Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $46.62 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $46.62Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -154%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -158% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 20.44 Key risksMBIN key risks include [1] significant credit losses driven by a major mortgage fraud incident and [2] vulnerabilities within its complex, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -154%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -158% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 20.44 |
| Key risksMBIN key risks include [1] significant credit losses driven by a major mortgage fraud incident and [2] vulnerabilities within its complex, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/7/2026
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat. Merchants Bancorp significantly exceeded analyst expectations in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, released on April 28, 2026. The company reported diluted earnings per common share of $1.25, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.16 by $0.09, representing a positive surprise of 7.76%. Quarterly revenue of $175.25 million also exceeded analyst projections of $174.30 million. Net income for the quarter increased by 16% compared to fiscal Q1 2025, demonstrating robust financial performance.
2. Record Total Assets and Tangible Book Value Growth. At the close of fiscal Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026), Merchants Bancorp achieved record financial milestones, with total assets reaching $20.3 billion. This marked an 8% increase compared to March 31, 2025, and a 4% increase from December 31, 2025. Concurrently, tangible book value per common share also reached a new record level of $38.55, reflecting a 10% increase from $34.90 at March 31, 2025, and a 3% increase from December 31, 2025. These figures underscore the company's expanding balance sheet and enhanced shareholder value.
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Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat. Merchants Bancorp significantly exceeded analyst expectations in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, released on April 28, 2026. The company reported diluted earnings per common share of $1.25, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.16 by $0.09, representing a positive surprise of 7.76%. Quarterly revenue of $175.25 million also exceeded analyst projections of $174.30 million. Net income for the quarter increased by 16% compared to fiscal Q1 2025, demonstrating robust financial performance.
2. Record Total Assets and Tangible Book Value Growth. At the close of fiscal Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026), Merchants Bancorp achieved record financial milestones, with total assets reaching $20.3 billion. This marked an 8% increase compared to March 31, 2025, and a 4% increase from December 31, 2025. Concurrently, tangible book value per common share also reached a new record level of $38.55, reflecting a 10% increase from $34.90 at March 31, 2025, and a 3% increase from December 31, 2025. These figures underscore the company's expanding balance sheet and enhanced shareholder value.
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Updated on 7/7/2026
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat. Merchants Bancorp significantly exceeded analyst expectations in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, released on April 28, 2026. The company reported diluted earnings per common share of $1.25, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.16 by $0.09, representing a positive surprise of 7.76%. Quarterly revenue of $175.25 million also exceeded analyst projections of $174.30 million. Net income for the quarter increased by 16% compared to fiscal Q1 2025, demonstrating robust financial performance.
2. Record Total Assets and Tangible Book Value Growth. At the close of fiscal Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026), Merchants Bancorp achieved record financial milestones, with total assets reaching $20.3 billion. This marked an 8% increase compared to March 31, 2025, and a 4% increase from December 31, 2025. Concurrently, tangible book value per common share also reached a new record level of $38.55, reflecting a 10% increase from $34.90 at March 31, 2025, and a 3% increase from December 31, 2025. These figures underscore the company's expanding balance sheet and enhanced shareholder value.
3. Positive Momentum in the Regional Banking Sector. The broader financial market saw a favorable shift towards regional banks during the period. The KBW Regional Banking Index climbed approximately 19% year-to-date by July 7, 2026, outpacing the S&P 500. This trend suggests a rotation of investor capital into regional banking names, driven by an improving outlook for the sector, which includes expectations of accelerating loan growth and stable asset quality for many regional players.
4. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Following the company's solid performance, several analysts maintained or upgraded their price targets for Merchants Bancorp. On April 29, 2026, Piper Sandler maintained a "Buy" rating and increased its price target from $51 to $58. Morgan Stanley also raised its price target from $46 to $49 on June 29, 2026, while reiterating a "Hold" rating. The average 12-month consensus price target for MBIN, based on various analyst reports, ranged from $50.00 to $53.50, indicating an anticipated upside from its current trading levels.
Show less
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat. Merchants Bancorp significantly exceeded analyst expectations in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, released on April 28, 2026. The company reported diluted earnings per common share of $1.25, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.16 by $0.09, representing a positive surprise of 7.76%. Quarterly revenue of $175.25 million also exceeded analyst projections of $174.30 million. Net income for the quarter increased by 16% compared to fiscal Q1 2025, demonstrating robust financial performance.
2. Record Total Assets and Tangible Book Value Growth. At the close of fiscal Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026), Merchants Bancorp achieved record financial milestones, with total assets reaching $20.3 billion. This marked an 8% increase compared to March 31, 2025, and a 4% increase from December 31, 2025. Concurrently, tangible book value per common share also reached a new record level of $38.55, reflecting a 10% increase from $34.90 at March 31, 2025, and a 3% increase from December 31, 2025. These figures underscore the company's expanding balance sheet and enhanced shareholder value.
3. Positive Momentum in the Regional Banking Sector. The broader financial market saw a favorable shift towards regional banks during the period. The KBW Regional Banking Index climbed approximately 19% year-to-date by July 7, 2026, outpacing the S&P 500. This trend suggests a rotation of investor capital into regional banking names, driven by an improving outlook for the sector, which includes expectations of accelerating loan growth and stable asset quality for many regional players.
4. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Following the company's solid performance, several analysts maintained or upgraded their price targets for Merchants Bancorp. On April 29, 2026, Piper Sandler maintained a "Buy" rating and increased its price target from $51 to $58. Morgan Stanley also raised its price target from $46 to $49 on June 29, 2026, while reiterating a "Hold" rating. The average 12-month consensus price target for MBIN, based on various analyst reports, ranged from $50.00 to $53.50, indicating an anticipated upside from its current trading levels.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in MBIN stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.82 | 46.66 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 677 | 706 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.3% | 32.3% | 0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 46 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.6% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.3% | 35.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.7% change in MBIN stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.90 | 46.66 | 37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 686 | 706 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.9% | 32.3% | -10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.3 | 9.4 | 48.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 46 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.9% | 40.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.6% change in MBIN stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 82.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.72 | 46.66 | 42.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 645 | 706 | 9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.2% | 32.3% | -28.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.1 | 9.4 | 82.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 46 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 42.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 6.2% | 44.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 88.0% change in MBIN stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.82 | 46.66 | 88.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 455 | 706 | 55.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 49.4% | 32.3% | -34.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.8 | 9.4 | 96.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 43 | 46 | -6.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 88.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 88.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 36.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 70.4% | 47.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MBIN Return | 73% | -22% | 77% | -14% | -6% | 40% | 173% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 10% | 15% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MBIN Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 86% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 53% | 50% | 53% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MBIN Max Drawdown | -22% | -34% | -28% | -31% | -33% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -28% | -49% | -19% | -27% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WAL, TCBI, FHN, BUSE, CATY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MBIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Merchants Bancorp's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MBIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Merchants Bancorp's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) operates as a diversified bank holding company in the United States, primarily through three distinct segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and traditional Banking services. Founded in 1990 and headquartered in Carmel, Indiana, the company serves a broad range of clients from individuals and businesses to other financial institutions and real estate developers.
The Multi-family Mortgage Banking segment is a core focus, specializing in originating and servicing government-sponsored mortgages for multi-family properties and healthcare facilities, including independent living, assisted living, and skilled nursing projects. This segment also plays a role in affordable housing by syndicating low-income housing tax credits and debt funds. Complementing this, the Mortgage Warehousing segment provides crucial funding for agency-eligible residential loans and commercial loans, primarily serving non-depository financial institutions that originate these loans.
Finally, Merchants Bancorp's Banking segment offers a comprehensive array of financial products and services. This includes various deposit accounts for consumers and businesses, alongside a wide spectrum of loan products such as multi-family construction, commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, agricultural, residential mortgage, and consumer loans. The banking segment also provides specialized offerings like single-family mortgage lending and Small Business Administration (SBA) lending, catering to the everyday banking and lending needs of its diverse customer base.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Merchants Bancorp:
- Imagine a specialized real estate lender like Walker & Dunlop (known for multi-family financing) combined with a full-service regional bank.
- It's like a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac for apartment buildings and healthcare facilities, combined with a traditional regional bank.
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- Multi-family and Healthcare Facility Mortgage Banking: Originates and services government-sponsored and customized loan products for multi-family, independent living, assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing facilities.
- Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) & Debt Fund Syndication: Operates as a syndicator of low-income housing tax credit and debt funds, primarily supporting affordable housing projects.
- Mortgage Warehousing: Funds agency eligible residential loans, including origination, purchase, and sale in the secondary market, and provides commercial loans to non-depository financial institutions.
- Deposit Products: Offers a range of financial products and services, including various types of deposit accounts for consumers and businesses.
- Commercial Lending: Provides diverse loan products such as multi-family construction and bridge, commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, and agricultural loans.
- Residential Mortgage and Consumer Lending: Offers single-family mortgage lending, first-lien home equity lines of credit, and various other consumer loan products.
- Small Business Administration (SBA) Lending: Provides specialized government-backed loan products and services tailored for small businesses.
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Key Risks to the Business of Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
- Interest Rate Fluctuations: Merchants Bancorp, as a diversified bank holding company with significant involvement in multi-family mortgage banking, mortgage warehousing, and traditional banking, is highly susceptible to changes in interest rates. Fluctuations can directly impact its net interest margin, the profitability derived from the difference between interest earned on assets and interest paid on liabilities. Continuing high interest rates can increase this risk for banks.
- Real Estate Market Downturn and Credit Risk: A substantial portion of Merchants Bancorp's business is tied to various segments of the real estate market, including multi-family, healthcare facilities, commercial real estate, and residential mortgages. Economic downturns or adverse shifts in these real estate markets, such as declining property values or reduced demand, could lead to increased loan defaults, lower collateral values, and higher credit losses. The upcoming "wall of maturities" for commercial real estate loans, including multi-family properties, requiring refinancing at potentially higher rates, presents a significant risk as borrowers' ability to service debt may decrease. The company has already experienced an increase in provisions for credit losses related to estimated declines in multi-family property values and ongoing investigations into mortgage fraud. While mortgage warehousing is considered relatively low-risk due to short-term loans, market delays in selling these loans can increase interest costs and tie up credit lines.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risk: As a bank holding company, Merchants Bancorp operates within a highly regulated environment, subject to oversight by federal and state authorities. Changes in banking regulations or the introduction of new financial legislation could impose additional compliance costs, increase operational burdens, or alter the competitive landscape, thereby impacting the company's profitability and operations. Mortgage banking activities, in particular, face critical compliance risks that can affect business operations and access to funding.
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The clear emerging threat for Merchants Bancorp is the continued rise and increasing sophistication of financial technology (fintech) companies and large technology companies entering the financial services sector. These entities offer digital-first banking, lending, and mortgage solutions that leverage advanced technology, data analytics, and often lower operational overhead. This trend directly threatens Merchants Bancorp's traditional banking segment by providing more convenient, personalized, and sometimes cheaper alternatives for deposit accounts, consumer loans, small business administration (SBA) lending, and residential mortgage products. Furthermore, the increasing efficiency and reach of these digital platforms could indirectly pressure other segments by setting new benchmarks for customer experience and operational speed.
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Merchants Bancorp operates within several addressable markets across the United States for its diverse range of financial products and services. The market sizes for their main offerings in the U.S. are as follows:
Multi-family Mortgage Banking Segment
- Multi-family Mortgages and Lending: The U.S. multifamily lending market saw originations totaling $288.7 billion in 2024. The overall U.S. multifamily market size was valued at $265 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to $466 billion by 2030. Multifamily transaction and investment volume reached $97.3 billion in 2025. Government agency lending for multifamily assets amounted to $44.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
- Healthcare Facilities Mortgages: The U.S. healthcare finance solutions market was valued at $49.4 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to reach $89.8 billion by 2030. Another projection indicates this market could exceed $121.24 billion by 2035.
- Senior Housing (Independent Living, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing): The U.S. senior living market was valued at $923.20 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to approximately $1.22 trillion by 2030. Alternatively, it was valued at $943.90 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $1.33 trillion by 2033. Senior living transaction volume reached $24 billion in 2025.
- Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and Debt Funds: Approximately $28.9 billion in investor equity was closed into housing tax credit funds and direct investments in the U.S. in 2024. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the LIHTC program will cost around $15.2 billion by 2025.
Mortgage Warehousing Segment
- Residential Mortgage Originations: The U.S. mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026 from $2.0 trillion in 2025. Overall, U.S. mortgage originations are expected to reach $2.27 trillion in 2026. The U.S. home loan market size is estimated at $2.42 trillion in 2026.
Banking Segment
- Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans: Total commercial real estate mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is estimated to have totaled $498 billion in 2024. The U.S. CRE mortgage market comprises approximately $4.5 trillion backed by income-producing properties and $470 billion in construction loans. Commercial real estate loans held by all commercial banks in the U.S. amounted to $3.07 trillion in February 2026.
- Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Loans: In February 2026, commercial and industrial loans from all commercial banks in the U.S. totaled $2.79 trillion. Demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms showed an improving appetite in January 2025.
- Agricultural Loans: The U.S. banking industry held $205 billion in farm loans by the end of 2024. The inflation-adjusted volume of all farm loans secured by real estate in the U.S. exceeded $353 billion in 2023 and is expected to increase to nearly $360 billion in 2024.
- Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs): The U.S. home equity lending market was valued at $179.21 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow from $186.59 billion in 2026 to reach $228.25 billion by 2031. Originations of home equity loans in the U.S. during the second quarter of 2025 were an estimated $74.20 billion. The total outstanding home equity lending in the U.S. reached $588.92 billion at the end of June 2025.
- Small Business Administration (SBA) Lending: SBA 7(a) loan approvals reached a record $37.3 billion in fiscal year 2025 in the U.S. The broader U.S. small business loan market was valued at $245.39 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $349.64 billion by 2033.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
Over the next 2-3 years, Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key initiatives and market conditions:
- Sales Growth Across Segments and Markets: The company anticipates increasing revenue through expanded sales efforts across all its operational segments, including Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking. This growth is projected to come from penetration into existing and new markets, supported by the addition of new sales personnel.
- Impact of Future Interest Rate Reductions: Anticipated future reductions in interest rates are expected to stimulate higher production volumes and an increase in noninterest income from various sources. Lower rates can boost demand for the company's mortgage and loan products, thereby increasing origination and related fees.
- Development of Capital Markets Unit: Merchants Bancorp plans to continue developing its Capital Markets unit. This strategic focus aims to de-risk the balance sheet through securitizations, debt funds, and other structured products, which are expected to generate ongoing non-interest income and enhance the company's capacity for further growth.
- Continued Strength in Government-Backed Lending Programs: The company's emphasis on low-risk, government-backed lending programs, particularly in multi-family mortgage banking and mortgage warehousing, is a consistent driver of revenue. Recent performance indicates sustained strength in these areas, contributing to business resilience and growth.
- Strategic Initiatives and Financial Flexibility: Management is focused on leveraging the company's financial flexibility and implementing strategic initiatives, such as recent credit risk transfer transactions. These efforts are designed to strengthen the capital position, enabling the company to pursue and sustain profitable growth in the coming years.
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Share Repurchases
- Merchants Bancorp announced a stock repurchase program of up to $100 million on January 28, 2026.
- This program is authorized to remain in effect until December 31, 2027.
- The authorization allows the company to reacquire up to 6.2% of its stock through open market purchases.
Share Issuance
- Merchants Bancorp had 45.77 million common shares outstanding for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024.
- Common shares outstanding were 46 million in Q4 2025, showing a 1.3% compound annual growth rate over the last five years.
Capital Expenditures
- Merchants Bancorp invested $3.8 million in capital expenditures in Q4 2025.
- This amount represents a decrease of 34.2% from the prior quarter.
- Capital expenditures are primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Why Merchants Bancorp Stock Moved: MBIN Stock Has Gained 49% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | 08/08/2025 | |
| Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| MBIN Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| null | 05/16/2025 | |
| Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 53.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,072 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 289 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 260 |
| CFO LTM | 302 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 268 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 356 | 362 | 325 | 211 | 151 |
| Multi-family Mortgage Banking | 173 | 173 | 130 | 158 | 143 |
| Mortgage Warehousing | 152 | 133 | 106 | 73 | 138 |
| Other | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Total | 681 | 671 | 563 | 444 | 435 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 122 | 210 | 194 | 134 | 91 |
| Mortgage Warehousing | 97 | 83 | 74 | 49 | 95 |
| Multi-family Mortgage Banking | 40 | 56 | 36 | 55 | 52 |
| Other | -40 | -28 | -25 | -18 | -10 |
| Total | 219 | 320 | 279 | 220 | 227 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 11,307 | 11,761 | 11,761 | 9,588 | 6,930 |
| Mortgage Warehousing | 7,252 | 6,001 | 4,522 | 2,520 | 3,978 |
| Multi-family Mortgage Banking | 526 | 479 | 411 | 351 | 296 |
| Other | 363 | 565 | 258 | 157 | 75 |
| Total | 19,449 | 18,806 | 16,953 | 12,615 | 11,279 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $46.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/27/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $47.52 | $39.98 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -1.8% | 16.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.9% | 36.2% |
| Downside Capture | 104.70 | 77.16 |
| Upside Capture | 67.91 | 92.92 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.4% | 27.6% |
MBIN Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.91 |
| Up Beta | -0.91 | -0.24 | 0.12 | 0.41 | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.29 | 0.32 | -0.27 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| Up Capture | 64% | 54% | 87% | 97% | 95% | 95% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 37 | 73 | 139 | 389 |
| Down Capture | -8% | 15% | 78% | 14% | 71% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 26 | 52 | 113 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MBIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 35.2% | 36.1% | 0.89 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.6% | 14.8% | 0.16 | 44.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.5% | 1.26 | 27.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 27.8% | 0.70 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 18.7% | 1.06 | -17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.62 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.4% | 42.8% | -1.13 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MBIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 13.3% | 35.9% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.3% | 18.6% | 0.43 | 51.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 42.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.30 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 53.5% | 0.41 | 20.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MBIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBIN | 16.5% | 40.1% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.2% | 22.1% | 0.59 | 55.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | -1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 16.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | -9.3% | -6.6% | -4.5% |
| 1/28/2026 | 15.7% | 22.3% | 21.0% |
| 10/28/2025 | -2.0% | -2.8% | 1.3% |
| 7/28/2025 | -10.8% | -13.9% | -6.5% |
| 4/28/2025 | -8.6% | -7.4% | -3.1% |
| 1/28/2025 | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| 10/28/2024 | -17.9% | -17.2% | -5.0% |
| 7/29/2024 | -15.0% | -24.0% | -12.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -8.0% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 15.7% | 22.3% | 29.3% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -24.0% | -12.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | -9.3% | -6.6% | -4.5% |
| 1/28/2026 | 15.7% | 22.3% | 21.0% |
| 10/28/2025 | -2.0% | -2.8% | 1.3% |
| 7/28/2025 | -10.8% | -13.9% | -6.5% |
| 4/28/2025 | -8.6% | -7.4% | -3.1% |
| 1/28/2025 | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| 10/28/2024 | -17.9% | -17.2% | -5.0% |
| 7/29/2024 | -15.0% | -24.0% | -12.6% |
| 4/29/2024 | 2.7% | 19.3% | 0.8% |
| 1/29/2024 | 4.4% | -9.4% | -5.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | 10.1% | 18.3% | 23.5% |
| 7/27/2023 | 1.9% | 3.2% | -3.9% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.1% | -7.9% | -3.2% |
| 1/30/2023 | 9.1% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.1% | -7.0% | 1.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 4.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.6% | -8.0% | -1.0% |
| 1/31/2022 | 4.3% | 6.4% | -1.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | 5.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| 7/28/2021 | -4.3% | -12.5% | -11.9% |
| 4/28/2021 | 5.0% | 10.9% | 7.3% |
| 1/28/2021 | -3.2% | 5.2% | 18.2% |
| 10/28/2020 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 29.3% |
| 7/28/2020 | 10.6% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -8.0% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 15.7% | 22.3% | 29.3% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -24.0% | -12.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/04/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/05/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/16/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/09/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 46.86 | 8,334 | 390,531 | 87,393,619 | Form |
| 2 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 46.75 | 20,000 | 935,000 | 87,578,084 | Form |
| 3 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Spouse is Trustee of The Petrie Grandchildren Trust | Sell | 5072026 | 46.75 | 10,696 | 500,038 | 34,408,608 | Form |
| 4 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.25 | 13,871 | 280,888 | 59,900 | Form |
| 5 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 44.05 | 15,000 | 660,750 | 83,401,098 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 46.86 | 8,334 | 390,531 | 87,393,619 | Form |
| 2 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 46.75 | 20,000 | 935,000 | 87,578,084 | Form |
| 3 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Spouse is Trustee of The Petrie Grandchildren Trust | Sell | 5072026 | 46.75 | 10,696 | 500,038 | 34,408,608 | Form |
| 4 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.25 | 13,871 | 280,888 | 59,900 | Form |
| 5 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 44.05 | 15,000 | 660,750 | 83,401,098 | Form |
| 6 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.20 | 377 | 7,615 | 339,946 | Form |
| 7 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 20.20 | 1,502 | 30,340 | 347,561 | Form |
| 8 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 20.20 | 100 | 2,020 | 377,902 | Form |
| 9 | Schroeter, Martin A | President-Warehouse Lending | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 46.06 | 5,500 | 253,330 | 501,179 | Form |
| 10 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 20.20 | 4,455 | 89,991 | 379,922 | Form |
| 11 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 20.20 | 14,610 | 295,122 | 469,913 | Form |
| 12 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 20.20 | 7,149 | 144,410 | 765,035 | Form |
| 13 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 20.20 | 2,034 | 41,087 | 909,444 | Form |
| 14 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 20.20 | 6,929 | 139,966 | 950,531 | Form |
| 15 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 20.20 | 1,383 | 27,937 | 1,090,497 | Form |
| 16 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 20.20 | 2,404 | 48,561 | 1,118,434 | Form |
| 17 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.00 | 1,380 | 26,220 | 1,097,668 | Form |
| 18 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.00 | 5,336 | 101,384 | 1,123,888 | Form |
| 19 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.00 | 7,541 | 143,279 | 1,225,272 | Form |
| 20 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 19.03 | 1,129 | 21,485 | 1,370,712 | Form |
| 21 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 19.14 | 3,159 | 60,463 | 1,400,244 | Form |
| 22 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 19.14 | 3,109 | 59,506 | 1,460,707 | Form |
| 23 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 19.50 | 500 | 9,750 | 1,548,807 | Form |
| 24 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 19.54 | 2,159 | 42,187 | 1,561,754 | Form |
| 25 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 19.42 | 81 | 1,573 | 1,594,091 | Form |
| 26 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 19.30 | 2,096 | 40,453 | 1,585,804 | Form |
| 27 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 19.35 | 1,902 | 36,804 | 1,630,470 | Form |
| 28 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 19.20 | 11,566 | 222,067 | 1,654,349 | Form |
| 29 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 19.80 | 1,069 | 21,166 | 1,935,054 | Form |
| 30 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 19.83 | 101 | 2,003 | 1,959,184 | Form |
| 31 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 19.85 | 1,000 | 19,850 | 1,963,165 | Form |
| 32 | Petrie, Michael F | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 20.05 | 100 | 2,005 | 2,002,995 | Form |
| 33 | Dury, Michael R | CEO of Merchants Capital | Direct | Buy | 11032025 | 31.64 | 15,500 | 490,420 | 4,368,661 | Form |
| 34 | Sievers, Sean A | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Buy | 9172025 | 24.87 | 3,000 | 74,610 | 74,610 | Form |
| 35 | Thomas, Darin L | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 8252025 | 33.20 | 2,250 | 74,700 | 74,700 | Form |
| 36 | Thomas, Darin L | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 8252025 | 22.60 | 1,103 | 24,928 | 24,928 | Form |
| 37 | Sievers, Sean A | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8052025 | 29.75 | 2,500 | 74,375 | 244,158 | Form |
| 38 | Dury, Michael R | CEO of Merchants Capital | Direct | Buy | 7312025 | 31.56 | 16,000 | 504,936 | 3,868,254 | Form |
| 39 | Dury, Michael R | CEO of Merchants Capital | Direct | Buy | 5022025 | 30.86 | 3,305 | 101,992 | 3,288,874 | Form |
| 40 | Dury, Michael R | CEO of Merchants Capital | Direct | Buy | 5012025 | 30.19 | 5,200 | 157,002 | 3,117,977 | Form |
| 41 | Dunlap, Michael J | President, COO | Direct | Buy | 4302025 | 30.59 | 4,000 | 122,377 | 6,116,129 | Form |
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