Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $5.47 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $5.47Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 101% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -31 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 101% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 128% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LAC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Lithium Americas (LAC) experienced an approximate 81.9% increase in value during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by several key developments related to its Thacker Pass project and financial strategy.
1. Ongoing Advancement of the Thacker Pass Project. Lithium Americas consistently reported significant progress in the construction and engineering of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada. By June 30, 2025, detailed engineering was approximately 70% complete, with expectations to exceed 90% by the end of 2025. Commencement of steel fabrication for the facilities was noted in April 2025, with initial installations targeted for September 2025. This steady advancement towards the targeted mechanical completion of Phase 1 by late 2027 provided continuous positive sentiment to investors.
2. Major U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Drawdown and Government Support. A significant catalyst was the U.S. government's solidified commitment to the Thacker Pass project. In October 2025, Lithium Americas finalized amendments to its $2.23 billion guaranteed loan from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and subsequently received its first drawdown of $435 million on October 20, 2025. This substantial financial backing, coupled with earlier news in late September 2025 regarding the U.S. government exploring an equity stake, significantly de-risked the project and signaled strong federal confidence in domestic lithium production.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAC Return | 296% | 132% | -35% | -66% | -54% | 83% | 72% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 15% | 14% | -4% | -3% | 41% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAC Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 28% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAC Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -36% | -69% | -67% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -6% | -9% | -13% | -12% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 602.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 597 days | 120 days |
Compare to WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK
In The Past
Lithium Americas's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 602.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Lithium Americas Stock with -24% Return (vs. -14% YTD) [7/30/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Lithium Americas Stock with -21% Return (vs. -11% YTD) [7/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| LAC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Lithium Americas Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -53.6% in 2024 and -53.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Can Lithium Americas Stock Double Again? | October 21st, 2025 | ||
| Lithium Americas Stock A Buy? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| LAC Stock Down -24% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 31st, 2025 | ||
| LAC Stock Down -21% after 5-Day Loss Streak | July 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lithium Americas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -8 |
| FCF LTM | -45 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -31 |
| CFO LTM | -5 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | -11.1 |
| P/E | -11.9 |
| P/CFO | -11.7 |
| Total Yield | -4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 52.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 100.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 42.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 85.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3182024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 10042023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8222023 | 20FR12B 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |