Tearsheet

Stride (LRN)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $64.37 | Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Stride (LRN)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $64.37
Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024.
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
4 Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LRN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Stride (LRN) stock moved by -60.5% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025:

1. Weak Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Forecast: Stride's stock experienced a significant drop following the company's weak financial forecast for fiscal year 2026, which was reported after the market closed on October 28, 2025, and failed to meet analysts' expectations.

2. Poor Customer Experience and Enrollment Decline from Platform Upgrades: The muted financial outlook was attributed in part to technology platform upgrades that "did not go as smoothly as anticipated," leading to a "poor customer experience." This resulted in higher withdrawal rates and lower conversion rates, causing a significant decrease in enrollment numbers.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LRN Return4%57%-6%90%75%-39%212%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LRN Win Rate42%42%58%58%83%42% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LRN Max Drawdown-22%-2%-19%0%-7%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED. See LRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLRNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven299 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven145.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1079 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven136.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven564 days1480 days

Compare to FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED


In The Past

Stride's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/21/2022. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Stride (LRN)

Better Bets than Stride (LRN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Stride

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
Mkt Price64.500.331.4417.15-32.5417.15
Mkt Cap2.8--3.2--3.0
Rev LTM2,475--2,095--2,285
Op Inc LTM441--305--373
FCF LTM312--222--267
FCF 3Y Avg223-----223
CFO LTM379--402--391
CFO 3Y Avg287-----287

Growth & Margins

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
Rev Chg LTM17.3%--3.2%--10.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.1%--4.3%--8.7%
Rev Chg Q12.7%---2.8%--4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.9%---0.9%--1.0%
Op Mgn LTM17.8%--14.5%--16.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.1%--11.1%--12.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%---0.9%---0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM15.3%--19.2%--17.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%-----13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM12.6%--10.6%--11.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%-----10.1%

Valuation

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
Mkt Cap2.8--3.2--3.0
P/S2.6--1.5--2.1
P/EBIT15.3--7.6--11.4
P/E20.5---30.5---5.0
P/CFO17.0--7.9--12.5
Total Yield4.9%---3.3%--0.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%--0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%-----6.1%
D/E0.1--1.2--0.7
Net D/E-0.0--1.0--0.5

Returns

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
1M Rtn0.6%-6.4%11.6%9.0%-13.8%9.0%
3M Rtn-59.3%-94.1%-14.8%15.6%---37.0%
6M Rtn-55.0%--21.3%----38.1%
12M Rtn-39.3%-9.1%----15.1%
3Y Rtn95.9%--85.0%---5.4%
1M Excs Rtn-1.3%-10.1%4.7%22.1%-9.8%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-57.1%-96.9%-15.8%13.9%---36.4%
6M Excs Rtn-69.2%--35.5%----52.4%
12M Excs Rtn-52.4%--3.2%----27.8%
3Y Excs Rtn21.6%--158.1%----68.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Educational platform to deliver proprietary and third-party curriculum, software systems and2,040    
Adult 119915611
General Education 1,1311,2741,280934
Middle - High School 58732120196
Total2,0401,8371,6871,5371,041


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,210,930
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-8.8%
Average Daily Volume1,386,520
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.76
Basic Shares Quantity43,371,952
Short % of Basic Shares12.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-54.4%-53.7%-58.4%
8/5/202515.7%22.7%26.5%
4/29/2025-0.2%10.9%4.4%
1/28/20256.0%13.2%11.2%
10/22/202439.1%41.2%59.4%
8/6/20249.3%15.3%13.8%
4/23/20248.6%14.7%19.6%
1/23/2024-2.0%-3.2%-10.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141514
# Negative10910
Median Positive11.2%13.2%15.1%
Median Negative-8.2%-16.2%-13.2%
Max Positive39.1%41.2%59.4%
Max Negative-54.4%-53.7%-58.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024129202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023124202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023816202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022125202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022420202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021126202210-Q 12/31/2021