Tearsheet

Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $34.465 | Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $34.465
Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 113%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.2
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.2
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 113%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MBIN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Strong Rebound in Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: Merchants Bancorp reported a net income of $54.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, representing a significant increase of 44% compared to the second quarter of 2025, despite an 11% decrease year-over-year. Diluted earnings per common share also saw a substantial rise of 62% quarter-over-quarter.

2. Improved Credit Quality and Reduced Provision for Credit Losses: The company demonstrated improved asset quality with a 45% decrease in the total provision for credit losses and a 9% reduction in loans classified as special mention compared to the end of the second quarter of 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MBIN Return43%73%-22%77%-14%-9%168%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBIN Win Rate58%75%42%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MBIN Max Drawdown-34%0%-31%-8%-15%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMBINS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven491 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven187 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven480 days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Merchants Bancorp's stock fell -33.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -33.9% loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)

Better Bets than Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MBIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Merchants Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MBINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMerchant.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price34.4611.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap1.60.30.2--84.20.9
Rev LTM6862696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM10-52020-843,6577
FCF 3Y Avg-683-22916-52,3175
CFO LTM47-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg-664-22818-52,5065

Growth & Margins

MBINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMerchant.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM8.5%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.6%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%16.6%
Rev Chg Q14.4%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM6.8%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%12.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-127.8%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%19.2%
FCF/Rev LTM1.5%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%8.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-130.7%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%17.8%

Valuation

MBINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMerchant.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap1.60.30.2--84.20.9
P/S2.11.12.7--7.42.4
P/EBIT-------
P/E5.94.911.6--28.88.8
P/CFO31.3-0.67.9--16.812.3
Total Yield16.9%20.2%13.5%--3.5%15.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%4.9%--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-55.8%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%-25.8%
D/E2.02.60.2--0.01.1
Net D/E1.11.8-4.5---0.40.4

Returns

MBINNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMerchant.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn9.9%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.6%
3M Rtn7.5%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn10.6%10.7%29.3%--46.1%20.0%
12M Rtn-12.9%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%9.8%
3Y Rtn40.2%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%24.5%
1M Excs Rtn9.9%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-0.5%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-4.2%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%5.3%
12M Excs Rtn-29.1%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%-4.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-29.2%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-44.9%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking32521115110962
Multi-family Mortgage Banking1301581438243
Mortgage Warehousing1067313815758
Other22436
Total563444435352169


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking194134915432
Mortgage Warehousing74499510635
Multi-family Mortgage Banking3655522915
Other-25-18-10-9-4
Total27922022718177


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking11,7619,5886,9304,4993,019
Mortgage Warehousing4,5222,5203,9784,8943,125
Multi-family Mortgage Banking411351296211189
Other258157754240
Total16,95312,61511,2799,6456,372


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,791,573
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.6%
Average Daily Volume146,881
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.20
Basic Shares Quantity45,887,143
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023312202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021