Liberty Live (LLYVA)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $86.45 | Market Cap: $7.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Liberty Live (LLYVA)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $86.45Market Cap: $7.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -52 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -52 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. The stock experienced a significant gain of approximately 18.37% between November 2025 and March 2026, driven in part by the completion of the Liberty Live Group split-off from Liberty Media. This separation, finalized in December 2025, established Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. as a distinct public company, offering investors a more focused exposure to its live entertainment assets, primarily its interest in Live Nation, along with Quint and other minority investments.
2. A generally positive analyst outlook and robust price targets contributed to investor confidence. As of March 24, 2026, analysts maintained an average one-year price target for Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. of $142.51, with forecasts ranging from $121.75 to $170.87, suggesting substantial upside potential. Additionally, StockInvest.us upgraded its analysis conclusion for LLYVA from a "Sell" to a "Hold" candidate by March 25, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.3% change in LLYVA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.92 | 86.40 | 12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 340 | 382 | 12.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 20.8 | 20.8 | 0.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 92 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 41.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -6.9% | 36.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.7% change in LLYVA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.62 | 86.40 | -8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 340 | 382 | 12.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 25.5 | 20.8 | -18.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 92 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | -8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 25.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.3% | 25.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.8% change in LLYVA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 71.52 | 86.40 | 20.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 340 | 382 | 12.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 19.3 | 20.8 | 7.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 92 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 20.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 56.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 6.2% | 56.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 49.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 106.7% | 45.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLYVA Return | - | - | 2% | 82% | 22% | 10% | 150% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -34% | 29% | 48% | 6% | -21% | 30% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLYVA Win Rate | - | - | 40% | 83% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 25% | 44% | 69% | 48% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLYVA Max Drawdown | - | - | -17% | -8% | -8% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -41% | -4% | -5% | -15% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NFLX, KUST, DIS, LYV, FWONA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
LLYVA has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
Compare to NFLX, KUST, DIS, LYV, FWONA
In The Past
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund's stock fell -47.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -47.2% loss requires a 89.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Liberty Live (LLYVA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Liberty Live (LLYVA):
- Like the Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) of Major League Baseball, owning the Atlanta Braves and their associated real estate.
- Similar to Vail Resorts (MTN), but instead of ski resorts, it owns the Atlanta Braves baseball team and develops the mixed-use area around their stadium.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Professional Baseball Team Ownership & Operations: Owns and operates the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball Club, generating revenue from game tickets, broadcasting rights, and merchandise.
- Stadium Management & Event Hosting: Manages the stadium where the Atlanta Braves play, facilitating baseball games and other events.
- Mixed-Use Real Estate Development: Develops and manages a mixed-use project adjacent to the stadium, encompassing various commercial and residential properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Liberty Live (LLYVA), through its subsidiary Braves Holdings, LLC, which owns the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball Club and the associated stadium and mixed-use development (The Battery Atlanta), sells primarily to other companies for its major revenue streams.
Its major customers include:
- Truist Financial Corporation (TFC): Holds the naming rights for the Atlanta Braves' stadium, Truist Park.
- Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI): Through its subsidiary Bally Sports South, it holds broadcasting rights for Atlanta Braves games.
- Major Corporate Sponsors and Advertisers: Various large companies, such as The Coca-Cola Company (KO) and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), enter into significant sponsorship and advertising agreements with the Atlanta Braves.
- Tenants of The Battery Atlanta: Companies that lease commercial space (e.g., retail, restaurants, hotels, offices) within the mixed-use development adjacent to Truist Park.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
NullAI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of highly interactive, personalized, and often short-form digital entertainment platforms (such as advanced video gaming, esports, virtual reality experiences, and social media platforms emphasizing brief video content) poses a clear emerging threat to the long-term engagement and fan base for traditional, longer-form sports like baseball. These platforms are increasingly capturing the attention and leisure time of younger demographics, fundamentally altering entertainment consumption habits and challenging the sustained interest required for live sporting events and their associated revenue streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Liberty Live (LLYVA), through its subsidiary Braves Holdings, LLC, primarily operates within the professional sports and entertainment industry, centering on the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball Club, stadium operations, and a mixed-use development project. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily within the United States and North America, encompassing key revenue streams such as live sports events, broadcasting rights, sponsorships, and licensed merchandise.
Addressable Markets for Liberty Live's Products and Services:
- Major League Baseball (MLB) Market: The global baseball league industry is projected to grow from approximately $27 billion in 2025 to over $38 billion by 2032, with North America dominating this market due to the popularity of Major League Baseball. The overall Major League Baseball market is projected to grow from USD 13.2 billion in 2025 to USD 21.0 billion by 2033.
- U.S. Sports Events Market: The United States sports event market was valued at USD 163.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 264.7 billion by 2033, with professional sports events accounting for the largest share. Another estimate places the U.S. Sports Events Market at USD 104.81 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 200.09 billion by 2033. North America accounted for over 37% of the global sports events market, which was estimated at USD 485.14 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 884.69 billion by 2033.
- U.S. Sports Broadcasting and Media Market: The United States sports broadcasting media market was valued at USD 30.23 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 34.40 billion by 2035. The U.S. sports broadcasting technology market generated approximately USD 21.99 billion in revenue in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 28.62 billion by 2030. American sports rights were estimated to be worth $22.42 billion in 2019, representing about 44% of the total worldwide sports media market.
- U.S. Sports Sponsorship Market: The sports sponsorship market in the United States was valued at USD 20.31 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 43.45 billion by 2033. North America leads the sports sponsorship market, with a share amounting to USD 22.11 billion in 2024, and is estimated to reach USD 38.79 billion by 2031.
- U.S. Licensed Sports Merchandise Market: The U.S. licensed sports merchandise market reached USD 15.05 billion in 2025. It is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 22.57 billion by 2030, and grow to US$ 20.72 billion by 2033. Overall, the licensed sports merchandise market is projected to reach approximately $30 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Liberty Live (LLYVA) over the next 2-3 years:- Continued Expansion and Performance of The Battery Atlanta: The mixed-use development surrounding Truist Park, The Battery Atlanta, is a significant driver of non-baseball related revenue. This segment has shown substantial growth, with a 45% year-over-year increase in revenue in 2025. Its expansion, including the acquisition of adjacent real estate like Pennant Park, and high visitor traffic, are expected to continue driving rental income, parking revenue, and sponsorship income, which are not subject to league revenue sharing.
- Direct Monetization from BravesVision: The Atlanta Braves' transition to an in-house broadcasting model, BravesVision, represents a strategic shift to directly control and monetize local media rights. This move, initiated after exiting a regional sports network agreement, is anticipated to create new revenue streams and enhance fan engagement by allowing the team to produce and distribute local game broadcasts directly.
- Growth in Live Entertainment Events and Ticketing via Live Nation: As a significant underlying asset of Liberty Live Holdings, Live Nation Entertainment is projected for double-digit growth in operating income for 2026, following a record-breaking 2025. This growth will be driven by promoting a vast number of live music and other events, managing artists, and robust ticket sales through its ticketing segment.
- Expansion of Premium Sports and Entertainment Experiences through Quint: Quint, a consolidated subsidiary of Liberty Live, specializes in providing premium sports and entertainment experiences, including hospitality packages for major events like Formula 1, NBA games, and MotoGP. This segment is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to enhance its capabilities and support long-term growth, with revenue increases seen from events such as NBA Experiences and F1 Experiences.
- Sustained Baseball-Related Revenue Growth: The core baseball operations of the Atlanta Braves continue to contribute to revenue growth. This includes consistent performance in traditional areas such as ticket sales, in-park concessions, and sponsorships. The team reported record-breaking regular season ticket sales and sponsorship revenue in 2025, indicating ongoing demand for the Atlanta Braves' brand and events.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to LLYVA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | OMC | Omnicom | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.1% | 22.1% | -3.7% |
| 02062026 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.6% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 01302026 | RBLX | Roblox | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -7.9% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,842 |
| Op Inc LTM | 916 |
| FCF LTM | 528 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,371 |
| CFO LTM | 1,133 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,590 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | 19.4 |
| P/E | 34.9 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 77.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 20.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $86.40 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/10/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $88.85 | $85.66 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.8% | 0.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.0% | 33.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| Upside Capture | 169.73 | 89.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.5% | 54.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.70 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 0.93 | -0.09 |
| Up Beta | 0.34 | -0.51 | -0.42 | 0.29 | 1.09 | 0.07 |
| Down Beta | 0.44 | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 0.95 | -0.06 |
| Up Capture | 222% | 132% | 133% | 20% | 79% | 96% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 27 | 37 | 69 | 139 | 357 |
| Down Capture | -54% | -33% | -22% | 22% | 74% | 92% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 14 | 23 | 54 | 110 | 282 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLYVA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 28.5% | 33.1% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.1% | 18.3% | 0.33 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 54.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 24.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 49.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 18.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLYVA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 19.5% | 32.4% | 1.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.1% | 20.7% | 0.31 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 14.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLYVA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVA | 9.3% | 32.4% | 1.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.7% | 22.4% | 0.47 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 14.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2172026 | 83.48 | 20,226 | 1,688,501 | 909,736,399 | Form | |
| 2 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2172026 | 81.22 | 44,100 | 3,581,952 | 881,544,770 | Form | |
| 3 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2172026 | 82.25 | 65,071 | 5,352,018 | 887,322,847 | Form | |
| 4 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2172026 | 82.40 | 18,689 | 1,539,884 | 887,361,286 | Form | |
| 5 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Sell | 2172026 | 83.27 | 66,568 | 5,543,424 | 891,288,627 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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