McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (7/16/2026): $266.5 | Market Cap: $189.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (7/16/2026): $266.5Market Cap: $189.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.0 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.9x Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.0 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.9x |
| Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
Qualitative Assessment
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McDonald's (MCD) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening consumer spending, particularly among lower-income customers, negatively impacted traffic.
McDonald's fiscal Q1 2026 comparable sales in the U.S. were driven by higher average check size rather than increased customer traffic, indicating underlying weakness in demand. Management noted that lower-income consumers continued to reduce spending due to elevated fuel prices and broader inflationary pressures. This cautious outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 unsettled the market. As a result, KeyBanc significantly reduced its near-term U.S. same-store sales expectations for fiscal Q2 2026 to 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1.8%.
2. Persistent inflation led to increased operating costs and compressed profit margins.
McDonald's faced ongoing inflationary pressures, with elevated beef prices globally and higher food, labor, and operating expenses impacting profitability for both the company and its franchisees. In fiscal Q1 2026, the company's gross margins compressed to 56%, marking the lowest reading in the preceding eight quarters, and margins at U.S. company-operated restaurants were below expectations. These rising costs contributed to investor concerns about future earnings growth.
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McDonald's (MCD) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening consumer spending, particularly among lower-income customers, negatively impacted traffic.
McDonald's fiscal Q1 2026 comparable sales in the U.S. were driven by higher average check size rather than increased customer traffic, indicating underlying weakness in demand. Management noted that lower-income consumers continued to reduce spending due to elevated fuel prices and broader inflationary pressures. This cautious outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 unsettled the market. As a result, KeyBanc significantly reduced its near-term U.S. same-store sales expectations for fiscal Q2 2026 to 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1.8%.
2. Persistent inflation led to increased operating costs and compressed profit margins.
McDonald's faced ongoing inflationary pressures, with elevated beef prices globally and higher food, labor, and operating expenses impacting profitability for both the company and its franchisees. In fiscal Q1 2026, the company's gross margins compressed to 56%, marking the lowest reading in the preceding eight quarters, and margins at U.S. company-operated restaurants were below expectations. These rising costs contributed to investor concerns about future earnings growth.
3. Multiple analyst downgrades and revised price targets reflected a more cautious outlook.
Several financial analysts lowered their price targets for McDonald's during the fiscal second quarter of 2026. KeyBanc, for instance, cut its price target to $315 from $330 on June 29, 2026, citing a soft sales outlook. JPMorgan reduced its target to $305 from $325 on May 11, 2026, and RBC Capital lowered its target to $305 from $330 on May 8, 2026, both following the fiscal Q1 report and adjusting for the current economic environment. This trend of downward revisions in price targets contributed to negative investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.2% change in MCD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.70 | 264.95 | -14.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,883 | 27,445 | 2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.9% | 31.6% | -0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 21.7 | -15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 711 | 711 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -14.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.1% | -9.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.4% | 17.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.2% change in MCD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 301.88 | 264.95 | -12.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,263 | 27,445 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.0% | 31.6% | -1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 21.7 | -15.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 713 | 711 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -12.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 1.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.8% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.1% change in MCD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 285.25 | 264.95 | -7.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,707 | 27,445 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.7% | 31.6% | -0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.0 | 21.7 | -13.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 715 | 711 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.2% | 0.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.3% | 21.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.7% change in MCD stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 278.05 | 264.95 | -4.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,414 | 27,445 | 17.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.4% | 31.6% | 7.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.6 | 21.7 | -26.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 731 | 711 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -4.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.3% | 18.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 40.9% | 23.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCD Return | 28% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 8% | -11% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -5% | 26% | 14% | -5% | 12% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCD Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 62% | 57% | 43% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCD Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -17% | -17% | -11% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -29% | -19% | -19% | -26% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 140 days |
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About McDonald's (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is a globally recognized fast-food chain that operates and franchises restaurants in the United States and numerous international markets. As of late 2021, the company managed over 40,000 restaurants worldwide, making it one of the largest restaurant chains globally. Founded in 1940 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald's has built its business around providing quick-service meals to a broad customer base.
The core of McDonald's offerings includes its iconic hamburgers and cheeseburgers, alongside popular chicken sandwiches, nuggets, and wraps. Complementing these main dishes are its well-known fries, salads, and a variety of desserts like shakes, sundaes, and soft-serve cones, plus bakery items. The menu is further diversified by a breakfast selection featuring items such as biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes, catering to morning diners. A wide range of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages are also standard fare.
McDonald's primarily serves the mass market, appealing to a wide demographic seeking convenient, affordable, and consistent fast food. Its extensive global footprint means it caters to diners across diverse cultures and geographies, from families to individuals, students to professionals, throughout the day with its varied meal options, including breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe McDonald's:
- Coca-Cola for prepared meals: Just as Coca-Cola is a globally ubiquitous and highly consistent brand for beverages, McDonald's is the same for quick, standardized prepared meals.
- Walmart for quick meals: Similar to how Walmart provides a vast, convenient, and consistent option for everyday retail needs, McDonald's does the same for affordable and accessible quick meals.
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- Hamburgers and Cheeseburgers: Classic beef patties served in buns with various toppings.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: A variety of poultry-based options, including crispy or grilled sandwiches and bite-sized nuggets.
- Fries: McDonald's signature golden, crispy potato sticks.
- Salads and Wraps: Lighter meal options including fresh greens and various fillings wrapped in tortillas.
- Breakfast Menu Items: A dedicated selection for morning meals, featuring items like hotcakes, breakfast sandwiches, and burritos.
- Desserts and Shakes: Sweet treats such as ice cream sundaes, soft-serve cones, milkshakes, and baked goods.
- Beverages: A broad array of drinks including soft drinks, coffee, and other non-alcoholic options.
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McDonald's (MCD) primarily sells to individual consumers rather than other companies. Based on its operations as a fast-food restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:
- Families and Children: A significant portion of McDonald's customer base consists of families, often attracted by child-friendly menu items like the Happy Meal, play areas in some locations, and an overall family-oriented dining experience.
- Individuals Seeking Convenience and Speed: This category includes commuters, people on lunch breaks, travelers, and anyone looking for a quick, easily accessible, and consistent meal solution, particularly during busy times or when on the go.
- Value-Conscious Consumers: Customers who prioritize affordability and seek budget-friendly meal options are a key demographic for McDonald's, often utilizing value menus, combo deals, and promotions to get a satisfying meal at a lower cost.
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- Tyson Foods (TSN)
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)
- JBS S.A. (JBSS3.SA)
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Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Kempczinski joined McDonald's in 2015 as Executive Vice President for strategy, business development, and innovation. He was promoted to President of McDonald's USA in October 2016 and became CEO in November 2019, also assuming the role of Chairman of the Board in 2024. Prior to McDonald's, he accumulated over 25 years of experience in consumer goods, holding senior positions at Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, and Kraft Foods, where he served as Executive Vice President of Growth Initiatives and President of International. There is no information indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Ian Borden, Executive Vice President, Global Chief Financial Officer
Ian Borden has been with McDonald's for nearly 30 years. He began his career in the finance department in Canada and has held various international leadership and P&L roles, including Chief Financial Officer of McDonald's Russia and Eastern Europe, Managing Director of McDonald's Ukraine, and President of International Developmental Licensed and Foundational Markets. Most recently, he was President, International, overseeing all business outside of the U.S., before becoming Global Chief Financial Officer. There is no information provided indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Joe Erlinger, President, McDonald's USA
Joe Erlinger serves as the President of McDonald's USA.
Heidi B. Capozzi, Executive Vice President, Global Chief People Officer
Heidi B. Capozzi joined McDonald's in April 2020. Before McDonald's, she was the Senior Vice President of Human Resources at The Boeing Company since 2016. Her prior experience also includes leadership roles in human resources and communications at Northrop Grumman and TRW's automotive and defense business, as well as human resources, internal services, and quality for Insitu.
Warren Anderson, Senior Vice President, Global Chief Supply Chain Officer
Warren Anderson's career with McDonald's spans more than 15 years. He most recently served as Corporate Senior Vice President, Global Supply Chain, collaborating with over 100 international markets. His responsibilities include the supply and cost management of food, packaging, logistics, toys, and equipment for McDonald's restaurants worldwide. He contributed to achieving a $1 billion global cost savings target and ensured supply chain resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The key risks to McDonald's (MCD) business are:
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Inflation and Pressured Consumers Leading to Margin Compression: McDonald's faces significant challenges from stubborn inflation, which drives up input costs such as food (specifically beef) and labor expenses. This pressure on operational costs, particularly due to minimum wage hikes, directly impacts the company's margins. Simultaneously, a pressured consumer base, especially lower-income quick-service restaurant (QSR) consumers, is leading to reduced traffic. McDonald's must balance the need to offer value to attract and retain customers with increasing costs, which can compress profitability if prices cannot be raised sufficiently.
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Geopolitical Instability and International Market Risks: As a global company with extensive international operations, McDonald's is exposed to geopolitical instability in key international markets. This includes navigating diverse economic systems, political crises, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, which can significantly affect profitability and financial reporting. Additionally, varying foreign taxation policies in different countries pose challenges for international business expansion and operations.
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Intensifying Competition and Maintaining Customer Relevance: McDonald's operates in a highly competitive fast-food industry. The company faces ongoing challenges from competitors, which can impact its market positioning and foot traffic. To remain successful, McDonald's must continuously differentiate its customer experience, stay relevant with evolving consumer preferences (such as the demand for healthier menu options), and execute strategic plans effectively to ensure sustained customer satisfaction and prevent sales cannibalization from its own expanding store footprint.
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- Shift in consumer preferences towards healthier, plant-based, and sustainably sourced food options, challenging McDonald's traditional menu and brand perception.
- Increasing reliance on and power of third-party food delivery platforms, leading to eroded profit margins, loss of direct customer relationship and data, and increased platform leverage over McDonald's operations and pricing.
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- Burgers and Cheeseburgers: The global hamburger market is valued at USD 759.45 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,168.48 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2026 to 2035. In the U.S., the burger restaurant market size was approximately USD 173.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 177.7 billion in 2026. The burgers/sandwich segment contributed over 43% of the revenue share in the global fast food market in 2025.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: The global fried chicken market was valued at about USD 44.56 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 78.92 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.33% from 2025 to 2035. The U.S. quick-service chicken restaurant industry generated roughly USD 60–65 billion in annual revenue as of 2025, and its market size is estimated at USD 63.7 billion in 2026. This segment is projected to grow to approximately USD 67.2 billion by 2030.
- Beverages (Soft Drinks and Other Beverages): The global non-alcoholic beverages market was estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 2.85 trillion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 3.78% from 2026 to 2035. The U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market size was estimated at USD 280.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 457.0 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- Coffee: The global coffee shop market size was approximately USD 220.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 290.24 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. coffee shop market value was around USD 49.5 billion in 2023 and approximately USD 74.3 billion in revenue in 2025. For the broader U.S. coffee market, the size is projected to grow from USD 112.86 billion in 2025 to reach USD 175.27 billion by 2035.
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McDonald's (MCD) is strategically focused on several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These initiatives are part of its "Accelerating the Arches" strategy, emphasizing restaurant expansion, digital transformation, menu innovation, and the introduction of new restaurant concepts.
- Aggressive Restaurant Expansion: McDonald's plans its fastest period of growth in its history, aiming to expand its global restaurant count to 50,000 by 2027. This includes opening over 2,100 new restaurants worldwide in 2024, with significant development targeted in international markets such as China, alongside expansion in the United States and International Operated Markets (IOM). This substantial increase in its footprint is expected to contribute to systemwide sales growth.
- Digital Transformation and Loyalty Program Growth: The company is doubling down on its "3 Ds" – Digital, Delivery, and Drive-Thru – with a strong emphasis on enhancing its digital ecosystem. A core component is the MyMcDonald's Rewards program, which McDonald's aims to grow to 250 million active users by 2027, projecting to double loyalty program sales to $45 billion. This digital focus involves upgrading the McDonald's app, introducing web-based ordering, personalizing offers, and deploying a new universal software platform across its digital channels to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is leveraging AI solutions to optimize drive-thru speeds and personalized app offers.
- Menu Innovation and Value Focus: McDonald's is committed to enhancing its core menu, notably through its "Best Burger" initiative, which involves over 50 changes to improve burger quality with hotter patties, softer buns, and better-melted cheese, rolling out nationwide. Beyond core improvements, the company plans to introduce new menu items and limited-time offers (LTOs) and is testing a larger burger option. A significant driver for attracting and retaining customers, especially in a pressured consumer spending environment, is its continued focus on value and affordability through initiatives like the $5 Meal Deal and Every Day Affordable Price (EDAP) menus.
- Launch of New Restaurant Concepts: To tap into new market segments and drive growth, McDonald's is introducing innovative spin-off concepts such as CosMc's. This new drive-thru-only format, focusing on customizable beverages and snacks, is designed to compete in the growing afternoon snack and beverage category, with 10 locations planned in 2024.
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Share Repurchases
- McDonald's repurchased $2.056 billion of its stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $2.824 billion in 2024.
- Share repurchases amounted to $3.054 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- McDonald's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the last few years, indicating that share repurchases have outweighed any share issuances. For instance, shares outstanding decreased from 744.8 million in 2021 to 712.1 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, the company's cash used for investing activities increased, primarily due to an increased ownership stake in McDonald's China business and the acquisition of McDonald's business in Israel.
- Long-term investments by McDonald's were $2.71 billion in 2024, marking a significant increase from $1.08 billion in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are projected to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority directed towards new unit openings across the U.S. and international markets, and supporting strategic growth drivers like technology and digital enhancements.
- McDonald's capital expenditures were $3.365 billion in 2025, primarily for new restaurant openings, with approximately 2,275 new restaurants opened globally in 2025.
- Capital expenditures were approximately $2.8 billion in 2024, mainly allocated to new restaurant openings and reinvestment in existing restaurants.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| McDonald's Stock at Support Zone - Bargain or Trap? | 06/18/2026 | |
| EAT, QSR Beat McDonald's Stock on Price & Growth | 06/09/2026 | |
| McDonald's Stock Capital Return Hits $36 Bil | 06/04/2026 | |
| McDonald's Earnings Notes | 05/06/2026 | |
| Should You Buy McDonald's Stock? | 05/02/2026 | |
| McDonald's Stock Slides 5.6% With A 5-Day Losing Spree | 03/24/2026 | |
| How Low Can McDonald's Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| The Real Risk Squeezing McDonald’s Stock | 07/03/2026 | |
| McDonald’s Stock Testing Price Floor – Buy Now? | 06/18/2026 | |
| Is McDonald’s Stock Undervalued Stock Or Value Trap? | 06/04/2026 | |
| Between McDonald’s and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out? | 06/04/2026 | |
| YUM, MCD Look Smarter Buy Than Starbucks Stock | 06/02/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 128.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 43.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,864 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,576 |
| FCF LTM | 1,606 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,460 |
| CFO LTM | 2,115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,928 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 43.6 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.8 |
| P/EBIT | 19.5 |
| P/E | 28.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 13,633 | 12,628 | 12,382 | 11,297 | 12,220 |
| United States (US) | 10,825 | 10,631 | 10,568 | 9,588 | 8,865 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 2,427 | 2,661 | 2,543 | 2,297 | 2,138 |
| Total | 26,885 | 25,920 | 25,493 | 23,183 | 23,223 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 6,382 | 5,946 | 5,831 | 3,926 | 5,131 |
| United States (US) | 5,808 | 5,733 | 5,694 | 5,136 | 4,755 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 203 | 33 | 121 | 309 | 471 |
| Total | 12,393 | 11,712 | 11,646 | 9,371 | 10,356 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 27,487 | 23,491 | 23,947 | 21,979 | 24,186 |
| United States (US) | 23,008 | 22,547 | 22,477 | 21,793 | 21,280 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 9,020 | 9,143 | 9,723 | 6,663 | 8,388 |
| Total | 59,515 | 55,181 | 56,147 | 50,436 | 53,854 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $264.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 188.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $276.82 | $299.29 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.3% | -11.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 22.0% | 17.6% |
| Downside Capture | -28.74 | -3.22 |
| Upside Capture | -77.71 | -14.00 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -14.7% | 0.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.30 | -0.34 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Up Beta | 0.72 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| Down Beta | -0.74 | -0.43 | -0.60 | -0.07 | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| Up Capture | -58% | -64% | -34% | -17% | -4% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 30 | 59 | 126 | 379 |
| Down Capture | -29% | -38% | -6% | 5% | -1% | 52% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 33 | 66 | 126 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | -10.1% | 17.6% | -0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.9% | 18.7% | 0.17 | 20.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.9% | 12.6% | 1.30 | 0.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 27.9% | 0.67 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.1% | 18.9% | 1.22 | -18.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.6% | 13.9% | 0.61 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | -5.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 4.8% | 17.5% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.1% | 23.9% | 0.21 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | -1.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 41.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.8% | 53.5% | 0.44 | 7.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 10.8% | 20.5% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 48.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 52.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.1% | 16.1% | 0.56 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.7% | 18.0% | 0.29 | 13.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 54.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.9% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 11.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.2% | -1.6% | -8.8% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.7% | -2.6% | -1.0% |
| 10/30/2023 | 1.7% | 4.7% | 10.3% |
| 7/27/2023 | 1.2% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.6% | 1.5% | -2.3% |
| 1/31/2023 | -1.3% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
| 10/27/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% |
| 7/26/2022 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | -0.4% | 5.0% | -0.2% |
| 10/27/2021 | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | -1.9% | -3.8% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 1/28/2021 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/9/2020 | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.2% |
| 7/28/2020 | -2.5% | -3.4% | 5.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 284.32 | 5,252 | 1,493,249 | 2,198,900 | Form |
| 2 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5302026 | 278.36 | 2,763 | 769,109 | 1,744,794 | Form |
| 3 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 280.11 | 333 | 93,277 | 2,166,340 | Form |
| 4 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 302.72 | 333 | 100,806 | 2,442,009 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4122026 | 307.00 | 2,626 | 806,182 | 2,578,766 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 284.32 | 5,252 | 1,493,249 | 2,198,900 | Form |
| 2 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5302026 | 278.36 | 2,763 | 769,109 | 1,744,794 | Form |
| 3 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 280.11 | 333 | 93,277 | 2,166,340 | Form |
| 4 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 302.72 | 333 | 100,806 | 2,442,009 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4122026 | 307.00 | 2,626 | 806,182 | 2,578,766 | Form |
| 6 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 313.47 | 333 | 104,386 | 2,633,114 | Form |
| 7 | Baroni, Dario | President, IDL | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 323.77 | 600 | 194,262 | 344,190 | Form |
| 8 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 328.34 | 2,626 | 862,221 | 2,867,357 | Form |
| 9 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 330.43 | 333 | 110,033 | 2,885,609 | Form |
| 10 | Banner, Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 333.29 | 6,201 | 2,066,596 | 763,589 | Form |
| 11 | Kempczinski, Christopher J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 333.54 | 26,276 | 8,764,097 | 7,638,113 | Form |
| 12 | Kempczinski, Christopher J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 331.35 | 26,277 | 8,706,884 | 7,587,961 | Form |
| 13 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 331.00 | 4,692 | 1,553,052 | 2,052,054 | Form |
| 14 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 325.25 | 2,626 | 854,106 | 1,755,739 | Form |
| 15 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 306.58 | 2,626 | 805,079 | 1,654,956 | Form |
| 16 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 320.00 | 2,486 | 795,520 | 2,005,763 | Form |
| 17 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 315.00 | 658 | 207,270 | 1,952,861 | Form |
| 18 | Steijaert, Manuel JM | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 305.50 | 6,567 | 2,006,218 | 1,407,164 | Form |
| 19 | Borden, Ian Frederick | EVP - CFO | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 310.00 | 17,134 | 5,311,540 | 8,169,476 | Form |
| 20 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 305.82 | 3,195 | 977,095 | 1,861,869 | Form |
| 21 | Steijaert, Manuel JM | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 300.42 | 13,134 | 3,945,716 | 1,383,765 | Form |
| 22 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 315.00 | 1,000 | 315,000 | 2,160,131 | Form |
| 23 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 315.00 | 4,716 | 1,485,540 | 2,475,131 | Form |
| 24 | Banner, Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 310.00 | 1,000 | 310,000 | 30,585 | Form |
| 25 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 310.00 | 2,487 | 770,970 | 2,713,743 | Form |
| 26 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 303.50 | 976 | 296,216 | 2,392,053 | Form |
| 27 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 299.49 | 939 | 281,221 | 2,780,202 | Form |
| 28 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 300.00 | 1,000 | 300,000 | 2,657,268 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 16, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 52.2% | 362 | Hold | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $126.6 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $16.0 Mil | 3.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $25.6 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.5 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $6.9 Mil | 1.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.3 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $104.1 Mil | 0.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $76.9 Mil | 2.8% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 52.2% | 362 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $126.6 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $104.1 Mil | 0.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $25.6 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $16.0 Mil | 3.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.5 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $6.9 Mil | 1.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.3 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
MCD Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive as McDonald's is gaining market share in a difficult consumer environment, reinforcing its competitive leadership. While traffic has softened, a clear strategy focused on value and new beverage platforms provides a path to re-acceleration. The high-margin franchise model, with a 46% operating margin, provides significant financial stability during this period of uncertainty.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise Royalty & Real Estate + Transactional Retail(Systemwide Franchise Sales * Blended Royalty/Rent Rate) + (Sales from Company-Owned Restaurants) Growth in high-margin franchise royalty and rent streams, driven by systemwide sales growth and new unit openings.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; the company is gaining share in its top markets while competitors struggle, leveraging its scale to win on affordability.
- Gained market share in nearly all of its top 10 markets in Q1 2026.
- Global comparable sales increased 3.8% in Q1 2026 amid a challenging environment.
- The business model generates a 46% operating margin, funding its value leadership.
- A plan is in place to expand to 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027.
PRIMARY RISK
A prolonged downturn for low-income households could cause sustained negative traffic, even with value offerings. This would pressure franchisee profitability, which is the core of McDonald's earnings.
- Q1 U.S. comparable sales growth of 3.9% was driven entirely by price increases.
- Management reported that comparable sales were 'slightly negative in April' in key segments.
- QSR traffic from lower-income consumers was previously declining nearly double digits.
- The stock fell - after the last earnings report, showing market concern.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Global Comparable Sales Growth | 3.8% for Q1 2026 - Decelerating | Global comparable sales growth peaked in Q4 2025 and decelerated in the most recent quarter. Management commentary points to a "challenging environment" but notes the company is gaining market share, suggesting the slowdown may be industry-wide. The company also guided to a soft start to Q2, with management stating that comp sales in the U.S. and IOM segments were "slightly negative in April." |
| 90-Day Active Loyalty Users | "nearly 210 million" 90-day active users as of year-end 2025 - Accelerating | The company is showing rapid user acquisition and is on track toward its stated goal of 250 million 90-day active users by the end of 2027. This metric is a key pillar of the company's long-term growth strategy. |
| Systemwide Sales Growth (Constant Currency) | 6% (Q1 2026) | Represents the sales growth across all restaurants, both franchised and company-owned, including new openings. It is a key indicator of the brand's overall expansion and market penetration. |
| New Restaurant Openings (Gross) | c. 2,600 planned (Full Year 2026) | The pace of physical expansion and future revenue growth potential. The company is targeting 50,000 total restaurants by the end of 2027. |
Share Gains vs. Decelerating Sales
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe gaining market share is the most important metric in a downturn, proving the moat is strengthening and positioning the company for outsized growth when the consumer recovers.
CORE TENSION
Can market share gains offset the 3.8% comparable sales growth, which decelerated from 5.7% and prompted a - stock drop, or is the consumer pressure too great?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls, cautiously. While sales growth is slowing, gaining share is a sign of fundamental strength that should lead to a stronger recovery.
BEAR VIEW
Bears focus on the deceleration in global comparable sales from 5.7% to 3.8% and negative U.S. traffic, arguing that the overall market is shrinking faster than McDonald's can gain share.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/4/2026 | Negative Earnings Reaction Watch: Decelerating revenue growth, margin pressure from inventory build-up, and commentary on the low-income consumer's health. |
8/4/2026 | Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: McDonald's scheduled to report quarterly earnings for the period ending 6/30/2026. |
10/27/2026 - 11/2/2026 | Intensifying Value Competition Watch: Peer earnings reports from SBUX, CMG, QSR, and YUM for commentary on promotional intensity and success of value offerings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Starbucks Earnings Watch: Peer Starbucks (SBUX) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Chipotle Earnings Watch: Peer Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Peer QSR Earnings Watch: Peer Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Yum Brands Earnings Watch: Peer Yum Brands (YUM) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
September 23 | Investor Day Disappointment Watch: Updates on long-term growth targets, capital allocation, and the financial rationale for accelerating restaurant openings to 50,000. |
No set date | Muted New Product Impact Watch: Management commentary on traffic trends, product mix, and customer reception to the new beverage platform during the next earnings call. |
September 23 | Investor Day Event Watch: Company to hold an Investor Day in Chicago to share strategic updates. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-07 | BT21 Happy Meal Collaboration Details: McDonald's announced a new Happy Meal collaboration with BT21, the LINE FRIENDS characters associated with the music group BTS. | -0.4% $279.50 -> $278.25 |
2026-06-01 | New Growth Strategy Unveiled Details: At its Worldwide Convention, McDonald's unveiled a new global growth plan focused on new restaurant design, improved food and drinks, consumer-led innovation, and better customer service. | -0.3% $277.32 -> $276.36 |
2026-05-13 | Stadium Naming Rights Deal Details: The company announced its first major U.S. professional sports stadium naming rights partnership. The new Chicago Fire FC stadium will be called McDonald's Park and is set to open in 2028. | +0.0% $272.99 -> $273.12 |
2026-05-07 | Negative Q1 Earnings Reaction Details: Following its Q1 2026 earnings report, the stock had a negative two-day reaction of -3.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | -2.9% $282.19 -> $273.89 |
2026-04-21 | Value Menu Reworked Details: News reports indicated McDonald's was reworking its value menu, introducing deals under $3 to contend with potential margin compression and rising costs. | -2.2% $304.87 -> $298.05 |
2026-02-11 | Positive Q4 Earnings Reaction Details: The company reported fourth quarter 2025 results, leading to a positive two-day stock reaction of 2.0% versus -2.0% for the S&P 500. | +1.9% $321.98 -> $328.01 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MCD trades at roughly 24% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
SBUX - Starbucks
Higher-income consumer exposureStarbucks provides exposure to a more resilient, higher-income consumer, insulating it from the value-segment pressures currently affecting McDonald's. Its operating model is company-owned, offering different leverage.
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill
Fast-casual quality perceptionChipotle competes in the 'fast casual' segment, appealing to consumers who prioritize ingredient quality over absolute price. This offers a different growth profile based on brand perception rather than value leadership.
A high-margin real estate and brand-royalty collector that leverages its global scale to generate stable, predictable cash flows from a vast network of franchisee tenants.
McDonald's core business is not selling burgers, but franchising its powerful brand and leasing its vast real estate portfolio to independent operators. This model, covering ~95% of its restaurants, insulates it from direct operational costs and volatility, yielding high operating margins (46%). Growth is a function of increasing system-wide sales (driven by value, marketing, and innovation) which boosts royalty streams, and accelerating new restaurant openings, which expands the royalty and rent base.
Sustained positive comparable sales, market share gains, successful national rollouts of new platforms like beverages, and hitting or exceeding new restaurant opening targets.
A decline in franchisee profitability and cash flow, sustained negative comparable sales, loss of perceived value leadership to competitors, or significant legal challenges to the franchise model.
Short-term commodity cost fluctuations, performance of a single limited-time menu offer, or stock price reactions to individual earnings reports that don't alter the long-term strategy.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful execution of the revamped 'McValue' platform and the national launch of the new beverage platform, which are designed to drive traffic and check growth in a challenging consumer environment.
United States (US)
$10.8B TTM (40% of Total) · 54% MarginWhat It Is
Operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States. Revenues consist of sales from company-operated restaurants and fees (rent, royalties) from franchised restaurants.
Who Pays & How
Franchisees pay for the brand strength, operating system, and real estate provided by McDonald's. Consumers pay for the convenience, value, and consistent menu offerings.
Competition
International Operated Markets
$13.6B TTM (51% of Total) · 47% MarginWhat It Is
Operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in established international markets such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.
Who Pays & How
Franchisees and consumers pay for the same reasons as in the U.S. segment: brand power, operational systems, real estate, and a consistent value-oriented menu.
Competition
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate
$2.4B TTM (9% of Total) · 8% MarginWhat It Is
Licenses the brand to developmental licensees and affiliates in over 75 countries, including markets like China and Japan. This segment also includes corporate activities.
Who Pays & How
Licensees pay royalties for the right to operate and develop McDonald's restaurants in their markets. They are responsible for providing their own capital, including real estate.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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