Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 158%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 139%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 158%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 139%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MBX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why MBX Biosciences (MBX) stock moved by approximately 102% for the period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Positive Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results.

MBX Biosciences reported positive Phase 2 topline results in Q3 2025 for its lead product candidate, once-weekly canvuparatide, in patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism. The trial achieved its primary endpoint with a 63% responder rate at 12 weeks compared to 31% for placebo, and demonstrated a 79% responder rate at six months in the open-label extension. This significant clinical success likely fueled investor confidence in the company's pipeline. 2. Strong Financial Position Through Successful Public Offering.

In the third quarter of 2025, MBX Biosciences completed an upsized public offering, raising approximately $200 million. This offering strengthened the company's financial reserves to $391.7 million in cash and equivalents as of September 30, 2025, with management expecting this capital to fund operations into 2029. This extended cash runway reduces financial risk and supports ongoing and future development programs.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MBX Return-----66%66%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%3%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBX Win Rate----0%60% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MBX Max Drawdown------69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

MBX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MBX Biosciences (MBX)

Better Bets than MBX Biosciences (MBX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MBX Biosciences

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MBXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMBX Bios.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price30.54457.362.631.1711.5421.9316.73
Mkt Cap1.0116.9----59.0
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-91-92-5--93-70-91
FCF LTM-793,337-6--60-64-60
FCF 3Y Avg-2,064-10---1,027
CFO LTM-783,718-6--60-64-60
CFO 3Y Avg-2,419-10---1,204

Growth & Margins

MBXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMBX Bios.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

MBXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMBX Bios.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap1.0116.9----59.0
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-6.622.4----7.9
P/E-7.427.2----9.9
P/CFO-7.726.9----9.6
Total Yield-13.5%3.7%-----4.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.3%----2.3%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.7-0.0-----0.3

Returns

MBXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMBX Bios.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn48.1%8.5%-23.2%-4.6%-15.8%
3M Rtn136.4%15.2%--14.5%-15.2%
6M Rtn157.5%3.1%----80.3%
12M Rtn58.7%-1.4%----28.7%
3Y Rtn-44.0%----44.0%
1M Excs Rtn46.8%7.2%-22.0%-5.9%-14.6%
3M Excs Rtn158.6%9.7%--10.8%-10.8%
6M Excs Rtn142.1%-12.4%----64.8%
12M Excs Rtn47.3%-15.2%----16.1%
3Y Excs Rtn--28.7%-----28.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,629,382
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.0%
Average Daily Volume750,881
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.17
Basic Shares Quantity34,198,597
Short % of Basic Shares13.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
123120239132024424B5 12/31/2023