KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.4 | Market Cap: $520.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.4Market Cap: $520.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 197% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 197% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KLC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) experienced a significant stock movement of -39.6% in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Report and Revised FY25 Guidance. KLC's stock plunged following a disappointing Q2 earnings report around August 13, 2025, which missed adjusted EPS expectations and prompted a downward revision of its FY25 revenue guidance from $2.75–$2.85 billion to $2.75–$2.80 billion.
2. Enrollment and Occupancy Challenges. A primary catalyst for the stock's decline was persistent enrollment and occupancy challenges, with Q2 same-center occupancy falling 130 basis points year-over-year to 71%. Management noted an unexpected weakening in enrollment trends late in the quarter, leading to a lowered FY25 occupancy forecast.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KLC Return | - | - | - | - | - | -76% | -76% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -2% | -18% | -5% | 0% | -12% | -17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KLC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 10% | 19% | 25% | 21% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KLC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -6% | -26% | -19% | -18% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KLC has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KLC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for KinderCare Learning Companies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,948 |
| Op Inc LTM | 224 |
| FCF LTM | 142 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 149 |
| CFO LTM | 229 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 233 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 16.0 |
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -31.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -22.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -46.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11212024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 10092024 | 424B4 12/30/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | S-1/A 10/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | S-1/A 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3092022 | S-1/A 1/1/2022 |
| 6302021 | 10182021 | S-1 7/3/2021 |
| 12312020 | 11082021 | S-1/A 1/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
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