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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.4 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x

Key risks
LLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.4 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x
8 Key risks
LLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has lost about 15% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Delayed FDA Decision on Oral Weight-Loss Pill. Eli Lilly's stock experienced a 4.5% decline on January 15, 2026, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reportedly delayed its decision on the company's oral weight-loss pill, orforglipron. The anticipated approval date was pushed from late March to April 10, 2026, which created market uncertainty and allowed competitor Novo Nordisk to gain a further lead with its own oral obesity treatment that launched in January 2026.

2. Intensifying Competition and Pricing Pressure in the GLP-1 Market. The launch of Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy pill in January 2026 heightened competitive concerns for Eli Lilly's burgeoning GLP-1 franchise. This intensified competition, coupled with "unprecedented" pricing pressure expected in 2026 across the GLP-1 market, contributed to analyst downgrades. On March 17, 2026, one firm downgraded Lilly stock, suggesting the total addressable market might be significantly smaller than widely predicted due to falling prices and patient discontinuation rates. Eli Lilly's 2026 guidance, despite projecting strong revenue growth, also factored in a "price drag in the low- to mid-teens" due to government access agreements and changing pricing dynamics.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.6% change in LLY stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254182026Change
Stock Price ($)1072.89927.03-13.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)59,42065,1799.7%
Net Income Margin (%)31.0%31.7%2.2%
P/E Multiple52.340.2-23.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8978960.1%
Cumulative Contribution-13.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LLY-13.6% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%9.7%
Sector (XLV)-3.9%70.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.9% change in LLY stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)93020254182026Change
Stock Price ($)760.61927.0321.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)53,25865,17922.4%
Net Income Margin (%)25.9%31.7%22.2%
P/E Multiple49.540.2-18.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8988960.2%
Cumulative Contribution21.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LLY21.9% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%15.0%
Sector (XLV)7.4%70.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 13.1% change in LLY stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120254182026Change
Stock Price ($)819.84927.0313.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)45,04365,17944.7%
Net Income Margin (%)23.5%31.7%34.7%
P/E Multiple69.740.2-42.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9008960.4%
Cumulative Contribution13.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LLY13.1% 
Market (SPY)16.3%27.7%
Sector (XLV)3.3%65.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 176.0% change in LLY stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 128.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120234182026Change
Stock Price ($)335.88927.03176.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)28,54165,179128.4%
Net Income Margin (%)21.9%31.7%44.7%
P/E Multiple48.540.2-17.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9028960.6%
Cumulative Contribution176.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LLY176.0% 
Market (SPY)63.3%28.7%
Sector (XLV)20.3%57.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
LLY Return66%34%61%33%40%-16%465%
Peers Return23%18%-7%-0%24%7%78%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%3%87%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LLY Win Rate58%75%58%58%58%25% 
Peers Win Rate57%58%43%45%58%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LLY Max Drawdown-3%-15%-15%0%-19%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-8%-21%-7%-10%-3% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-18.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-22.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven47 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,873 days1,480 days

Compare to JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN

In The Past

Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Eli Lilly (LLY)

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

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Eli Lilly is like **Pfizer** for a wide range of human diseases, with a strong focus on diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune conditions.

Think of it as a **Merck** that's a leading developer of drugs for diabetes, oncology, and neuroscience.

It's the **Johnson & Johnson** of pure prescription drugs, with a broad portfolio from insulins to advanced cancer treatments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Insulin Products (e.g., Basaglar, Humalog, Humulin): A comprehensive portfolio of insulin therapies used for diabetes management.
  • Jardiance: A medication for type 2 diabetes, also recognized for its cardiovascular and renal benefits.
  • Trulicity: An injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist widely used for type 2 diabetes.
  • Alimta: A chemotherapy agent primarily for certain lung cancers and malignant pleural mesothelioma.
  • Cyramza: A targeted therapy for various advanced solid tumors, including gastric, lung, and colorectal cancers.
  • Verzenio: A CDK4/6 inhibitor for the treatment of HR+, HER2- metastatic and early breast cancer.
  • Olumiant: An oral JAK inhibitor prescribed for rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions.
  • Taltz: An IL-17A inhibitor used for a range of psoriatic and spondyloarthritic conditions.
  • Cymbalta: A medication used for depressive disorder, anxiety, and various chronic pain conditions.
  • Emgality: A preventive treatment specifically for migraine and episodic cluster headache.
  • Zyprexa: An antipsychotic medication for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder.
  • Cialis: A widely recognized medication for treating erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia.
  • Forteo: A bone-forming agent prescribed for severe osteoporosis to reduce fracture risk.
  • Retevmo: A targeted therapy for specific types of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and thyroid cancers.

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Major Customers of Eli Lilly (LLY)

Eli Lilly and Company primarily sells its pharmaceutical products to other companies within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers are large pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors, which then supply pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. The major customer companies are:
  • McKesson Corporation (MCK)
  • AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
  • Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)

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  • Incyte Corporation (INCY)
  • Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
  • AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL)
  • Junshi Biosciences (1877.HK)
  • Regor Therapeutics Group
  • Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.
  • Kumquat Biosciences Inc.
  • Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.
  • Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. (FHTX)

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David A. Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer

David A. Ricks joined Eli Lilly and Company in 1996 as a business development associate, working on mergers and acquisitions. Over his career at Lilly, he has held various leadership roles including general manager of Lilly Canada, president and general manager of Lilly China, president of Lilly USA, and president of Lilly Bio-Medicines. He was appointed CEO in January 2017 and became Chairman of the board in June 2017. Before joining Eli Lilly, Mr. Ricks worked as an account representative at IBM.

Lucas Montarce, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Lucas Montarce was appointed Eli Lilly's Chief Financial Officer in September 2024. He joined the company in 2001 and has since held a range of finance leadership roles. His previous positions include serving as CFO of Lilly Research Laboratories, Lilly International, and Elanco Health. Prior to his appointment as CFO, Mr. Montarce was the president and general manager for Lilly's Spain, Portugal, and Greece hub.

Patrik Jonsson, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly International

Patrik Jonsson joined Eli Lilly in 1990 as a sales representative in Sweden. Throughout his career, he has held numerous positions in sales, marketing, and general management internationally, including managing director of Sweden and Scandinavia, president and general manager of Eli Lilly Italia, and president and general manager of Lilly Japan. Most recently, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health and president of Lilly USA, before transitioning to his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly International in May 2025.

Ilya Yuffa, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities

Ilya Yuffa began his career at Eli Lilly in 1996 as a financial analyst. He has held various positions in finance, business development, sales, and general management, including managing director of Lilly Israel and president and general manager of Lilly's Italy Hub. Previously, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly International before assuming his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities in May 2025.

Daniel M. Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President, Lilly Research Laboratories

Daniel M. Skovronsky assumed an expanded role in November 2025 as Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President of Lilly Research Laboratories. In this position, he oversees research and development, as well as global launches and product strategy for Cardiometabolic Health, Immunology, and Neuroscience. He reports directly to Eli Lilly's Chair and CEO, David A. Ricks.

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Eli Lilly and Company, trading as LLY, faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the dynamics of its highly successful GLP-1 drug franchise and the inherent challenges within the pharmaceutical industry.
  1. Dependence on GLP-1 Franchise and Intense Competition/Price War: Eli Lilly's recent growth has been overwhelmingly reliant on its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which creates a strategic vulnerability. The company operates in a fiercely competitive pharmaceutical sector, facing significant challenges from established global players like Novo Nordisk, especially in the diabetes and obesity markets. There are immediate concerns about a "price war" for GLP-1 drugs, which could lead to margin erosion as competitors announce price cuts. Any adverse event or increased competition in this highly concentrated segment could significantly impact the company's valuation and revenue.
  2. Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges: The immense and unprecedented demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, presents a significant manufacturing and supply chain challenge. Even with ongoing manufacturing expansions, there is execution risk in keeping up with this demand. Indicators such as a surging average inventory processing period and plummeting inventory turnover suggest potential issues in managing supply to meet this high demand.
  3. Patent Expirations and Loss of Exclusivity for Key Drugs: While newer blockbuster GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro have patent protection extending to 2036 and 2041, respectively, including follow-on patents, other significant revenue drivers face upcoming expirations. For instance, Trulicity, a major diabetes drug and a key revenue source, is set to lose its U.S. patent exclusivity in 2027. Historically, Eli Lilly has faced challenges from patent expirations for several products, which can lead to a significant decline in revenues as generic alternatives enter the market.

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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) - Addressable Market Sizes for Main Products:

  • Diabetes Products (Basaglar, Humalog, Jardiance, Trajenta, Trulicity):
    • Global Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Therapeutic Market: USD 19,514.5 million in 2024.
    • Global SGLT2 Inhibitors Market (for Type 2 Diabetes and comorbidities like heart failure and chronic kidney disease): USD 19.2 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. SGLT2 Inhibitors Market: USD 7.3 billion in 2024.
  • Oncology Products (Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Retevmo, Tyvyt, Verzenio):
    • Global Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 31.5 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 11.9 billion in 2024.
    • Global Stomach Cancer Treatment Market (Gastric Cancer): USD 5.40 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. Gastric Cancer Market: USD 893.1 million in 2024.
    • Global Thyroid Cancer Market (across 7 major markets including US, EU4, UK, and Japan): USD 2,696.0 million in 2024.
    • North America Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Treatment Market: Over 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 201.00 million in 2024.
  • Immunology Products (Olumiant, Taltz):
    • Addressable markets for rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
  • Neuroscience Products (Cymbalta, Emgality, Zyprexa):
    • Global Schizophrenia Drugs Market: USD 8.36 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. Schizophrenia Market: Approximately USD 6 billion in 2024.
  • COVID-19 Therapeutics (Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, Bebtelovimab):
    • Addressable market for COVID-19 therapeutics could not be specifically sized with recent and relevant data. Null.
  • Men's Health (Cialis):
    • Global Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: USD 12.49 billion in 2024.
    • North America Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: Approximately 35% of the global market in 2024.
    • Addressable market for erectile dysfunction could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
  • Bone Health (Forteo):
    • Global Osteoporosis Treatment Market: USD 15.73 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. Osteoporosis Drugs Market: USD 10.1 billion in 2024.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Continued Strong Performance of Tirzepatide Franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound): Eli Lilly's current GLP-1 medications, Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), are expected to remain significant revenue drivers over the next 2-3 years. These drugs collectively generated substantial revenue in 2025 and continue to exhibit robust demand and sales growth, with Mounjaro's international expansion also contributing.
  • Launch and Rapid Uptake of New Oral GLP-1 Therapies (e.g., Orforglipron): The anticipated approval and launch of new oral GLP-1 medications, particularly orforglipron, are projected to be a major catalyst for future revenue growth. Orforglipron is in late-stage clinical trials, with potential U.S. approval expected as early as Q2 2026. Its convenience as a pill and demonstrated superior efficacy compared to some competitors are expected to drive rapid adoption and significant sales. Another pipeline candidate, retatrutide, also holds considerable potential in the injectable weight-loss drug market.
  • Expanded Manufacturing Capacity to Meet Surging Demand: Eli Lilly is making substantial investments in expanding its global manufacturing capabilities to address the high demand for its GLP-1 drugs and to prepare for new product launches. These multi-billion dollar investments in new and existing facilities are critical to ensuring adequate supply and supporting sustained revenue growth.
  • Broader Market Access and Direct-to-Consumer Initiatives: Efforts to increase patient access through various channels are expected to fuel sales volume. This includes the expansion of the LillyDirect platform, direct-to-employer programs like Employer Connect, and anticipated broader coverage for obesity medicines through Medicare and Medicaid. These initiatives aim to reduce barriers to access and capture a larger share of the growing metabolic health market.
  • Growth in Other Key Products and Pipeline Progression: Beyond the GLP-1 franchise, Eli Lilly's oncology portfolio, including products like Verzenio and Jaypirca, continues to contribute to revenue growth. The company also has a robust pipeline with numerous programs in late-stage development across various therapeutic areas, indicating additional potential future revenue streams.

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Share Repurchases

  • Eli Lilly approved a new $15 billion share repurchase program in December 2024, expected to be executed over the next three years.
  • This program followed the completion of a $5 billion share repurchase program in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company's annual share buybacks were $4.108 billion in 2025, $2.5 billion in 2024, and $750 million in 2023.

Share Issuance

  • The number of outstanding shares showed a slight decline of 0.28% in 2025 to 895,018,757, and a minor increase of 0.09% in 2024 to 0.904 billion, indicating no significant share issuance.

Outbound Investments

  • Eli Lilly has actively pursued acquisitions, including Orna for $2.4 billion (February 2026), Ventyx Biosciences for $1.2 billion (January 2026), and SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion (May 2025).
  • In 2023, major acquisitions included Point Biopharma for $1.4 billion for radiopharmaceutical development, and DICE Therapeutics for $2.4 billion to expand its immunology portfolio.
  • The company plans to invest up to $250 million over eight years in an expanded collaboration with Purdue University to accelerate pharmaceutical innovation, focusing on AI-powered drug discovery and supply chain resilience.

Capital Expenditures

  • Eli Lilly's capital expenditures increased significantly, reaching $7.841 billion in 2025, up from $5.058 billion in 2024 and $3.448 billion in 2023.
  • The company has committed over $55 billion globally to capital expansion since 2020, with over $50 billion specifically in the U.S., primarily to expand manufacturing capacity for GLP-1 therapies and other pipeline medicines.
  • Recent and planned major manufacturing investments include a new $9 billion commitment at its Lebanon, Indiana, site, a $3.5 billion facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, and a $3 billion investment over ten years to expand supply chain capacity in China.

Better Bets vs. Eli Lilly (LLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to LLY.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PGNY_3312026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312026PGNYProgynyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
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CNC_3272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03272026CNCCenteneDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
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2.3%2.3%-0.6%
OSCR_3272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03272026OSCROscar HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.0%3.0%-2.6%
WAT_3202026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03202026WATWatersMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.4%-0.4%-3.3%
GILD_3202026_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03202026GILDGilead SciencesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.6%1.6%-2.2%
LLY_2272026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper02272026LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-12.6%-12.6%-16.5%
LLY_8312025_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V208312025LLYEli LillyInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
44.1%25.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
Mkt Price927.03234.18119.0727.56208.38355.30221.28
Mkt Cap830.4563.8295.4156.7368.6191.2332.0
Rev LTM65,17994,19365,01162,57961,16036,75163,795
Op Inc LTM29,69625,59622,10817,40620,0919,08021,100
FCF LTM5,96419,31312,3609,07517,8168,10010,718
FCF 3Y Avg1,07518,38313,2007,90119,2378,61810,909
CFO LTM16,81324,53016,47211,70419,0309,95816,642
CFO 3Y Avg9,95723,86216,98211,04920,2259,97314,016

Growth & Margins

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
Rev Chg LTM44.7%6.0%1.3%-1.6%8.6%10.0%7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg32.1%2.6%3.2%-12.0%1.9%11.9%2.9%
Rev Chg Q42.6%9.1%5.0%-1.2%10.0%8.6%8.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.7%2.2%1.2%-0.3%2.5%2.2%2.2%
Op Inc Chg LTM74.3%20.5%9.3%16.5%68.9%25.1%22.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg54.7%5.4%170.1%55.5%9.6%-0.1%32.1%
Op Mgn LTM45.6%27.2%34.0%27.8%32.8%24.7%30.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg37.9%25.6%23.5%19.6%26.3%24.8%25.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.1%1.5%-0.9%0.9%8.8%0.6%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM25.8%26.0%25.3%18.7%31.1%27.1%25.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.3%26.7%26.8%17.8%35.5%30.5%26.8%
FCF/Rev LTM9.2%20.5%19.0%14.5%29.1%22.0%19.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%20.6%20.8%12.7%33.8%26.4%20.7%

Valuation

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
Mkt Cap830.4563.8295.4156.7368.6191.2332.0
P/S12.76.04.52.56.05.25.6
P/Op Inc28.022.013.49.018.321.119.7
P/EBIT28.016.813.215.438.816.316.5
P/E40.221.016.220.287.224.822.9
P/CFO49.423.017.913.419.419.219.3
Total Yield3.1%6.9%8.9%11.2%4.3%6.7%6.8%
Dividend Yield0.6%2.2%2.8%6.2%3.2%2.7%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.0%4.6%5.1%5.3%6.0%5.6%5.2%
D/E0.10.10.20.40.20.30.2
Net D/E0.00.00.10.30.20.20.1

Returns

LLYJNJMRKPFEABBVAMGNMedian
NameEli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer AbbVie Amgen  
1M Rtn1.0%-1.4%4.3%0.5%1.9%1.5%1.3%
3M Rtn-10.6%7.7%10.2%9.2%-2.0%8.3%8.0%
6M Rtn15.8%22.6%42.7%16.3%-7.7%20.6%18.5%
12M Rtn11.2%52.9%58.2%33.5%24.4%32.2%32.8%
3Y Rtn155.8%57.6%14.4%-17.9%43.9%58.5%50.7%
1M Excs Rtn-6.6%-8.9%-3.6%-6.7%-6.7%-6.5%-6.6%
3M Excs Rtn-12.7%4.6%5.5%5.6%-4.9%5.8%5.0%
6M Excs Rtn5.7%17.1%37.0%10.1%-13.2%14.4%12.2%
12M Excs Rtn-8.7%24.6%25.4%-0.3%-10.3%-8.0%-4.1%
3Y Excs Rtn82.7%-17.9%-59.4%-94.3%-29.9%-17.7%-23.9%

FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for More
Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #
Brand
Name
Generic
Name
Dosage
Form
FDA
Approval
3M
Rtn
6M
Rtn
1Y
Rtn
2Y
Rtn
Total
Rtn
NDA218881  INLURIYOimlunestrant tosylatetablet925202550.9%25.9%30.1%30.1%30.1%
BLA761306  EBGLYSSlebrikizumab-lbkzinjectable9132024-14.4%-11.6%-17.6%1.4%1.4%
BLA761248  KISUNLAdonanemab-azbtinjectable7022024-2.3%-14.6%-13.5%3.5%3.5%
NDA218160  RETEVMOselpercatinibcapsule410202423.5%21.1%-4.8%25.0%23.4%
NDA217806  ZEPBOUNDtirzepatidesolution1108202317.4%25.6%29.7%51.5%52.4%
BLA761279  OMVOHmirikizumab-mrkzinjectable1026202310.7%28.1%58.2%47.4%66.1%
NDA215866  MOUNJAROtirzepatidesolution51320226.0%21.2%50.7%165.2%228.0%
BLA761215  REZVOGLARinsulin glargine-aglrinjectable121720218.0%9.6%36.4%119.0%260.4%
BLA761109  LYUMJEVinsulin lispro-aabcinjectable61520205.8%12.7%60.9%113.9%598.4%
NDA213246  RETEVMOselpercatinibcapsule50820200.1%-6.1%29.7%100.1%546.8%
...         

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide 34,12428,54128,31824,540
Total 34,12428,54128,31824,540


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide 5,240   
Total 5,240   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide78,71564,006   
Total78,71564,006   


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$927.03 
Market Cap ($ Bil)830.4 
First Trading Date06/01/1972 
Distance from 52W High-16.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$973.14$903.41
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-4.7%2.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility41.2%39.1%
Downside Capture0.060.34
Upside Capture-66.2762.77
Correlation (SPY)14.0%18.1%
LLY Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.620.450.320.460.620.67
Up Beta5.552.942.771.310.420.57
Down Beta0.731.170.660.500.720.73
Up Capture-121%-74%-77%52%66%63%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days8172765139417
Down Capture96%28%22%-3%85%80%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days14253661113334

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LLY
LLY23.4%41.5%0.61-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.6%16.0%0.3963.7%
Equity (SPY)21.1%12.9%1.3219.3%
Gold (GLD)50.9%27.5%1.494.2%
Commodities (DBC)25.2%16.2%1.40-10.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)17.5%13.7%0.9322.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-7.8%42.6%-0.086.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LLY
LLY39.9%32.2%1.10-
Sector ETF (XLV)6.4%14.6%0.2558.0%
Equity (SPY)10.8%17.1%0.4931.3%
Gold (GLD)22.6%17.8%1.045.1%
Commodities (DBC)11.6%18.8%0.511.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%18.8%0.1424.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.2%56.5%0.317.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LLY
LLY30.9%29.8%0.96-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.8%16.5%0.4860.3%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.9%0.6739.9%
Gold (GLD)14.3%15.9%0.754.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%17.6%0.407.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2430.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.4%66.9%1.076.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 315202612.1%
Average Daily Volume3.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity895.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/4/202610.3%2.1%-1.8%
10/30/20253.8%13.8%30.2%
8/7/2025-14.1%-11.5%-2.4%
5/1/2025-11.7%-13.6%-17.8%
1/14/2025-6.6%-6.9%9.5%
10/30/2024-6.3%-10.8%-12.6%
8/8/20249.5%20.7%17.1%
4/30/20246.0%4.0%10.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111215
# Negative12118
Median Positive4.3%6.4%9.5%
Median Negative-4.4%-4.6%-4.6%
Max Positive14.9%20.7%30.2%
Max Negative-14.1%-13.6%-17.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/12/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/19/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/21/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202204/29/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue80.00 Bil81.50 Bil83.00 Bil28.8% Higher NewGuidance: 63.25 Bil for 2025
2026 Performance Margin46.0%46.75%47.5%2.8%1.2%Higher NewGuidance: 45.5% for 2025
2026 Earnings per Share33.534.23546.7% Higher NewGuidance: 23.4 for 2025
2026 Tax Rate18.0%18.5%19.0%   

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Revenue63.00 Bil63.25 Bil63.50 Bil3.7% RaisedGuidance: 61.00 Bil for 2025
2025 Performance Margin (Reported)43.5%44.0%44.5%2.9%1.2%RaisedGuidance: 42.75% for 2025
2025 Performance Margin (Non-GAAP)45.0%45.5%46.0%4.0%1.8%RaisedGuidance: 43.75% for 2025
2025 EPS (Reported)21.822.122.53.1% RaisedGuidance: 21.5 for 2025
2025 EPS (Non-GAAP)2323.423.74.4% RaisedGuidance: 22.4 for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Lilly, Endowment IncDirectSell10620261085.011,3901,508,165100,026,215,790Form
2Lilly, Endowment IncDirectSell123020251085.043,5933,898,531100,029,936,528Form
3Lilly, Endowment IncDirectSell122920251085.172,6292,852,920100,046,557,846Form
4Lilly, Endowment IncDirectSell122920251085.04240260,409100,036,964,206Form
5Lilly, Endowment IncDirectSell112620251109.3015,63217,340,625102,274,384,375Form

LLY Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The investment thesis presents a highly attractive, probability-adjusted skew of 2.33x. This is driven by a 'High Conviction Bull' setup where the competitive moat is actively widening in a secularly growing market. While the downside risk of multiple compression is real, the 70% probability assigned to the upside case—based on overwhelming evidence of market share capture and operational execution—makes the risk-reward profile compelling, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta Compounder

Eli Lilly fits the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype due to its explosive, accelerating revenue growth driven by a new product cycle (GLP-1s), a widening competitive moat against its primary rival, and a corresponding high-premium valuation. The investment thesis hinges on the durability of this hyper-growth phase.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Mounjaro/Zepbound Market Share Dominance and Manufacturing Scale-Up Through 2026

The primary long thesis is centered on Eli Lilly's capture of the majority share in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 market (diabetes and obesity) through its tirzepatide franchise. This is enabled by a superior clinical efficacy profile versus its main competitor and a massive, preemptive capital investment in wholly-owned US manufacturing, mitigating the industry's primary bottleneck.

Mechanism: Lilly captures value by displacing its main competitor, Novo Nordisk, and expanding the overall market. Superior clinical data drives adoption among key physicians, while massive volume growth secures favorable, albeit negotiated, formulary access from payers. The manufacturing investment ensures supply to meet insatiable demand, converting volume into revenue.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market share increased to 60.5% in Q4 2025, with Mounjaro and Zepbound sales surging 110% and 123% YoY, respectively.
  • The company has committed ~$27 billion to new US manufacturing sites, a potentially larger and more focused investment than Novo Nordisk's ~$16.5 billion acquisition of Catalent facilities.
  • Core patents on tirzepatide extend to 2036-2041, providing a significantly longer runway of exclusivity than Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, which faces key patent expirations starting in 2026 in some markets.
  • Company guidance for FY26 revenue is $80-$83 billion, representing ~25% growth and well above prior consensus, indicating high confidence in continued momentum.
PRIMARY RISK
Government and PBM Pricing Pressure on GLP-1 Franchise in 2026

The most significant friction is the intense and structural pressure on net drug pricing from governments (via Medicare negotiation) and Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs). The high volume of the GLP-1 drugs makes them a primary target for cost containment, forcing Lilly to provide substantial rebates and discounts to ensure broad market access.

Mechanism: As volumes for Mounjaro and Zepbound soar, payers gain leverage to demand larger rebates. This erodes net revenue per prescription, creating a headwind that partially offsets volume gains. If this pressure exceeds guidance, it could lead to margin compression and a deceleration in revenue growth, breaking the hyper-growth narrative and causing the high valuation multiple to contract.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management has explicitly guided for a 'low to mid-teens' percentage drag on revenue growth in 2026 due to lower realized prices.
  • In Q4 2025, despite a 46% increase in volume, the company saw a 5% decrease in realized prices, demonstrating the direct impact of these negotiations.
  • Legacy drugs like Trulicity and Verzenio have already been included in the Medicare price negotiation list under the Inflation Reduction Act, setting a precedent for future negotiations on flagship products.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Combined Mounjaro & Zepbound Volume Growth YoY> 35%This is the primary driver of the thesis. Growth must remain exceptionally strong to offset the known pricing headwinds and justify the premium valuation. A drop below this level would signal a potential narrative shift.
Realized Price DeclineMonitor for declines greater than -15%Management has guided for a 'low to mid-teens' decline. Any acceleration beyond this range would signal that payer pressure is worse than expected, directly threatening revenue and EPS forecasts.
U.S. Incretin Market Share (New Prescriptions)> 60%This leading indicator measures the competitive trajectory against Novo Nordisk. Continued share gains confirm the superior clinical profile is translating into commercial dominance. A stall or reversal would be a major red flag.
Core Investment Debate

Execution vs. Expectation: Manufacturing Scale and Pricing Power

BULL VIEW

Massive capital investment in new, wholly-owned US manufacturing facilities will secure supply, while best-in-class drug efficacy will maintain formulary access and pricing power.

CORE TENSION

Can Lilly scale its manufacturing fast enough to meet insatiable GLP-1 demand without quality issues, while defending prices against intense payer and political pressure?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The Neutral verdict is supported by the direct conflict between a 46% volume surge in Q4 2025 and a simultaneous 5% decline in realized prices, encapsulating the bull/bear tension.

BEAR VIEW

Rapid manufacturing scale-up invites execution risk (FDA scrutiny, delays). Payer consolidation and political pressure will force price concessions, compressing margins sooner than expected.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late April 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Manufacturing & Supply Update
Watch: Any reports of new Zepbound/Mounjaro shortages or FDA Form 483 observations at key manufacturing sites. Volume growth vs. guidance.
June 5-8, 2026
Competitor Data at ADA Conference
Watch: Detailed weight loss and safety data from Novo Nordisk's CagriSema REIMAGINE 2 trial versus Zepbound.
Anytime (Ongoing)
Real-World Safety Data for Donanemab
Watch: Incidence rate of Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities (ARIA) from the FDA's FAERS database or medical journals.
Ongoing
Valuation Compression from Macro Shift
Watch: 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield definitively breaking and holding above the 4.5% level.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
Aug 7, 2025
Legal: Texas AG Lawsuit Filed
Details: The Texas Attorney General filed a lawsuit alleging illegal kickbacks related to Mounjaro and Zepbound, creating significant legal and compliance risk for the company's core franchise.
Plummeted 14.1%
$743.64 -> $638.51
Sep 16, 2025
Legal: Medicaid Fraud Case Ruling
Details: Despite losing an appeal related to underpaying Medicaid rebates resulting in damages of nearly $184 million, the stock rose as the market had already priced in the negative outcome.
Rose significantly by 2.2%
$747.09 -> $763.58
Nov 4, 2025
Q3 2025 Earnings Report
Details: Reported strong results driven by continued GLP-1 momentum, demonstrating accelerating market share capture from competitor Novo Nordisk and raising forward guidance.
Modest 1.2% gain
$895.21 -> $905.53
Dec 15, 2025
Strategic: Donanemab FDA Approval
Details: The FDA approved Donanemab for early Alzheimer's disease, marking the launch of a major new product, though its commercial potential is debated due to safety concerns.
Rose significantly by 3.4%
$1027.51 -> $1062.19
Feb 3, 2026
Competitor Data Announcement
Details: Competitor Novo Nordisk announced positive headline results for its combination drug CagriSema, signaling a credible future threat to Zepbound's clinical superiority.
Fell notably by 3.9%
$1044.13 -> $1003.46
Feb 4, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance
Details: Reported a significant revenue and EPS beat driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound. Issued strong 2026 guidance of $80-$83B, well above prior consensus.
Surged +10.3%
$1003.46 -> $1107.12
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4%-6%

NORMAL

Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.3x S&P). While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and Expensive valuation limit conviction. Sizing is capped at Normal to balance the strong growth story with high volatility.

Diversification Alternatives
VRTX
INDUSTRY

Has a durable monopoly in Cystic Fibrosis, providing stable cash flow. Less concentrated franchise risk and a more reasonable valuation compared to LLY.

Core Thesis: Maintain CF dominance while leveraging its science to launch new blockbuster drugs in other areas like pain or diabetes, creating diversified growth drivers.
CRMD
SECTOR

A pure-play on the successful commercial launch of a single niche product (Defencath). This avoids LLY's macro valuation risk and complex global manufacturing challenges.

Core Thesis: The investment case is a focused bet on the successful commercialization of Defencath, a product addressing a high unmet need for preventing catheter-related infections.
How Is The Market Pricing LLY?

Eli Lilly is re-rating from a diversified pharmaceutical company into a dominant growth compounder, driven by a near-duopoly in the ~$150B+ GLP-1 obesity/diabetes market and a high-impact pipeline in Alzheimer's disease.

Filter all news through the lens of GLP-1 market share defense/expansion and Alzheimer's pipeline progression.

What will confirm the thesis

Zepbound/Mounjaro prescription volume growth outpacing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy/Ozempic; Positive Phase 3 data or FDA approval for pipeline drugs Orforglipron, Retatrutide, or Donanemab; Manufacturing capacity expansion announcements.

What will damage the thesis

Sustained market share losses to Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 class; Negative clinical trial results or FDA rejection for key pipeline assets; Significant government-imposed price controls on obesity drugs impacting gross margin.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly sales fluctuations of legacy drugs (e.g., legacy insulins); Early-stage (Phase 1) pipeline announcements; Minor patent litigation on non-core assets.

Repricing Catalyst

The successful commercialization of Zepbound for obesity, which, combined with Mounjaro for diabetes, has established a dominant position in the GLP-1 market, projected to exceed $150B by 2030. [10] This is coupled with the anticipated 2026 launch of oral GLP-1 agonist Orforglipron, which has peak sales estimates exceeding $30-$40 billion, potentially expanding the market to injection-averse patients. [8, 9]

What LLY Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release, Feb 4, 2026
Diabetes & Obesity (GLP-1 Franchise)
$46.8B TTM (61% of Total) · 83.2% Margin
What It Is

Tirzepatide (marketed as Mounjaro for Type 2 Diabetes and Zepbound for Obesity); Dulaglutide (marketed as Trulicity for Type 2 Diabetes).

Who Pays & How

End-payers are health insurers, governments (Medicare/Medicaid), and patients who pay for clinically superior, patent-protected therapies that demonstrate significant efficacy in glucose control and weight loss. Major US drug wholesalers (AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health, McKesson) are the primary direct customers, but are intermediaries.

Per-unit sale to wholesalers, with rebates paid to pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) and insurers.
Competition
Novo Nordisk - Semaglutide (marketed as Ozempic for Diabetes and Wegovy for Obesity).
Novo Nordisk had a first-mover advantage with Wegovy and has strong brand recognition. They are also developing next-generation obesity treatments. [23]
Tirzepatide (Zepbound) demonstrated superior weight loss efficacy (mean of 20.2%) versus Semaglutide (Wegovy) (13.7%) in a head-to-head trial. [30] Lilly also has a robust next-generation pipeline with oral orforglipron and triple-agonist retatrutide.
Oncology
$6.4B TTM (8% of Total) · 83.2% Margin
What It Is

Verzenio (abemaciclib) for breast cancer; Cyramza (ramucirumab) for various cancers; Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) for mantle cell lymphoma and CLL.

Who Pays & How

Insurers and government health systems pay for patented drugs that extend survival or improve quality of life for cancer patients, typically prescribed by specialist oncologists.

Per-unit sales to wholesalers and specialty pharmacies.
Competition
Pfizer - Ibrance (palbociclib) competes with Verzenio.
Ibrance was the first-to-market CDK4/6 inhibitor, establishing a strong initial market position in HR+ breast cancer.
Verzenio has demonstrated a statistically significant overall survival benefit in certain breast cancer patient populations, a key differentiator. The oncology pipeline has several late-stage assets.
Next-Generation Pipeline (Alzheimer's & New Obesity Drugs)
$0.0B TTM (% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Donanemab (Alzheimer's Disease), Orforglipron (oral GLP-1 for Obesity), Retatrutide (GGG tri-agonist for Obesity).

Who Pays & How

Future payers (insurers, governments) would pay for a drug that can demonstrably slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease, a massive unmet medical need. For new obesity drugs, payers will cover more convenient (oral) or more effective options.

Per-unit sales, likely of high-cost specialty biologic or novel small molecule drugs.
Competition
Biogen/Eisai - Leqembi (lecanemab) for Alzheimer's; Novo Nordisk for next-generation obesity drugs.
Leqembi is already approved and on the market for early Alzheimer's, giving it a first-mover advantage. Novo Nordisk has a deep pipeline and strong commercial infrastructure in the obesity market.
Donanemab has shown strong amyloid plaque clearance. Retatrutide has demonstrated the highest level of weight loss yet in clinical trials (28.7% mean). [30] Orforglipron offers the convenience of an oral pill with injectable-like efficacy. [9]
Other Established Products
$24.0B TTM (31% of Total) · 83.2% Margin
What It Is

Immunology drugs (Taltz, Omvoh); Neuroscience drugs (Emgality, Cymbalta); Other diabetes products (Jardiance, Humalog); Other various products (Cialis, Forteo).

Who Pays & How

Insurers and patients pay for established, branded drugs across a wide range of chronic and acute conditions, facing competition from generics for older, off-patent products.

Per-unit sales to wholesalers, subject to rebates.
Competition
Various - Differs by product. Includes major pharma players like Pfizer, Merck, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, and generic manufacturers.
Competitors offer alternative mechanisms of action or lower-cost generic versions of Lilly's off-patent drugs.
For in-patent drugs like Taltz, the moat is clinical differentiation and established physician experience. For older products, the moat is minimal.
LLY Evolution: Price Return by Era
1988–2013 · The Prozac & Diversified Blockbuster Era
Pioneering Modern Antidepressants and Expanding Portfolio Relatively stable, with periods of volatility around key patent expirations.
Following the launch of the revolutionary antidepressant Prozac in 1988, Lilly entered an era defined by blockbuster drugs across multiple therapeutic areas. [4] This period saw the launch of major products like the antipsychotic Zyprexa (1996), the erectile dysfunction drug Cialis (2003), and the oncology drug Alimta (2004). [15, 16, 25] The company built a diversified portfolio, but also faced the eventual pressure of major patent expirations, including for Prozac in 2001.
2014–2021 · The Incretin Foundation & Oncology Build-out
Planting the Seeds of GLP-1 Dominance +390% (Jan 2014 – Dec 2021)
The launch of the once-weekly GLP-1 agonist Trulicity in late 2014 marked a critical turning point, establishing Lilly as a major force in the modern treatment of type 2 diabetes. [1, 11] This drug became a multi-billion dollar cornerstone, providing the cash flow and expertise that would enable the next generation of therapies. During this time, the oncology portfolio also matured with the continued growth of drugs like Verzenio.
2022–Present · The GLP-1 Revolution
Unlocking Hyperscale Growth in Obesity and Diabetes +245% (Jan 2022 – Apr 2026)
This era is defined by the launch of the dual-agonist tirzepatide, first as Mounjaro (2022) for diabetes and then Zepbound (2023) for obesity. These products demonstrated superior efficacy, seizing market share and fundamentally transforming the company's growth trajectory and valuation. [30] The focus shifted decisively to the massive obesity market, supported by huge investments in manufacturing and a deep pipeline of next-generation oral and injectable treatments.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is mildly positive. The trend shows early signs of health but hasn't fully committed. Relative to SPY: Performance in line with the broader market with no relative edge or drag in current window. Volume and momentum are clearly negative. OBV (on-balance volume) and volume character point to institutional exit. Earnings history is mildly cautionary. The reaction or drift are negative, and the market is beginning to push back on the thesis.
① Structure
+1
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-2 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Pullback in Uptrend · -
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Diminishing Reward
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars