Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 169%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 138%
5   Key risks
MBX key risks include [1] unconvincing Phase 2 data for its lead candidate, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 169%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 138%
8 Key risks
MBX key risks include [1] unconvincing Phase 2 data for its lead candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MBX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the movement of MBX Biosciences (MBX) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Positive Phase 2 clinical trial results for canvuparatide, its lead therapy for chronic hypoparathyroidism. MBX Biosciences reported positive topline results from the Phase 2 Avail™ trial of once-weekly canvuparatide in hypoparathyroidism (HP) during the third quarter of 2025. The company believes this therapy has the potential to be a best-in-class treatment for a multibillion-dollar market, which served as a significant positive catalyst for the stock.

2. Successful completion of an upsized public offering, raising approximately $200 million. On September 24, 2025, MBX Biosciences announced the pricing of an upsized public offering that generated around $200 million in gross proceeds. This capital infusion significantly strengthened the company's financial standing and provided funding for its ongoing operations and clinical programs.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MBX Return51%
Peers Return97%13%75%56%36%18%873%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBX Win Rate0%58% 
Peers Win Rate43%48%57%52%50%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MBX Max Drawdown-69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-25%-48%-36%-17%-38% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRNX, LLY, VKTX, RYTM, ALT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

MBX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,100 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MBX Biosciences (MBX)

Better Bets than MBX Biosciences (MBX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MBX Biosciences

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MBXCRNXLLYVKTXRYTMALTMedian
NameMBX Bios.Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Rhythm P.Altimmune 
Mkt Price27.7047.691,041.7934.30111.865.0940.99
Mkt Cap0.94.5935.43.97.40.54.2
Rev LTM0253,258017401
Op Inc LTM-91-47822,882-275-186-90-139
FCF LTM-79-354-50-225-109-66-94
FCF 3Y Avg--242-156-122-140-74-140
CFO LTM-78-34810,938-225-109-66-93
CFO 3Y Avg--2387,230-122-125-74-122

Growth & Margins

MBXCRNXLLYVKTXRYTMALTMedian
NameMBX Bios.Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Rhythm P.Altimmune 
Rev Chg LTM-47.7%36.8%-54.9%-61.5%42.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--12.6%23.4%-136.1%-78.2%5.4%
Rev Chg Q--37.6%-54.3%0.0%37.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-10.3%8.7%-11.5%0.0%9.5%
Op Mgn LTM--31,130.2%43.0%--106.8%-452,310.0%-15,618.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--21,683.3%35.6%--213.8%-224,761.6%-10,948.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--738.0%1.8%-6.7%19,540.0%4.3%
CFO/Rev LTM--22,649.4%20.5%--62.6%-331,760.0%-11,356.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--15,175.8%17.8%--133.4%-169,810.7%-7,654.6%
FCF/Rev LTM--23,062.0%-0.1%--62.6%-331,760.0%-11,562.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--15,462.1%0.5%--148.2%-169,821.4%-7,805.1%

Valuation

MBXCRNXLLYVKTXRYTMALTMedian
NameMBX Bios.Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Rhythm P.Altimmune 
Mkt Cap0.94.5935.43.97.40.54.2
P/S-2,556.412.9-38.416,855.31,297.4
P/EBIT-6.6-8.238.6-10.7-39.3-4.0-7.4
P/E-7.4-9.349.6-12.4-34.8-4.0-8.4
P/CFO-7.7-11.362.6-13.1-61.3-5.1-9.5
Total Yield-13.5%-10.8%2.7%-8.0%-2.9%-24.9%-9.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--8.0%0.1%-4.9%-5.9%-30.9%-5.9%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.7-0.30.1-0.2-0.1-0.6-0.3

Returns

MBXCRNXLLYVKTXRYTMALTMedian
NameMBX Bios.Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Rhythm P.Altimmune 
1M Rtn8.2%9.6%2.0%-10.3%11.1%21.5%8.9%
3M Rtn178.7%39.4%37.3%48.5%16.4%42.6%41.0%
6M Rtn169.5%56.4%33.2%30.5%81.9%-24.9%44.8%
12M Rtn39.2%-13.9%34.8%-26.6%96.9%-39.4%10.5%
3Y Rtn-183.0%196.4%753.2%299.1%-55.7%196.4%
1M Excs Rtn7.4%8.8%1.2%-11.0%10.4%20.7%8.1%
3M Excs Rtn173.7%33.1%35.4%30.4%12.2%30.2%31.7%
6M Excs Rtn157.1%44.0%20.8%18.1%69.6%-37.3%32.4%
12M Excs Rtn35.2%-22.2%21.9%-38.1%91.4%-54.7%-0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-126.7%122.1%797.8%205.7%-120.3%126.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Discovery and development of novel precision peptide therapies for the treatment of endocrine and 0
Total 0


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Discovery and development of novel precision peptide therapies for the treatment of endocrine and8445
Total8445


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,101,744
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.4%
Average Daily Volume604,673
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.78
Basic Shares Quantity34,198,597
Short % of Basic Shares12.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/2025-4.6%11.0%-1.0%
3/17/20251.7%-9.3%-14.6%
11/7/20242.1%-8.4%-2.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive210
# Negative123
Median Positive1.9%11.0% 
Median Negative-4.6%-8.8%-2.5%
Max Positive2.1%11.0% 
Max Negative-4.6%-9.3%-14.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
123120239132024424B5 12/31/2023