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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 143x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 843x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Advanced Air Mobility.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%
2  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 83%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
4  Key risks
KRMN key risks include [1] an elevated valuation compared to peers, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Advanced Air Mobility.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 143x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 843x
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 83%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
6 Key risks
KRMN key risks include [1] an elevated valuation compared to peers, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KRMN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Karman (KRMN) experienced notable movements between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, primarily influenced by strong financial results, strategic acquisitions, and analyst ratings. Here are five key points explaining the stock's performance: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results:** Karman Holdings Inc. reported record third-quarter fiscal year 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025. The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of $121.8 million, surpassing estimates and marking a 41.7% increase year-over-year. Net income also saw a significant increase of 78.1% to $7.6 million. These strong results reflected the company's ability to capitalize on growing demand in the aerospace and defense sector.

**2. Increased Full-Year 2025 Revenue Guidance:** Following the strong Q3 performance, Karman Holdings Inc. raised and narrowed its full fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance to between $461 million and $463 million, up from previous expectations. This upward revision signaled confidence in its business model and market focus, supported by robust demand signals.

**3. Acquisition of Five Axis Industries Inc.:** On October 30, 2025, Karman Space & Defense acquired Five Axis Industries Inc., a leading supplier of advanced engine subsystems for major commercial space programs. This acquisition was immediately accretive to revenue, Adjusted EBITDA margin, and cash flow, enhancing Karman's capabilities in the commercial space sector.

**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets:** Analysts maintained a generally positive outlook on Karman's stock during this period. As of December 2025, the consensus among analysts was a "Buy" rating, with an average twelve-month price target of approximately $80.50, representing a significant potential upside from the then-current price. This positive sentiment was reinforced by several upgrades from analysts in the preceding 90 days.

**5. Secondary Equity Offering and Debt Refinancing:** In July 2025, Karman Space & Defense announced the pricing of an upsized public offering of 21,000,000 shares of its common stock, with existing stockholders selling the shares. This non-dilutive secondary equity offering, completed by November 6, 2025, reflected confidence in the business model and marked the effective exit of its private equity sponsor. Additionally, the company refinanced its credit facilities, saving over $8 million in annual interest, and upsized its Term Loan B to $505 million on October 24, 2025, to fund the Five Axis acquisition and repay its revolving credit facility.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KRMN Return
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KRMN Win Rate90% 
Peers Win Rate46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KRMN Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

KRMN has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven312 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,463 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Karman (KRMN)

Better Bets than Karman (KRMN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KRMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Karman

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KRMNFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameKarman Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Price64.9418.5350.5427.972.623.1623.25
Mkt Cap8.61.71.8--0.11.8
Rev LTM428111831-442111
Op Inc LTM66-25250--9-4-4
FCF LTM-43-20151--9--26
FCF 3Y Avg--8--11--1
CFO LTM-23-17874--9--16
CFO 3Y Avg--22--10-6

Growth & Margins

KRMNFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameKarman Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Rev Chg LTM29.4%-6.2%-166.4%-29.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--19.5%-94.3%-56.9%
Rev Chg Q41.7%37.6%3.8%-330.2%-39.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.1%8.2%0.9%-35.8%-8.7%
Op Mgn LTM15.5%-226.9%6.0%--209.1%-8.8%-8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--2.2%--699.5%--348.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-10.4%1.7%-86.7%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-5.4%-160.0%8.9%--212.3%--82.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--2.5%--716.7%--357.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-10.0%-181.0%6.1%--216.3%--95.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--0.8%--777.8%--388.5%

Valuation

KRMNFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameKarman Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
Mkt Cap8.61.71.8--0.11.8
P/S22.315.61.9--3.19.3
P/EBIT142.7-6.832.3---32.3
P/E842.8-5.1-523.2---47.1-26.1
P/CFO-410.6-9.822.0----9.8
Total Yield0.1%-19.6%-0.2%---2.1%-1.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg---0.5%----0.5%
D/E0.10.00.2---0.1
Net D/E0.0-0.50.2---0.0

Returns

KRMNFLYATROBETADFSCPEWMedian
NameKarman Firefly .AstronicsBETA Tec.DEFSEC T.GrabAGun. 
1M Rtn11.4%-4.9%0.8%-0.1%-15.8%-16.0%-2.5%
3M Rtn1.3%-57.3%26.1%--21.8%-43.1%-21.8%
6M Rtn41.2%-50.8%---46.0%
12M Rtn--208.9%---208.9%
3Y Rtn--422.6%---422.6%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%-5.6%0.1%-0.8%-16.5%-16.7%-3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-2.1%-60.4%19.2%--25.4%-46.4%-25.4%
6M Excs Rtn28.8%-38.4%---33.6%
12M Excs Rtn--198.8%---198.8%
3Y Excs Rtn--345.2%---345.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Space and defense281226
Total281226


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Space and defense4 
Total4 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,212,551
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202532.9%
Average Daily Volume1,741,459
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.57
Basic Shares Quantity132,322,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-5.7%-20.0%-15.0%
7/21/2025-7.6%-10.5%-11.3%
4/8/20259.6%22.8%38.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111
# Negative222
Median Positive9.6%22.8%38.8%
Median Negative-6.7%-15.3%-13.1%
Max Positive9.6%22.8%38.8%
Max Negative-7.6%-20.0%-15.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024410202510-K 12/31/2024
123120232132025424B4 12/31/2023

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Koblinski AnthonyChief Executive Officer11242025Sell58.4875,0004,386,000148,587,504Form
1Willis MichaelChief Financial Officer11182025Sell58.63115,0006,742,88750,408,006Form
2Beaudoin JonathanChief Operating Officer11142025Sell63.6974,0004,712,87542,470,710Form
3Sawhill StephanieChief Growth Officer11142025Sell63.9362,0003,963,62332,280,447Form
4Raduenz Brian 11132025Sell68.0090,0006,120,13517,279,521Form