Karman (KRMN)
Market Price (2/2/2026): $103.99 | Market Cap: $13.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Karman (KRMN)
Market Price (2/2/2026): $103.99Market Cap: $13.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 32x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 205x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 1,212x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Advanced Air Mobility. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 245% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% | |
| Key risksKRMN key risks include [1] an elevated valuation compared to peers, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 32x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 205x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 1,212x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 107%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 245% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Key risksKRMN key risks include [1] an elevated valuation compared to peers, Show more. |
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.2% change in KRMN stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.24 | 103.80 | 23.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 428 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 1,211.6 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 132 | 132 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KRMN | 23.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.5% | 57.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.7% | 53.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 100.8% change in KRMN stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.70 | 103.80 | 100.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 428 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 1,211.6 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 132 | -6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KRMN | 100.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.3% | 42.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KRMN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.0% | 43.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 20.8% | 45.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KRMN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 76.6% | 43.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 69.5% | 45.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KRMN Return | - | - | - | - | 143% | 52% | 269% |
| Peers Return | -9% | -14% | 69% | -8% | 48% | 4% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KRMN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 91% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 63% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KRMN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -11% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -37% | -2% | -11% | -33% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, FJET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KRMN has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, FJET
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Karman (KRMN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
I was unable to identify a public company specifically named "Karman" with the stock symbol KRMN. However, there is a prominent public company, Kaman Corporation (symbol: KAMN), which is sometimes confused with similar names. Its major products and services are:
- Aerospace Products: Kaman manufactures highly engineered components and subassemblies for commercial and military aircraft, including rotorcraft bearings, aerostructures, and systems.
- Industrial Distribution: This segment distributes a wide range of industrial products, such as bearings, power transmission, fluid power, and automation solutions, along with related technical services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Karman (symbol: KRMN) primarily sells its services and solutions to other companies and government entities (Business-to-Business, B2B).
Major Customers:
-
U.S. Government: Karman's most prominently identified major customer is the U.S. Government, specifically agencies within the Department of Defense focused on space programs and national security. Key agencies Karman has contracted with include:
- U.S. Space Force: For contracts related to orbital debris removal missions and other national security space initiatives.
- Defense Innovation Unit (DIU): For the development of advanced in-space manufacturing and assembly capabilities.
As a government entity, the U.S. Government does not have a public stock symbol.
While Karman also targets the broader commercial space industry for its advanced manufacturing, in-space servicing, and debris removal solutions, specific major public company customers within this sector have not been widely disclosed in public filings or press releases at this time.
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Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer
Tony Koblinski has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Karman since 2021, leading the company's vision and strategic growth. He has over 25 years of experience in building integrated systems and processes. Before joining Karman, Mr. Koblinski was President and Chief Executive Officer of Madison-Kipp Corporation from September 2011 to November 2020. His prior roles include National Vice President of Homebuilding Operations at Pulte Homes in 2007, Vice President of Operations for Bombardier Recreational Products in 2002, and various leadership positions at General Motors and Saturn Corporation.
Mike Willis, Chief Financial Officer
Mike Willis joined Karman as Chief Financial Officer in November 2022. He is responsible for overseeing the organization's financial activities and has over 17 years of experience in finance and operations management. Mr. Willis possesses domestic and international finance experience in the Aerospace, Automotive, and Energy segments. Prior to Karman, he served as the Director of Finance of Precision Castparts Corp within the Forgings Division, where he was responsible for 14 businesses across five countries.
Jonathan Beaudoin, Chief Operating Officer
Jonathan Beaudoin has served as the Chief Operating Officer of Karman since July 2024. He brings over 18 years of experience in business operations, engineering, program management, and production of integrated solutions. His leadership has been crucial in developing new capabilities and technologies for Karman's programs. Prior to his current role, he held several key leadership positions at Karman, including Regional President, Vice President of Engineering, and Director of Missiles and Space Systems.
Stephanie Sawhill, Chief Growth Officer
Stephanie Sawhill has served as the Chief Growth Officer at Karman since May 2022, bringing over 20 years of experience in the aerospace industry. She is responsible for business development and product growth strategies, and has managed critical programs to expand Karman's integrated system portfolio. Her expertise includes liquid and solid propulsion, advanced materials, energetics, and hypersonic system technologies.
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Key Risks to Karman (KRMN)
- High Valuation: Karman (KRMN) trades at significantly elevated valuation multiples compared to its industry peers, suggesting that substantial future growth and profitability are already factored into its stock price. This high valuation could make the company vulnerable to any operational setbacks, slower-than-anticipated growth, or a market re-evaluation.
- Customer Concentration and Reliance on U.S. Defense Spending: A significant portion of Karman's revenue is derived from contracts within the aerospace and defense sectors, with a heavy dependence on a few large customers and the U.S. Department of Defense. This concentration poses a risk, as the cancellation of a major contract or shifts in government defense spending and political priorities could materially impact the company's financial performance.
- Execution Risk from Acquisitions and Debt: Karman has engaged in recent acquisitions and utilized substantial financing, including a new term loan. While acquisitions aim to expand capabilities, they also introduce integration challenges and heighten near-term execution risks, especially considering concerns about limited board experience and profit margins that have lagged historical levels.
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Clear Emerging Threats for Karman (KRMN)
An emerging threat to Karman, a manufacturer and distributor of wheelchairs and other mobility products, comes from the advancement and increasing adoption of **personal robotic exoskeletons**. Companies such as ReWalk Robotics, Ekso Bionics, and Cyberdyne are developing and commercializing sophisticated wearable robotic devices that allow individuals with paralysis or other mobility impairments to stand and walk. While currently expensive and primarily used in rehabilitation settings, these technologies are continuously improving in functionality, reducing in size, and becoming more accessible. As costs decrease and the technology becomes more widely available and prescribed, these exoskeletons pose a direct threat by offering a fundamentally different and potentially more empowering mobility solution than traditional wheelchairs for a segment of Karman's target market. This shift mirrors historical disruptions where new technologies offered a superior or significantly different user experience, challenging established product categories.
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Karman (KRMN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Broad-Based Growth Across Key End Markets: The company anticipates continued growth across all three of its primary end markets: Hypersonics and Strategic Missile Defense, Space and Launch, and Tactical Missiles and Integrated Defense Systems. For example, revenue from Hypersonics and Strategic Missile Defense increased by 36% year-over-year to $37 million, while Space and Launch jumped 47% to $41 million, and Tactical Missiles and Integrated Defense Systems grew from $31 million to $44 million in Q3 2025.
- Expanding Funded Backlog: Karman consistently reports a growing funded backlog, which provides substantial visibility into future revenue streams. The funded backlog reached an all-time high of $758 million at the end of Q3 2025, offering 100% visibility to the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance and establishing a strong foundation for 2026.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company actively pursues strategic acquisitions to enhance its capabilities and expand its presence in new and existing markets. The acquisition of Five Axis Industries, for instance, is expected to broaden Karman's capabilities, particularly in the commercial space industry.
- Strong Market Demand and Expanding Defense Budgets: Karman operates within the aerospace and defense sector, benefiting from increasing global defense budgets and robust demand for missile technologies, hypersonics, and commercial space applications. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on significant opportunities in areas like the Golden Dome initiative, unmanned systems, hypersonics, and missiles and munitions.
- Sustained Competitive Advantage Through Technological Innovation: Karman's focus on technological innovation and its strategic position as a merchant supplier to prime contractors, often securing sole-source or single-source contracts, provides a strong competitive edge. This enables the company to offer cutting-edge solutions and maintain its role as a key player in the defense and space industries.
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Share Issuance
- In February 2025, Karman Holdings Inc. completed its initial public offering (IPO), selling 8,421,053 shares of common stock at $22.00 per share, generating approximately $185.3 million in proceeds for the company.
Outbound Investments
- In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, Karman acquired MTI and ISP to enhance its design and manufacturing capabilities.
- During the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company acquired Five Axis Industries.
Capital Expenditures
- In the most recent 12-month period, capital expenditures amounted to approximately -$19.64 million.
- Karman invested in and opened a new 30,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Decatur, Alabama, in April 2025, primarily to expand capacity for a new customer.
- The company's capital allocation has involved significant capital investment to scale up operations, which is reflected in a return on invested capital of 4.27% as of September 15, 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 428 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50 |
| FCF LTM | -43 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8 |
| CFO LTM | -23 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 37.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -5.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 21.3 |
| P/EBIT | 53.7 |
| P/E | -6.9 |
| P/CFO | -13.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -10.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $103.80 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/13/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $66.92 | $66.93 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 55.1% | 55.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 68.4% | 61.5% |
| Downside Capture | 319.16 | 108.37 |
| Upside Capture | 419.64 | 225.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.81 | 3.67 | 3.47 | 2.13 | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| Up Beta | 2.14 | 5.15 | 3.83 | 2.34 | -0.05 | -0.51 |
| Down Beta | 2.03 | 1.32 | 2.85 | 1.98 | -0.36 | 0.55 |
| Up Capture | 793% | 964% | 556% | 431% | 437% | 51% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 25 | 34 | 73 | 140 | 140 |
| Down Capture | -2% | 229% | 273% | 131% | 103% | 66% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 52 | 98 | 98 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRMN | 247.1% | 61.6% | 2.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 21.4% | 19.0% | 0.89 | 45.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.2% | 0.65 | 43.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 76.5% | 23.4% | 2.38 | 19.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.1% | 15.9% | 0.48 | 19.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 16.5% | 0.14 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 39.9% | -0.43 | 26.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRMN | 28.2% | 61.6% | 2.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.2% | 17.2% | 0.71 | 45.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.1% | 0.65 | 43.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 16.5% | 1.03 | 19.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.2% | 18.8% | 0.53 | 19.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 21.1% | 57.5% | 0.56 | 26.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRMN | 13.2% | 61.6% | 2.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.0% | 19.8% | 0.67 | 45.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 43.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.6% | 15.3% | 0.85 | 19.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 19.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.8% | 0.25 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 71.5% | 66.4% | 1.11 | 26.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -5.7% | -20.0% | -15.0% |
| 7/21/2025 | -7.6% | -10.5% | -11.3% |
| 4/8/2025 | 9.6% | 22.8% | 38.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 22.8% | 38.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -15.3% | -13.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 22.8% | 38.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -20.0% | -15.0% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koblinski, Anthony | Chief Executive Officer | See Footnote | Sell | 12152025 | 69.31 | 75,000 | 5,198,250 | 160,509,900 | Form |
| 2 | Koblinski, Anthony | Chief Executive Officer | See Footnote | Sell | 12082025 | 66.51 | 75,000 | 4,988,250 | 159,013,837 | Form |
| 3 | Koblinski, Anthony | Chief Executive Officer | See Footnote | Sell | 12012025 | 67.40 | 75,000 | 5,055,000 | 166,196,672 | Form |
| 4 | Koblinski, Anthony | Chief Executive Officer | See Footnote. | Sell | 11242025 | 58.48 | 75,000 | 4,386,000 | 148,587,504 | Form |
| 5 | Willis, Michael | Chief Financial Officer | See Footnote | Sell | 11182025 | 58.63 | 115,000 | 6,742,887 | 50,408,006 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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