Liberty Live (LLYVA)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $82.33 | Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Liberty Live (LLYVA)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $82.33Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.9% | |
| Key risksLLYVA key risks include [1] persistent net losses and declining cash reserves that threaten its financial viability, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.9% |
| Key risksLLYVA key risks include [1] persistent net losses and declining cash reserves that threaten its financial viability, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 13% stock movement for Liberty Live (LLYVA) from August 31, 2025, to December 24, 2025: 1. The Split-Off and Initial Trading as a Separate Entity. The completion of the split-off of Liberty Live Holdings from Liberty Media occurred on December 15, 2025, with LLYVA beginning independent trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on December 16, 2025. This transition from a tracking stock to a standalone public company typically introduces new market dynamics and valuation assessments, which can lead to initial volatility and price adjustments as investors re-evaluate the new entity.2. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings. On November 5, 2025, Liberty Media (which encompassed Liberty Live Group at the time) released its third-quarter 2025 earnings report. Following this announcement, LLYVA shares experienced a significant decline of 9.5%, closing at $80.04, as the reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -0.58 substantially missed the consensus analyst estimate of 1.17.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.0% change in LLYVA stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a -0.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.59 | 82.29 | -13.00% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91.78 | 91.89 | -0.12% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | -13.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 8.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | -0.9% | 15.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.4% change in LLYVA stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.06 | 82.29 | 5.42% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91.84 | 91.89 | -0.05% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 5.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 11.9% | 26.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.3% change in LLYVA stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.84 | 82.29 | 21.30% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91.74 | 91.89 | -0.17% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 21.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 57.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | 20.6% | 59.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 128.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | 64.9% | 47.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLYVA Return | � | � | � | � | 82% | 23% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 53% | 15% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLYVA Win Rate | � | � | � | 50% | 83% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 42% | 72% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLYVA Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -8% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -5% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NFLX, DIS, LYV, FWONA, TKO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
LLYVA has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
Compare to
In The Past
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund's stock fell -47.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -47.2% loss requires a 89.5% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Liberty Live (LLYVA):
- It's like investing in the Amazon of live entertainment (concerts, venues, and Ticketmaster).
- Think of it as the dominant global player in live events, akin to how Disney dominates theme parks and media content.
- It's like the Walmart of live music and events, controlling a vast network of venues, artists, and ticketing (Ticketmaster).
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Live Concert Promotion and Production: Through its interest in Live Nation Entertainment, Liberty Live promotes, produces, and stages thousands of live music concerts and festivals globally.
- Ticketing Services: Operates Ticketmaster, a leading global platform for ticket sales and distribution for a wide array of live events.
- Artist Management and Sponsorship: Provides artist management services and connects brands with live event audiences through integrated sponsorship and advertising programs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Liberty Live (LLYVA) is primarily a holding company whose main asset is its controlling interest in Live Nation Entertainment (LYV). Therefore, its "customers" are best understood by looking at the customer base of Live Nation Entertainment, which is a global leader in live entertainment, promoting concerts, selling tickets (through Ticketmaster), and providing artist management services.
Live Nation Entertainment sells primarily to **individuals** who attend various live events. The major categories of individual customers served are:
- Music Fans/Concert-Goers: This is the largest category, encompassing individuals of all ages and demographics who purchase tickets to attend live music concerts across a wide range of genres, from global stadium tours to intimate club performances.
- Sports Fans: Individuals who purchase tickets for live sporting events, including professional league games (e.g., NFL, NBA, NHL, MLS), college sports, motor sports, and other athletic competitions. Ticketmaster is a key ticketing partner for many sports organizations.
- Theater & Arts Enthusiasts: Individuals who attend live theatrical performances (Broadway shows, regional theater), comedy shows, family entertainment (e.g., Disney On Ice), and other cultural events and attractions.
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Derek Chang President and Chief Executive OfficerDerek Chang was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Liberty Media Corporation in January 2025. He is a veteran executive in the global media, sports, and entertainment industries, having led operating, corporate development, and investment teams at prominent companies such as EverPass Media, the NBA, DIRECTV, Scripps, Charter, and TCI. Chang co-founded EverPass Media. He served as CEO of NBA China from 2018 to 2020 and as Head of International Lifestyle Channels at Scripps Network Interactive from 2013 to 2018. Prior to that, he spent seven years as EVP Content Strategy and Development at DIRECTV and was EVP Finance & Strategy and Interim Co-CFO at Charter Communications from 2003 to 2005.
Brian J. Wendling Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Financial OfficerBrian J. Wendling serves as the Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Financial Officer of Liberty Media Corporation and Liberty Broadband Corporation. He has held various positions with these companies and their predecessors since 1999. Before joining Liberty, Mr. Wendling worked in the assurance practice of the accounting firm KPMG. He also serves on the board of Comscore, Inc. and has previously served on the boards of Fun Technologies Inc. and CommerceHub, Inc.
Gregory B. Maffei Executive ChairmanGregory B. Maffei is the Executive Chairman of QVC Group, SiriusXM, and Tripadvisor. He served as President and CEO of Liberty Media Corporation from 2005 to 2025, overseeing acquisitions and investments in companies including the Atlanta Braves, DirecTV, SiriusXM, Live Nation Entertainment, Charter Communications, and Formula 1. Maffei's previous roles include Co-President of Oracle, Chairman, President and CEO of 360networks, and CFO of Microsoft. He also served as Chairman of Expedia and Starz.
Renee L. Wilm Chief Legal Officer and Chief Administrative OfficerRenee L. Wilm is Liberty Media's Chief Legal Officer and Chief Administrative Officer. Before joining Liberty, she was a Senior Partner with Baker Botts L.L.P. for over twenty years, where she represented Liberty and its predecessors. Her legal expertise includes mergers and acquisitions, complex capital structures, shareholder arrangements, securities offerings, corporate governance, and securities law compliance. At Baker Botts, she was a member of the Executive Committee, the East Coast Corporate Department Chair, and Partner-in-Charge of the New York office.
J. David Wargo DirectorJ. David Wargo is the founder and president of Wargo & Company, Inc., a private investment company specializing in the communications industry, which he established in 1993. He was also a co-founder and member of New Mountain Capital, LLC, a private equity firm, from 2000 to 2008. Wargo is also the founder of Peters Creek Entertainment LLC (2010) and served as an Executive Producer for the film “Oppenheimer.” He has held senior roles at The Putnam Companies, Marble Arch Partners, and State Street Research and Management Company. Currently, he serves as a director for Liberty Broadband Corporation, Liberty Global plc, Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings, Inc., and Strayer Education, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Liberty Live's (LLYVA) business are as follows:- Persistent Net Losses and Declining Cash Reserves: Liberty Live Group has reported significant net losses, including in Q2 and Q3 2025, and a decline in cash reserves, raising concerns about its standalone financial viability. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, the company experienced a decrease in revenue and reported operating and net losses.
- Dependence on Live Nation and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Liberty Live Holdings' business model is heavily reliant on its ownership interest in Live Nation, its wholly-owned subsidiary Quint, and other minority investments. The live entertainment sector is susceptible to broader macroeconomic factors, such as rising interest rates and a potential softening in demand for live events post-pandemic, which could adversely affect consumer and corporate spending on the services offered by Live Nation and Quint.
- Increased Corporate Overhead and Challenges of Standalone Spin-Offs: As a recently split-off public company, Liberty Live Holdings anticipates incurring additional annual corporate overhead expenses, estimated at approximately $8.0 million. Moreover, corporate spin-offs generally face challenges, with studies indicating that only a minority of spin-offs sustain value creation beyond five years, often due to difficulties in maintaining operational synergy.
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- Increased regulatory scrutiny and anti-trust investigations into Live Nation Entertainment's (a primary asset of Liberty Live) market dominance, particularly concerning Ticketmaster's ticketing practices and fees. This presents a threat of forced divestitures, significant changes to business models, or stringent regulations impacting revenue.
- Emergence of new ticketing technologies and direct-to-fan platforms aiming to bypass traditional primary ticketing vendors like Ticketmaster. These platforms seek to offer lower fees, greater transparency, and direct artist-to-fan engagement, potentially eroding market share and fee-based revenue models over time.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Liberty Live (LLYVA) primarily derives its value from its interest in Live Nation Entertainment, which operates in the live entertainment, ticketing, and sponsorship and advertising markets globally.
The addressable market sizes for Live Nation's main products or services are as follows:
- Live Entertainment (Concerts): Live Nation Entertainment is described as the world's leading live entertainment company, promoting approximately 55,000 events and engaging over 150 million fans globally in 2024.
- Ticketing: Live Nation's Ticketmaster platform sold nearly 640 million tickets, solidifying its position as a global ticketing giant in 2024.
- Sponsorship & Advertising: Live Nation's sponsorship and advertising segment generated $443 million in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 13% from the prior year. This market is global, as Live Nation expands internationally and seeks strategic partnerships.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Liberty Live (NASDAQ: LLYVA) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key initiatives within its core live entertainment and related assets, primarily its interest in Live Nation. The company's strategic focus areas and market opportunities are expected to fuel an increase in its financial performance.
- Growth in Live Nation's Core Segments: A primary driver of revenue growth for Liberty Live will be the continued expansion and performance of Live Nation's core businesses, which include concerts, sponsorship, and ticketing. As an entertainment company, growth in these segments translates directly into increased ticket sales, enhanced sponsorship deals, and higher advertising revenue.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Investments in Live Entertainment: Liberty Live Group is positioned for diversified growth through strategic acquisitions and investments within the live entertainment sector. While specific new acquisitions for LLYVA were not detailed in recent reports, a strategy of expanding its portfolio of entertainment venues, festivals, or related businesses would contribute to revenue growth.
- Expansion into New Geographic Markets: Liberty Media, the parent entity from which Liberty Live Group is set to split, has indicated a strategy of strengthening its market presence through strategic partnerships and expansions into new markets, such as Brazil and Argentina. Given Live Nation's global reach, such geographical expansion directly contributes to LLYVA's potential for increased revenue by tapping into new audiences and markets.
- Enhancement of Digital Platforms and Hospitality Services: A focus on enhancing digital platforms and hospitality services is expected to drive revenue growth. Improved digital engagement can lead to higher conversion rates for ticket sales and merchandise, while premium hospitality services at events can command higher pricing and boost per-attendee revenue for Live Nation.
- Increased Sponsorship and New Licensing Agreements: Securing increased sponsorship revenue and forging new licensing agreements are crucial for revenue expansion. As a major player in live entertainment, Live Nation can leverage its extensive event portfolio to attract more substantial sponsorships and develop new licensing opportunities with various brands, thereby generating additional revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- As of November 1, 2025, Liberty Media Corporation, the parent company of Liberty Live, had a remaining repurchase authorization of $1.1 billion, which can be applied to repurchases of common shares of any of its tracking stocks, including LLYVA.
- No repurchases of Liberty Media's common stock were made between August 1 and October 31, 2025.
Share Issuance
- In September 2023, Liberty Live Group issued $1.15 billion of 2.375% Live Nation exchangeable senior debentures.
- A portion of the proceeds from the debenture issuance, specifically $858 million, was used to repurchase outstanding 0.5% Live Nation exchangeable senior debentures.
- The planned split-off of Liberty Live Group on December 15, 2025, will involve the redemption of existing Liberty Live common stock (LLYVA) for shares of the newly formed public company, Liberty Live Holdings, Inc.
Inbound Investments
- Berkshire Hathaway initiated an investment in Liberty Live Group (LLYVA) in Q3 2023, acquiring 5.05 million shares.
- As of a recent reporting period, Berkshire Hathaway holds 4.99 million Liberty Live Group shares, valued at $396.33 million, representing 5.43% of the outstanding shares.
Outbound Investments
- Prior to the planned split-off, Liberty Media's subsidiary Quint was reattributed from the Formula One Group to the Liberty Live Group in exchange for certain private assets, effectively bringing Quint under the Liberty Live umbrella.
- Liberty Live Group's strategy includes utilizing its new common stock to facilitate strategic acquisitions in the future.
- Net acquisitions/divestitures for Liberty Live Series A (LLYVA) were reported as $0 million for 2024 and for the twelve months ending June 30, 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Liberty Live Series A (LLYVA) amounted to $22 million in Q2 2025.
- For the fiscal years 2023 and 2024, capital expenditures were reported as $0.00 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures for Liberty Live Group is organic growth through stadium enhancements, expanded event programming, and innovative digital content initiatives.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.2% | -5.2% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.7% | 5.7% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.4% | -27.4% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Liberty Live
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,305 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,108 |
| FCF LTM | 1,261 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,141 |
| CFO LTM | 1,762 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,815 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $82.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/10/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $82.65 | $80.12 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.4% | 2.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.4% | 32.5% |
| Downside Capture | 34.75 | 72.24 |
| Upside Capture | -37.52 | 80.18 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.2% | 57.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 0.98 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | 0.77 | 1.33 | 0.98 | 1.32 | 1.14 | 0.16 |
| Down Beta | -0.03 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.98 | 0.07 |
| Up Capture | -80% | -78% | -46% | 36% | 71% | 70% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 32 | 69 | 133 | 320 |
| Down Capture | 88% | 49% | 60% | 42% | 89% | 92% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 31 | 56 | 115 | 259 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullSEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
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