MBX Biosciences (MBX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.54 | Market Cap: $941.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
MBX Biosciences (MBX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.54Market Cap: $941.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 169% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 138% | ||
| Key risksMBX key risks include [1] unconvincing Phase 2 data for its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 169% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 138% |
| Key risksMBX key risks include [1] unconvincing Phase 2 data for its lead candidate, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MBX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the movement of MBX Biosciences (MBX) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Positive Phase 2 clinical trial results for canvuparatide, its lead therapy for chronic hypoparathyroidism. MBX Biosciences reported positive topline results from the Phase 2 Avail™ trial of once-weekly canvuparatide in hypoparathyroidism (HP) during the third quarter of 2025. The company believes this therapy has the potential to be a best-in-class treatment for a multibillion-dollar market, which served as a significant positive catalyst for the stock.
2. Successful completion of an upsized public offering, raising approximately $200 million. On September 24, 2025, MBX Biosciences announced the pricing of an upsized public offering that generated around $200 million in gross proceeds. This capital infusion significantly strengthened the company's financial standing and provided funding for its ongoing operations and clinical programs.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MBX Return | � | � | � | � | � | 51% | � |
| Peers Return | 97% | 13% | 75% | 56% | 36% | 18% | 873% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MBX Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 0% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 48% | 57% | 52% | 50% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MBX Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -25% | -48% | -36% | -17% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRNX, LLY, VKTX, RYTM, ALT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MBX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for MBX Biosciences Stock with 49% Return (vs. 19% YTD) [10/31/2025] | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MBX Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1 |
| Op Inc LTM | -139 |
| FCF LTM | -94 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -140 |
| CFO LTM | -93 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -122 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 42.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 37.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -15,618.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -10,948.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -11,356.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7,654.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -11,562.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7,805.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 1,297.4 |
| P/EBIT | -7.4 |
| P/E | -8.4 |
| P/CFO | -9.5 |
| Total Yield | -9.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 41.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 44.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 196.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 31.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 32.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 126.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 9132024 | 424B5 12/31/2023 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |