Tearsheet

KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.635 | Market Cap: $548.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.635
Market Cap: $548.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 426%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education.
Key risks
KLC key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging IPO misrepresentation regarding child safety failures and [2] significant financial vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies.
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 426%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
5 Key risks
KLC key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging IPO misrepresentation regarding child safety failures and [2] significant financial vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KLC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Report and Revised Full-Year Guidance. KinderCare Learning Companies experienced a significant stock plunge following its Q2 2025 earnings report, released on August 13, 2025, which missed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations and led to a downward revision of its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance. This report, just before the requested period, established a negative outlook for the months to follow, driven primarily by unexpected enrollment and occupancy softness, with Q2 same-center occupancy declining by 130 basis points year-over-year to 71%.

2. Continued Declines in Enrollment and Occupancy Rates. Throughout the specified period, KLC continued to face challenges with declining child care center occupancy rates. Goldman Sachs' downgrade in October 2025 projected these rates to contract further in 2025. The Q3 2025 earnings report in November confirmed a 2% decline in enrollment for early childhood education centers, contributing to reduced revenue from this core segment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KLC Return-74%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KLC Win Rate0%33% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KLC Max Drawdown-79% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

KLC has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)

Better Bets than KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KLC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for KinderCare Learning Companies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Mkt Price4.64165.890.281.3616.67-4.64
Mkt Cap0.54.6--3.1-3.1
Rev LTM2,6921,091--2,095-2,095
Op Inc LTM65297--305-297
FCF LTM60242--222-222
FCF 3Y Avg71223----147
CFO LTM193279--402-279
CFO 3Y Avg207262----235

Growth & Margins

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Rev Chg LTM2.2%7.0%--3.2%-3.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.7%6.5%--4.3%-6.5%
Rev Chg Q0.8%9.6%---2.8%-0.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.2%2.1%---0.9%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM2.4%27.2%--14.5%-14.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.0%26.6%--11.1%-11.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%0.1%---0.9%--0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM7.2%25.6%--19.2%-19.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%25.8%----17.2%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%22.2%--10.6%-10.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%21.8%----12.4%

Valuation

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
Mkt Cap0.54.6--3.1-3.1
P/S0.25.6--1.5-1.5
P/EBIT8.419.2--10.1-10.1
P/E-7.928.8---29.7--7.9
P/CFO2.821.8--7.7-7.7
Total Yield-12.6%3.5%---3.4%--3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%--0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.1%----5.1%
D/E4.60.0--0.9-0.9
Net D/E4.3-0.0--0.8-0.8

Returns

KLCLOPEFCHLGVMHMKTRMedian
NameKinderCa.Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T. 
1M Rtn26.1%1.7%-20.3%12.4%9.2%-9.2%
3M Rtn-35.3%-20.6%-95.8%-51.4%18.9%--35.3%
6M Rtn-53.0%-11.9%--27.3%---27.3%
12M Rtn-74.7%-0.2%--43.8%---43.8%
3Y Rtn-58.3%--85.3%---13.5%
1M Excs Rtn25.4%1.0%-21.0%11.7%8.4%-8.4%
3M Excs Rtn-37.3%-22.0%-97.3%-40.9%19.5%--37.3%
6M Excs Rtn-65.4%-24.3%--39.7%---39.7%
12M Excs Rtn-86.2%-11.6%--8.0%---11.6%
3Y Excs Rtn--7.2%--154.2%---80.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Single Segment2,5102,1661,808
Total2,5102,1661,808


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,013,773
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202524.3%
Average Daily Volume1,275,475
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.36
Basic Shares Quantity118,353,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-19.2%-26.4%-6.2%
8/12/2025-22.3%-26.9%-21.9%
3/20/2025-22.2%-28.1%-37.6%
11/20/2024-15.0%2.1%-22.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive010
# Negative434
Median Positive 2.1% 
Median Negative-20.7%-26.9%-22.4%
Max Positive 2.1% 
Max Negative-22.3%-28.1%-37.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024321202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241121202410-Q 9/30/2024
1231202310092024424B4 12/30/2023
930202211102022S-1/A 10/1/2022
33120225092022S-1/A 4/2/2022
123120213092022S-1/A 1/1/2022
630202110182021S-1 7/3/2021
1231202011082021S-1/A 1/2/2021