Coca-Cola (KO)
Market Price (5/29/2026): $80.44 | Market Cap: $346.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Coca-Cola (KO)
Market Price (5/29/2026): $80.44Market Cap: $346.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x Key risksKO key risks include [1] structural pressure on its core sugary beverage sales from global health trends and government regulation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Key risksKO key risks include [1] structural pressure on its core sugary beverage sales from global health trends and government regulation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Coca-Cola (KO) stock has gained about 10% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Outlook.
Coca-Cola reported robust first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026, significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations, which acted as a major catalyst for the stock's appreciation. The company's comparable earnings per share (EPS) grew 18% to $0.86, outperforming the consensus estimate of $0.81 by over 6%. Net revenues increased by 12% to $12.5 billion, while organic revenues (non-GAAP) rose by 10%, surpassing the anticipated $12.27 billion. Furthermore, Coca-Cola raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS growth guidance to a range of 8% to 9%, reflecting management's confidence in continued strong performance. Following this announcement, Coca-Cola's stock saw an immediate surge of 3.99% in premarket trading, indicating a 5.18% increase to $78.45.
2. Robust Organic Revenue Growth Driven by Volume and Pricing.
The company demonstrated strong operational momentum, contributing to its gains. Global unit case volume expanded by 3%, with notable growth in key markets such as China, the United States, and India. This volume increase, coupled with a 2% growth in price/mix, resulted in a 10% increase in organic revenues. Coca-Cola also successfully gained value share in the total non-alcoholic ready-to-drink (NARTD) beverage category, showcasing its ability to maintain and grow market presence through effective pricing strategies and sustained consumer demand.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.2% change in KO stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 74.30 | 80.41 | 8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,663 | 49,284 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 27.8% | 1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.5 | 25.2 | 2.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,303 | 4,302 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KO | 8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.3% | 1.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.7% | 72.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.3% change in KO stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.95 | 80.41 | 18.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,663 | 49,284 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 27.8% | 1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.4 | 25.2 | 12.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,303 | 4,302 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KO | 18.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | -5.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 12.2% | 70.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.0% change in KO stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.51 | 80.41 | 14.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,061 | 49,284 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.6% | 27.8% | 23.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.6 | 25.2 | -11.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,306 | 4,302 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KO | 14.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 37.6% | -8.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.0% | 66.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.1% change in KO stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.66 | 80.41 | 37.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,493 | 49,284 | 13.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.7% | 27.8% | 22.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.7 | 25.2 | -1.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,326 | 4,302 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KO | 37.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.5% | 8.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.3% | 72.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KO Return | 11% | 11% | -4% | 9% | 16% | 18% | 74% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 0% | 2% | -6% | 1% | 14% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KO Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 47% | 52% | 45% | 50% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KO Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -17% | -15% | -10% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -25% | -20% | -21% | -25% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PEP, KDP, MNST, SBUX, FIZZ. See KO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -11.0% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.3% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 200 days | 1 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Coca-Cola's stock fell -1.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 1.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | KO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Coca-Cola's stock fell -1.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 1.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Coca-Cola (KO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Coca-Cola (KO):
- The Procter & Gamble of drinks.
- The McDonald's of beverages.
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- Sparkling Soft Drinks: A diverse portfolio of carbonated beverages, including colas, lemon-lime, and fruit-flavored sodas.
- Waters & Sports Drinks: A variety of still, sparkling, enhanced waters, and hydration beverages for athletes.
- Juice, Dairy & Plant-Based Beverages: Offerings encompass fruit juices, milk-based products, and plant-derived drinks.
- Teas & Coffees: Includes ready-to-drink teas and coffees, alongside coffee shop chains.
- Energy Drinks: Beverages specifically formulated to provide an energy boost.
- Beverage Concentrates & Syrups: Ingredients supplied to independent bottling partners and fountain retailers for their final beverage products.
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Major Customers of The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
The Coca-Cola Company primarily sells its products, concentrates, and syrups to other companies, which then bottle, distribute, or sell them to end consumers. Its major customers, which include independent bottling partners, large restaurant chains, and major retailers, are:
- Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (NASDAQ: CCEP)
- Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: KOF)
- Coca-Cola HBC AG (NYSE: CCH)
- McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
- Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT)
- Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) - (Note: Coca-Cola also has a distribution partnership with Starbucks for its ready-to-drink coffee products)
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- Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP)
- Coca-Cola Femsa, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF)
- Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE)
- Ball Corporation (BLL)
- Amcor plc (AMCR)
- International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF)
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James Quincey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
James Quincey joined The Coca-Cola Company in 1996, holding numerous leadership roles worldwide before becoming CEO in 2017 and Chairman in 2019. Before his time at Coca-Cola, he was a partner in strategy consulting at The Kalchas Group, a spin-off of Bain & Company and McKinsey. He played a key role in the acquisition of Jugos del Valle while serving as President of Coca-Cola's Mexico division from 2005 to 2008. Quincey was also instrumental in the creation of Coca-Cola European Partners and led the acquisition of innocent juice in 2009.
John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer
John Murphy began his career with Coca-Cola in 1988 and has held various general management, finance, and strategic planning roles globally. He was appointed CFO in 2019 and President in 2022. Prior to joining Coca-Cola, Murphy worked for four years as an auditor for Price Waterhouse in Dublin, Ireland. His past leadership roles within Coca-Cola include serving as president of the Asia Pacific group, the South Latin business unit, and the Latin Center business unit.
Manuel Arroyo, EVP, Chief Marketing and Customer Commercial Officer
Manuel Arroyo started his career with The Coca-Cola Company in 1995, progressing through various marketing and general management positions across Europe, the USA, Asia, and Mexico. From 2015 to 2016, he held the position of CEO of Deoleo, a publicly traded global leader in branded olive oil, which includes the Bertolli brand. He also spearheaded structural refranchising efforts in several Asian markets as President of the ASEAN business unit. Before joining Coca-Cola, Arroyo worked in marketing at S.C. Johnson & Son and in the corporate office staff of the Chairman & CEO at Banco Santander.
Lisa Chang, EVP and Global Chief People Officer
Lisa Chang oversees Coca-Cola's global talent and people strategies, culture, and diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, a role she has held since 2019. Before joining Coca-Cola, Chang served as Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer for AMB Group, LLC, a privately held sports and entertainment conglomerate in Atlanta. Her prior experience includes senior HR leadership positions at Equifax, Turner Broadcasting System Inc., and The Weather Channel Companies.
Monica Howard Douglas, EVP and Global General Counsel
Monica Howard Douglas is responsible for The Coca-Cola Company's global legal function, reporting to the Chairman & CEO, a position she assumed in April 2021. She joined Coca-Cola in 2004 as senior managing counsel and has held roles of increasing responsibility, including legal director for Coca-Cola Southern and East Africa. Prior to her tenure at Coca-Cola, Douglas was an attorney with Equifax and an associate at Troutman Sanders LLP, now known as Troutman Pepper LLP.
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The Coca-Cola Company (KO) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance. * Changing Consumer Preferences and Regulatory Scrutiny: A significant long-term risk for Coca-Cola stems from evolving consumer preferences shifting towards healthier beverages and away from sugary drinks. This trend is amplified by increasing government regulation, including the introduction of sugar taxes in many countries, as well as potential restrictions on advertising and portion sizes. These regulations can lead to higher prices, reduced affordability, and ultimately weigh on sales volumes. * Foreign Exchange Fluctuations and Macroeconomic Volatility: As a global company operating in over 200 countries, Coca-Cola is highly exposed to foreign exchange rate volatility. A strong U.S. dollar, for instance, can negatively impact the value of international sales when translated back into dollars, creating a significant drag on comparable net revenues and earnings per share. Additionally, broader macroeconomic instability, including high inflation and geopolitical events, can disrupt supply chains and impact consumer spending. * Operational Dependence on Bottling Partners and Supply Chain Challenges: While Coca-Cola's asset-light model, relying on independent bottling partners for manufacturing and distribution, is a strength, it also introduces operational risks. When these bottlers encounter issues such as inflation, labor shortages, or supply chain disruptions, it can affect product availability and service levels. The company also faces pressure from rising input costs for key materials like aluminum and sugar, which can squeeze margins if not effectively offset by pricing strategies.AI Analysis | Feedback
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The addressable markets for Coca-Cola's main products and services are substantial across various beverage categories and regions.Sparkling Soft Drinks (Carbonated Soft Drinks - CSDs)
- Global: The global carbonated beverages market was valued at approximately USD 496.46 billion in 2024.
- U.S.: The U.S. carbonated soft drink market size was estimated at USD 55.2 billion in 2024.
Sports Drinks
- Global: The global sports drink market size was valued at USD 26.42 billion in 2024.
- U.S.: The U.S. sports drink market size was estimated at USD 12.12 billion in 2024.
Juice Beverages
- Global (Overall Juices Market): The global juices market was approximately USD 212.4 billion in 2024.
- Global (100% Juice): The global 100% juice market generated a revenue of USD 32.32 billion in 2024.
- U.S. (Fruit Juice): The United States fruit juice market size was valued at USD 57.6 billion in 2025.
- U.S. (100% Juice): The U.S. 100% juice market generated a revenue of USD 9.90 billion in 2024.
Dairy Beverages
- Global: The global dairy drinks market size was valued at USD 82.89 billion in 2024.
- U.S.: The U.S. dairy beverages market reached approximately USD 58.9 billion in 2024.
Plant-Based Beverages
- Global: The global plant-based beverages market size was estimated at USD 33.83 billion in 2024.
- North America: The North America plant-based beverages market size was valued at USD 8.02 billion in 2024, with the U.S. expected to be a major contributor to regional revenue.
Tea
- Global: The global tea market size was estimated at USD 28.32 billion in 2024.
- U.S. (Overall Tea Market): The U.S. tea market generated a revenue of USD 3.39 billion in 2025.
- U.S. (Ready-to-Drink Tea): The U.S. ready-to-drink tea market size is estimated at USD 13.14 billion in 2025.
Coffee
- Global: The global coffee market size was valued at approximately USD 235.75 billion in 2024.
- U.S.: The United States coffee market size was valued at approximately USD 101.67 billion in 2024.
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The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic pricing, portfolio innovation, geographic expansion, digital transformation, and optimization of its bottling system.
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Coca-Cola:
- Strategic Pricing and Revenue Growth Management (RGM) Initiatives: Coca-Cola consistently emphasizes its ability to implement pricing actions and optimize its product and package mix to drive organic revenue growth. This includes offering a total beverage portfolio in various packages and price points to capture value and adapt to market conditions. The company's revenue growth management capabilities are considered a distinct advantage for delivering volume and transaction growth, even amid inflationary pressures.
- Innovation and Expansion of the Total Beverage Portfolio: The company is focused on shaping a portfolio of "loved brands" and driving innovation beyond new flavors to include new products, packages, and equipment. This strategy includes the continued growth of recently acquired brands like fairlife (dairy), BODYARMOR (sports drinks), and Costa (coffee), as well as diversification into new categories such as alcohol ready-to-drink beverages in various markets. Innovation contributed significantly to gross profit growth in 2023, with success rates nearly tripling compared to 2019 levels.
- Geographic Expansion and Increased Market Penetration: Coca-Cola identifies significant opportunities in developing and emerging markets, which comprise approximately 80% of the global population and where a large portion of people do not yet consume commercial beverages. Strategic initiatives in these regions, such as India, Africa, and Southeast Asia, involve expanding cold-drink placements and offering affordable single-serve packs to increase penetration and recruit new consumers.
- Digital Transformation and Modernized Marketing: Coca-Cola is actively transforming its marketing and innovation agenda by adopting a digital-first approach, with digital representing approximately 65% of its total media spend in 2024, up from less than 30% in 2019. This involves leveraging emerging technologies like AI for consumer engagement, optimizing commercial execution through analytics and IoT, and using digital platforms to reach more customers.
- Optimization of the Bottling System and Supply Chain: The company continues to focus on optimizing its vast global ecosystem, which includes working closely with its network of independent bottling partners. Investments are being made in route-to-market scale, capacity increases, and digital capabilities to enhance operational efficiency and accelerate market execution. The ongoing process of refranchising company-owned bottling operations is also expected to have a positive impact on margins and the overall return profile of the business.
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Share Repurchases
- The Coca-Cola Company's share repurchases for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged approximately $1.272 billion annually.
- Share repurchases peaked in December 2023 at $2.289 billion.
- In 2025, the company purchased $0.7 billion of its shares.
- As of February 10, 2026, the company had approximately $5.2 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- In 2025, Coca-Cola issued $0.3 billion of shares in connection with the exercise of stock options by employees.
- The number of shares outstanding has seen slight declines, indicating that share repurchases generally outpaced issuances.
Outbound Investments
- Coca-Cola's net acquisitions/divestitures for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, were $5.334 billion.
- Annual net acquisitions/divestitures for 2024 were $3.17 billion.
- The company's most recent acquisition was Billson, a brand of beers & ciders, in December 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $1.776 billion.
- Capital expenditures peaked in December 2025 at $2.112 billion and increased consistently from $1.367 billion in 2021.
- The company expects approximately $2.2 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, focused on supporting business operations, innovation, and its bottling system.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Coca-Cola Stock Capital Return Hits $47 Bil | 05/27/2026 | |
| Is KO Stock Setup For A Rerating? | 05/16/2026 | |
| Pay Less, Grow More: CELH, COKE Beat Coca-Cola Stock | 05/08/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Coca-Cola Stock | 04/28/2026 | |
| Coca-Cola Earnings Notes | 04/25/2026 | |
| How Does Coca-Cola Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 01/24/2026 | |
| What Can Trigger Coca-Cola Stock's Slide? | 12/27/2025 | |
| How Low Can Coca-Cola Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| KO Stock: The Math Behind The Upside | 05/16/2026 | |
| Pay Less, Gain More: COKE Tops Coca-Cola Stock | 05/08/2026 | |
| How Will Coca-Cola Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 04/25/2026 | |
| Pay Less, Gain More: KDP Tops Coca-Cola Stock | 04/07/2026 | |
| KDP Looks Smarter Buy Than Coca-Cola Stock | 03/27/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to KO.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04102026 | ELF | e.l.f. Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -6.2% |
| 04022026 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.3% |
| 04022026 | COKE | Coca-Cola Consolidated | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.5% | 5.5% | -5.2% |
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -8.6% |
| 03272026 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
| 11302022 | KO | Coca-Cola | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.5% | -5.2% | -15.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 100.4 |
| Rev LTM | 27,708 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,588 |
| FCF LTM | 2,387 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,448 |
| CFO LTM | 3,271 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,730 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 100.4 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.5 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 24.1 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 18,869 | 13,184 | 11,473 | ||
| Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) | 10,958 | 6,564 | 5,534 | ||
| Latin America | 6,471 | 4,143 | 3,499 | ||
| Bottling Investments | 6,223 | 7,194 | 6,258 | ||
| Asia Pacific | 5,594 | 4,682 | 4,213 | ||
| Corporate | 110 | 83 | 46 | ||
| Eliminations | -1,164 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Global Ventures | 2,805 | 1,991 | |||
| Total | 47,061 | 38,655 | 33,014 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 4,556 | 3,331 | 2,471 | ||
| Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) | 4,255 | 3,735 | 3,313 | ||
| Latin America | 3,792 | 2,534 | 2,116 | ||
| Asia Pacific | 2,156 | 2,325 | 2,133 | ||
| Bottling Investments | 496 | 473 | 308 | ||
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Corporate | -5,263 | -2,383 | -1,221 | ||
| Global Ventures | 293 | -123 | |||
| Total | 9,992 | 10,308 | 8,997 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $80.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 345.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $77.64 | $72.33 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 3.6% | 11.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.2% | 15.8% |
| Downside Capture | -21.58 | -44.48 |
| Upside Capture | -11.85 | -12.76 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.3% | -6.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.08 | -0.04 | -0.09 | 0.09 |
| Up Beta | 0.39 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Down Beta | -0.39 | 0.21 | 0.20 | -0.07 | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| Up Capture | -7% | -8% | 0% | -2% | -7% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 33 | 62 | 121 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 8% | 41% | -21% | -42% | -41% | 2% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 25 | 31 | 63 | 130 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 15.3% | 15.8% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.4% | 12.5% | 0.14 | 66.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.2% | 11.8% | 1.86 | -6.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.7% | 26.7% | 1.12 | -3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.2% | 18.8% | 1.66 | -15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.0% | 0.70 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.9% | 41.6% | -0.81 | -16.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 11.3% | 16.0% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.3% | 13.2% | 0.26 | 78.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 31.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.0% | 0.84 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.4% | 0.43 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 44.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.8% | 54.7% | 0.43 | 5.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 9.5% | 18.1% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 14.7% | 0.40 | 78.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 51.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.1% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 15.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 58.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.5% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 5.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreUpdated on 5292026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 8.2% |
| 2/10/2026 | -1.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 10/21/2025 | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.6% | -2.8% | 0.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 0.8% | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.1% | -5.6% | -9.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.3% | 3.2% | 7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -0.6% | -1.2% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% |
| Max Negative | -2.1% | -5.6% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Comparable Currency Neutral EPS Growth (excl. A&D) | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 18.2% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Comparable EPS Growth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 7.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 12.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Cash Flow from Operations | 14.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 14.40 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | -18.2% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Comparable Currency Neutral EPS excluding acquisitions and divestitures growth | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | -31.2% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 8.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Comparable EPS growth | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 150.0% | 4.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 12.20 Bil | 24.5% | Raised | Guidance: 9.80 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | 14.40 Bil | 20.0% | Raised | Guidance: 12.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.20 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Underlying effective tax rate | 20.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 20.7% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreUpdated on 5192026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quan, Nancy | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 80.93 | 31,625 | 2,559,519 | 18,074,856 | Form |
| 2 | Quincey, James | Chairman | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 78.90 | 200,000 | 15,780,900 | 6,166,781 | Form |
| 3 | Douglas, Monica Howard | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 77.37 | 23,880 | 1,847,686 | 1,371,451 | Form |
| 4 | Quan, Nancy | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 79.50 | 23,556 | 1,872,747 | 17,755,159 | Form |
| 5 | Quincey, James | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 79.14 | 250,688 | 19,839,138 | 22,012,842 | Form |
KO Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is well below 1.0x, indicating an unfavorable risk/reward profile. The core issue is that in a weak consumer environment (Sector Trend = 'WEAK'), the company's contested position in the value segment ('Moat' = 'CONTESTED') creates a high probability (60%) that the primary risk—consumer trade-down—will manifest. The potential upside from continued execution does not sufficiently compensate for the risk of multiple compression if volume and pricing power falter.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowThe business model is characterized by high margins, significant pricing power, stable but low single-digit volume growth, and a focus on capital returns (dividends/buybacks), aligning perfectly with the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on Coca-Cola's unparalleled ability to leverage its brand equity and asset-light concentrate model to consistently drive price/mix growth ahead of inflation, thereby protecting and expanding its high operating margins irrespective of flat to low-single-digit volume growth.
- Organic revenue growth is consistently price-led; Q4 2024 organic revenue growth of 14% was driven by a 9% increase in price/mix.
- The concentrate business model results in a significant operating margin advantage over peers; KO's operating margin was 32.0% in Q3 2025, more than double PepsiCo's 14.9%.
- Company guidance for FY2025 projects continued mid-single-digit organic revenue growth (5-6%), primarily driven by this pricing strategy.
- Successfully rebounded unit case volume to +2% in Q4 2024 from -1% in Q3, demonstrating brand resilience despite price hikes.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is an acceleration of consumer trade-down to lower-priced private label alternatives, particularly in North America, as persistent inflation erodes real household income. This could neutralize Coca-Cola's primary growth driver (pricing power) and lead to market share loss in the critical at-home consumption segment.
- A February 2026 Ibotta report shows 62% of shoppers now prioritize price over brand loyalty.
- The same report indicates the belief that name brands offer better quality dropped from 44% to 38% in the past year.
- Coca-Cola is explicitly losing the 'Value-Seeking Family' customer segment to PepsiCo, which employs a more aggressive pricing strategy.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Unit Case Volume Growth (Global & North America) | Must remain positive (>0%) | This is the leading indicator of brand health and elasticity. While growth is price-driven, a slip into negative volume would signal that pricing power has hit its ceiling. |
| Price/Mix Growth | >5% | This is the primary driver of the alpha thesis. It must continue to outpace input cost inflation to protect and grow margins. A significant deceleration would break the thesis. |
| Operating Margin | Stable above 30% | The high operating margin is the core justification for KO's premium valuation. Any compression would signal a failure to manage costs or a breakdown in pricing power, putting the valuation at risk. |
Pricing Power vs. Consumer Elasticity
BULL VIEW
Bulls bet KO's pricing power is durable, allowing it to pass on costs and drive margin expansion, evidenced by recent volume growth acceleration (+2%) despite price hikes.
CORE TENSION
Can Coca-Cola's brand equity sustain premium pricing and drive revenue growth, or will persistent inflation and new health trends (GLP-1 drugs) finally cause consumer trade-downs and volume declines?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The rebound in unit case volume to +2% in Q4 2024, reversing a prior quarter decline and outperforming PepsiCo, shows pricing power is currently winning. However, the risk of consumer trade-down is now rated HIGH.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see peak pricing power. Rising private label preference (62% of shoppers prioritize price) and GLP-1 drug adoption (users cut sugary drinks by 65%) will erode volumes.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 10, 2026 | Q4 & FY2025 Earnings Report & 2026 Guidance Watch: North American case volume growth and FY2026 organic revenue guidance. Commentary on pricing power vs. private label. |
This Quarter / Slow Burn | Peer Earnings Reports (e.g., PEP, MDLZ) Watch: Specific quantification of volume impact from GLP-1 drug adoption or commentary on consumer trade-down trends. |
March 2026 | New CEO & Chief Digital Officer Start Dates Watch: Early announcements or strategic shifts related to digital transformation, marketing efficiency, or supply chain optimization. |
H2 2026 | EU Packaging Regulation (PPWR) Deadline Watch: Announcements regarding rPET sourcing, potential cost increases, or supply chain challenges ahead of 2026 deadlines. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
7/22/2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Delivered Q2 results with strong price/mix growth of +6% demonstrating pricing power, though North American volumes showed some softness due to weakening consumer sentiment. | Muted (-0.59%) $69.05 -> $68.64 |
8/25/2025 | Competitor Strategic Move Details: Primary competitor Keurig Dr Pepper announced a major transformational acquisition of JDE Peet's and a subsequent plan to separate into two independent companies, increasing competitive focus. | Slight -1.71% pullback $69.11 -> $67.92 |
9/29/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Date Announcement Details: Coca-Cola announced it would release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 21. The stock reaction was muted ahead of the actual report. | Flat (0.56%) $65.21 -> $65.57 |
10/21/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Details: Reported strong Q3 results, with organic revenue growing 6% and unit case volume up 1%, beating expectations and contrasting with competitor PepsiCo's volume declines. | Rose significantly by 4.06% $67.96 -> $70.72 |
1/13/2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Date Announcement & CEO Transition Update Details: Company confirmed it will release Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 10. Also confirmed details of its upcoming CEO transition, effective March 31, 2026. | Flat (1.05%) $70.51 -> $71.24 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is Stable (1.45x S&P) and compressing. While sentiment is Neutral due to valid consumer risks, KO has high visibility and a strong moat. This justifies a standard allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
PEP
INDUSTRYOffers diversification into snacks, which may be more resilient to beverage-specific headwinds like sugar taxes. However, it currently shows weaker beverage volume trends than Coca-Cola.
KDP
INDUSTRYStrong position in the at-home coffee market (Keurig) and a challenger portfolio in cold beverages. A planned separation into two companies could unlock value.
Coca-Cola is executing a strategic transformation from a carbonated soft drink powerhouse into a resilient 'Total Beverage Company', leveraging its global distribution to drive growth in water, sports drinks, coffee, and dairy to offset secular shifts in consumer preferences.
Filter all news through the 'Total Beverage Company' diversification thesis; measure success by the growth rate of non-sparkling brands versus the core Trademark Coca-Cola portfolio.
Unit case volume growth >1% in non-sparkling categories (Water, Sports, Coffee, Tea); successful integration and scaling of acquired brands like BODYARMOR or fairlife; market share gains in ready-to-drink coffee or value-added dairy; organic revenue growth guidance exceeding 5%.
Sustained volume declines in the North American sparkling beverage portfolio; significant write-downs on acquired brands (e.g., BODYARMOR impairment charge in Q4 2025); failure to innovate and launch successful new products in growth categories; loss of value share to PepsiCo's Gatorade or Starbucks' ready-to-drink portfolio.
Short-term commodity cost fluctuations (already hedged and embedded in guidance); quarterly foreign currency headwinds (a persistent factor in a global business); minor regional marketing campaigns; executive commentary on general macroeconomic conditions.
Repricing Catalyst
Successfully delivering on its 2026 guidance for 4-5% organic revenue growth and 7-8% comparable EPS growth, which would demonstrate the resilience of its brand portfolio and pricing power amidst global consumer softness, reinforcing its status as a defensive growth staple.
North America
$19.6B TTM (41% of Total) · 60% MarginWhat It Is
Trademark Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta, Dasani, smartwater, vitaminwater, Powerade, BODYARMOR, Minute Maid, fairlife
Who Pays & How
Bottling partners (e.g. Coca-Cola Consolidated) and distributors pay for concentrate and finished goods, leveraging Coca-Cola's powerful brand equity and marketing support to drive consumer sales. The brand is a primary driver of retail foot traffic.
Competition
Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA)
$11.5B TTM (24% of Total) · 60% MarginWhat It Is
Trademark Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, Costa Coffee, regional sparkling and still brands.
Who Pays & How
Large bottling partners like Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) and Coca-Cola HBC pay for concentrate, utilizing a deeply entrenched distribution network to serve a diverse range of developed and emerging markets.
Competition
Latin America
$6.3B TTM (13% of Total) · 60% MarginWhat It Is
Trademark Coca-Cola, regional sparkling brands, juices and dairy products.
Who Pays & How
Major bottlers such as Coca-Cola FEMSA pay for concentrate to serve a large, growing, and brand-loyal consumer base.
Competition
Asia Pacific
$5.6B TTM (12% of Total) · 60% MarginWhat It Is
Trademark Coca-Cola, Thums Up (India), regional tea and water brands.
Who Pays & How
Bottlers like Swire Coca-Cola pay for concentrate to serve a vast and complex region with a mix of developed and high-growth emerging markets.
Competition
Bottling Operations & Investments
$5.7B TTM (10% of Total) · 60% MarginWhat It Is
Finished beverage products; this segment consists of company-owned or controlled bottling operations, including Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA).
Who Pays & How
Retailers and distributors pay for finished beverage products. Coca-Cola operates these entities to ensure strategic alignment and stability in key markets, often with the long-term goal of refranchising.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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