Tearsheet

Mercury General (MCY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $90.48 | Market Cap: $5.0 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Mercury General (MCY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $90.48
Market Cap: $5.0 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 21%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 21%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MCY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for Mercury General (MCY) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, specific details explaining a past 17.5% stock movement within this future timeframe are not available. However, based on the most recent available information, here are some key points related to Mercury General (MCY)'s recent performance and news, which generally influence stock movements: 1. 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: Mercury General reported strong third-quarter earnings in November 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.86, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $2.15. This positive earnings surprise could contribute to investor confidence and stock appreciation. 2. 2. Analyst Upgrades and Bullish Sentiment: Wall Street analysts have shown a bullish sentiment towards Mercury General, with an average rating of "Strong Buy" and a consensus target price of $100.00. This is supported by upgrades from firms like Raymond James and Zacks. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MCY Return13%6%-33%14%82%40%135%
Peers Return4%27%11%16%31%12%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MCY Win Rate58%58%42%50%75%70% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%53%62%68%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MCY Max Drawdown-29%-2%-45%-17%-1%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-6%-11%-14%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMCYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven139.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven741 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven245 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven512 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2879 days1480 days

Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV


In The Past

Mercury General's stock fell -58.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/6/2021. A -58.3% loss requires a 139.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mercury General (MCY)

Better Bets than Mercury General (MCY)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mercury General

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MCYHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameMercury .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Price90.51133.0458.19227.18295.05284.27180.11
Mkt Cap5.037.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
Rev LTM5,82327,69213,29782,37658,90048,40938,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM9915,8656,72716,47213,3219,9858,356
FCF 3Y Avg7404,9226,25012,35013,4098,6827,466
CFO LTM1,0485,9886,87216,80013,3219,9858,428
CFO 3Y Avg7865,1096,38812,63413,4098,6827,535

Growth & Margins

MCYHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameMercury .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Rev Chg LTM6.2%6.9%7.4%21.5%6.7%6.7%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.4%8.6%-0.7%20.0%12.2%10.1%11.2%
Rev Chg Q3.6%6.4%16.8%21.3%8.2%4.8%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%1.6%4.0%4.9%2.2%1.2%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM18.0%21.6%51.7%20.4%22.6%20.6%21.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.4%19.6%51.9%18.0%24.8%19.4%19.5%
FCF/Rev LTM17.0%21.2%50.6%20.0%22.6%20.6%20.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.5%18.9%50.8%17.6%24.8%19.4%19.1%

Valuation

MCYHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameMercury .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Cap5.037.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
P/S0.81.41.11.91.91.31.3
P/EBIT8.38.19.111.78.58.18.4
P/E10.710.514.215.011.610.711.1
P/CFO4.56.32.29.38.46.36.3
Total Yield10.1%11.1%10.6%8.5%10.0%10.2%10.1%
Dividend Yield0.7%1.6%3.6%1.8%1.3%0.8%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg21.9%15.8%50.1%10.3%12.9%17.2%16.5%
D/E0.10.10.30.00.20.10.1
Net D/E-0.2-0.5-1.8-0.0-0.2-1.4-0.4

Returns

MCYHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameMercury .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
1M Rtn18.7%7.5%5.1%11.5%6.0%6.2%6.9%
3M Rtn18.0%0.4%-1.7%-7.9%6.4%3.2%1.8%
6M Rtn43.1%4.9%9.4%-19.4%1.8%5.4%5.1%
12M Rtn20.0%12.0%-4.2%-11.7%4.5%10.9%7.7%
3Y Rtn169.5%85.9%75.3%76.6%40.7%58.9%75.9%
1M Excs Rtn18.8%7.6%5.1%11.6%6.1%6.2%6.9%
3M Excs Rtn9.4%-6.1%-8.2%-14.1%0.4%-3.2%-4.7%
6M Excs Rtn28.4%-9.9%-5.3%-34.1%-12.9%-9.3%-9.6%
12M Excs Rtn3.3%-3.4%-18.6%-27.3%-10.0%-4.9%-7.5%
3Y Excs Rtn101.4%16.1%-0.1%7.2%-29.7%-11.1%3.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,947,746
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.1%
Average Daily Volume266,849
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.30
Basic Shares Quantity55,389,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Joseph Victor GeorgePresident & COO5282025Buy59.9515,000899,252900,750Form
1Zhang Ximeng SimonSee Remarks5192025Buy61.911,50092,86692,866Form
2Ribisi Mark AllanPresident of AIS subsidiary1082025Buy64.71553,55944,006Form
3Sullivan Heidi C.VP/Chief Human Capital Officer12042024Sell77.281,07683,153 Form