Veradermics (MANE)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $64.26 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Veradermics (MANE)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $64.26Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% | Key risksMANE key risks include [1] potential clinical trial failure or regulatory disapproval for its lead drug candidate, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% |
| Key risksMANE key risks include [1] potential clinical trial failure or regulatory disapproval for its lead drug candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional IPO Debut and Strong Institutional Backing. Veradermics' stock, trading under the ticker MANE, commenced trading on February 4, 2026, at an initial public offering price of $17.00 per share. On its inaugural trading day, the stock experienced a significant surge, closing at $37.75, representing a 122.06% gain from its IPO price. This robust market entry was further supported by substantial institutional interest, with Eli Lilly & Company indicating interest in purchasing 4.9% of the shares and Wellington Management up to $30 million (15%) in the IPO.
2. Advancement of Late-Stage Clinical Program (VDPHL01). Shortly after its public offering, Veradermics announced on February 9, 2026, the completion of enrollment in its second pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial for VDPHL01, an oral, extended-release minoxidil for male pattern hair loss. This milestone, encompassing over 1,000 participants across both Phase 3 studies, positions VDPHL01 as potentially the first and only non-hormonal oral FDA-approved treatment for pattern hair loss. This condition affects an estimated 80 million individuals in the United States and has not seen new FDA-approved prescription medicines in nearly 30 years, highlighting a significant unmet market need.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MANE | ||
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -8.7% | 34.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MANE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.2% | 34.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MANE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.1% | 34.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MANE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.4% | 34.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MANE Return | - | - | - | - | - | 79% | 79% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -27% | 31% | 53% | 21% | -28% | 56% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MANE Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 48% | 47% | 52% | 53% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MANE Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -44% | -24% | -26% | -41% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRCA, ARQT, ABBV, EOLS, BHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MANE has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VRCA, ARQT, ABBV, EOLS, BHC
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Veradermics (MANE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Veradermics:
- Like a pharmaceutical 'Tesla' for hair loss, taking a known hair growth ingredient (minoxidil) and re-engineering it into a superior, convenient, and safer oral treatment.
- Imagine the 'iPhone' of hair loss treatments: Veradermics is developing a premium, convenient oral solution that aims to dramatically improve user satisfaction over current options.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- VDPHL01: An investigational oral, extended-release (ER) formulation of minoxidil designed as a non-hormonal treatment for pattern hair loss (PHL) in both men and women.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Veradermics (MANE) sells primarily to individuals. The company is developing VDPHL01, an oral, non-hormonal treatment for pattern hair loss (PHL), which, if approved, will be a prescribed therapy for patients. Its commercial strategy involves direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising and physician education to reach these end-users.
The up to three categories of customers Veradermics aims to serve are:
- Men with Pattern Hair Loss (PHL): Specifically, men suffering from mild-to-moderate PHL, for whom VDPHL01 is designed to offer a more effective, convenient, and safe oral treatment option compared to existing therapies.
- Women with Pattern Hair Loss (PHL): Women affected by mild-to-moderate PHL, who currently have limited FDA-approved oral treatment options and often face tolerability issues with existing hormonal or topical treatments.
- Patients seeking improved treatment options for PHL: This category includes both men and women who are dissatisfied with the shortcomings of current PHL treatments (e.g., slow onset, inconsistent results, insufficient hair density, tolerability issues, inconvenience) or are currently untreated but are motivated to address their hair loss with a potentially transformative and well-tolerated oral therapy.
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Reid Waldman, MD, Chief Executive Officer and Board Member
Dr. Waldman is a co-founder of Veradermics, established in October 2019. As CEO, he has led the company through significant equity financings, including a $150 million Series C round, and advanced VDPHL01, their lead asset, into Phase 3 trials. He is a board-certified dermatologist with over a decade of clinical experience. Before founding Veradermics, Dr. Waldman was an active researcher, authoring more than 100 publications and a textbook. He has received the American Academy of Dermatology's “Excellence in Patient Care” award and was recognized in Forbes 30 under 30 list.
Dominic Carrano, CPA, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Mr. Carrano brings over 15 years of experience in financial leadership, technical accounting, and strategic planning within the life sciences sector, overseeing Veradermics' financial strategy and operations. Prior to his role as CFO, he served as the Vice President of Finance at Veradermics. His previous experience includes finance leadership positions at Rallybio and Alexion, and he began his career at Deloitte.
Tim Durso, MD, Chief Technical Officer
Dr. Durso also serves as President of Veradermics, where he spearheads the company's research and development efforts. He is a board-certified dermatologist with over 10 years of clinical experience, and he played a key role in progressing VDPHL01 from its conceptual stage to clinical testing. Dr. Durso is recognized for his expertise in dermatology drug and device innovation. He previously served as the Chief of Dermatology at Malcolm Grow Medical Clinics.
Mark Neumann, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer
Mr. Neumann possesses over three decades of leadership experience in biopharmaceutical commercialization. He previously held the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI), where he established the commercial function and successfully launched CAPLYTA®. Mr. Neumann was instrumental in ITCI's acquisition by Johnson & Johnson in 2025 for approximately $14.6 billion. His career also includes senior commercial roles at Amgen and Bristol-Myers Squibb.
Michael Greco, JD, General Counsel
Mr. Greco serves as the General Counsel for Veradermics. His background includes in-house leadership roles and practicing as a corporate and transactional attorney at Bingham McCutchen LLP and Wiggin and Dana LLP. He has also held prior senior legal positions at Rallybio, SpringWorks, and Alexion.
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Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval: The most significant risk to Veradermics is the failure of its ongoing pivotal clinical trials for VDPHL01 to demonstrate efficacy and safety, or the inability to obtain regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The company's future hinges on the successful completion of its three registration-directed Phase 2/3 and Phase 3 trials and subsequent approval of VDPHL01 as an oral, non-hormonal treatment for pattern hair loss. Any setbacks, such as unexpected adverse events, failure to meet primary endpoints, or delays in trial completion, could significantly impact the company's prospects.
Market Adoption and Commercialization: Even if VDPHL01 receives FDA approval, Veradermics faces the risk that the product may not achieve significant market adoption and commercial success. Despite identifying a substantial unmet need and dissatisfaction with current treatments for pattern hair loss, the company will need to effectively compete in a market with existing treatment options, including topical minoxidil and finasteride. The success of its multi-channel commercialization plan, including physician education, direct-to-consumer advertising, and telehealth engagement, will be crucial in driving patient awareness and demand for VDPHL01.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlThe addressable market for Veradermics' main product, VDPHL01, for PHL treatments for men and women in the U.S. is approximately $9 billion annually.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Veradermics (MANE)
- Successful FDA Approval and Commercial Launch of VDPHL01 for Male Pattern Hair Loss: Veradermics anticipates topline data from its pivotal Phase 2/3 trial in male patients in the first half of 2026 and from its confirmatory Phase 3 trial in male patients in the second half of 2026. This is expected to lead to a New Drug Application (NDA) submission and subsequent regulatory approval, making VDPHL01 available for a significant segment of the pattern hair loss market.
- Expansion into the Female Pattern Hair Loss Market: The company is conducting a registrational-directed Phase 2/3 trial for female patients with pattern hair loss. Securing FDA approval for this indication, potentially through a supplemental NDA or simultaneously with male patients, would significantly expand the addressable patient population and unlock a substantial portion of the estimated $9 billion annual U.S. commercial opportunity.
- Market Penetration through a Differentiated Product Profile: VDPHL01 is positioned as a potentially first-in-class oral, non-hormonal FDA-approved therapy for pattern hair loss, offering attributes such as speed of hair growth, consistency, intensity, and a favorable safety profile compared to existing options. This differentiated profile is expected to address high unmet needs and patient dissatisfaction, driving significant adoption in a large and motivated patient population.
- Execution of a Comprehensive Multi-Channel Commercialization Strategy: In anticipation of potential NDA submission, Veradermics is developing a robust commercialization plan. This strategy will integrate patient identification, physician education, direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising, social media, and telehealth engagement. Effective execution of these commercial pillars, particularly a dermatology-focused field force and DTC advertising, is crucial to driving patient awareness, demand, and ultimately, revenue growth for VDPHL01.
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| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 376 |
| Op Inc LTM | -12 |
| FCF LTM | -16 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -36 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -31 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | -6.1 |
| P/E | -3.5 |
| P/CFO | -3.5 |
| Total Yield | -0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -28.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.7% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coric, Vlad | See Footnote | Buy | 2052026 | 17.00 | 117,646 | 1,999,982 | 5,429,766 | Form | |
| 2 | Childs, John W | See Footnote | Buy | 2052026 | 17.00 | 294,117 | 4,999,989 | 37,434,102 | Form | |
| 3 | Longitude, Capital Partners V, Llc | See Footnote | Buy | 2052026 | 17.00 | 1,075,000 | 18,275,000 | 44,206,783 | Form | |
| 4 | Enright, Patrick G | See Footnote | Buy | 2052026 | 17.00 | 1,075,000 | 18,275,000 | 44,206,783 | Form | |
| 5 | Suvretta, Capital Management, Llc | See footnotes | Buy | 2092026 | 37.05 | 155,953 | 5,778,342 | 135,184,969 | Form |
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