KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $4.32 | Market Cap: $511.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $4.32Market Cap: $511.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 458% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work & Workforce Support. Themes include Childcare Services, and Early Childhood Education. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 458% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KLC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) experienced a significant decline of approximately 39.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, primarily due to several key factors.
1. Lowered Full-Year Guidance and Missed Revenue Targets: KinderCare reported disappointing third-quarter 2025 earnings, missing analyst expectations for revenue and subsequently lowering its full-year 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. This followed an earlier refinement of its FY25 revenue guidance after second-quarter earnings, reflecting a weaker outlook.
2. Persistent Decline in Enrollment and Occupancy Rates: The company faced continued softness in enrollment and a decline in occupancy rates at its early childhood education centers. Second-quarter same-center occupancy fell by 130 basis points year-over-year to 71%, and third-quarter same-center occupancy remained at the lower end of expectations, attributed to various local market challenges, inconsistent demand, and operational issues.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KLC Return | - | - | - | - | - | -74% | -74% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -2% | -18% | -5% | 0% | -11% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KLC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 10% | 19% | 25% | 21% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KLC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -6% | -26% | -19% | -18% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KLC has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KLC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for KinderCare Learning Companies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,095 |
| Op Inc LTM | 297 |
| FCF LTM | 222 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 147 |
| CFO LTM | 279 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 235 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | -7.4 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | -3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -24.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -32.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -31.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -46.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -93.2% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -19.2% | -26.4% | |
| 8/12/2025 | -22.3% | -26.9% | -21.9% |
| 3/20/2025 | -22.2% | -28.1% | -37.6% |
| 11/20/2024 | -15.0% | 2.1% | -22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | ||
| Median Negative | -20.7% | -26.9% | -22.9% |
| Max Positive | 2.1% | ||
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -28.1% | -37.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11212024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 10092024 | 424B4 12/30/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | S-1/A 10/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | S-1/A 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3092022 | S-1/A 1/1/2022 |
| 6302021 | 10182021 | S-1 7/3/2021 |
| 12312020 | 11082021 | S-1/A 1/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |