McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $263.66 | Market Cap: $187.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $263.66Market Cap: $187.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.0 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.8x Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.0 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.8x |
| Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
Qualitative Assessment
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McDonald's (MCD) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening consumer spending, particularly among lower-income customers, negatively impacted traffic.
McDonald's fiscal Q1 2026 comparable sales in the U.S. were driven by higher average check size rather than increased customer traffic, indicating underlying weakness in demand. Management noted that lower-income consumers continued to reduce spending due to elevated fuel prices and broader inflationary pressures. This cautious outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 unsettled the market. As a result, KeyBanc significantly reduced its near-term U.S. same-store sales expectations for fiscal Q2 2026 to 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1.8%.
2. Persistent inflation led to increased operating costs and compressed profit margins.
McDonald's faced ongoing inflationary pressures, with elevated beef prices globally and higher food, labor, and operating expenses impacting profitability for both the company and its franchisees. In fiscal Q1 2026, the company's gross margins compressed to 56%, marking the lowest reading in the preceding eight quarters, and margins at U.S. company-operated restaurants were below expectations. These rising costs contributed to investor concerns about future earnings growth.
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McDonald's (MCD) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening consumer spending, particularly among lower-income customers, negatively impacted traffic.
McDonald's fiscal Q1 2026 comparable sales in the U.S. were driven by higher average check size rather than increased customer traffic, indicating underlying weakness in demand. Management noted that lower-income consumers continued to reduce spending due to elevated fuel prices and broader inflationary pressures. This cautious outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 unsettled the market. As a result, KeyBanc significantly reduced its near-term U.S. same-store sales expectations for fiscal Q2 2026 to 0.5% from a previous estimate of 1.8%.
2. Persistent inflation led to increased operating costs and compressed profit margins.
McDonald's faced ongoing inflationary pressures, with elevated beef prices globally and higher food, labor, and operating expenses impacting profitability for both the company and its franchisees. In fiscal Q1 2026, the company's gross margins compressed to 56%, marking the lowest reading in the preceding eight quarters, and margins at U.S. company-operated restaurants were below expectations. These rising costs contributed to investor concerns about future earnings growth.
3. Multiple analyst downgrades and revised price targets reflected a more cautious outlook.
Several financial analysts lowered their price targets for McDonald's during the fiscal second quarter of 2026. KeyBanc, for instance, cut its price target to $315 from $330 on June 29, 2026, citing a soft sales outlook. JPMorgan reduced its target to $305 from $325 on May 11, 2026, and RBC Capital lowered its target to $305 from $330 on May 8, 2026, both following the fiscal Q1 report and adjusting for the current economic environment. This trend of downward revisions in price targets contributed to negative investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.6% change in MCD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.70 | 263.57 | -14.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,883 | 27,445 | 2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.9% | 31.6% | -0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 21.6 | -15.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 711 | 711 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -14.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | -10.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.6% | 19.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.7% change in MCD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 301.88 | 263.57 | -12.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,263 | 27,445 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.0% | 31.6% | -1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 21.6 | -15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 713 | 711 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -12.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 0.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.3% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.6% change in MCD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 285.25 | 263.57 | -7.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,707 | 27,445 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.7% | 31.6% | -0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.0 | 21.6 | -13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 715 | 711 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -7.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | -0.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.5% | 21.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.2% change in MCD stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 278.05 | 263.57 | -5.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,414 | 27,445 | 17.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.4% | 31.6% | 7.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.6 | 21.6 | -27.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 731 | 711 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -5.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 17.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.3% | 23.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCD Return | 28% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 8% | -13% | 40% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -5% | 26% | 14% | -5% | 8% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCD Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 62% | 57% | 43% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCD Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -17% | -17% | -11% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -29% | -19% | -19% | -26% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 140 days |
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About McDonald's (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is a globally recognized fast-food chain that operates and franchises restaurants in the United States and numerous international markets. As of late 2021, the company managed over 40,000 restaurants worldwide, making it one of the largest restaurant chains globally. Founded in 1940 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald's has built its business around providing quick-service meals to a broad customer base.
The core of McDonald's offerings includes its iconic hamburgers and cheeseburgers, alongside popular chicken sandwiches, nuggets, and wraps. Complementing these main dishes are its well-known fries, salads, and a variety of desserts like shakes, sundaes, and soft-serve cones, plus bakery items. The menu is further diversified by a breakfast selection featuring items such as biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes, catering to morning diners. A wide range of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages are also standard fare.
McDonald's primarily serves the mass market, appealing to a wide demographic seeking convenient, affordable, and consistent fast food. Its extensive global footprint means it caters to diners across diverse cultures and geographies, from families to individuals, students to professionals, throughout the day with its varied meal options, including breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe McDonald's:
- Coca-Cola for prepared meals: Just as Coca-Cola is a globally ubiquitous and highly consistent brand for beverages, McDonald's is the same for quick, standardized prepared meals.
- Walmart for quick meals: Similar to how Walmart provides a vast, convenient, and consistent option for everyday retail needs, McDonald's does the same for affordable and accessible quick meals.
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- Hamburgers and Cheeseburgers: Classic beef patties served in buns with various toppings.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: A variety of poultry-based options, including crispy or grilled sandwiches and bite-sized nuggets.
- Fries: McDonald's signature golden, crispy potato sticks.
- Salads and Wraps: Lighter meal options including fresh greens and various fillings wrapped in tortillas.
- Breakfast Menu Items: A dedicated selection for morning meals, featuring items like hotcakes, breakfast sandwiches, and burritos.
- Desserts and Shakes: Sweet treats such as ice cream sundaes, soft-serve cones, milkshakes, and baked goods.
- Beverages: A broad array of drinks including soft drinks, coffee, and other non-alcoholic options.
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McDonald's (MCD) primarily sells to individual consumers rather than other companies. Based on its operations as a fast-food restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:
- Families and Children: A significant portion of McDonald's customer base consists of families, often attracted by child-friendly menu items like the Happy Meal, play areas in some locations, and an overall family-oriented dining experience.
- Individuals Seeking Convenience and Speed: This category includes commuters, people on lunch breaks, travelers, and anyone looking for a quick, easily accessible, and consistent meal solution, particularly during busy times or when on the go.
- Value-Conscious Consumers: Customers who prioritize affordability and seek budget-friendly meal options are a key demographic for McDonald's, often utilizing value menus, combo deals, and promotions to get a satisfying meal at a lower cost.
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- Tyson Foods (TSN)
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)
- JBS S.A. (JBSS3.SA)
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Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Kempczinski joined McDonald's in 2015 as Executive Vice President for strategy, business development, and innovation. He was promoted to President of McDonald's USA in October 2016 and became CEO in November 2019, also assuming the role of Chairman of the Board in 2024. Prior to McDonald's, he accumulated over 25 years of experience in consumer goods, holding senior positions at Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, and Kraft Foods, where he served as Executive Vice President of Growth Initiatives and President of International. There is no information indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Ian Borden, Executive Vice President, Global Chief Financial Officer
Ian Borden has been with McDonald's for nearly 30 years. He began his career in the finance department in Canada and has held various international leadership and P&L roles, including Chief Financial Officer of McDonald's Russia and Eastern Europe, Managing Director of McDonald's Ukraine, and President of International Developmental Licensed and Foundational Markets. Most recently, he was President, International, overseeing all business outside of the U.S., before becoming Global Chief Financial Officer. There is no information provided indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Joe Erlinger, President, McDonald's USA
Joe Erlinger serves as the President of McDonald's USA.
Heidi B. Capozzi, Executive Vice President, Global Chief People Officer
Heidi B. Capozzi joined McDonald's in April 2020. Before McDonald's, she was the Senior Vice President of Human Resources at The Boeing Company since 2016. Her prior experience also includes leadership roles in human resources and communications at Northrop Grumman and TRW's automotive and defense business, as well as human resources, internal services, and quality for Insitu.
Warren Anderson, Senior Vice President, Global Chief Supply Chain Officer
Warren Anderson's career with McDonald's spans more than 15 years. He most recently served as Corporate Senior Vice President, Global Supply Chain, collaborating with over 100 international markets. His responsibilities include the supply and cost management of food, packaging, logistics, toys, and equipment for McDonald's restaurants worldwide. He contributed to achieving a $1 billion global cost savings target and ensured supply chain resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The key risks to McDonald's (MCD) business are:
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Inflation and Pressured Consumers Leading to Margin Compression: McDonald's faces significant challenges from stubborn inflation, which drives up input costs such as food (specifically beef) and labor expenses. This pressure on operational costs, particularly due to minimum wage hikes, directly impacts the company's margins. Simultaneously, a pressured consumer base, especially lower-income quick-service restaurant (QSR) consumers, is leading to reduced traffic. McDonald's must balance the need to offer value to attract and retain customers with increasing costs, which can compress profitability if prices cannot be raised sufficiently.
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Geopolitical Instability and International Market Risks: As a global company with extensive international operations, McDonald's is exposed to geopolitical instability in key international markets. This includes navigating diverse economic systems, political crises, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, which can significantly affect profitability and financial reporting. Additionally, varying foreign taxation policies in different countries pose challenges for international business expansion and operations.
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Intensifying Competition and Maintaining Customer Relevance: McDonald's operates in a highly competitive fast-food industry. The company faces ongoing challenges from competitors, which can impact its market positioning and foot traffic. To remain successful, McDonald's must continuously differentiate its customer experience, stay relevant with evolving consumer preferences (such as the demand for healthier menu options), and execute strategic plans effectively to ensure sustained customer satisfaction and prevent sales cannibalization from its own expanding store footprint.
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- Shift in consumer preferences towards healthier, plant-based, and sustainably sourced food options, challenging McDonald's traditional menu and brand perception.
- Increasing reliance on and power of third-party food delivery platforms, leading to eroded profit margins, loss of direct customer relationship and data, and increased platform leverage over McDonald's operations and pricing.
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- Burgers and Cheeseburgers: The global hamburger market is valued at USD 759.45 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,168.48 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2026 to 2035. In the U.S., the burger restaurant market size was approximately USD 173.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 177.7 billion in 2026. The burgers/sandwich segment contributed over 43% of the revenue share in the global fast food market in 2025.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: The global fried chicken market was valued at about USD 44.56 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 78.92 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.33% from 2025 to 2035. The U.S. quick-service chicken restaurant industry generated roughly USD 60–65 billion in annual revenue as of 2025, and its market size is estimated at USD 63.7 billion in 2026. This segment is projected to grow to approximately USD 67.2 billion by 2030.
- Beverages (Soft Drinks and Other Beverages): The global non-alcoholic beverages market was estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 2.85 trillion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 3.78% from 2026 to 2035. The U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market size was estimated at USD 280.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 457.0 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- Coffee: The global coffee shop market size was approximately USD 220.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 290.24 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. coffee shop market value was around USD 49.5 billion in 2023 and approximately USD 74.3 billion in revenue in 2025. For the broader U.S. coffee market, the size is projected to grow from USD 112.86 billion in 2025 to reach USD 175.27 billion by 2035.
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McDonald's (MCD) is strategically focused on several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These initiatives are part of its "Accelerating the Arches" strategy, emphasizing restaurant expansion, digital transformation, menu innovation, and the introduction of new restaurant concepts.
- Aggressive Restaurant Expansion: McDonald's plans its fastest period of growth in its history, aiming to expand its global restaurant count to 50,000 by 2027. This includes opening over 2,100 new restaurants worldwide in 2024, with significant development targeted in international markets such as China, alongside expansion in the United States and International Operated Markets (IOM). This substantial increase in its footprint is expected to contribute to systemwide sales growth.
- Digital Transformation and Loyalty Program Growth: The company is doubling down on its "3 Ds" – Digital, Delivery, and Drive-Thru – with a strong emphasis on enhancing its digital ecosystem. A core component is the MyMcDonald's Rewards program, which McDonald's aims to grow to 250 million active users by 2027, projecting to double loyalty program sales to $45 billion. This digital focus involves upgrading the McDonald's app, introducing web-based ordering, personalizing offers, and deploying a new universal software platform across its digital channels to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is leveraging AI solutions to optimize drive-thru speeds and personalized app offers.
- Menu Innovation and Value Focus: McDonald's is committed to enhancing its core menu, notably through its "Best Burger" initiative, which involves over 50 changes to improve burger quality with hotter patties, softer buns, and better-melted cheese, rolling out nationwide. Beyond core improvements, the company plans to introduce new menu items and limited-time offers (LTOs) and is testing a larger burger option. A significant driver for attracting and retaining customers, especially in a pressured consumer spending environment, is its continued focus on value and affordability through initiatives like the $5 Meal Deal and Every Day Affordable Price (EDAP) menus.
- Launch of New Restaurant Concepts: To tap into new market segments and drive growth, McDonald's is introducing innovative spin-off concepts such as CosMc's. This new drive-thru-only format, focusing on customizable beverages and snacks, is designed to compete in the growing afternoon snack and beverage category, with 10 locations planned in 2024.
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Share Repurchases
- McDonald's repurchased $2.056 billion of its stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $2.824 billion in 2024.
- Share repurchases amounted to $3.054 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- McDonald's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the last few years, indicating that share repurchases have outweighed any share issuances. For instance, shares outstanding decreased from 744.8 million in 2021 to 712.1 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, the company's cash used for investing activities increased, primarily due to an increased ownership stake in McDonald's China business and the acquisition of McDonald's business in Israel.
- Long-term investments by McDonald's were $2.71 billion in 2024, marking a significant increase from $1.08 billion in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are projected to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority directed towards new unit openings across the U.S. and international markets, and supporting strategic growth drivers like technology and digital enhancements.
- McDonald's capital expenditures were $3.365 billion in 2025, primarily for new restaurant openings, with approximately 2,275 new restaurants opened globally in 2025.
- Capital expenditures were approximately $2.8 billion in 2024, mainly allocated to new restaurant openings and reinvestment in existing restaurants.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| McDonald's Stock at Support Zone - Bargain or Trap? | 06/18/2026 | |
| EAT, QSR Beat McDonald's Stock on Price & Growth | 06/09/2026 | |
| McDonald's Stock Capital Return Hits $36 Bil | 06/04/2026 | |
| McDonald's Earnings Notes | 05/06/2026 | |
| Should You Buy McDonald's Stock? | 05/02/2026 | |
| McDonald's Stock Slides 5.6% With A 5-Day Losing Spree | 03/24/2026 | |
| How Low Can McDonald's Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
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| The Real Risk Squeezing McDonald’s Stock | 07/03/2026 | |
| McDonald’s Stock Testing Price Floor – Buy Now? | 06/18/2026 | |
| Is McDonald’s Stock Undervalued Stock Or Value Trap? | 06/04/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.3 |
| Rev LTM | 10,864 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,576 |
| FCF LTM | 1,606 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,460 |
| CFO LTM | 2,115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,928 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.3 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.4 |
| P/E | 27.7 |
| P/CFO | 18.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 13,633 | 12,628 | 12,382 | 11,297 | 12,220 |
| United States (US) | 10,825 | 10,631 | 10,568 | 9,588 | 8,865 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 2,427 | 2,661 | 2,543 | 2,297 | 2,138 |
| Total | 26,885 | 25,920 | 25,493 | 23,183 | 23,223 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 6,382 | 5,946 | 5,831 | 3,926 | 5,131 |
| United States (US) | 5,808 | 5,733 | 5,694 | 5,136 | 4,755 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 203 | 33 | 121 | 309 | 471 |
| Total | 12,393 | 11,712 | 11,646 | 9,371 | 10,356 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 27,487 | 23,491 | 23,947 | 21,979 | 24,186 |
| United States (US) | 23,008 | 22,547 | 22,477 | 21,793 | 21,280 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 9,020 | 9,143 | 9,723 | 6,663 | 8,388 |
| Total | 59,515 | 55,181 | 56,147 | 50,436 | 53,854 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $263.57 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 187.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $275.48 | $298.55 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.3% | -11.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.0% | 18.0% |
| Downside Capture | -50.78 | -6.12 |
| Upside Capture | -94.63 | -16.82 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -21.6% | -0.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.30 | -0.34 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Up Beta | 0.72 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| Down Beta | -0.74 | -0.43 | -0.60 | -0.07 | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| Up Capture | -58% | -64% | -34% | -17% | -4% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 30 | 59 | 126 | 379 |
| Down Capture | -29% | -38% | -6% | 5% | -1% | 52% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 33 | 66 | 126 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | -8.7% | 18.0% | -0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 2.8% | 18.7% | 0.01 | 21.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | -0.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | -20.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | -6.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 4.5% | 17.6% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.5% | 23.9% | 0.19 | 33.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 35.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | -2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 41.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 7.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 10.6% | 20.5% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 48.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 52.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 13.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 54.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.2% | -1.6% | -8.8% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.7% | -2.6% | -1.0% |
| 10/30/2023 | 1.7% | 4.7% | 10.3% |
| 7/27/2023 | 1.2% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.6% | 1.5% | -2.3% |
| 1/31/2023 | -1.3% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
| 10/27/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% |
| 7/26/2022 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | -0.4% | 5.0% | -0.2% |
| 10/27/2021 | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | -1.9% | -3.8% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 1/28/2021 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/9/2020 | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.2% |
| 7/28/2020 | -2.5% | -3.4% | 5.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 284.32 | 5,252 | 1,493,249 | 2,198,900 | Form |
| 2 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5302026 | 278.36 | 2,763 | 769,109 | 1,744,794 | Form |
| 3 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 280.11 | 333 | 93,277 | 2,166,340 | Form |
| 4 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 302.72 | 333 | 100,806 | 2,442,009 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4122026 | 307.00 | 2,626 | 806,182 | 2,578,766 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 284.32 | 5,252 | 1,493,249 | 2,198,900 | Form |
| 2 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5302026 | 278.36 | 2,763 | 769,109 | 1,744,794 | Form |
| 3 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 280.11 | 333 | 93,277 | 2,166,340 | Form |
| 4 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 302.72 | 333 | 100,806 | 2,442,009 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4122026 | 307.00 | 2,626 | 806,182 | 2,578,766 | Form |
| 6 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 313.47 | 333 | 104,386 | 2,633,114 | Form |
| 7 | Baroni, Dario | President, IDL | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 323.77 | 600 | 194,262 | 344,190 | Form |
| 8 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 328.34 | 2,626 | 862,221 | 2,867,357 | Form |
| 9 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 330.43 | 333 | 110,033 | 2,885,609 | Form |
| 10 | Banner, Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 333.29 | 6,201 | 2,066,596 | 763,589 | Form |
| 11 | Kempczinski, Christopher J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 333.54 | 26,276 | 8,764,097 | 7,638,113 | Form |
| 12 | Kempczinski, Christopher J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 331.35 | 26,277 | 8,706,884 | 7,587,961 | Form |
| 13 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 331.00 | 4,692 | 1,553,052 | 2,052,054 | Form |
| 14 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 325.25 | 2,626 | 854,106 | 1,755,739 | Form |
| 15 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 306.58 | 2,626 | 805,079 | 1,654,956 | Form |
| 16 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 320.00 | 2,486 | 795,520 | 2,005,763 | Form |
| 17 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 315.00 | 658 | 207,270 | 1,952,861 | Form |
| 18 | Steijaert, Manuel JM | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 305.50 | 6,567 | 2,006,218 | 1,407,164 | Form |
| 19 | Borden, Ian Frederick | EVP - CFO | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 310.00 | 17,134 | 5,311,540 | 8,169,476 | Form |
| 20 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 305.82 | 3,195 | 977,095 | 1,861,869 | Form |
| 21 | Steijaert, Manuel JM | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 300.42 | 13,134 | 3,945,716 | 1,383,765 | Form |
| 22 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 315.00 | 1,000 | 315,000 | 2,160,131 | Form |
| 23 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 315.00 | 4,716 | 1,485,540 | 2,475,131 | Form |
| 24 | Banner, Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 310.00 | 1,000 | 310,000 | 30,585 | Form |
| 25 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 310.00 | 2,487 | 770,970 | 2,713,743 | Form |
| 26 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 303.50 | 976 | 296,216 | 2,392,053 | Form |
| 27 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 299.49 | 939 | 281,221 | 2,780,202 | Form |
| 28 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 300.00 | 1,000 | 300,000 | 2,657,268 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 52.2% | 362 | Hold | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $126.6 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $16.0 Mil | 3.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $25.6 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.5 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $6.9 Mil | 1.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.3 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $104.1 Mil | 0.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $76.9 Mil | 2.8% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 52.2% | 362 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $126.6 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $104.1 Mil | 0.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $25.6 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $16.0 Mil | 3.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.5 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $6.9 Mil | 1.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.3 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
MCD Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
While near-term demand has softened, McDonald's is leveraging its scale to gain market share in a value-focused environment. The company's aggressive plan to add 2,100 net new restaurants in 2026 provides a clear growth path. The primary uncertainty is whether its value initiatives can successfully restart customer traffic growth in the coming quarters.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise & Royalty(Systemwide Sales from Franchises * Blended Royalty/Rent Rate) + (Sales from Company-Operated Restaurants) Franchise margin expansion, driven by sales-based royalty streams on a largely fixed cost base (owned real estate).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The company is capturing a larger share of a challenged market while executing the fastest unit expansion in its history.
- The company gained market share in nearly all of its top 10 markets in Q1.
- A plan is in place to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027.
- Management expects 2,100 net restaurant additions in 2026.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 46%, funding its value strategy.
- Management has committed that McDonald's 'is not going to get beat on value'.
PRIMARY RISK
A sustained decline in spending from its core low-income customer base could overwhelm value offerings, leading to negative customer traffic and pressuring franchisee health.
- Global comparable sales growth was 6%.
- Q1 U.S. growth was 'primarily driven by positive check growth,' not traffic.
- Management noted QSR traffic from low-income consumers was declining.
- Company-acknowledged U.S. and IOM comparable sales were 'slightly negative in April'.
- Inventory grew 19.6% in the latest quarter, outpacing 9.4% revenue growth.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Global Comparable Sales Growth | 3.8% for Q1 2026 - Decelerating | Global comparable sales growth accelerated into the end of 2025, peaking at 5.7% in Q4, but has since decelerated to 3.8% in the most recent quarter. This indicates a slowdown in momentum from the holiday period. |
| U.S. Comparable Sales Growth | 3.9% for Q1 2026 - Decelerating | The U.S. segment saw a significant acceleration in growth in Q4 2025 to 6.8%, but this momentum slowed considerably in Q1 2026, with growth falling to 3.9%. This sharp deceleration points to a tougher operating environment or more difficult comparisons. |
| Systemwide Sales Growth (Constant Currency) | 6% (Q1 2026) | Measures the sales growth of all restaurants in the system, including both franchised and company-operated locations. It is a key indicator of the overall brand's market penetration and health, as franchised sales are the basis for royalty revenues. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month Revenue Growth | 6.8% year-over-year (as of 6/30/2026) | Indicates the year-over-year growth of the company's consolidated top line over the last four quarters, smoothing out single-quarter volatility. |
Defensive Share Gains vs. Decelerating Consumer Demand
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the company's scale and 46% operating margin allow it to win the value war, gaining share and protecting cash flows as it executes its 50,000-restaurant expansion plan.
CORE TENSION
Can market share gains and a 2.5% sales lift from new units offset the pressure from decelerating comparable sales, which fell from 9.7% to 9.4% last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears' caution. Management confirmed April sales were slightly negative and U.S. growth is now entirely reliant on price, indicating weakening underlying demand.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the sharp deceleration in comparable sales and negative April trends as proof that the low-income consumer is too weak for even value offerings to support traffic.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/27/2026 | Peer Group Demand Signals Watch: Commentary on consumer spending, traffic trends, and value strategies from SBUX, CMG, QSR, and YUM earnings reports. |
10/29/2026 | Restaurant Brands Earnings Report Watch: Peer Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Yum Brands Earnings Report Watch: Peer Yum Brands (YUM) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Weakening Consumer Spending Watch: U.S. and IOM comparable sales growth and guest counts in the next earnings report, particularly for low-income consumers. |
11/3/2026 | Eroding Operating Margins Watch: Company-operated and consolidated operating margin performance and guidance in the next earnings report. Commentary on franchisee profitability. |
No set date | Inventory Overhang Impact Watch: Gross margin performance in the next earnings report, any new significant promotional activity, or inventory write-downs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-20 | Anticipation of Dividend King Status Details: An analyst initiated a position, noting the stock's 12% YTD decline as a value opportunity and highlighting that McDonald's is set to become a 'Dividend King' with its 50th consecutive dividend increase. | -1.4% $267.71 -> $263.91 |
2026-06-18 | Analyst Rating Upgrade on Value Pivot Details: An analyst report noted McDonald's earned a 'soft buy rating after a sustained sell-off and successful pivot back to value-focused offerings,' including $5 meals and under-$3 menu items. | -4.8% $283.82 -> $270.10 |
2026-06-01 | New Global Growth Strategy Unveiled Details: At its Worldwide Convention, McDonald's unveiled a new global growth plan centered on four cornerstones: a new restaurant design, better food and drinks, innovation, and improved customer service. | -0.3% $277.32 -> $276.36 |
2026-05-13 | Chicago Stadium Naming Rights Deal Details: McDonald's announced its first-ever naming rights partnership for a major U.S. professional sports stadium. The new Chicago Fire FC stadium will be named McDonald's Park and open in 2028. | +0.0% $272.99 -> $273.12 |
2026-05-07 | First Quarter 2026 Earnings Report Details: The company reported global comparable sales growth of 3.8% and U.S. comparable sales growth of 3.9%. The two-day stock reaction to the report was negative at -3.0%. | -2.9% $282.19 -> $273.89 |
2026-02-11 | Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported full-year 2025 system-wide sales growth of 5.5% in constant currency and Q4 comparable sales growth of 5.5%. The two-day stock reaction was positive at 2.0%. | +1.9% $321.98 -> $328.01 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MCD trades at roughly 25% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.7x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
SBUX - Starbucks
Premium Beverage ExposureStarbucks offers exposure to a higher-income consumer and dominates the premium beverage category, where McDonald's is a challenger. Its comparable sales growth of 6% recently outpaced McDonald's.
YUM - Yum Brands
Diversified QSR PortfolioYum Brands provides exposure to a different set of quick-service restaurant concepts like KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, diversifying away from a single brand. Its recent revenue growth of 9.7% was higher than McDonald's.
McDonald's is a global real estate and brand-licensing company that generates predictable, high-margin cash flows from franchisees, using its scale to dominate the value-oriented consumer segment.
Under its 'Accelerating the Arches' strategy, McDonald's is focusing on its 'M-C-D' growth pillars: Maximizing Marketing, Committing to the Core menu, and Doubling Down on Digital, Delivery, and Drive-Thru. The company is navigating a challenging environment with a bifurcated consumer by reinforcing its value leadership to attract price-sensitive customers while using menu innovation and marketing to appeal to all income levels. This strategy aims to drive traffic and grow market share despite macroeconomic pressures.
Sustained market share gains, positive comparable guest counts, successful rollout and adoption of new platforms like the U.S. beverage line, and continued strong new unit growth in developmental markets.
Erosion of value and affordability scores, declining franchisee profitability leading to system friction, or failure of new menu innovations to drive incremental traffic.
Short-term fluctuations in commodity costs, quarterly foreign exchange impacts, or single-market promotional successes/failures.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful nationwide launch of the new U.S. beverage platform and the system's ability to maintain positive traffic and market share gains through the second half of 2026 amid persistent consumer pressure.
United States (US)
$10.8B TTM (40% of Total) · 54% MarginWhat It Is
This segment's revenues consist of sales from company-operated restaurants directly to consumers, and rent and royalty fees collected from conventional franchisees in the U.S.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for meals, driven by convenience, value, and brand familiarity. Franchisees pay rent and royalties as a percentage of sales to leverage the McDonald's brand, operating system, and real estate, which is often owned or leased by the parent company.
Competition
International Operated Markets
$13.6B TTM (51% of Total) · 47% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes revenues from sales at company-operated restaurants and fees from franchised restaurants in established international markets like Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.
Who Pays & How
Similar to the U.S., revenue comes from consumers buying food and from franchisees paying rent and royalties to operate under the McDonald's brand and system in mature international markets.
Competition
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate
$2.4B TTM (9% of Total) · 8% MarginWhat It Is
This segment's revenue is primarily from royalty fees from developmental licensees and affiliates in over 75 countries, including markets like China and Japan. Under this model, the licensee provides the capital, including real estate.
Who Pays & How
Developmental licensees and affiliates pay royalties to McDonald's for the right to operate restaurants, develop new locations, and use the brand in their designated territories. They are responsible for their own capital and operations.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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