Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  Key risks
KMPR key risks include [1] its significant concentration in the California and Florida personal automobile insurance markets and [2] persistent profitability challenges, Show more.
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Insurance. Themes include Digital Claims Management, Data-Driven Underwriting, and Personalized Risk Management.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Insurance. Themes include Digital Claims Management, Data-Driven Underwriting, and Personalized Risk Management.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.8%
7 Key risks
KMPR key risks include [1] its significant concentration in the California and Florida personal automobile insurance markets and [2] persistent profitability challenges, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KMPR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -22.7% movement in Kemper (KMPR) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. Poor Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Kemper reported a net loss of $21.0 million, or $(0.34) per share, for the third quarter of 2025, a significant decline compared to net income of $73.7 million, or $1.14 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted consolidated net operating income of $0.33 per diluted share for Q3 2025 substantially missed analyst forecasts of $1.33 per share. This substantial miss on profitability contributed to the stock's decline, with the stock initially dropping 2.56% on November 5, 2025, and plunging 10.6% immediately after the earnings report.

2. Challenges in the Specialty Property & Casualty (P&C) Segment. The company's Specialty Property & Casualty segment experienced significant operational pressures. The underlying combined ratio for this segment deteriorated to 99.6% in Q3 2025, up from 91.3% in Q3 2024. This was primarily driven by a higher underlying loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) ratio of 78.5% (compared to 70.1% in Q3 2024), particularly due to elevated claims severity in its specialty auto business, notably in California bodily injury coverages, compounded by competitive pressures.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KMPR Return1%-22%-14%2%39%-37%-40%
Peers Return1%27%19%10%34%16%160%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KMPR Win Rate42%33%42%50%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate57%53%60%62%67%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KMPR Max Drawdown-27%-30%-28%-19%-0%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-5%-6%-18%-0%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PGR, ALL, TRV, HIG, AIG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKMPRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven134 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-84.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven540.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3,123 days1,480 days

Compare to SLF, L, GNW, HMN, XZO


In The Past

Kemper's stock fell -53.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/29/2021. A -53.0% loss requires a 112.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kemper (KMPR)

Better Bets than Kemper (KMPR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KMPR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kemper

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KMPRPGRALLTRVHIGAIGMedian
NameKemper Progress.Allstate Traveler.Hartford.American. 
Mkt Price41.14227.27209.08291.27138.3686.14173.72
Mkt Cap2.5144.855.065.338.947.751.3
Rev LTM4,83785,16666,20648,40927,69227,39038,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM55317,0498,6369,9855,8652,8037,250
FCF 3Y Avg16213,4206,8558,6824,9224,1205,888
CFO LTM58517,3868,8269,9855,9882,8037,407
CFO 3Y Avg20613,6907,0838,6825,1094,1206,096

Growth & Margins

KMPRPGRALLTRVHIGAIGMedian
NameKemper Progress.Allstate Traveler.Hartford.American. 
Rev Chg LTM4.5%18.4%6.9%6.7%6.9%2.9%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.8%20.6%10.1%10.1%8.6%9.8%10.0%
Rev Chg Q5.7%14.2%3.4%4.8%6.4%-5.2%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%3.4%0.9%1.2%1.6%-1.3%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM12.1%20.4%13.3%20.6%21.6%10.2%16.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%18.7%11.4%19.4%19.6%21.6%19.0%
FCF/Rev LTM11.4%20.0%13.0%20.6%21.2%10.2%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.4%18.4%11.0%19.4%18.9%21.6%18.6%

Valuation

KMPRPGRALLTRVHIGAIGMedian
NameKemper Progress.Allstate Traveler.Hartford.American. 
Mkt Cap2.5144.855.065.338.947.751.3
P/S0.71.70.91.31.41.61.3
P/EBIT9.4-5.18.18.18.48.1
P/E12.713.56.710.710.513.311.7
P/CFO5.48.36.46.36.315.56.3
Total Yield10.4%9.4%16.6%10.2%11.1%9.7%10.3%
Dividend Yield2.5%2.0%1.8%0.8%1.6%2.3%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.5%-14.8%17.2%15.8%9.2%14.8%
D/E0.3-0.10.10.10.20.1
Net D/E0.1--0.0-1.4-0.5-0.6-0.5

Returns

KMPRPGRALLTRVHIGAIGMedian
NameKemper Progress.Allstate Traveler.Hartford.American. 
1M Rtn12.8%0.9%0.4%2.8%5.2%13.3%4.0%
3M Rtn-21.2%-6.7%6.5%6.3%6.4%12.7%6.3%
6M Rtn-34.1%-12.6%7.9%10.8%11.7%3.4%5.6%
12M Rtn-36.3%-6.3%10.2%21.5%29.0%23.5%15.9%
3Y Rtn-13.5%85.1%70.9%68.7%97.6%47.2%69.8%
1M Excs Rtn12.1%0.1%-0.3%2.0%4.5%12.5%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-22.8%-7.4%0.8%3.9%4.4%9.6%2.3%
6M Excs Rtn-46.4%-25.0%-4.5%-1.5%-0.7%-9.0%-6.7%
12M Excs Rtn-48.8%-19.0%-2.5%9.1%14.5%10.3%3.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-86.0%11.7%5.6%-3.7%27.1%-22.7%1.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance3,8074,1834,0763,4513,193
Life Insurance582782839848859
Non-Core Operations558640   
Other122059026
Change in Fair Value of Equity and Convertible Securities5-8011572139
Impairment Losses-1-26-11-20-14
Net Realized Investment Gains-194653842
Preferred Property & Casualty Insurance  704726794
Total4,9445,5245,7935,2065,039


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance6,1466,5355,9364,8974,435
Life Insurance4,8985,0086,0636,4575,848
Non-Core Operations1,0751,225   
Corporate and Other6245451,6871,2771,156
Preferred Property & Casualty Insurance  1,2301,7111,550
Total12,74313,31414,91614,34212,989


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,167,017
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-22.7%
Average Daily Volume1,029,002
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.11
Basic Shares Quantity61,477,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-14.3%-12.8%-7.9%
8/5/2025-21.3%-15.0%-11.4%
5/7/20251.4%3.8%4.2%
2/5/20251.4%-3.7%-2.4%
10/30/2024-2.9%3.2%11.9%
7/24/20241.9%3.2%0.1%
4/23/20243.3%-0.3%2.6%
1/24/20247.1%3.8%-0.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative121311
Median Positive2.4%3.2%7.4%
Median Negative-6.5%-7.9%-9.9%
Max Positive9.9%15.9%24.3%
Max Negative-21.3%-15.8%-19.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023207202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022801202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-K 12/31/2021