Tearsheet

KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.4 | Market Cap: $520.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.4
Market Cap: $520.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 197%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education.
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 197%
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KLC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) experienced a significant stock movement of -39.6% in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors: 1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Report and Revised FY25 Guidance. KLC's stock plunged following a disappointing Q2 earnings report around August 13, 2025, which missed adjusted EPS expectations and prompted a downward revision of its FY25 revenue guidance from $2.75–$2.85 billion to $2.75–$2.80 billion.

2. Enrollment and Occupancy Challenges. A primary catalyst for the stock's decline was persistent enrollment and occupancy challenges, with Q2 same-center occupancy falling 130 basis points year-over-year to 71%. Management noted an unexpected weakening in enrollment trends late in the quarter, leading to a lowered FY25 occupancy forecast.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KLC Return------76%-76%
Peers Return24%-2%-18%-5%0%-12%-17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KLC Win Rate----0%30% 
Peers Win Rate27%10%19%25%21%22% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KLC Max Drawdown------79% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-6%-26%-19%-18%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

KLC has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)

Better Bets than KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KLC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for KinderCare Learning Companies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Mkt Price4.34153.720.341.4717.27-4.34
Mkt Cap0.54.3----2.4
Rev LTM2,6871,091--1,948-1,948
Op Inc LTM91297--224-224
FCF LTM42242----142
FCF 3Y Avg75223----149
CFO LTM179279----229
CFO 3Y Avg204262----233

Growth & Margins

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Rev Chg LTM3.9%7.0%--13.3%-7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.3%6.5%----13.4%
Rev Chg Q1.5%9.6%--27.8%-9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%2.1%--6.4%-2.1%
Op Mgn LTM3.4%27.2%--11.5%-11.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.0%26.6%--6.2%-10.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%0.1%--4.4%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM6.7%25.6%----16.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.9%25.8%----17.3%
FCF/Rev LTM1.6%22.2%----11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%21.8%----12.7%

Valuation

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Mkt Cap0.54.3----2.4
P/S0.45.6----3.0
P/EBIT12.919.2----16.0
P/E-20.028.8----4.4
P/CFO6.721.8----14.3
Total Yield-5.0%3.5%-----0.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.1%----5.1%
D/E2.10.0----1.0
Net D/E2.0-0.0----1.0

Returns

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
1M Rtn-28.0%-16.1%-25.0%-5.2%58.4%--16.1%
3M Rtn-39.4%-25.2%--4.5%15.8%--14.9%
6M Rtn-62.0%-21.1%--31.3%---31.3%
12M Rtn-80.7%-7.6%--0.7%---7.6%
3Y Rtn-40.6%--85.8%---22.6%
1M Excs Rtn-28.0%-16.1%-25.0%-5.1%58.5%--16.1%
3M Excs Rtn-45.1%-30.4%-97.3%-6.0%11.2%--30.4%
6M Excs Rtn-76.7%-35.8%--46.0%---46.0%
12M Excs Rtn-95.3%-20.2%--14.8%---20.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--33.7%--158.0%---95.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,423,752
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.5%
Average Daily Volume1,461,423
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.66
Basic Shares Quantity118,309,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024321202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241121202410-Q 9/30/2024
1231202310092024424B4 12/30/2023
930202211102022S-1/A 10/1/2022
33120225092022S-1/A 4/2/2022
123120213092022S-1/A 1/1/2022
630202110182021S-1 7/3/2021
1231202011082021S-1/A 1/2/2021