KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (2/20/2026): $4.13 | Market Cap: $488.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (2/20/2026): $4.13Market Cap: $488.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 480% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. | Key risksKLC key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging IPO misrepresentation regarding child safety failures and [2] significant financial vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 480% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
| Key risksKLC key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging IPO misrepresentation regarding child safety failures and [2] significant financial vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) stock has lost about 30% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Weak Q3 2025 Financial Results and Lowered Outlook. On November 12, 2025, KinderCare reported a 51.6% year-over-year decrease in income from operations to $26.3 million and a 67.4% decrease in net income to $4.6 million for Q3 2025. Despite an EPS beat of $0.13 against an expected $0.12, revenue of $676.8 million reportedly missed analyst expectations, leading to a significant stock plunge of 20.94% in after-hours trading. The company's updated full-year 2025 guidance with adjusted EBITDA declining 7.0% year-over-year to $66.4 million reflected ongoing challenges with occupancy rates and enrollment figures.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets. Several major financial institutions downgraded KinderCare's stock and substantially lowered their price targets in late 2025. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to "Hold" in October 2025, slashing its price target from $20 to $6. UBS also downgraded its rating to "Hold" and reduced its price target to $4.50 in November 2025. These actions signaled diminished confidence in the company's future growth and profitability.
Show more
1. Weak Q3 2025 Financial Results and Lowered Outlook. On November 12, 2025, KinderCare reported a 51.6% year-over-year decrease in income from operations to $26.3 million and a 67.4% decrease in net income to $4.6 million for Q3 2025. Despite an EPS beat of $0.13 against an expected $0.12, revenue of $676.8 million reportedly missed analyst expectations, leading to a significant stock plunge of 20.94% in after-hours trading. The company's updated full-year 2025 guidance with adjusted EBITDA declining 7.0% year-over-year to $66.4 million reflected ongoing challenges with occupancy rates and enrollment figures.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets. Several major financial institutions downgraded KinderCare's stock and substantially lowered their price targets in late 2025. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to "Hold" in October 2025, slashing its price target from $20 to $6. UBS also downgraded its rating to "Hold" and reduced its price target to $4.50 in November 2025. These actions signaled diminished confidence in the company's future growth and profitability.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.2% change in KLC stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.90 | 4.12 | -30.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,687 | 2,692 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.2 | -30.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 118 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLC | -30.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.1% | 38.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.1% change in KLC stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -59.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.61 | 4.12 | -57.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,472 | 2,692 | 8.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.2 | -59.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 118 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLC | -57.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.6% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.2% | 33.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -80.1% change in KLC stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.74 | 4.12 | -80.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,173 | 2,692 | 23.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.2 | -79.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 90 | 118 | -23.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -80.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLC | -80.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.7% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.8% | 39.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KLC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.7% | 34.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 60.1% | 35.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KLC Return | - | - | - | -32% | -76% | -2% | -84% |
| Peers Return | -3% | -27% | 53% | 18% | -33% | -9% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KLC Win Rate | - | - | - | 33% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 44% | 50% | 52% | 35% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KLC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -33% | -79% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -40% | -21% | -27% | -42% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, DUOL, GHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KLC has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LOPE, FCHL, GV, DUOL, GHC
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
We are the largest private provider of high-quality early childhood education and care services (“ECE”) in the United States by center capacity. We are a mission driven organization, rooted in a commitment to providing all children with the very best start in life. We serve children ranging from 6 weeks to 12 years of age across our market leading footprint of 1,490 early childhood education centers with capacity of more than 195,000 children and contracts for more than 650 before- and after-school sites located in 40 states and the District of Columbia as of October 2, 2021. We believe families choose us because of our differentiated, inclusive approach and our commitment to delivering every child a high-quality educational experience in a nurturing and engaging environment. We operate all of our centers under the KinderCare brand and utilize a consistent curriculum and operational approach across our network. We offer a differentiated value proposition to the children, families, schools and employers we serve, driven by our market-leading scale and commitment to quality, access and inclusion. We leverage our extensive network of community-based centers, employer-sponsored programs, and before- and after-school sites, to meet parents where they are; an important factor in the context of evolving work styles as a result of the novel coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic. We utilize our proprietary curriculum with the goal of generating superior outcomes for children of all abilities and backgrounds. We use third-party assessment tools that consistently show children in our centers outperform their peers in other programs in readiness for kindergarten. We voluntarily seek accreditation at all of our centers and onsite programs, demonstrating our commitment to best practices for our sector. Our commitment to transparent, third-party validation of the quality and impact of our offerings is a critical factor for parents when selecting a center for their children. Our culture promotes high levels of employee engagement, which leads to better financial performance of our centers. Our expertise helping families access public subsidies for childcare is a core competency and drives greater levels of diversity and access in our centers. We have built a reputation as a leader in early childhood education and care across our three go-to-market channels: KinderCare Learning Centers, KinderCare Education at Work and Champions. • KinderCare Learning Centers (“KCLC”) is the largest private provider of community-based early childhood education centers in the United States by center capacity. As of October 2, 2021, KCLC operates approximately 1,400 KCLC centers. Most KCLC centers are accredited by accrediting bodies such as the National Association for the Education of Young Children (“NAEYC”). The accreditation process evaluates curriculum, evidence of learning, operating practices and health and safety protocols. The majority of the unaccredited centers are newer to our fleet of centers – either as newly built centers or as acquisitions and are currently in various stages of the two-year accreditation process. Families typically become aware of KCLC through our strong brand recognition, public relations campaigns, digital and direct marketing efforts and word of mouth references before enrolling directly in a center. KCLC serves families with children between six weeks and 12 years of age. KCLC represented 79.2% and 77.2% of our 2020 and 2019 revenue, respectively. • KinderCare Education at Work (“KCE at Work”) is a leading provider of employer-sponsored childcare programs. As of October 2, 2021, KCLC operates 72 onsite employer-sponsored centers. The KCLC centers and onsite employer-sponsored centers together comprise our early childhood education centers. We work closely with employers to design programs that effectively address the childcare needs of their employees. Our ability to offer both onsite centers, as well as access to our own leading KinderCare center network, provides flexibility and accessibility to a broad range of employees. We currently serve more than 600 employers through onsite programs and tuition discount benefit programs for employees. KCE at Work represented 17.8% and 18.1% of our 2020 and 2019 revenue, respectively. • Champions is a leading private provider of before- and after-school programs in the United States. Our outsourced model provides an attractive value proposition to schools and districts. We provide staff, teachers and curriculum to deliver high-quality supplemental education and care to families and children onsite at schools we serve, and have contracts for more than 650 sites as of October 2, 2021. Champions represented 3.0% and 4.7% of our 2020 and 2019 revenue, respectively. Our operating strategy is designed to deliver a high-quality experience for every child and family we serve across all of our centers and sites. This self-reinforcing strategy is anchored in four pillars: • Educational Excellence. We leverage our proprietary curriculum combined with third-party assessment tools and voluntary accreditation to deliver a high-quality educational experience and provide objective validation of the quality and impact of our programs. • People & Engagement. We utilize a proprietary, data-driven approach to attract, hire and develop exceptional talent. We instill a culture that builds emotional connections between our employees and our mission and values, driving high engagement across our organization. Our internal surveys consistently demonstrate that a more engaged workforce leads to better financial performance of our centers. • Health & Safety. We consistently adhere to strict procedures across all of our centers to provide a healthy, safe environment for our children and our workforce and to deliver confidence and peace of mind to families. Our procedures address both the physical and mental health of children and are informed by input from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (the “CDC”) and other third-party experts. • Operations & Growth. Our operational excellence enables us to deliver profitable growth and to fund consistent reinvestment into our service offerings. We utilize a robust technology platform and proprietary operating procedures to deliver a high-quality, consistent experience across our centers and sites. Our technology platform closely monitors activity across all centers and sites and allows us to stay connected with families on a daily basis through digital channels. We utilize this proprietary data to continuously refine our operations and adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences. We were originally formed as KC Holdco, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. In connection with this offering and the Reorganization, we will convert into a Delaware corporation pursuant to a statutory conversion and will be renamed KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. Our principal executive office is located at 650 NE Holladay, Suite 1400, Portland, OR.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC):
- Starbucks for childcare and early education.
- A national chain of preschools and daycare centers, similar to how Marriott operates hotels.
- Planet Fitness for early learning.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Early Childhood Education and Care: Provides full-day and part-day educational programs for infants, toddlers, and preschool-aged children.
- Before- and After-School Programs: Offers extended care and enrichment activities for elementary school-aged children.
- Employer-Sponsored Childcare Solutions: Partners with companies to provide on-site, near-site, or subsidized childcare benefits for their employees.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) primarily sells its services directly to individuals, specifically parents and guardians seeking childcare and early education for their children. Therefore, it does not have major corporate customers in the traditional business-to-business (B2B) sense.
The company serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Parents/Guardians of Infants and Toddlers: This category includes families seeking full-time care and early development programs for their youngest children (typically ages 6 weeks to 2 years).
- Parents/Guardians of Preschool and Pre-Kindergarten Children: This is a core customer group, as KinderCare provides structured educational programs designed for children aged 2-5 years, preparing them for kindergarten.
- Parents/Guardians of School-Age Children: KinderCare also caters to families needing before- and after-school programs, as well as summer camps and other holiday break programs for elementary school-aged children (typically 5-12 years old).
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Paul Thompson, Chief Executive OfficerBackground: Paul Thompson is the Chief Executive Officer of KinderCare Learning Companies, responsible for all aspects of the company's strategy, leadership, governance, and financial performance. He joined KLC in 2015 and held many roles including Chief Operating Officer, Chief Administrative Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and President before becoming CEO in June 2024. Before joining KinderCare, Paul was with Safeway from 2005-2015, starting as VP of Finance and advancing to SVP, Finance, Pricing and Enterprise Systems. Prior to Safeway, he worked in consumer packaged goods for 13 years with Diageo and Nestle (also Pillsbury). KinderCare Learning Companies has been acquired by private equity firms; Partners Group in 2015 and is currently owned by RBP Capital, indicating his experience in managing a company backed by private equity firms.
Tony Amandi, Chief Financial Officer
Background: Tony Amandi leads the accounting, treasury, control, internal audit, tax and risk, external reporting, finance, financial planning and analysis (FP&A), information systems and procurement functions for KinderCare Learning Companies. He joined KinderCare in 2009. Prior to his promotion to CFO in June 2019, Tony served as Senior Vice President of KinderCare's FP&A organization and was previously Corporate Controller. Before joining KinderCare, Tony worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers for nearly 10 years in their Audit and Assurance practice.
Dr. Marquita Davis, Chief Academic Officer
Background: Dr. Marquita Davis oversees the development of KinderCare's educational programs, educator professional development, quality and accreditation initiatives, research and evaluation, student support services, and public policy. She has over 20 years of experience in early childhood education, non-profit leadership, government, and philanthropy, including nearly six years as Deputy Director of Early Learning at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Dan Figurski, President, KLC for Employers and Champions
Background: Dan Figurski brings 20 years of experience in sales, marketing, and business management to his role. His leadership has accelerated the growth of Champions before- and after-school programs, and his role has extended to include KinderCare for Employers.
Michael Canavin, President, KCLC and Crème de la Crème Schools
Background: Michael Canavin joined KinderCare Learning Company in 2015. He has held several roles including Regional Vice President and Senior Vice President for KinderCare Learning Centers before moving into his current role in 2022. Before KinderCare, Michael was with Family Dollar Corporation for 10 years, where he advanced to Divisional Vice President.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) primarily revolve around ongoing legal challenges and their potential impact, significant reliance on government funding, and fundamental operational pressures.
-
Securities Class Action Lawsuit, Reputational Damage, and Regulatory Scrutiny: KinderCare is currently facing a securities class action lawsuit alleging that the company misrepresented itself during its Initial Public Offering (IPO) by not disclosing a history of child safety failures, neglect, and harm at its facilities. These allegations have contributed to a significant drop in KLC's stock price and expose the company to considerable financial liabilities, adverse regulatory actions, and severe reputational damage. The lawsuit also emphasizes that over 30% of KinderCare's revenue is derived from federal subsidies, making the company particularly vulnerable to regulatory penalties or the loss of this funding if safety standards are found to be inadequate.
-
Reliance on Government Subsidies and Political Risk: A substantial portion of KinderCare's revenue, estimated between 30% and 40%, comes from federal and government subsidies. This reliance presents a significant financial risk, as potential cuts to childcare subsidies due to shifts in the political climate or tightening government budgets could materially and adversely affect the company's financial condition and results of operations.
-
Declining Occupancy, Weak Core Business Performance, and Labor Challenges: KinderCare is contending with declining child care center occupancy rates and an outlook for tepid growth. Factors contributing to this include high teacher turnover, intense labor competition, low conversion rates from inquiries to enrollments, and leadership gaps. Furthermore, the company's profitability is strained by rising wage costs that are outpacing tuition increases. Shifts in workforce demographics and office environments could also lead to decreased demand for center-based child care.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expanding government-funded Universal Pre-Kindergarten (UPK) programs
AI Analysis | Feedback
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) operates in the U.S. early childhood education and child care markets. The company's main products and services include early childhood education and care for children aged six weeks to 12 years through KinderCare Learning Centers and Crème de la Crème Schools, as well as before- and after-school programs under the Champions brand. Additionally, KinderCare Learning Companies for Employers provides customized family care benefits, such as on-site or near-site care, tuition benefits, and backup care.
The addressable markets for KinderCare's main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- U.S. Child Care Market: The U.S. child care market size was estimated at USD 65.15 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach USD 109.88 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.02% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates suggest the U.S. child care market size will grow from USD 65.13 billion in 2025 to USD 95.13 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.3% during that period. The early education and early daycare segment constituted the largest revenue share of 45.73% in the child care market in 2024.
- U.S. Early Childhood Education Market: The U.S. early childhood education market is projected to grow from USD 11.73 billion in 2025 to USD 33.12 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 12.22% from 2025 to 2034. Other forecasts indicate the early childhood education market in the U.S. is expected to grow by USD 4-6 billion at a CAGR of 4%-6% between 2025 and 2029. Another report forecasts a growth of USD 5.36 billion during 2024-2029, with a CAGR of 4.1%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) anticipates several key drivers of future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Strategic Tuition Rate Adjustments: The company has historically experienced, and plans for continued, revenue growth through increases in tuition rates across its early childhood education centers.
- Expansion of Network through New Centers and Acquisitions: KinderCare is actively pursuing growth by opening new early childhood education centers and before- and after-school sites, as well as engaging in tuck-in acquisitions to expand its operational footprint and increase market share.
- Growth in Employer-Sponsored Childcare and Champions Programs (B2B Segment): A significant driver is the expansion of KinderCare's business-to-business (B2B) segment, which includes strengthening employer partnerships and growing its Champions after-school programs. This segment offers recurring revenue and is seen as a key growth pillar.
- Occupancy Rate Recovery driven by Targeted Initiatives: Despite some recent occupancy challenges, KinderCare is implementing strategic initiatives to stabilize and improve enrollment trends. These efforts include leveraging digital tools, targeted marketing, and enhanced leadership support for underperforming centers, aiming to restore occupancy momentum.
- Benefiting from Favorable Federal Childcare Policies: KinderCare expects to benefit from durable demand tailwinds stemming from federal policies. Full funding of the Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG) and tax changes, such as increased employer-provided childcare credits and expanded dependent care tax benefits, are anticipated to boost families' buying power and accelerate the adoption of employer-sponsored childcare, thereby driving customer growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- KinderCare Learning Companies has not reported significant share repurchase programs or dollar amounts within the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- KinderCare Learning Companies completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on October 9, 2024, offering 24,000,000 shares of common stock at an initial public offering price of $24.00 per share.
- The net proceeds from this offering were primarily utilized to repay $527.2 million of outstanding loans under the First Lien Term Loan Facility.
- As of March 19, 2025, the number of common shares outstanding was 118,006,276.
Inbound Investments
- Investment funds affiliated with Partners Group Holding AG maintained a controlling interest of 71.2% in KinderCare's common stock following the IPO, indicating a significant, pre-existing strategic investment that continued to be substantial.
Capital Expenditures
- KinderCare Learning Companies reported capital expenditures of $139.43 million in 2021, $129.05 million in 2022, and $132.32 million in 2023.
- These capital expenditures contribute to supporting the company's extensive market presence, which includes operating a broad network of early childhood education centers and before- and after-school programs across the United States.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to KLC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.8% |
| 01302026 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.6% | 13.6% | -1.0% |
| 01022026 | AAP | Advance Auto Parts | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 51.3% | 51.3% | -0.4% |
| 12192025 | KTB | Kontoor Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -10.3% |
| 12192025 | COUR | Coursera | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -21.8% | -21.8% | -24.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 57.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,891 |
| Op Inc LTM | 196 |
| FCF LTM | 295 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 225 |
| CFO LTM | 321 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 253 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -37.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -55.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -47.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -68.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.4% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.12 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/09/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -80.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.46 | $16.97 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.7% | -75.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.4% | 62.9% |
| Downside Capture | 91.61 | 191.04 |
| Upside Capture | 107.98 | -0.41 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.3% | 36.3% |
KLC Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.46 | 1.23 | 1.56 | 1.69 | 1.14 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | 6.07 | 1.08 | -1.53 | 1.94 | 0.90 | 0.06 |
| Down Beta | 2.25 | 1.77 | 3.66 | 3.20 | 1.62 | 0.11 |
| Up Capture | 236% | 172% | 58% | -23% | 3% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 30 | 57 | 112 | 146 |
| Down Capture | 106% | 6% | 197% | 186% | 139% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 16 | 28 | 65 | 133 | 175 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KLC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLC | -78.9% | 62.7% | -2.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 3.4% | 24.2% | 0.08 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 19.4% | 0.51 | 36.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.2% | 25.5% | 2.08 | -3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 16.9% | 0.25 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 16.7% | 0.20 | 39.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.2% | 44.9% | -0.66 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KLC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLC | -30.0% | 60.8% | -1.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.3% | 23.7% | 0.27 | 35.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 34.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.0% | 17.1% | 1.05 | -2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 34.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.9% | 57.1% | 0.34 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KLC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLC | -16.3% | 60.8% | -1.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 14.2% | 21.9% | 0.59 | 35.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 34.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.0% | 15.6% | 0.80 | -2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.8% | 20.7% | 0.29 | 34.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -19.2% | -26.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | -22.3% | -26.9% | -21.9% |
| 3/20/2025 | -22.2% | -28.1% | -37.6% |
| 11/20/2024 | -15.0% | 2.1% | -22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | ||
| Median Negative | -20.7% | -26.9% | -22.4% |
| Max Positive | 2.1% | ||
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -28.1% | -37.6% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.