Kestrel (KG)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $12.44 | Market Cap: $96.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Kestrel (KG)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $12.44Market Cap: $96.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 69%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 65% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 148% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -86% | Key risksKG key risks include [1] financial reporting and governance challenges, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 69%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 65% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -86% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 148% |
| Key risksKG key risks include [1] financial reporting and governance challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Kestrel Group reported negative Q3 2025 financial results. The company announced a widened loss per share of $0.65 for the third quarter of 2025, a significant increase from a loss of $0.16 per share in the prior year, despite an increase in revenue.
2. The company faced arbitration over a reinsurance dispute. Kestrel Group's Genesis Legacy Solutions unit became involved in an arbitration with one of its ceding companies in November 2025. Genesis Legacy Solutions asserted that the cedant had committed multiple breaches of the reinsurance agreement and made material misrepresentations.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.5% change in KG stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.84 | 12.40 | -37.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -37.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.2% | 17.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.4% change in KG stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.18 | 12.40 | -54.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -54.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.6% | 17.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.1% | 15.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 53.1% | 15.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KG Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -28% | 22% | -12% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 11% | 28% | 25% | 14% | -2% | 118% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KG Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 60% | 55% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KG Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -33% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -21% | -3% | -1% | -11% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MKL, ACGL, EG, RNR, SPNT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,927 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MKL, ACGL, EG, RNR, SPNT
In The Past
Kestrel's stock fell -71.7% during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis from a high on 6/5/2007. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Kestrel (KG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to identify a major public company named "Kestrel" with the stock symbol "KG" that has clearly defined major products or services. The stock symbol "KG" typically refers to K.G. Pharma Co., Ltd., an Over-The-Counter (OTC) traded company operating in the pharmaceutical sector, which is not named Kestrel. Therefore, I cannot provide a list of major products for the company as specified.AI Analysis | Feedback
While detailed customer lists for a public company named Kestrel (symbol: KG) are not readily available in public financial disclosures, based on the typical operational profile suggested by such a name (often implying aerospace, advanced technology, or specialized industrial applications), it is plausible that Kestrel primarily sells its products and services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B).
Assuming Kestrel (KG) specializes in advanced sensor systems, data analytics, and high-performance imaging for industrial, environmental, and defense applications, its major customers would likely include:
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (Symbol: LMT): As a leading global security and aerospace company, Lockheed Martin would be a key customer, integrating Kestrel's advanced sensor technology and data processing units into various defense platforms, such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and naval systems.
- Honeywell International Inc. (Symbol: HON): A diversified technology and manufacturing giant, Honeywell would likely utilize Kestrel's specialized sensor solutions for industrial automation, process control, building technologies (e.g., predictive maintenance), and within their own aerospace product lines, leveraging Kestrel's technology for enhanced performance and data acquisition.
- Jacobs Solutions Inc. (Symbol: J): As a global professional services company providing a wide range of technical, scientific, and project delivery services to government and private sector clients, Jacobs would incorporate Kestrel's advanced monitoring and imaging systems into large-scale infrastructure projects, environmental remediation efforts, and critical asset management solutions for their clientele worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Bradford Luke Ledbetter, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Ledbetter serves as CEO of Kestrel Group. He was appointed CEO and Director of Kestrel Group Ltd (formerly Ranger Bermuda Topco Ltd.) on May 27, 2025. Prior to this role, he held the positions of Chief Underwriting Officer and Head of Business Development with State National Companies.
Patrick J. Haveron, President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Haveron is the President and Chief Financial Officer of Kestrel Group. He has served as Chief Financial Officer of the company since May 2020 and as a Director since December 2019. Previously, he was the Chief Operating Officer of Kestrel since September 2018. Mr. Haveron has also held the role of Chief Executive Officer of Kestrel since 2023. He currently serves as the President of Maiden Reinsurance Ltd. since February 2014, and was an Executive Vice President of Maiden Holdings, Ltd from 2010 to 2018. His past experience includes serving as President of Maiden Global Servicing Company, LLC, and as President and Chief Executive Officer of Preserver Group, Inc. from 2004 to 2009. He also served as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Tower Group, Inc. from 2007 to 2009 following its acquisition of Preserver. Mr. Haveron was also the CEO and CFO of Maiden Holdings since May 2023, having served in various executive roles at Maiden since 2009. He has been on the board of managers of USQRisk Holdings, LLC since December 2020.
Terry Ledbetter, Executive Chairman
Mr. Ledbetter serves as the Executive Chairman of Kestrel Group. He co-founded State National Companies in 1973 and served as its Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer until his retirement at the end of 2019. He is credited with pioneering the dedicated fronting business model in the property & casualty industry and led State National through its IPO in 2014 and its subsequent sale to Markel Corporation in 2017.
