MBX Biosciences (MBX)
Market Price (12/30/2025): $31.075 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
MBX Biosciences (MBX)
Market Price (12/30/2025): $31.075Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 172% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 139% | ||
| Key risksMBX key risks include [1] unconvincing Phase 2 data for its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 172% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 139% |
| Key risksMBX key risks include [1] unconvincing Phase 2 data for its lead candidate, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Positive Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results for Canvuparatide. MBX Biosciences announced on September 22, 2025, that its once-weekly canvuparatide achieved the primary endpoint in its Phase 2 trial for hypoparathyroidism, showing a 63% responder rate at 12 weeks and a 79% responder rate at 6 months in the open-label extension. This significant positive clinical data for a key pipeline candidate was a major driver for the stock movement.
2. Initiation of Phase 1 Trial for Obesity Candidate MBX 4291. On September 4, 2025, MBX Biosciences dosed the first participant in its Phase 1 trial for MBX 4291, a GLP-1/GIP co-agonist prodrug being developed as a once-monthly treatment for obesity. This marked progress in a potentially large and lucrative market.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 73.2% change in MBX stock from 9/29/2025 to 12/29/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 9292025 | 12292025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.94 | 31.07 | 73.19% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33.45 | 34.20 | -2.25% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/29/2025 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBX | 73.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 18.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.7% | 11.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 172.3% change in MBX stock from 6/30/2025 to 12/29/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6302025 | 12292025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.41 | 31.07 | 172.30% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31.85 | 34.20 | -7.36% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBX | 172.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.1% | 11.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.8% change in MBX stock from 12/29/2024 to 12/29/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12292024 | 12292025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.07 | 31.07 | 54.81% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31.85 | 34.20 | -7.36% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/29/2024 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBX | 54.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.6% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.6% | 18.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/30/2023 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 47.9% | 21.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.6% | 19.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MBX Return | - | - | - | - | -22% | 68% | 31% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MBX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MBX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -33% | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/29/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MBX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
A smaller, earlier-stage Eli Lilly focused on developing novel therapies for diabetes and related metabolic diseases.
Like a nascent Novo Nordisk, specializing in the research and development of new drugs for diabetes and liver conditions like MASH.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Therapeutic Biologics: Novel biological drugs, such as monoclonal antibodies or gene therapies, developed to treat a range of human diseases.
- Molecular Diagnostics: Advanced kits and platforms used for precise disease detection, patient stratification, and monitoring treatment response.
- Research Reagents & Tools: Specialized biochemicals, antibodies, cell lines, and laboratory equipment supplied for life science research and development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MBX Biosciences (symbol: MBX), as a company operating in the biosciences sector, typically sells its products and services primarily to other companies and institutions rather than directly to individuals. Due to the confidential nature of client relationships in this industry, specific customer names are generally not publicly disclosed unless they represent major collaborations, licensing agreements, or acquisitions.
Based on the typical business model for a public biosciences company, MBX Biosciences' major customer categories would include:
- Pharmaceutical Companies: These are often the primary customers for advanced therapeutics, novel drug candidates (through licensing or co-development agreements), specialized biologics, or platform technologies developed by biosciences firms. Major public pharmaceutical companies include (but are not limited to) Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck & Co. (MRK), Novartis (NVS), and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).
- Other Biotechnology Companies: This category encompasses a wide range of companies, from large established biotech firms to smaller, emerging ones. They may purchase specialized reagents, assays, research tools, or license specific technologies from MBX Biosciences to enhance their own research and development pipelines or product portfolios. Examples of public biotech companies include Amgen (AMGN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Biogen (BIIB).
- Academic and Clinical Research Institutions: Universities, government laboratories, and major hospitals frequently serve as customers for biosciences companies. They purchase advanced research reagents, specialized diagnostic kits (if MBX produces them), or contract research services to support scientific discovery, clinical trials, and patient care.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Kent Hawryluk, President & CEO
Kent Hawryluk is a Co-Founder of, and currently serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of, MBX Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: MBX), roles he has held since January 2020. He also has served as a member of MBX's Board of Directors since April 2019. Prior to joining MBX, Mr. Hawryluk was Co-Founder and Chief Business Officer of Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: RNA), an RNA therapeutics company, from January 2013 to December 2019. Under his leadership, Avidity raised $130 million in equity financings and initiated a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly. Previously, he served as Co-founder and CEO of MB2, a clinical-stage company focused on diabetes and obesity, from May 2014 to March 2016. MB2 was acquired by Novo Nordisk in October 2015. Prior to MB2 and Avidity, Mr. Hawryluk co-founded Marcadia Biotech and served as its Chief Business Officer and Vice President, Business Development from January 2006 to April 2011. Marcadia was acquired by Roche in December 2010. Since January 2003, he has also served as partner of Twilight Venture Partners, a private seed- and early-stage life science venture capital fund.
Richard Bartram, CPA, Chief Financial Officer
Richard Bartram has served as MBX's Chief Financial Officer since April 2022. Prior to joining MBX, Mr. Bartram served as Chief Financial Officer at Esperion Therapeutics, Inc., (Nasdaq: ESPR), a pharmaceutical company, from January 2018 to April 2022. During his tenure at Esperion, he led the company’s efforts to raise over $1.2 billion in capital, supporting the approval and commercialization of NEXLETOL® and NEXLIZET®. He also provided key contributions to several successful business development licensing transactions. Prior to Esperion, Mr. Bartram served as an assurance manager with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP from 2005 to 2013. Mr. Bartram has an extensive understanding of capital markets and experience in private transactions, initial public offerings, and debt offerings.
Sam Azoulay, MD, Chief Medical Officer
Salomon (Sam) Azoulay, MD, has served as MBX's Chief Medical Officer since June 2024. He is an accomplished physician-scientist with over 35 years of experience in global drug development and operations. Prior to MBX, Dr. Azoulay served as Consulting Chief Executive Officer of Nervosave Therapeutics, a developer of gene therapies, from September 2023 to June 2024. Before that, Dr. Azoulay served as Chief Medical Officer at Sumitovant Biopharma Ltd., an independent subsidiary of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd., from January 2021 to July 2023. He also previously served as Chief Medical Officer of Roivant from May 2018 to December 2020.
Michelle Graham, Chief Human Resources Officer
Chatan Charan, PhD, Sr. Vice President, Pharmaceutical Development and CMC
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for MBX Biosciences (MBX) primarily revolve around the inherent challenges of being a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, particularly concerning the outcomes of its drug development programs, its financial sustainability, and the competitive landscape.
- Clinical Trial Outcomes and Regulatory Hurdles: As a clinical-stage company, MBX Biosciences' success is heavily dependent on the positive outcomes of its ongoing and future clinical trials and its ability to navigate complex regulatory approval processes. There are specific concerns regarding its lead candidate, canvuparatide (MBX 2109), for hypoparathyroidism. Recent Phase 2 data indicated a limited competitive edge against existing or advanced treatments like Ascendis Pharma's Yorvipath, a high placebo response rate, and increased adverse events at higher dosages, which could impede its progression to Phase 3 trials. Furthermore, there is a challenge for MBX Biosciences to demonstrate meaningful differentiation for its near-term hypoglycemia data catalyst (MBX 1416), which could result in an unfavorable risk/benefit profile. The validation of its proprietary Precision Endocrine Peptide (PEP) platform beyond its lead drug candidates is also a significant challenge for the company over the coming year.
- Financial Health and Funding: MBX Biosciences operates with substantial research and development (R&D) expenditures typical for a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, without generating significant product revenue. This has led to accumulated deficits and negative profitability. Although the company currently possesses a strong cash position, projected to fund operations into mid-2027, its ongoing reliance on capital markets for future funding presents a risk of shareholder dilution if additional capital raises become necessary, especially if there are delays or failures in its clinical development programs. The company has already experienced shareholder dilution in the past year.
- Competition: The biopharmaceutical industry is intensely competitive, with many companies actively developing treatments for endocrine and metabolic disorders. MBX's primary candidate, canvuparatide, faces direct competition from established players such as Ascendis Pharma's Yorvipath and other companies with assets in late-stage development, including AstraZeneca. In the obesity therapeutic area, MBX's candidate, MBX 4291, is in earlier stages compared to competitors like Amgen, which has more advanced programs. This competitive landscape could impact MBX's potential market share and commercial viability should its products reach the market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
MBX Biosciences (MBX) is poised for potential future revenue growth, primarily driven by the advancement and commercialization of its precision peptide therapies. Over the next 2-3 years, the key drivers of revenue growth are expected to include:
- Commercialization of Canvuparatide (MBX 2109) for Chronic Hypoparathyroidism: Canvuparatide is MBX's lead product candidate, having demonstrated promising efficacy in Phase 2 trials with a potential best-in-class profile due to its weekly dosing. Analysts anticipate that its successful progression through Phase 3 trials and subsequent market launch could lead to peak sales exceeding $2 billion.
- Advancement and Potential Commercialization of Imapextide (MBX 1416) for Post-Bariatric Hypoglycemia (PBH): Imapextide is currently in Phase 2 clinical evaluation. This investigational therapy is designed to prevent severe hypoglycemia in individuals with PBH and is considered another potential "billion-dollar opportunity" for the company.
- Development and Potential Commercialization of MBX 4291 for Obesity: MBX 4291 is in Phase 1 clinical evaluation as a potential treatment for obesity. Analysts also view this candidate as a significant revenue opportunity, with potential for monthly GLP/GIP dosing.
- Expansion of the Pipeline through the Proprietary PEPâ„¢ Platform Technology: MBX Biosciences leverages its proprietary Precision Endocrine Peptide (PEPâ„¢) platform to discover and develop new therapeutic candidates for endocrine and metabolic disorders. This platform underpins a growing pipeline, offering the potential for additional product launches beyond current lead candidates.
- Strategic Collaborations and Partnerships: MBX Biosciences has opportunities to form strategic partnerships and licensing agreements. Such collaborations could accelerate the development and commercialization of its product candidates by providing additional resources, expertise, and access to established distribution networks, thereby significantly impacting future revenue.
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Share Issuance
- In September 2025, MBX Biosciences completed an upsized public offering of 11,108,055 shares at $18.00 per share, generating approximately $199.9 million in gross proceeds.
- The net proceeds from this September 2025 offering were $187.4 million.
Inbound Investments
- MBX Biosciences has raised a total of $216 million in funding across four rounds.
- The company's latest funding round was a Series C, completed on August 5, 2024, which raised $63.5 million.
- Five investors participated in the Series C round, with Deep Track Capital leading, and Driehaus, Frazier Life Sciences, Orbimed, and Wellington also participating.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were reported as $0.87 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, and $0.87 million for the full year 2024.
- The company reported capital expenditures of $0.13 million in 2023 and $0.44 million in 2022.
- These expenditures likely support the company's focus on the discovery and development of precision peptide therapies for endocrine and metabolic disorders.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for MBX Biosciences Stock with 49% Return (vs. 19% YTD) [10/31/2025] | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for MBX Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 159.0 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $31.07 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/13/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.09 | $17.33 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.1% | 79.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 85.3% | 139.7% |
| Downside Capture | 54.25 | 254.92 |
| Upside Capture | 314.23 | 262.25 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.1% | 21.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.93 | 1.10 | 2.05 | 2.08 | 1.53 | -0.34 |
| Up Beta | 2.56 | 1.50 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.92 | -1.58 |
| Down Beta | 3.18 | 1.10 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 0.76 | -0.16 |
| Up Capture | 448% | 441% | 715% | 747% | 778% | 93% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 26 | 35 | 66 | 130 | 158 |
| Down Capture | -229% | -104% | 109% | 184% | 151% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 15 | 27 | 58 | 117 | 143 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullSEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/17/2025 | 10-K (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/13/2024 | 424B5 (06/30/2024) |
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