Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 74%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 145%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 74%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 27%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
3 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 145%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The public company Kestrel (symbol: KG) experienced a significant stock movement of -57.4% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 11, 2025, primarily due to several key factors:

**1. Deterioration in Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** Kestrel Group reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, which showed a substantial decline in profitability. The net income for the quarter was -$5.05 million USD, marking a drastic -107.23% change compared to the previous quarter's positive net income of $69.93 million USD. This sharp reversal from profit to loss likely caused a significant negative reaction from investors.

**2. Sustained Long-Term Underperformance.** The stock's decline was part of a broader negative trend, as Kestrel Group, Ltd. had experienced a significant decrease of -97.85% over the last year leading up to December 2025. This indicates ongoing challenges and a sustained loss of investor confidence, contributing to its vulnerability to further drops.

**3. Recent Acute Selling Pressure.** The stock exhibited notable declines in the immediate period leading up to December 2025, with a -32.31% fall over the last month and a -14.51% decrease compared to the previous week. These figures highlight persistent and intense selling pressure during the requested timeframe.

**4. Declining Market Capitalization.** Kestrel Group, Ltd.'s market capitalization decreased by -2.81% over the last week as of early December 2025, indicating an erosion of the company's overall market value and investor perception of its future prospects.

**5. Technical Weakness and Volatility.** The stock has demonstrated high volatility, with a reported 9.27% volatility. Furthermore, Kestrel Group, Ltd. shares have been trading below key moving averages, which signals a continued downward momentum and suggests a lack of technical support, potentially amplifying negative price movements.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KG Return0%0%0%0%0%-19%-19%
Peers Return-13%10%11%28%25%10%88%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%113%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KG Win Rate0%0%0%0%0%33% 
Peers Win Rate58%58%57%60%55%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KG Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-14%-21%-3%-1%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKL, ACGL, EG, RNR, SPNT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/10/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKGS&P 500
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-71.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven253.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5927 days1480 days

Compare to NP, WTW, MMC, AON, AJG


In The Past

Kestrel's stock fell -71.7% during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis from a high on 6/5/2007. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kestrel (KG)

Better Bets than Kestrel (KG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
14.4%14.4%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.6%-7.6%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
14.4%14.4%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.6%-7.6%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kestrel

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KGMKLACGLEGRNRSPNTMedian
NameKestrel Markel Arch Cap.Everest Renaissa.SiriusPo. 
Mkt Price11.472,083.7791.77315.47265.2921.83178.53
Mkt Cap0.126.233.913.112.22.512.6
Rev LTM2416,14619,04817,50912,1032,84014,125
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-2,3756,2954,2463,9892363,989
FCF 3Y Avg-2,5356,0084,6643,3402783,340
CFO LTM-2,5936,3414,2463,9892363,989
CFO 3Y Avg-2,7706,0574,6643,3402783,340

Growth & Margins

KGMKLACGLEGRNRSPNTMedian
NameKestrel Markel Arch Cap.Everest Renaissa.SiriusPo. 
Rev Chg LTM--6.6%17.5%8.7%-3.9%8.6%8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.2%28.9%14.2%44.8%13.8%14.2%
Rev Chg Q3,117.0%-2.5%11.0%-0.1%-19.7%34.7%5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM432.1%-0.7%2.7%-0.0%-6.1%7.3%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-16.1%33.3%24.3%33.0%8.3%24.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-17.1%38.6%29.6%30.3%10.2%29.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-14.7%33.0%24.3%33.0%8.3%24.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-15.7%38.2%29.6%30.3%10.2%29.6%

Valuation

KGMKLACGLEGRNRSPNTMedian
NameKestrel Markel Arch Cap.Everest Renaissa.SiriusPo. 
Mkt Cap0.126.233.913.112.22.512.6
P/S3.71.51.80.81.00.71.2
P/EBIT2.98.27.219.74.26.46.8
P/E1.311.58.226.36.710.69.4
P/CFO-9.35.33.42.98.95.3
Total Yield74.5%8.7%17.8%6.1%15.5%9.4%12.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%5.6%2.3%0.7%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-12.0%17.3%29.6%27.9%14.6%17.3%
D/E0.80.20.10.20.20.30.2
Net D/E-0.0-0.3-0.3-1.1-0.5-1.2-0.4

Returns

KGMKLACGLEGRNRSPNTMedian
NameKestrel Markel Arch Cap.Everest Renaissa.SiriusPo. 
1M Rtn-37.7%1.1%2.2%-3.4%-0.9%8.3%0.1%
3M Rtn-55.4%8.5%1.3%-6.6%11.4%17.1%4.9%
6M Rtn-55.1%8.0%2.7%-4.8%10.1%14.1%5.3%
12M Rtn-19.4%18.8%-1.7%-10.9%-0.8%41.0%-1.2%
3Y Rtn-19.4%60.5%60.7%0.9%45.7%255.0%53.1%
1M Excs Rtn-38.5%0.3%1.4%-4.2%-1.7%7.5%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn-60.8%1.6%-5.1%-13.4%4.1%9.4%-1.8%
6M Excs Rtn-69.5%-6.4%-11.7%-19.1%-4.2%-0.3%-9.0%
12M Excs Rtn-32.5%5.5%-19.3%-26.1%-17.6%24.7%-18.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.6%-12.5%-9.1%-70.7%-26.8%160.6%-19.7%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity136,316
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202525.4%
Average Daily Volume17,030
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8
Basic Shares Quantity7,741,943
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-19.7%-28.8% 
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative111
Median Positive   
Median Negative-19.7%-28.8% 
Max Positive   
Max Negative-19.7%-28.8% 

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025815202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120243262025424B3 12/31/2024