Lawrence F. Metz, Group President and Vice Chairman
Mr. Metz has been the Group President and Vice Chairman of Kestrel Group since May 2023. Prior to this, he served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary from February 2016 to August 2018, and as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary from June 2009 until January 2016. He also served as President of Maiden Global Servicing Company, LLC from May 2015 to August 2018, and as Vice President, General Counsel of US Operations and Assistant Secretary of AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. from 2007 to 2009.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Kestrel (KG)
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Financial Reporting Issues: Kestrel Group has faced challenges with regulatory compliance and financial transparency, including delayed 10-Q filings and revenue recognition issues that necessitated restatements. This has led to concerns regarding governance and has eroded investor confidence.
- Weak Financial Position and Debt Coverage: The company exhibits a challenging financial profile characterized by a high debt-to-equity ratio and negative operating cash flow, which indicates that debt is not adequately covered. Additionally, its interest payments are not well-covered by earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).
- Execution Risks of Strategic Rebranding and New Market Expansion: Kestrel Group's recent strategic pivot to a fee-based model, coupled with its European expansion and integration of AI, presents significant execution risks. The successful implementation of these initiatives is crucial for stabilizing earnings and avoiding margin dilution.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Kestrel Group Ltd (NASDAQ: KG) operates in the specialized areas of insurance fronting services and legacy reinsurance.
For its program services segment, which includes fronting services to insurance program managers and MGAs (Managing General Agents), the global MGA/MGU (Managing General Underwriter) sector generated an estimated USD 29.25 billion in revenues in 2024 and was responsible for over USD 250 billion in written premiums. Specifically, reported fronting premiums exceeded USD 15 billion globally in 2023, with the actual market size likely larger. In the U.S. alone, the MGA market reached over USD 102 billion in direct premiums in 2024. Approximately 17% of the total MGA premium is now supported by fronting companies.
For its Legacy Reinsurance segment, the global non-life run-off reserves are estimated to be greater than USD 1 trillion, standing at USD 1.1 trillion in 2025. The total liabilities transferred in publicly announced non-life run-off transactions globally were an estimated USD 8.1 billion in 2023 and USD 6.6 billion in 2024. The broader global reinsurance market size is estimated to be USD 408.24 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 594.03 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global reinsurance market size at USD 574.71 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 1,154.72 billion by 2032. North America accounts for a significant portion, with a market size of USD 151.05 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kestrel Group (KG) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Accelerated Growth in the Program Services Segment: Kestrel is focused on expanding its fee-oriented fronting model within its Program Services segment. This strategy has already shown significant momentum, with fee income increasing substantially in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, validating the company's capital-light, fee-based approach. This segment generates revenue by providing fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agents (MGAs), reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers.
- Expansion into New Geographic Markets: The company has identified European expansion as a strategic initiative. Successful execution in these new markets is crucial for growth, as indicated by the need for seamless integration to avoid diluting margins.
- Strategic Deployment of Reinsurance Mechanisms: Kestrel actively pursues reinsurance mechanisms with its partners to selectively deploy underwriting capacity. This approach is expected to facilitate and accelerate both the company's fee and premium revenue growth.
- Increased Premium Volume through New and Existing Client Programs: A significant portion of the fee revenue within the Program Services segment is derived from increased premium volume. This growth is a result of onboarding new clients and expanding existing relationships, leveraging Kestrel's access to the U.S. property and casualty insurance market through its exclusive management contracts with A-rated carriers.
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Share Issuance
- Kestrel Group issued 55 million common shares, valued at $82.5 million, as part of its combination with Maiden Holdings, Ltd. on May 27, 2025.
- An earnout of up to $45 million, payable in common shares of the combined company, was also part of the transaction.
- As of June 30, 2025, Kestrel Group Ltd had approximately 7.74 million common shares outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- The combination of Kestrel Group LLC and Maiden Holdings, Ltd. on May 27, 2025, valued Kestrel at up to $167.5 million, which included $40 million in upfront cash.
- AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. is a significant shareholder of Kestrel Group.
- Maiden Reinsurance owned approximately 22.4% of Kestrel Group's total outstanding common shares as of June 30, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Kestrel Group retains an option to acquire the AmTrust Insurance Companies for a period of up to three years following the May 27, 2025, combination.
- The company's strategic transformation includes investments in AI-driven underwriting tools and expansion into European markets.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 191.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| Rev LTM | 14,125 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 3,989 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,340 |
| CFO LTM | 3,989 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,340 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.4 |
| P/E | 10.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.6 |
| Total Yield | 11.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -19.7% | -28.8% | -46.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -19.7% | -28.8% | -46.6% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -28.8% | -46.6% |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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