Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $4.6 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Lithium Americas (LAC)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $4.6Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 129% Key risksLAC key risks include [1] aggressive shareholder dilution from its pre-revenue capital needs, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 129% |
| Key risksLAC key risks include [1] aggressive shareholder dilution from its pre-revenue capital needs, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Quarterly Earnings Miss and Continued Net Losses.
Lithium Americas reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.17 for Q4 2025 on March 18, 2026, significantly missing analysts' expectations of -$0.05 by 240.00%. The company posted a net loss of $98.7 million for the fourth quarter and a total loss of $122.1 million for the full year 2025. This underperformance against financial expectations likely dampened investor sentiment, contributing to the stock's inability to achieve sustained upward momentum.
2. High Capital Expenditures and Development Risks for Thacker Pass.
The company announced 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion for Phase 1 of its Thacker Pass project, indicating substantial ongoing investment. While the project secured $2.23 billion in financing from the U.S. Department of Energy, with the first $435 million drawdown received, Lithium Americas is described as "quickly burning through cash" with a negative levered free cash flow of $647 million in the last twelve months. These significant capital demands and inherent development risks, including potential cost overruns, introduce financial uncertainty that can temper stock appreciation.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.6% change in LAC stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.36 | 4.56 | 4.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 239 | 298 | -19.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC | 4.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.3% | 49.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.1% change in LAC stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.71 | 4.56 | -20.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 220 | 298 | -26.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC | -20.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 32.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.3% | 32.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.3% change in LAC stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.71 | 4.56 | 68.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 219 | 298 | -26.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC | 68.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.3% | 16.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC | -79.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 24.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 34.5% | 26.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAC Return | 132% | -35% | -66% | -54% | 47% | 1% | -65% |
| Peers Return | 630% | 19% | -22% | -47% | 92% | 18% | 711% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAC Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 48% | 42% | 44% | 60% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAC Max Drawdown | -4% | -36% | -69% | -67% | -21% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -37% | -38% | -60% | -36% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ALB, SGML, SLI, CMP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 602.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 597 days | 120 days |
Compare to ALB, SGML, SLI, CMP
In The Past
Lithium Americas's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 602.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Lithium Americas (LAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Lithium Americas (LAC):
- 1. A future major mining company, like a Freeport-McMoRan, but solely focused on discovering and extracting lithium for electric vehicle batteries.
- 2. The raw material equivalent of an early-stage ExxonMobil or Chevron, but for the crucial lithium supply chain powering the electric vehicle revolution.
- 3. Similar to how a company like Rio Tinto or BHP extracts core industrial commodities, but Lithium Americas is singularly focused on developing lithium mines for the new energy economy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Lithium: A critical light metal primarily used in the production of rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and grid-scale energy storage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlLithium Americas Corp. (LAC) is engaged in the exploration and development of lithium properties, primarily the Thacker Pass project. As a company focused on extracting and processing raw materials for industrial use, it sells primarily to other companies (B2B) rather than individuals.
Its major identified customer for future production from the Thacker Pass project is:
- General Motors (NYSE: GM)
General Motors has made a significant equity investment in Lithium Americas Corp. and has secured an off-take agreement for 100% of the lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) produced from Phase 1 of the Thacker Pass project.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jonathan Evans, Director, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Evans has over 20 years of operations and general management experience. He has held executive management roles at various companies, including Vice President and General Manager for the Lithium Division at FMC Corporation (USA). Notably, he served as the Chief Operating Officer of DiversiTech Corporation, which was a portfolio company of the private equity group, Permira. His career also includes roles at Arysta LifeScience, AMRI Corporation, and General Electric.
Luke Colton, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Colton joined Lithium Americas on January 29, 2025, bringing over two decades of financial and leadership experience in the mining sector. He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer of Minova International from mid-2023 to late-2024. Previously, Mr. Colton spent over five years as CFO of Turquoise Hill Resources and a director of Oyu Tolgoi, where he oversaw large-scale mining operations and the development of a multi-billion-dollar underground copper mine in Mongolia. He remained CFO of Turquoise Hill Resources through its privatization by Rio Tinto. His background also includes serving as CFO of Richards Bay Minerals and various roles at Rio Tinto and its subsidiaries.
Richard Gerspacher, Executive Vice President, Capital Projects & Operations
Mr. Gerspacher has served as the Executive Vice President, Capital Projects and Operations since January 1, 2026. Prior to this, he was Executive Vice President, Capital Projects since the Company's separation in October 2023, and Senior Vice President, Capital Projects at the predecessor company from February 2022 to October 2023.
Tim Crowley, Senior Vice President, Government and External Affairs
Mr. Crowley has held the position of Senior Vice President, Government and External Relations since January 1, 2026. Before this, he served as Vice President, Government and External Relations following the separation in October 2023. His previous roles include Principal of Crowley & Ferrato Public Affairs from 2014 to 2021 and President of the Nevada Mining Association.
Edward Grandy, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Mr. Grandy has been the Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary since the Company's separation in October 2023. He previously served as Vice President of Legal and Regulatory Affairs of the predecessor company from 2018 to October 2023. From 2012 to 2018, he was General Counsel of Barrick's copper business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Lithium Americas (LAC):
-
Execution Risk of the Thacker Pass Project: As a pre-revenue company with a significant capital burn, Lithium Americas faces substantial execution risks related to the development and construction of its Thacker Pass project. These risks include potential delays in construction, cost overruns, and challenges in commissioning and ramping up the large-scale mining and processing facility to commercial production, which is targeted for late 2027 or early 2028.
-
Environmental and Indigenous Rights Challenges: The Thacker Pass project is subject to ongoing environmental and legal challenges, including opposition from Indigenous tribes and environmental groups. These groups allege that the mine's permit violates Indigenous peoples' rights, desecrates sacred land, and poses threats to water resources and the environment. Such challenges can lead to significant project delays, increased costs, and potential reputational damage for the company.
-
Lithium Price Volatility: The future profitability of Lithium Americas is highly dependent on the market price of lithium. The price of lithium has demonstrated significant volatility, with current prices being substantially lower than their peak in 2022. Should lithium prices remain depressed or decline further when the Thacker Pass project begins commercial production, it could negatively impact the project's financial returns and overall profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Lithium Americas (LAC) is the widespread adoption of alternative battery chemistries that do not rely on lithium.
Sodium-ion batteries are actively being developed, produced, and integrated into commercial products, including electric vehicles and energy storage systems by major manufacturers. While currently having lower energy density compared to high-performance lithium-ion batteries, they offer cost advantages, avoid reliance on potentially scarce lithium resources, and represent a direct alternative for a significant portion of the battery market. Continued advancements and scaling of sodium-ion technology, or other non-lithium chemistries, pose a fundamental threat to the long-term demand growth for lithium, directly impacting companies like Lithium Americas that are solely focused on lithium extraction and development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lithium Americas (LAC) is primarily focused on the exploration and development of lithium properties, with its main product being battery-quality lithium carbonate from its Thacker Pass project in northern Nevada, United States. The company aims to supply this critical material to the North American electric vehicle (EV) supply chain. Some sources also indicate the potential for producing lithium hydroxide.
Addressable Markets for Lithium Americas' Main Products:
The addressable markets for Lithium Americas' main products (lithium carbonate and potentially lithium hydroxide) are the global and U.S. markets for these lithium compounds, driven predominantly by the demand for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Global Lithium Market:
- The global lithium market size was valued at approximately USD 16.46 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 78.49 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.90%.
- Another estimate places the global lithium market size at USD 22.36 billion in 2023, expected to increase from USD 13.90 billion in 2024 to USD 55.52 billion by 2032, registering a CAGR of 18.9%.
U.S. Lithium Market:
- The U.S. lithium market is valued at approximately USD 1.05 billion.
- It is projected to reach USD 13.45 billion by 2032, primarily fueled by battery production for electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Global Lithium Carbonate Market:
- The global lithium carbonate market size was valued at approximately USD 30.75 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow from USD 35.51 billion in 2026 to USD 112.21 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.47%.
- Other estimates for the global lithium carbonate market size range from USD 9.69 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 27.75 billion by 2034, to USD 26.92 billion in 2024, projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.3% from 2025 to 2034.
North American Lithium Carbonate Market:
- North America accounts for approximately 15% of the global lithium carbonate market, driven by the rapid expansion of battery manufacturing capacity and increasing electric vehicle adoption.
Global Lithium Hydroxide Market:
- The global lithium hydroxide market size is estimated at USD 29.15 billion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 106.22 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 15.45%.
- Other forecasts indicate the global lithium hydroxide market size was valued at USD 28.44 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 117.07 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 15.2% during 2026-2035.
U.S. Lithium-Ion Battery Market (Primary End-Use Market):
- The U.S. lithium-ion battery market was valued at USD 15.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.3% during 2025–2032, reaching USD 65.1 billion in 2032.
- Another source reports the U.S. lithium-ion battery market size as approximately USD 54.98 billion in 2023, predicted to grow to around USD 350.46 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of roughly 20.40%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Lithium Americas (LAC) over the next 2-3 years:
-
Commencement and Ramp-up of Thacker Pass Production (Phase 1): Lithium Americas is currently a pre-revenue company, and its primary future revenue growth is entirely dependent on the successful completion and operational ramp-up of Phase 1 of the Thacker Pass project. Mechanical completion for Phase 1 is targeted for late 2027, with initial production potentially beginning in 2026 and full production expected in 2027 or 2028, aiming for a nominal design capacity of 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate.
-
Secured Offtake Agreement with General Motors (GM): A significant portion of the planned Phase 1 production from Thacker Pass is already secured through a long-term offtake agreement with General Motors. This agreement, which includes GM having full access to 100% of Phase 1 lithium production and a stake in the project, provides a guaranteed customer and demand for the initial output, ensuring a stable revenue stream once commercial operations commence.
-
Favorable Lithium Market Demand and Pricing: The overall market for lithium is projected to experience strong growth due to increasing demand from the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors. Analysts anticipate a rise in global demand faster than supply, which could lead to a more favorable pricing environment for lithium. This anticipated market dynamic is expected to positively influence Lithium Americas' revenue as Thacker Pass comes online and scales production.
-
Potential for Future Phases of Thacker Pass: Beyond Phase 1, the Thacker Pass project has a total nominal design capacity of 160,000 tonnes per year across five phases. While Phase 1 is the immediate focus, progress on planning or early development for subsequent phases within the next 2-3 years would signal significant future expansion opportunities and corresponding revenue growth potential. The offtake agreement with GM also includes a portion of Phase 2 production and a right of first offer on the remaining Phase 2 volumes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- In April 2024, Lithium Americas announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 55,000,000 common shares at $5.00 per share, generating aggregate gross proceeds of $275,000,000.
- In November 2025, the company launched an at-the-market (ATM) equity program to offer and sell common shares with a total value of up to $250 million.
- Under the ATM program, the company issued and sold 18.905 million common shares in Q3 2025 at an average price of $3.10 per share, resulting in aggregate net proceeds of $57.5 million.
Inbound Investments
- General Motors (GM) made a $650 million equity investment in Lithium Americas for the development of the Thacker Pass mine, announced in January 2023. This included an initial investment of $320 million.
- In October 2024, GM agreed to inject an additional $625 million into the Thacker Pass Project, establishing a joint venture where GM acquired a 38% stake. This investment comprised a $430 million cash payment and a $195 million letter of credit to the joint venture.
- The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) provided a conditional commitment for a $2.26 billion loan in March 2024 for the construction of Phase 1 of Thacker Pass. The first drawdown of $435 million from this loan was received in October 2025. The total DOE loan includes $1.97 billion in principal and an estimated $256 million in capitalized interest during construction.
- In March 2025, Lithium Americas announced a strategic investment of $250 million from Orion Resource Partners LP, which included the purchase of $195 million in senior unsecured convertible notes and a $25 million Production Payment Agreement.
- The U.S. government acquired a 5% stake in Lithium Americas Corp. and a separate 5% stake in the Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors in September 2025, through no-cost warrants.
Capital Expenditures
- As of December 31, 2023, management estimated approximately $2.736 billion in remaining capital expenditures for the construction of Phase 1 of the Thacker Pass project. The total forecasted capital expenditure for the Thacker Pass mine is roughly $2.9 billion.
- In 2024, $179.9 million of construction capital costs and other project-related costs were capitalized.
- Lithium Americas is targeting a capital expenditure range of $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion for Phase 1 of its Thacker Pass project in 2026, with the majority ($1.2 billion to $1.5 billion) allocated to project construction. The primary focus of these expenditures is to advance construction towards mechanical completion of the processing plant in late 2027 and full ramp-up through 2028.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to LAC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.1% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.2% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -16.7% |
| 03062026 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 9.8% | -6.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 110 |
| Op Inc LTM | -12 |
| FCF LTM | -7 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -41 |
| CFO LTM | 2 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -13 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -25.7 |
| P/E | -27.8 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | -3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 127.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -19.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 100.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -91.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/25/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -54.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.45 | $4.58 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.4% | -0.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.8% | 129.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.56 | 0.18 |
| Upside Capture | 261.41 | 94.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.3% | 11.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.04 | 2.89 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 1.29 | 1.54 |
| Up Beta | 1.46 | 2.75 | 0.32 | 1.72 | 1.36 | 1.20 |
| Down Beta | 2.30 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 3.31 | 1.88 | 1.61 |
| Up Capture | 312% | 312% | 501% | 249% | 115% | 213% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 31 | 53 | 120 | 338 |
| Down Capture | 326% | 288% | 271% | 210% | 90% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 70 | 122 | 399 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 75.8% | 129.1% | 0.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 29.7% | 16.7% | 1.38 | 9.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 11.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 2.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 20.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | -15.6% | 86.7% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.3% | 18.9% | 0.28 | 37.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 35.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 13.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 18.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 23.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | -1.4% | 84.4% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.8% | 20.6% | 0.47 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 37.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 13.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 21.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 27.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 21.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/19/2026 | -6.3% | -5.4% | |
| 11/13/2025 | -5.5% | 5.1% | -1.0% |
| 8/14/2025 | -3.1% | -7.5% | -3.1% |
| 3/28/2025 | -5.9% | -5.9% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | ||
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -5.9% | -1.7% |
| Max Positive | 5.1% | ||
| Max Negative | -6.3% | -7.5% | -3.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/18/2024 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 10/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 08/22/2023 | 20FR12B |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Capex | 1.30 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 1.60 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Thacker Pass Phase 1 construction costs | 1.20 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.50 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Other capitalized development costs | 30.00 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capitalized interest | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Workforce | 1,800 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1,800 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Engineering Design Completion | 0.9 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.9 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Site Personnel | 1,000 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1,000 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Site Personnel | 1,800 | ||||||
| 2026 DOE Loan Reserve Contribution | 120.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grandy, Edward | Sr VP, GC & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 8.24 | 14 | 115 | 1,116,124 | Form |
| 2 | Grandy, Edward | Sr VP, GC & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 8.24 | 14 | 115 | 1,116,124 | Form |
| 3 | Barnum, Aubree | VP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 4.50 | 4,763 | 21,434 | 298,678 | Form |
| 4 | Gerspacher, Richard | EVP, Capital Projects | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 4.50 | 6,118 | 27,531 | 655,384 | Form |
| 5 | Crowley, Timothy Ambrose | VP, Gov & External Affairs | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 4.50 | 4,763 | 21,434 | 597,213 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.