Kestrel (KG)
Market Price (12/11/2025): $11.4 | Market Cap: $88.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Kestrel (KG)
Market Price (12/11/2025): $11.4Market Cap: $88.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 74%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 145% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 74%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 145% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Kestrel (symbol: KG) experienced a significant stock movement of -57.4% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 11, 2025, primarily due to several key factors:
**1. Deterioration in Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** Kestrel Group reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, which showed a substantial decline in profitability. The net income for the quarter was -$5.05 million USD, marking a drastic -107.23% change compared to the previous quarter's positive net income of $69.93 million USD. This sharp reversal from profit to loss likely caused a significant negative reaction from investors.
**2. Sustained Long-Term Underperformance.** The stock's decline was part of a broader negative trend, as Kestrel Group, Ltd. had experienced a significant decrease of -97.85% over the last year leading up to December 2025. This indicates ongoing challenges and a sustained loss of investor confidence, contributing to its vulnerability to further drops.
**3. Recent Acute Selling Pressure.** The stock exhibited notable declines in the immediate period leading up to December 2025, with a -32.31% fall over the last month and a -14.51% decrease compared to the previous week. These figures highlight persistent and intense selling pressure during the requested timeframe.
**4. Declining Market Capitalization.** Kestrel Group, Ltd.'s market capitalization decreased by -2.81% over the last week as of early December 2025, indicating an erosion of the company's overall market value and investor perception of its future prospects.
**5. Technical Weakness and Volatility.** The stock has demonstrated high volatility, with a reported 9.27% volatility. Furthermore, Kestrel Group, Ltd. shares have been trading below key moving averages, which signals a continued downward momentum and suggests a lack of technical support, potentially amplifying negative price movements.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KG Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| Peers Return | -13% | 10% | 11% | 28% | 25% | 10% | 88% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KG Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 57% | 60% | 55% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KG Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -14% | -21% | -3% | -1% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKL, ACGL, EG, RNR, SPNT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/10/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5927 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NP, WTW, MMC, AON, AJG
In The Past
Kestrel's stock fell -71.7% during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis from a high on 6/5/2007. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kestrel
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 178.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.6 |
| Rev LTM | 14,125 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 3,989 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,340 |
| CFO LTM | 3,989 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,340 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.6 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/CFO | 5.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -19.7% | -28.8% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -19.7% | -28.8% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -28.8% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3262025 | 424B3 12/31/2024 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |