. During fiscal Q2 2026, Midera Food Processing noted that the positive impacts of higher sales and acquisitions were "partially offset by the impact of cost inflation, including tariffs." This aligns with broader food processing industry trends for 2026, which indicated continued food inflation and increased operational costs, suggesting potential ongoing margin pressures that could have contributed to investor caution regarding future profitability.
3. Mixed Analyst Sentiment Post-Spin-off. As a newly independent public company following its spin-off on July 6, 2026, MFP experienced mixed analyst coverage. While some firms initiated with "outperform" ratings and price targets up to $50.00, other analysts assigned "neutral" ratings and lower price targets, such as Robert W. Baird's $40.00. This mixed sentiment resulted in a consensus "Hold" rating and an average 12-month price target of $45.00, which, coupled with the significant decline in net earnings, may have limited sustained buying interest and contributed to the stock's downward trend.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.3% change in MFP stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.95 | 42.07 | -12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MFP | -12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | 23.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -4.7% | 12.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MFP | ||
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -1.6% | 12.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MFP | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.4% | 12.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MFP | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.6% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.1% | 12.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MFP Return | - | - | - | - | - | 15% | 15% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -26% | 14% | 11% | 8% | -3% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MFP Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 35% | 44% | 56% | 50% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MFP Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -38% | -22% | -17% | -29% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JBTM, ITW, DOV, MIDD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MFP has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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MFP has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Midera Food Processing (MFP)
Midera Food Processing (MFP) is a manufacturer of equipment and automation solutions specifically designed for the food processing industry. The company offers a comprehensive suite of machinery and systems that address various stages of food production, including preparation, cooking, packaging, food handling, and ensuring food safety. MFP aims to provide end-to-end solutions, guiding clients from initial food preparation and thermal processing all the way through to final packaging.
The company's extensive product portfolio includes a variety of specialized equipment such as mixers, make-up lines, and an array of ovens, ranging from batch ovens to advanced continuous processing models like conveyor belt, spiral, and serpentine ovens. Additionally, MFP supplies frying systems and automated thermal processing systems. These solutions are engineered to meet the demanding requirements of industrial-scale food production.
MFP primarily serves the food processing industry, both domestically within the United States and internationally. Its equipment is utilized across a broad spectrum of food categories, including industrial protein products (such as bacon, salami, sausage, poultry, alternative protein, and pet food), bakery products (like bread, buns, cakes, cookies, and pizza), tortillas, and various snack items (including biscuits, crackers, and energy bars). The company distributes its products directly to customers.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Midera Food Processing is the Caterpillar for food factories.
Midera Food Processing is the KitchenAid for industrial food production.
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- Food Preparation Equipment: Machinery designed for mixing, forming, and initial preparation of various food products.
- Thermal Processing Equipment: A comprehensive range of ovens, proofers, and frying systems used for cooking and heat-treating food items.
- Food Handling and Packaging Equipment: Systems that manage the movement, handling, and final packaging of processed food products.
- Automation Solutions: Integrated systems that provide automated processes for efficiency across the food processing workflow.
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Midera Food Processing (MFP) sells its equipment and automation solutions primarily to other companies within the food processing industry, rather than to individual consumers.
Based on the provided background information, the specific names of MFP's major customer companies are not listed. However, MFP's equipment is designed for companies that produce a wide range of food products, indicating that its major customers would fall into the following categories of food processors:
- Companies producing industrial protein products, including bacon, salami, dry cure, sausage, hot dogs, egg bites, poultry, alternative protein, case-ready meats, lunch meat, and pet food.
- Companies manufacturing bakery products such as bread, buns, artisan bread, sweet goods, cakes, muffins, cookies, crackers, pizza, pastries, and tortillas.
- Companies producing various snacks, including biscuits, crackers, energy bars, and portable protein snacks.
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Mark M. Salman, Chief Executive Officer
Mark M. Salman serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Midera Food Processing. Prior to this role, he was the incoming CEO of Midera and the president of the Middleby Food Processing Group. He has been instrumental in building the company's platform, leading over 30 acquisitions since 2005 and developing expertise in deal origination, integration, and operational improvement. Salman has led the platform since the mid-2010s, with a focus on innovation and acquisitions.
Amy Campbell, Chief Financial Officer
Amy Campbell joined Midera Food Processing as Chief Financial Officer when the company became an independent public entity. She brings extensive financial leadership experience in industrial manufacturing and public company operations. Her previous roles include serving as CFO of REV Group, Inc. since April 2024, CFO of ASC Engineered Solutions, and CFO for BrandSafway's Commercial and Industrial Division. Campbell also had a 23-year tenure with Caterpillar, Inc., where she held various segment CFO roles, as well as Vice President of Investor Relations and Chief Audit Officer. She has a proven track record in leading finance organizations through strategic transformations, capital structure optimization, and growth initiatives.
Mark S. Bowie, Chief Operating Officer
Mark S. Bowie is the Chief Operating Officer of Midera Food Processing. He began serving in this executive role effective immediately prior to the consummation of Midera's spin-off from The Middleby Corporation.
Matthew R. Fuchsen, Chief Strategy Officer
Matthew R. Fuchsen holds the position of Chief Strategy Officer at Midera Food Processing. He was appointed to this executive officer role effective immediately prior to the company's spin-off.
Robert A. Nerbonne, Director and Chair of the Board
Robert A. Nerbonne serves as a Director and the Chair of the Board for Midera Food Processing. He is recognized as a former director of Middleby and a veteran chief executive in the commercial foodservice equipment industry.
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The key risks to Midera Food Processing (MFP) include:
- Limited Operating History and Recent Spin-Off: Midera Food Processing, Inc. was incorporated in 2025 and began operating independently of The Middleby Corporation as of July 6, 2026. This recent formation and separation mean the company has a limited operating history as an independent entity, which presents risks related to establishing its own brand, market presence, operational efficiencies, customer base, and financial performance without the long-standing support and infrastructure of a larger parent company.
- Dependence on Capital Expenditures within the Food Processing Industry: As a manufacturer of equipment for the food processing industry, Midera Food Processing's revenue and profitability are directly tied to the capital investment cycles and overall economic health of its customer base. Economic downturns, shifts in consumer food preferences leading to reduced demand for certain processed foods, or overcapacity within the food processing sector could lead to a significant reduction in demand for Midera's equipment, thereby impacting its financial performance.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Want MFP Stock 40% Cheaper? Get Paid 20% A Year While You Wait | 09/10/2026 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,926 |
| Op Inc LTM | 571 |
| FCF LTM | 478 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 774 |
| CFO LTM | 530 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 903 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $42.07 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/07/2026 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $42.73 | |
| DMA Trend | down | |
| Distance from DMA | -1.5% | |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.9% | 56.0% |
| Downside Capture | 196.28 | |
| Upside Capture | 142.85 | |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 25.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.35 | 1.63 | 1.12 | -0.16 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | -1.55 | 1.78 | 0.33 | -0.52 | -0.09 | -0.16 |
| Down Beta | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 2.32 | -1.00 | -0.31 |
| Up Capture | 181% | 157% | 112% | 80% | 31% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 28 | 39 | 39 | 39 |
| Down Capture | 174% | 232% | 204% | 72% | 42% | 25% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MFP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFP | 15.0% | 56.0% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.5% | 17.3% | 0.46 | 12.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 20.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.4% | 28.6% | -0.10 | 24.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.0% | 20.9% | 1.56 | -6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.7% | 0.48 | 11.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.9% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 21.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MFP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFP | 2.8% | 56.0% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.0% | 17.6% | 0.51 | 12.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 20.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 24.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 19.6% | 0.31 | -6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 11.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 51.5% | 0.28 | 21.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MFP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFP | 1.4% | 56.0% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 20.1% | 0.59 | 12.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 20.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 24.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | -6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 11.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.1% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 21.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/13/2026 | 5.8% | 13.6% | -3.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 5.8% | 13.6% | |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | ||
| Max Positive | 5.8% | 13.6% | |
| Max Negative | -3.6% | ||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/13/2026 | 5.8% | 13.6% | -3.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 5.8% | 13.6% | |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | ||
| Max Positive | 5.8% | 13.6% | |
| Max Negative | -3.6% | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/31/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nerbonne, Robert A | Through Irrevocable Trust | Buy | 8192026 | 45.05 | 10,900 | 491,045 | 1,458,314 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nerbonne, Robert A | Through Irrevocable Trust | Buy | 8192026 | 45.05 | 10,900 | 491,045 | 1,458,314 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components Resources |
| Machine Design |
| Modern Machine Shop |
| Industrial Equipment News (IEN) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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