Evolus (EOLS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.75 | Market Cap: $436.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Evolus (EOLS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.75Market Cap: $436.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Medical Aesthetics & Anti-Aging. Themes include Neurotoxin Treatments, Minimally Invasive Aesthetic Procedures, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Medical Aesthetics & Anti-Aging. Themes include Neurotoxin Treatments, Minimally Invasive Aesthetic Procedures, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EOLS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Evolus (EOLS) stock movement by -11.5% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Continued GAAP Operating Loss in Q3 2025: Despite exceeding revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the third quarter of 2025, Evolus reported a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating loss of $11.5 million. This sustained unprofitability on a GAAP basis may have raised investor concerns.
2. Significant Decline in Cash Position During Q3 2025: Evolus's cash and cash equivalents decreased by $18.2 million, from $61.7 million at the end of Q2 2025 to $43.5 million by the end of Q3 2025. This cash usage, primarily attributed to strategic inventory investments, could have generated liquidity concerns among investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EOLS Return | -72% | 94% | 15% | 40% | 5% | -41% | -46% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 36% | 20% | 3% | 5% | 22% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EOLS Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 58% | 60% | 42% | 42% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EOLS Max Drawdown | -76% | -5% | -20% | -5% | -5% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -6% | -13% | -21% | -7% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EOLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 216.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 969 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -76.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 318.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -72.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 264.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE
In The Past
Evolus's stock fell -68.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2021. A -68.4% loss requires a 216.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Evolus Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Evolus Stock with -37% Return (vs. -48% YTD) [8/11/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Evolus Stock with -36% Return (vs. -47% YTD) [8/8/2025] | Notification | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolus (EOLS) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| EOLS Stock Down -37% after 6-Day Loss Streak | August 12th, 2025 | ||
| EOLS Stock Down -36% after 5-Day Loss Streak | August 9th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: GO, VSAT, ALAB | Losers: BLMN, LNTH, EOLS | August 7th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EOLS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Evolus
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 255.2 |
| Rev LTM | 62,786 |
| Op Inc LTM | 22,391 |
| FCF LTM | 10,376 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,927 |
| CFO LTM | 13,077 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 255.2 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.2 |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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