CarMax (KMX)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $53.3 | Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
CarMax (KMX)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $53.3Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -459 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.8% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 242% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.0% Key risksKMX key risks include [1] intensifying online competition where the company struggles with value perception issues and [2] challenges in the operational execution of its omni-channel platform and adaptation to new technology. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -459 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 242% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.0% |
| Key risksKMX key risks include [1] intensifying online competition where the company struggles with value perception issues and [2] challenges in the operational execution of its omni-channel platform and adaptation to new technology. |
Qualitative Assessment
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CarMax (KMX) stock has gained about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. CarMax reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2027 (ended May 31, 2026). The company announced diluted earnings per share of $1.31, significantly surpassing analyst estimates that ranged from $0.94 to $1.01. Net revenues also exceeded expectations, rising 6.2% year-over-year to $8.0 billion. Furthermore, combined retail and wholesale unit sales increased 3.3%, and comparable store used unit sales showed an improved trend, declining only 0.8% compared to a 1.9% decline in the prior quarter.
2. Optimism surrounding new CEO Keith Barr's strategic framework and increased cost efficiency goals. Since assuming the CEO role on March 16, 2026, Keith Barr introduced a four-pillar strategic framework aimed at driving unit and earnings growth. The company increased its target for SG&A (Selling, General, and Administrative) expense reductions to $200 million in exit rate savings by the end of fiscal year 2027, up from a prior goal of $150 million. In fiscal Q1 2027, SG&A expenses already decreased by 3.7% or $24.5 million, demonstrating initial progress toward these cost-saving initiatives.
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CarMax (KMX) stock has gained about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. CarMax reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2027 (ended May 31, 2026). The company announced diluted earnings per share of $1.31, significantly surpassing analyst estimates that ranged from $0.94 to $1.01. Net revenues also exceeded expectations, rising 6.2% year-over-year to $8.0 billion. Furthermore, combined retail and wholesale unit sales increased 3.3%, and comparable store used unit sales showed an improved trend, declining only 0.8% compared to a 1.9% decline in the prior quarter.
2. Optimism surrounding new CEO Keith Barr's strategic framework and increased cost efficiency goals. Since assuming the CEO role on March 16, 2026, Keith Barr introduced a four-pillar strategic framework aimed at driving unit and earnings growth. The company increased its target for SG&A (Selling, General, and Administrative) expense reductions to $200 million in exit rate savings by the end of fiscal year 2027, up from a prior goal of $150 million. In fiscal Q1 2027, SG&A expenses already decreased by 3.7% or $24.5 million, demonstrating initial progress toward these cost-saving initiatives.
3. Favorable macroeconomic trends in the used car market supported demand. The broader used vehicle market experienced steady price increases in calendar Q1 2026, driven by robust demand and tight supply. High prices for new vehicles continue to prompt budget-conscious consumers to seek more affordable used car options, and factors such as tax refund season have further boosted demand for pre-owned vehicles. This underlying market strength contributed to a supportive environment for CarMax's performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.3% change in KMX stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 124.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.17 | 53.66 | 24.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,938 | 25,881 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 1.0% | -45.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 30.8 | 124.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 142 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KMX | 24.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.5% | 33.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.8% change in KMX stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 178.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.66 | 53.66 | 38.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,368 | 25,881 | -1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.0% | 1.0% | -51.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.1 | 30.8 | 178.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 142 | 5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KMX | 38.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 32.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.8% change in KMX stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.46 | 53.66 | -16.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,353 | 25,881 | -1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.9% | 1.0% | -49.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.8 | 30.8 | 55.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 154 | 142 | 8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KMX | -16.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 32.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.5% | 39.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.7% change in KMX stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.21 | 53.66 | -25.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,685 | 25,881 | -12.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 1.0% | -41.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.5 | 30.8 | 30.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 158 | 142 | 11.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KMX | -25.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 42.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.4% | 45.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KMX Return | 38% | -53% | 26% | 7% | -53% | 23% | -50% |
| Peers Return | 44% | -7% | 48% | 13% | 2% | -10% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KMX Win Rate | 75% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 50% | 60% | 50% | 50% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KMX Max Drawdown | -18% | -57% | -30% | -23% | -65% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -31% | -24% | -19% | -25% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LAD, AN, PAG, GPI, ABG. See KMX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KMX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 15 days |
In The Past
CarMax's stock fell -4.4% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 4.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | KMX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 207.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
CarMax's stock fell -4.4% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 4.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CarMax (KMX)
CarMax, Inc. (KMX) operates as a prominent retailer of used vehicles across the United States. The company's business model is primarily structured around two core segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which handles the direct sale of vehicles and associated services, and CarMax Auto Finance, dedicated to providing financing solutions for its customers.
Through its Sales Operations, CarMax offers a wide selection of used cars, including domestic, imported, luxury, hybrid, and electric models. Beyond vehicle sales, this segment also provides extended protection plans to retail customers at the time of purchase, alongside reconditioning and vehicle repair services. Additionally, older, higher-mileage vehicles are sold through wholesale auctions.
The CarMax Auto Finance segment is crucial for facilitating vehicle purchases, offering financing alternatives to retail customers across various credit spectrums. This is achieved through its own financing arm and strategic arrangements with other financial institutions. Ultimately, CarMax serves a broad market of U.S. consumers seeking diverse used vehicle options and accessible financing, complemented by services for wholesale buyers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for CarMax (KMX):
- Best Buy for used cars
- Home Depot for used cars
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Used Vehicle Sales: Retails a diverse selection of used vehicles to customers.
- Wholesale Vehicle Sales: Sells older, high-mileage vehicles through wholesale auctions.
- Auto Financing: Offers financing options for retail customers purchasing vehicles.
- Extended Protection Plans: Provides optional service plans for vehicles sold to customers.
- Vehicle Reconditioning and Repair Services: Delivers reconditioning and repair services for vehicles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CarMax (KMX) primarily sells to individuals, not other companies. Based on the company description, here are up to three categories of customers it serves:
- Everyday Car Buyers: Individuals and households seeking to purchase a used vehicle, valuing CarMax's extensive inventory of domestic, imported, luxury, hybrid, and electric vehicles, as well as its transparent, no-haggle pricing model.
- Financially-Assisted Buyers: Customers who require financing solutions to acquire a vehicle. CarMax caters to a broad credit spectrum through its CarMax Auto Finance division and partnerships with various financial institutions, making vehicle ownership accessible to a wide range of individuals.
- Value-Added Service Seekers: Individuals who not only purchase a vehicle but also opt for additional protection and peace of mind. This category includes customers who choose to purchase extended protection plans (EPPs) offered at the time of sale, alongside their vehicle purchase.
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Keith Barr President and Chief Executive Officer
Keith Barr was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of CarMax, effective March 16, 2026. Prior to joining CarMax, Mr. Barr served as the Chief Executive Officer of InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) from July 2017 to July 2023. At IHG, he was responsible for leading global brand, loyalty, sales, and marketing functions, and oversaw a digital transformation and significant growth. Before becoming CEO, he served as Chief Commercial Officer for four years and as CEO of IHG's Greater China business for four years. Earlier in his career, he held senior positions at Bristol Hotels and Resorts, which was acquired by IHG in 2000. Mr. Barr is also a non-executive director of Yum! Brands.
Enrique Mayor-Mora Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
As Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Enrique Mayor-Mora is responsible for CarMax's financial planning, accounting, treasury, internal audit, investor relations, tax, real estate, procurement, and facilities functions. He played a key role in CarMax's capital allocation strategy, including the $404 million acquisition of Edmunds in June 2021. He also led the company's store expansion strategy since 2012 and expanded funding programs for CarMax Auto Finance. Prior to joining CarMax in 2011, Mr. Mayor-Mora served as Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations at Denny's Corporation from 2005 to 2011, where he designed and advanced a re-franchising program that led to the sale of over 300 franchise units. He also held various financial positions of increasing responsibility at Gap, Inc. from 2001 to 2005, and previously worked at Deloitte Consulting Group.
Joe Wilson Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Joe Wilson serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, overseeing field strategy and store execution for CarMax's more than 230 stores nationwide, auction business, customer experience centers, and logistics services. He leads the company's pricing and inventory strategies and has been instrumental in improving the efficiency of sourcing and managing CarMax's inventory over the past two decades. Mr. Wilson began his career at CarMax in 1995 as a buyer-in-training and has since held a variety of leadership roles, including senior vice president of store strategy and logistics, and vice president of merchandising operations.
Jon Daniels Executive Vice President, CarMax Auto Finance
As Executive Vice President of CarMax Auto Finance (CAF), Jon Daniels is responsible for all strategic and managerial aspects of the finance experience at CarMax, encompassing the captive finance company and relationships with lending and ancillary product partners. He was crucial in guiding CarMax through the 2008 credit crisis and the 2020 economic volatility, ensuring strong credit offers and maintaining a highly regarded asset-backed securities funding program. Mr. Daniels also spearheaded the development of Finance Based Shopping, a digital, multi-lender pre-qualification product. With over 25 years of experience in credit and lending, he previously worked for major financial institutions such as AT&T Universal Card, Citibank, and HSBC. He also spent seven years with Metris and supported its successful merger with HSBC in 2005.
Shamim Mohammad Executive Vice President, Chief Information and Technology Officer
Shamim Mohammad is the Executive Vice President and Chief Information and Technology Officer at CarMax. In this role, he oversees the strategic use of technology across the company, including digital innovations and product engineering, to deliver revenue-generating products and solutions that provide competitive advantages. He leads an entrepreneurial technology team and is recognized for cultivating digital talent and fostering a culture of learning and innovation. Mr. Mohammad is passionate about building organizational agility through the innovative application of technology.
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Here are the key risks to CarMax's business:
- Auto Loan Delinquencies and Credit Risk: CarMax faces significant risk from rising auto loan delinquencies, increased loan loss provisions, and tightening underwriting standards within its CarMax Auto Finance segment. The company's financial stability and profitability are directly impacted by the quality of its loan portfolio, and recent reports indicate increasing subprime auto loan delinquencies and higher provisions for loan losses.
- Cyclical Nature of the Automotive Industry and Demand Fluctuations: As a retailer of used vehicles, CarMax is highly susceptible to the cyclical nature of the automotive industry and broader economic conditions. Downturns in the economy, shifts in consumer demand, and even factors like temporary demand surges (e.g., due to tariff speculation) followed by declines can significantly impact sales, revenue growth, and overall profitability.
- Operational and Reputational Risks (Legal, Compliance, and Vehicle Quality): CarMax faces operational and reputational risks including legal and compliance challenges, such as a recent settlement with the Department of Justice (DOJ) for violating the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA) regarding vehicle repossessions. The company has also been subject to securities fraud lawsuits alleging misleading statements and concealed risks. Additionally, inherent risks in the used car market related to unknown vehicle histories, potential mechanical issues, and customer satisfaction with vehicle reconditioning can lead to post-sale issues and impact the company's reputation.
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The emergence of online-only used car retailers, such as Carvana and Vroom, offering fully digital purchasing processes, home delivery, and simplified transactions, poses a clear emerging threat. These companies directly challenge CarMax's traditional model, which historically relies on physical store visits and an in-person sales experience, by providing an alternative that prioritizes convenience and digital-first customer interaction.
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Addressable Markets for CarMax (KMX) Main Products or Services (U.S. Region)
- Used Vehicle Retail Sales: Null
- Extended Protection Plans (Auto Extended Warranty): The U.S. auto extended warranty market size is projected to be $34.93 billion in 2025 and grow to $37.26 billion in 2026, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7%.
- Reconditioning and Vehicle Repair Services (Automotive After-sales Services): The U.S. automotive after-sales services market size is estimated to be USD 211.14 billion in 2026. This market was valued at USD 183.4 billion in 2023 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% between 2024 and 2032.
- Financing Alternatives for Retail Customers (Used Vehicle Auto Loan Market): The U.S. auto loan market size is projected to be USD 676.20 billion in 2025. Within this, used vehicles are expected to capture 58.20% of the U.S. auto loan market share in 2025. This implies an addressable market of approximately USD 393.5 billion for used vehicle auto loans in 2025.
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CarMax (KMX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of strategic initiatives focused on enhancing customer experience, expanding its financial services, and increasing its market presence.
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Enhanced Omni-Channel Customer Experience and Digital Capabilities: CarMax is focusing on its omni-channel retail experience, supported by a new brand positioning campaign. This strategy aims to empower customers to purchase vehicles on their terms, whether online, in-store, or through a combination of both. Digital capabilities already support a significant portion of retail unit sales, indicating a continued push to leverage technology for increased sales volume.
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Growth in CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) Income: The company plans to boost income from CarMax Auto Finance by executing programmatic off-balance sheet sales of financial interests in non-prime securitizations and by assessing additional off-balance sheet funding levers. These efforts are designed to accelerate CAF penetration and support a full spectrum financing strategy, contributing to overall profitability and revenue.
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Expansion of Extended Protection Plan (EPP) Revenues: CarMax anticipates continued revenue generation from its Extended Protection Plans (EPP). These plans are offered to customers at the time of sale and consistently contribute to the company's gross profit.
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Increasing Market Share in the Used Vehicle Segment: CarMax aims to increase its market share in the U.S. market for used vehicles aged 0-10 years. Despite its current position as a large used-vehicle retailer, the company holds a 3.7% market share and has ambitions to exceed 5%, indicating a focus on capturing a larger portion of the available market.
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Share Repurchases
- CarMax accelerated its share repurchases, buying back approximately $200 million worth of shares (3 million shares) in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ending May 31, 2025).
- As of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, $1.74 billion remained under CarMax's share repurchase authorization.
- In fiscal year 2025, CarMax executed approximately $428.45 million in share repurchases. The company also repurchased $94.09 million in fiscal year 2024 and $333.93 million in fiscal year 2023.
Share Issuance
- CarMax's shares outstanding have shown a declining trend over the last few fiscal years, indicating net share repurchases rather than significant share issuances. For example, shares outstanding declined by 1.67% in fiscal year 2025 (to 156 million from 159 million in 2024) and by 0.67% in fiscal year 2024 (to 159 million from 160 million in 2023).
Inbound Investments
- No information is available regarding large strategic inbound investments made by third-parties, such as a strategic partner or a private equity firm, over the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- CarMax completed the acquisition of Edmunds Holding Company on June 1, 2021, for an enterprise value of $404 million, which included CarMax's initial $50 million minority stake investment made in January 2020.
Capital Expenditures
- CarMax's capital expenditures were $467.9 million in fiscal year 2025 and $465.3 million in fiscal year 2024. The increase in fiscal year 2025 was primarily due to the timing of land purchases.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are approximately $561.8 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes supporting future long-term growth in offsite reconditioning and auction facilities, as well as opening new retail stores and investing in technology. In fiscal year 2025, CarMax opened five new retail stores and additional reconditioning and auction facilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Holding CarMax Stock Really Means Now | 06/18/2026 | |
| CarMax Stock On Fire: Up 17% With 7-Day Winning Streak | 06/12/2026 | |
| CarMax Stock Falls 15% In A Single Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 04/15/2026 | |
| KMX Stock Surges 15% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Zacks Upgrade To Hold | 01/09/2026 | |
| CarMax Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| KMX: Strong Cash Flow at a Discounted Valuation? | 10/23/2025 | |
| With CarMax Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| The Price Of A CarMax Sales Beat | 06/18/2026 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 11/07/2025 | |
| Could CarMax Stock’s Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | 10/23/2025 | |
| CarMax Stock Fell 26% in a Month, What Now? | 10/16/2025 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 10/08/2025 |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 192.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.7 |
| Rev LTM | 26,687 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,105 |
| FCF LTM | 434 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 299 |
| CFO LTM | 701 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 538 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -7.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.7 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 4.9 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 5.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -38.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) | 26,353 | 26,536 | |||
| CarMax Sales Operations | 29,552 | 31,799 | |||
| Eliminations | -28 | -22 | |||
| Other | 161 | 124 | |||
| Extended protection plan revenues | 413 | ||||
| Other sales and revenues | 103 | ||||
| Service revenues | 92 | ||||
| Third-party finance income/(fees), net | -40 | ||||
| Used vehicle sales | 15,714 | ||||
| Wholesale vehicle sales | 2,669 | ||||
| Total | 26,353 | 26,536 | 29,685 | 31,900 | 18,950 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $53.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/04/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $42.39 | $43.49 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 26.6% | 23.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.8% | 55.2% |
| Downside Capture | 119.56 | 178.52 |
| Upside Capture | 146.51 | 108.56 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.8% | 31.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.84 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| Up Beta | 3.55 | -0.17 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Down Beta | 3.91 | 4.34 | 1.23 | 2.19 | 1.96 | 1.40 |
| Up Capture | 255% | 86% | 81% | 105% | 96% | 110% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 35 | 68 | 125 | 377 |
| Down Capture | 225% | 214% | 111% | 95% | 157% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 17 | 28 | 56 | 123 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KMX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX | -13.4% | 55.3% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 18.4% | 0.49 | 39.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 31.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 16.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KMX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX | -13.7% | 44.8% | -0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 53.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 50.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 5.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 46.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 19.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KMX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX | 0.8% | 40.8% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 56.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 48.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 14.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/20/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/17/2026 | -9.0% | ||
| 4/14/2026 | -15.1% | -17.2% | -22.1% |
| 12/18/2025 | -4.2% | -4.6% | 15.5% |
| 9/25/2025 | -20.1% | -19.3% | -24.4% |
| 6/20/2025 | 6.6% | 3.6% | -1.2% |
| 4/10/2025 | -17.0% | -19.9% | -17.4% |
| 12/19/2024 | 3.5% | 4.6% | -3.9% |
| 9/26/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | -2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 4.2% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.4% | -11.7% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 9.3% | 18.1% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -22.8% | -28.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/17/2026 | -9.0% | ||
| 4/14/2026 | -15.1% | -17.2% | -22.1% |
| 12/18/2025 | -4.2% | -4.6% | 15.5% |
| 9/25/2025 | -20.1% | -19.3% | -24.4% |
| 6/20/2025 | 6.6% | 3.6% | -1.2% |
| 4/10/2025 | -17.0% | -19.9% | -17.4% |
| 12/19/2024 | 3.5% | 4.6% | -3.9% |
| 9/26/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | -2.6% |
| 6/21/2024 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 13.2% |
| 4/11/2024 | -9.2% | -13.6% | -10.4% |
| 12/21/2023 | 5.2% | 4.2% | -7.3% |
| 9/28/2023 | -13.4% | -14.4% | -24.2% |
| 6/23/2023 | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% |
| 4/11/2023 | 9.6% | 5.7% | 10.1% |
| 12/22/2022 | -3.7% | 3.2% | 12.4% |
| 9/29/2022 | -24.6% | -22.8% | -28.2% |
| 6/24/2022 | 7.2% | -1.4% | 3.1% |
| 4/12/2022 | -9.5% | -6.7% | -13.0% |
| 12/22/2021 | -6.7% | -6.9% | -21.1% |
| 9/30/2021 | -12.6% | -11.7% | -7.1% |
| 6/25/2021 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 13.1% |
| 4/1/2021 | -7.0% | -3.4% | 0.4% |
| 12/22/2020 | -8.1% | -8.2% | 18.1% |
| 9/24/2020 | -11.0% | -13.2% | -13.7% |
| 6/19/2020 | -6.2% | -8.5% | -4.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 4.2% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.4% | -11.7% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 9.3% | 18.1% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -22.8% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 04/15/2026 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 04/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 04/15/2026 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 04/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 04/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2021 | 01/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 10/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2021 | 06/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 04/20/2021 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2020 | 01/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 10/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2020 | 07/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 04/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 11/30/2019 | 01/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 10/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2019 | 07/03/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/18/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 6/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 SG&A Reductions | 200.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 4/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 SG&A Reductions | 200.00 Mil | 33.3% | Raised | Guidance: 150.00 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | 400.00 Mil | ||||||
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automotive Retail Resources |
| Automotive News |
| Ward's Auto |
| CBT News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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