Lamb Weston (LW)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $59.76 | Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Lamb Weston (LW)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $59.76Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 50% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Vegan Products, Sustainable Packaging, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Vegan Products, Sustainable Packaging, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 50% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between November 24, 2025, and November 25, 2025, Lamb Weston (LW) stock experienced an approximate 4.41% increase, moving from a closing price of $56.52 to $59.01. This movement occurred within a broader period of market activity for the company. The key points contributing to investor sentiment during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, include:
1. Strong First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results. Lamb Weston announced its fiscal year 2026 first quarter financial results on September 30, 2025, reporting net sales slightly up and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that surpassed analyst estimates. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 outlook, leading to a nearly 7% increase in stock price on the day of the announcement and contributing to positive investor confidence.
2. Positive Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Revisions. Several analyst firms issued positive updates for Lamb Weston during the period. Zacks Research upgraded the stock from a "hold" to a "strong-buy" rating on October 20, 2025, indicating increased confidence in the company's prospects. Additionally, Bank of America raised its target price on Lamb Weston shares from $60.00 to $66.00 in a research note on October 1, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LW Return | -7% | -18% | 43% | 22% | -37% | -8% | -24% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 4% | -14% | -26% | -17% | -36% | -53% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LW Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 83% | 58% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 54% | 48% | 40% | 48% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LW Max Drawdown | -48% | -35% | -21% | -6% | -51% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -9% | -31% | -35% | -33% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: K, CPB, MED, HAIN, BRBF. See LW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1023 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 120 days |
Compare to K, CPB, MED, HAIN, BRBF
In The Past
Lamb Weston's stock fell -41.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/5/2021. A -41.8% loss requires a 71.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 05312025 | LW | Lamb Weston | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.2% | 9.8% | -13.9% |
| 06302020 | LW | Lamb Weston | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.1% | 27.8% | -7.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 05312025 | LW | Lamb Weston | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.2% | 9.8% | -13.9% |
| 06302020 | LW | Lamb Weston | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.1% | 27.8% | -7.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lamb Weston
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,992 |
| Op Inc LTM | 407 |
| FCF LTM | 115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 69 |
| CFO LTM | 446 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 444 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -28.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -38.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -47.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -111.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9302025 | 10-Q 8/24/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7232025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4032025 | 10-Q 2/23/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12202024 | 10-Q 11/24/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10022024 | 10-Q 8/25/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7242024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4042024 | 10-Q 2/25/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1042024 | 10-Q 11/26/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10052023 | 10-Q 8/27/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7252023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4062023 | 10-Q 2/26/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1052023 | 10-Q 11/27/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10052022 | 10-Q 8/28/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7272022 | 10-K 5/29/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4072022 | 10-Q 2/27/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/28/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |