Kestrel (KG)
Market Price (8/7/2026): $8.74 | Market Cap: $67.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Reinsurance
Kestrel (KG)
Market Price (8/7/2026): $8.74Market Cap: $67.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Reinsurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 57%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 53% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1175% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -251%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -251% Key risksKG key risks include [1] financial reporting and governance challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 57%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 53% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1175% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -251%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -251% |
| Key risksKG key risks include [1] financial reporting and governance challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Kestrel (KG) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Kestrel Group (KG) experienced a significant deterioration in its financial performance for fiscal Q1 2026. The company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $7.0 million, equating to a loss of $0.90 per share for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. This represents a substantial increase in losses compared to the $0.14 loss per share reported in fiscal Q1 2025. While the Program Services segment demonstrated strong growth with fee revenues up 286.6% year-over-year to $3.1 million, these gains were largely offset by an underwriting loss of $3.3 million in the Legacy Reinsurance segment.
2. The stock was removed from key market indices in June 2026, leading to potential selling pressure. Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) was dropped from both the Russell 3000E Growth Benchmark and the Russell 3000E Index around June 28-29, 2026. Such removals often trigger sales by index-tracking funds that must adjust their portfolios to reflect the new index compositions, contributing to downward pressure on the stock price.
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Kestrel (KG) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Kestrel Group (KG) experienced a significant deterioration in its financial performance for fiscal Q1 2026. The company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $7.0 million, equating to a loss of $0.90 per share for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. This represents a substantial increase in losses compared to the $0.14 loss per share reported in fiscal Q1 2025. While the Program Services segment demonstrated strong growth with fee revenues up 286.6% year-over-year to $3.1 million, these gains were largely offset by an underwriting loss of $3.3 million in the Legacy Reinsurance segment.
2. The stock was removed from key market indices in June 2026, leading to potential selling pressure. Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) was dropped from both the Russell 3000E Growth Benchmark and the Russell 3000E Index around June 28-29, 2026. Such removals often trigger sales by index-tracking funds that must adjust their portfolios to reflect the new index compositions, contributing to downward pressure on the stock price.
3. Concerns were raised regarding the quality of the company's earnings. A "new major risk" related to earnings quality was identified on March 16, 2026, due to Kestrel Group having a high level of non-cash earnings, indicated by an accrual ratio of 98%. A consistently high level of non-cash earnings can signal that a company is recognizing revenue before receiving the full cash value or is not appropriately depreciating assets, which can reduce investor confidence in the sustainability of reported earnings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.3% change in KG stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -89.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.72 | 8.91 | -8.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32 | 3 | -89.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 25.7 | 1001.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 10 | -21.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -8.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.9% | 14.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.9% | 18.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.9% change in KG stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.87 | 8.91 | -24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 3 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 25.7 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 19.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.7% | 28.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -67.2% change in KG stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.18 | 8.91 | -67.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 3 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 25.7 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -67.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.6% | 20.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.7% | 23.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KG | -37.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.8% | 19.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 71.0% | 21.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KG Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -28% | -14% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 11% | 28% | 25% | 14% | 5% | 135% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KG Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 60% | 55% | 60% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KG Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -71% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -29% | -17% | -15% | -16% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MKL, ACGL, EG, RNR, SPNT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 160 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6467 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Kestrel's stock fell -28.8% during the 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash. Such a loss loss requires a 40.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | KG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 160 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6467 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Kestrel's stock fell -28.8% during the 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash. Such a loss loss requires a 40.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Kestrel (KG)
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Terry Ledbetter, Executive Chairman
Mr. Ledbetter co-founded State National Companies in 1973, serving as Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer until his retirement at the end of 2019. He spearheaded the dedicated fronting business model in the property and casualty industry and guided State National through its IPO in 2014 and its subsequent sale to Markel Corporation in 2017.
Bradford Luke Ledbetter, CEO
Mr. Ledbetter serves as CEO of Kestrel Group. Previously, he was Chief Underwriting Officer and Head of Business Development with State National Companies. During his tenure at State National, gross written premium expanded to more than $2.5 billion annually.
Pat Haveron, President and CFO
Mr. Haveron previously held the positions of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of Maiden Holdings starting in May 2023, having served in various leadership and executive roles at Maiden since 2009. Since December 2020, he has been a member of the board of managers of USQRisk Holdings, LLC. From 2004 to 2009, Mr. Haveron was President and Chief Executive Officer of Preserver Group, Inc., a publicly traded property and casualty insurer, where he had also served in financial and executive leadership roles since 1988. Following Preserver's acquisition by Tower Group, Inc. in 2007, he also served as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Tower Group, Inc. from 2007 to 2009.
Steven H. Nigro, Director
Mr. Nigro possesses over 35 years of experience in financial services, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions and capital raising within the insurance industry. He has been a member of Maiden's board since July 2007, serving as Lead Independent Director from November 2016 and Vice Chairman from August 2018. His past roles include Managing Director at Rhodes Financial Group, LLC and Hales & Company, both financial advisory firms specializing in the insurance sector. From 1994 to 1998, he was the Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and a Director of Tower Group, Inc.
Jeffrey Weissmann, Director
Mr. Weissmann is a corporate attorney in private practice. He served as general counsel and secretary of National General Holdings Corp., a personal lines insurer, from 2011 until its acquisition by Allstate in 2021.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Kestrel's business include:
- Exposure to Complex and Illiquid Level 3 Assets: Kestrel's book value and earnings are highly sensitive to model assumptions and external market shifts due to its exposure to complex and illiquid Level 3 assets.
- Related Party Transactions: Material transactions with affiliates, particularly in reinsurance, pose a risk of earnings volatility and potential regulatory scrutiny. Changes or disruptions in these arrangements could significantly impact underwriting results and risk exposure.
- Regulatory and Economic Environment: As a provider of fronting services in the insurance industry, Kestrel is susceptible to changes in the broader business environment, including fluctuations in inflation and interest rates, and evolving financial, economic, regulatory, and political conditions affecting the industry.
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Kestrel (symbol: KG) specializes in providing fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agents (MGAs), reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers. The addressable markets for these services are substantial across different regions.
- The global market for revenues earned by MGAs, managing general underwriters (MGUs), and cover-holders was estimated at approximately USD 29.25 billion in 2024.
- In terms of premiums, MGAs globally were responsible for over USD 250 billion in written premiums across all insurance classes in 2024.
- In the United States, MGA-sourced premiums totaled $90.4 billion in 2024. The U.S. fronting market alone, where specialized carriers offer services primarily to MGAs, exceeded $12 billion in premium size in 2023.
- The broader global insurance, reinsurance, and insurance brokerage market was valued at $9516.36 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $13413.37 billion by 2030.
- The global reinsurance market, which is directly relevant to Kestrel's services to reinsurers, was valued at USD 408 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 643.88 billion by 2033. The market size for Global Reinsurance Carriers specifically was $376.0 billion in 2026.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Kestrel (symbol: KG) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Program Services Segment: Kestrel Group is undergoing a strategic shift to focus on its fee-based program services platform, with a priority on expanding fee income. This segment demonstrated significant momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with fee revenues increasing by 91.5% sequentially and premium produced rising by 79.2% compared to the third quarter of 2025.
- Expansion of Client Programs and Premium Production: The company anticipates revenue growth through the expansion of both new and existing client programs within its Program Services segment, leading to higher premium production. For the full year 2025, premium generated by client programs surged by 81.4% year-over-year to $188.3 million.
- Capital Reallocation from Legacy Assets: Kestrel is actively working to monetize illiquid alternative assets and implement finality solutions for its legacy reinsurance operations. The capital freed up from these initiatives will be strategically reallocated to support the scaling of its Program Services segment and further expand fee income.
- Development of Reinsurance Mechanisms: The company is actively exploring and pursuing new reinsurance mechanisms with its current partners. This strategy aims to selectively deploy Kestrel's underwriting capacity, which is expected to facilitate and accelerate both its fee and premium revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Kestrel Group completed a business combination with Maiden Holdings on May 27, 2025, which led to changes in share count and ownership, with Maiden becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kestrel Group Ltd.
- As of November 3, 2025, there were 7,741,943 common shares outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- On May 27, 2025, Kestrel Group completed a business combination with Maiden Holdings, which resulted in a $68.3 million gain on bargain purchase for Kestrel in 2025.
- Following the combination, total assets were reported at $1.0 billion as of December 31, 2025, and $1.1 billion as of September 30, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Kestrel Group holds an option to acquire the AmTrust Insurance Companies for a period of up to three years following the May 27, 2025, combination.
- Management is actively reducing legacy alternative investments and pursuing asset disposals to reallocate capital and free it for program growth.
- Kestrel Group holds diversified investments including direct lending entities, private equity funds, privately held equity securities, and real estate investments.
Capital Expenditures
- Kestrel's strategic transformation includes investments in AI-driven underwriting tools.
- The company is also focused on expansion into European markets.
- Post-combination, the company's focus is on monetizing illiquid alternative assets and reallocating capital to support the scaling of Program Services and expansion of fee income.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 211.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.9 |
| Rev LTM | 13,749 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 2,059 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,561 |
| CFO LTM | 2,163 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,561 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net investment income and net realized and unrealized investment gains | 15 | ||
| Legacy Reinsurance | 13 | ||
| Program Services | 6 | ||
| Single segment | 5 | 1 | |
| Total | 34 | 5 | 1 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Legacy Reinsurance | 733 | 0 |
| Corporate assets | 252 | 0 |
| Assets held for sale | 19 | |
| Program Services | 6 | 5 |
| Total | 1,010 | 6 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -70.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.24 | $23.22 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -20.7% | -61.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 73.7% | 74.8% |
| Downside Capture | 153.51 | 203.32 |
| Upside Capture | 25.73 | 30.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.5% | 20.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.87 | 0.05 | 0.74 | 0.96 | 1.15 | 0.18 |
| Up Beta | 2.60 | -1.43 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 1.21 | 0.17 |
| Down Beta | 4.46 | -0.63 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 1.31 | 0.32 |
| Up Capture | 75% | 2% | 63% | 96% | 21% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 62 | 115 | 137 |
| Down Capture | 99% | 144% | 125% | 139% | 148% | 61% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 30 | 62 | 132 | 152 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KG | -66.9% | 74.6% | -1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 14.6% | 0.63 | 23.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.5% | 12.9% | 1.37 | 20.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.3% | 28.3% | 0.79 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.4% | 19.8% | 1.30 | -8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 16.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KG | -22.6% | 79.2% | -1.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.3% | 18.4% | 0.47 | 21.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 19.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.5% | 0.78 | -2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.31 | -9.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 12.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.0% | 53.0% | 0.38 | 19.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KG | -12.0% | 79.2% | -1.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.1% | 0.57 | 21.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 19.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.2% | 0.59 | -2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | -9.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 12.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 19.2% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
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