KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.635 | Market Cap: $548.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.635Market Cap: $548.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 426% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. | Key risksKLC key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging IPO misrepresentation regarding child safety failures and [2] significant financial vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 426% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Key risksKLC key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging IPO misrepresentation regarding child safety failures and [2] significant financial vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on government subsidies. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KLC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Report and Revised Full-Year Guidance.
KinderCare Learning Companies experienced a significant stock plunge following its Q2 2025 earnings report, released on August 13, 2025, which missed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations and led to a downward revision of its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance. This report, just before the requested period, established a negative outlook for the months to follow, driven primarily by unexpected enrollment and occupancy softness, with Q2 same-center occupancy declining by 130 basis points year-over-year to 71%.
2. Continued Declines in Enrollment and Occupancy Rates.
Throughout the specified period, KLC continued to face challenges with declining child care center occupancy rates. Goldman Sachs' downgrade in October 2025 projected these rates to contract further in 2025. The Q3 2025 earnings report in November confirmed a 2% decline in enrollment for early childhood education centers, contributing to reduced revenue from this core segment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KLC Return | � | � | � | � | � | -74% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KLC Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 0% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KLC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KLC has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KLC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for KinderCare Learning Companies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,095 |
| Op Inc LTM | 297 |
| FCF LTM | 222 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 147 |
| CFO LTM | 279 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 235 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.1 |
| P/E | -7.9 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -35.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -27.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -43.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -37.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -39.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -19.2% | -26.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | -22.3% | -26.9% | -21.9% |
| 3/20/2025 | -22.2% | -28.1% | -37.6% |
| 11/20/2024 | -15.0% | 2.1% | -22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | ||
| Median Negative | -20.7% | -26.9% | -22.4% |
| Max Positive | 2.1% | ||
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -28.1% | -37.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11212024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 10092024 | 424B4 12/30/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | S-1/A 10/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | S-1/A 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3092022 | S-1/A 1/1/2022 |
| 6302021 | 10182021 | S-1 7/3/2021 |
| 12312020 | 11082021 | S-1/A 1/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
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