Kardigan (KARD)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $22.46 | Market Cap: $878.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Kardigan (KARD)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $22.46Market Cap: $878.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Key risksKARD key risks include [1] the uncertainty of clinical development and regulatory approval for its novel drug candidates and [2] its dependence on securing substantial additional capital as a recently incorporated, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Key risksKARD key risks include [1] the uncertainty of clinical development and regulatory approval for its novel drug candidates and [2] its dependence on securing substantial additional capital as a recently incorporated, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Kardigan (KARD) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 6/18/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-IPO stabilization following an initial surge.
Kardigan (KARD) experienced a substantial gain on its market debut on June 18, 2026, with shares closing at $22.00, a 37.5% increase from its IPO price of $16.00. After this initial pop, the stock has largely consolidated, trading around $22.26 as of July 14, 2026, reflecting a period of stabilization as early market enthusiasm settled and investors assessed the company's long-term prospects. This post-debut stability is not uncommon for new listings as the initial speculative trading subsides.
2. Absence of near-term company-specific catalysts.
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company with no current revenue, Kardigan's valuation is heavily tied to future clinical trial milestones. The next significant company-specific catalysts, topline Phase 2b data for its three lead cardiovascular therapies (danicamtiv, ataciguat, and tonlamarsen), are not anticipated until the first half of 2027 (fiscal Q1-Q2 2027). The lack of major news or data readouts within the short post-IPO period (June 18, 2026, to July 14, 2026) contributed to the stock remaining at a relatively stable level after its initial market entry.
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Kardigan (KARD) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 6/18/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-IPO stabilization following an initial surge.
Kardigan (KARD) experienced a substantial gain on its market debut on June 18, 2026, with shares closing at $22.00, a 37.5% increase from its IPO price of $16.00. After this initial pop, the stock has largely consolidated, trading around $22.26 as of July 14, 2026, reflecting a period of stabilization as early market enthusiasm settled and investors assessed the company's long-term prospects. This post-debut stability is not uncommon for new listings as the initial speculative trading subsides.
2. Absence of near-term company-specific catalysts.
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company with no current revenue, Kardigan's valuation is heavily tied to future clinical trial milestones. The next significant company-specific catalysts, topline Phase 2b data for its three lead cardiovascular therapies (danicamtiv, ataciguat, and tonlamarsen), are not anticipated until the first half of 2027 (fiscal Q1-Q2 2027). The lack of major news or data readouts within the short post-IPO period (June 18, 2026, to July 14, 2026) contributed to the stock remaining at a relatively stable level after its initial market entry.
3. Strong institutional and insider buying post-IPO providing support.
Significant insider and institutional purchases occurred shortly after the IPO, signaling strong confidence in Kardigan's valuation and future. HRTG GPE, LLC acquired 16,917,034 shares at $22.77 per share on June 22, 2026, a transaction exceeding $385 million and making Kardigan 33.03% of its holdings. Additionally, HRTG PV, L.P., a ten percent owner, purchased 3,125,000 shares at $16.00 per share, valued at $50 million, and directors Arch Venture Partners XIII, LL and Paul L. Berns each purchased 1,250,000 shares at $16.00, totaling $20 million each, on the same day. These substantial investments, all exceeding the $5 million threshold, provided a floor for the stock price after its initial rise.
4. Positive long-term analyst outlook with significant upside potential.
Wall Street analysts initiated coverage on Kardigan with overwhelmingly positive ratings, projecting substantial long-term growth. Multiple firms issued "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings, with consensus price targets ranging from $43.50 to $46.00. These targets imply a potential upside of approximately 85% to 95% from the current trading price. While these targets indicate belief in significant future appreciation, the distant nature of the primary clinical catalysts has kept the stock largely anchored to its post-IPO trading range in the immediate term, as investors await further developments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.0% | 43.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 2.7% | 43.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.0% | 43.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.9% | 43.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KARD Return | - | - | - | - | - | 7% | 7% |
| Peers Return | 35% | 15% | 6% | -8% | 46% | -2% | 116% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KARD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 42% | 37% | 58% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KARD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -27% | -35% | -33% | -28% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CYTK, BMY, PFE, IONS, ALNY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KARD has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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KARD has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Kardigan (KARD)
Kardigan (KARD) is a clinical-stage precision therapeutics company dedicated to developing innovative medicines for cardiovascular diseases. The company differentiates itself by focusing on targeting the root causes of specific cardiovascular conditions, particularly those for which no approved treatments currently exist. Kardigan utilizes deep domain expertise in cardiovascular biology, patient data, and advanced analytics to accelerate its drug discovery and development process.
The company aims to develop multiple targeted cardiovascular treatments in parallel. Its management team brings a proven track record in the field, including leaders from MyoKardia, Inc., who were instrumental in the successful development and approval of mavacamten for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, underscoring Kardigan's strong foundation in cardiovascular drug development.
Kardigan's primary market consists of patients suffering from specific cardiovascular diseases where current treatments often provide only symptomatic relief, and innovation has lagged. By advancing precision medicines, the company seeks to overcome the challenges of traditional, broad approaches, ultimately striving to deliver meaningful improvements in patient outcomes and move closer to cures for these conditions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Kardigan (KARD):
- Like MyoKardia, but building a pipeline of precision medicines for various heart conditions.
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals for cardiovascular disease.
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- Precision Cardiovascular Therapeutic Candidates: These are drug candidates targeting the root cause of specific cardiovascular diseases where no approved treatments currently exist.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kardigan (KARD) is a clinical-stage precision therapeutics company. As such, it is primarily engaged in the research and development of new medicines and does not currently have any approved commercial products available for sale. Therefore, Kardigan does not have major customers in the traditional sense, whether they be other companies or individual consumers purchasing its products.
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Tassos Gianakakos, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chair
Tassos Gianakakos is a driven executive and entrepreneur with over 20 years of deep industry experience, building and scaling successful biopharmaceutical companies. Prior to co-founding Kardigan, he served as Chief Executive Officer of MyoKardia, a cardiovascular drug development company, which was acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb for $13.1 billion in 2020. He also co-founded Prolaio, a cardiovascular technology and connected care company, which Kardigan acquired in March 2025.
Brianne Puglisi, Chief Financial Officer
Brianne Puglisi previously served as Chief Business Officer at LianBio and as SVP of Finance & Strategic Operations at Kadmon.
Jay Edelberg, M.D., Ph.D., Co-Founder and Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Jay Edelberg co-founded Prolaio, where he developed Hospital-to-Home Transition Care and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) solutions. He was previously Chief Medical Officer for MyoKardia, overseeing the development of treatments for obstructive HCM until its acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb in 2020. He has also held senior-level roles at Sanofi, Bristol Myers Squibb, and GlaxoSmithKline.
Robert McDowell, Ph.D., Co-Founder and Chief Scientific Officer
Dr. Robert McDowell brings decades of successful leadership in biopharmaceutical drug discovery to Kardigan. He was a key member of the team that founded MyoKardia in 2012, advancing treatment breakthroughs as Senior Vice President of Drug Discovery and Chief Scientific Officer until the company's acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb in 2020.
Andy Pasternak, Chief Strategy Officer
Andy Pasternak is a biopharmaceutical executive with over two decades of leadership experience across corporate strategy, business development, portfolio management, and commercial development. He was previously a senior partner at Bain & Company, where he headed the firm's Healthcare Practice in the Americas, and also served as EVP & CSO at Horizon Therapeutics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for Kardigan (KARD) are primarily associated with the inherent challenges of being a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel precision therapeutics.
- Clinical Development and Regulatory Approval Risk: As a clinical-stage company, Kardigan's success hinges on the successful outcome of its ongoing and future clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approvals for its drug candidates. The drug development process is lengthy, expensive, and uncertain, with a high rate of failure, especially for novel therapies targeting the root cause of diseases where no approved treatments currently exist. Failure to demonstrate safety and efficacy in clinical trials or to obtain regulatory approvals would significantly impair the company's ability to generate revenue and achieve its mission.
- Financing Risk and Lack of Commercial Products: Kardigan is a relatively new company, incorporated in August 2023, and as a clinical-stage entity, it currently has no approved products on the market and therefore no revenue from product sales. The company will require substantial additional capital to fund its research and development activities, including extensive clinical trials, and to establish manufacturing and commercialization infrastructure. There is a significant risk that the company may not be able to raise sufficient additional funding on acceptable terms, or at all, which could force it to delay, reduce the scope of, or abandon its development programs.
- Intense Competition and Intellectual Property Protection: While Kardigan aims to develop treatments where no approved options exist, the cardiovascular disease market is highly competitive. Other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, including larger, more established players, may be developing or could develop competing precision medicines or other treatments. Kardigan's ability to compete will depend on its capacity to protect its intellectual property, which is crucial for its proprietary technologies and drug candidates. Failure to obtain or maintain adequate patent protection, or facing challenges to its intellectual property rights, could undermine its competitive position and future commercial prospects.
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Kardigan (symbol: KARD) operates within the precision cardiovascular therapeutics market, which is estimated to have a global addressable market opportunity of $8–$19 billion.
The company is developing several late-stage product candidates for specific cardiovascular diseases where approved treatments are currently lacking. These include:
- Danicamtiv, for genetic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) driven by sarcomeric variants.
- Ataciguat, aimed at slowing the progression of moderate calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS).
- Tonlamarsen, for the post-hospitalization management of acute severe hypertension (ASH).
Kardigan also leverages its proprietary Prolaio platform, a data and analytics system that integrates wearable sensors, FDA-cleared algorithms, and AI analytics to enhance drug discovery and development.
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- Successful Clinical Trial Outcomes and Pipeline Progression: The primary driver for Kardigan will be the successful advancement of its lead pipeline candidates through ongoing clinical trials. Key data readouts are anticipated in 2027 for its three late-stage programs: danicamtiv for genetic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), ataciguat for moderate calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS), and tonlamarsen for acute severe hypertension (ASH). Positive results from these Phase 2 and impending Phase 3 trials are crucial for de-risking these assets and paving the way for eventual regulatory approvals and commercialization.
- Future Product Launches in Unmet Medical Need Areas: Although direct product sales revenue is not expected within the immediate 2-3 year timeframe given the company's clinical stage, the successful development and regulatory approval of its precision therapeutics are critical for future product launches. Kardigan is focused on developing medicines for cardiovascular diseases where no approved treatments currently exist, which would enable entry into significant new markets upon approval, driving substantial revenue growth in the longer term.
- Strategic Partnerships for Global Commercialization: While Kardigan intends to commercialize its products independently in the United States, the company is "laying the groundwork for global introduction" of its programs. Future strategic partnerships or licensing agreements for markets outside the U.S. could generate significant upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalty revenues, contributing to future revenue growth.
- Leveraging the Cardiac Intelligence / Prolaio Platform for Pipeline Expansion and Efficiency: Kardigan’s proprietary Cardiac Intelligence, or Prolaio, platform integrates real-world patient data and advanced analytics to accelerate drug discovery, unearth new medicines, and optimize clinical trial design and execution. The effective utilization of this platform to identify and advance additional targeted cardiovascular treatments more efficiently could lead to a broader and more robust pipeline, thereby creating more potential future revenue streams.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Kardigan (KARD)
Share Issuance
- Kardigan priced its initial public offering (IPO) of 25 million shares at $16 per share, generating gross proceeds of $400 million.
- The company granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase an additional 3.75 million shares at the IPO price, which could result in an additional $60 million in gross proceeds if fully exercised.
- The estimated net proceeds from the IPO are approximately $366.8 million, or $422.6 million if the underwriters fully exercise their option.
Inbound Investments
- Kardigan commenced operations in January 2025 with a Series A funding round that raised $300 million.
- In October 2025, the company secured $254 million through a Series B financing round.
- Key investors in these private funding rounds included ARCH Venture Partners, HRTG Partners (formerly Sequoia Heritage), Perceptive Advisors, Fidelity Management & Research Co., and T. Rowe Price Investment Management Inc.
Outbound Investments
- Kardigan has engaged in strategic in-licensing agreements to expand its pipeline of targeted treatments. This includes licensing danicamtiv from Bristol Myers Squibb (originally discovered by MyoKardia), ataciguat from Sanofi and the Mayo Clinic, and tonlamarsen from Ionis Pharmaceuticals.
Capital Expenditures
- Kardigan reported capital expenditures of $-6.64 million as of December 2025.
- Research and development expenses significantly increased to $45.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, driven by intensified clinical development across the company's drug pipeline.
- The company plans to allocate $80 million to $90 million each to danicamtiv and ataciguat, and $40 million to $50 million to tonlamarsen, to advance these programs through key Phase 2b milestones and towards the initiation of Phase 3 studies.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 37.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,287 |
| Op Inc LTM | 752 |
| FCF LTM | 643 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 231 |
| CFO LTM | 715 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 286 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 47.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 87.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.22 | 1.63 | 3.13 | 0.79 | -2.93 | 0.33 |
| Up Beta | -13.54 | -10.82 | 4.49 | 0.54 | -17.20 | -9.86 |
| Down Beta | 1.21 | -3.53 | 1.35 | 5.13 | 2.62 | 3.87 |
| Up Capture | 41% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Down Capture | -51% | -40% | -35% | -15% | -10% | -5% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARD | 1.2% | 82.6% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 18.7% | 15.8% | 0.89 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.6% | 1.28 | 32.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 27.9% | 0.65 | 17.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.3% | 18.9% | 1.14 | -41.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.9% | 0.64 | 42.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -47.0% | 42.7% | -1.37 | 39.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARD | 0.2% | 82.6% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.9% | 14.9% | 0.22 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 32.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 17.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 19.5% | 0.33 | -41.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 42.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.8% | 53.4% | 0.42 | 39.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARD | 0.1% | 82.6% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.0% | 16.6% | 0.49 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 32.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 17.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.27 | -41.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 42.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.3% | 66.2% | 0.97 | 39.4% |
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SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/26/2026 | S-1 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/26/2026 | S-1 |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hrtg, Gpe, Llc | HRTG PV, L.P. | Buy | 6242026 | 16.00 | 3,125,000 | 50,000,000 | 237,869,888 | Form | |
| 2 | Berns, Paul L | ARCH Venture Fund XIII, L.P. | Buy | 6242026 | 16.00 | 1,250,000 | 20,000,000 | 240,672,560 | Form | |
| 3 | Arch, Venture Partners Xiii, Llc | By: ARCH Venture Fund XIII, L.P. | Buy | 6242026 | 16.00 | 1,250,000 | 20,000,000 | 240,672,560 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hrtg, Gpe, Llc | HRTG PV, L.P. | Buy | 6242026 | 16.00 | 3,125,000 | 50,000,000 | 237,869,888 | Form | |
| 2 | Berns, Paul L | ARCH Venture Fund XIII, L.P. | Buy | 6242026 | 16.00 | 1,250,000 | 20,000,000 | 240,672,560 | Form | |
| 3 | Arch, Venture Partners Xiii, Llc | By: ARCH Venture Fund XIII, L.P. | Buy | 6242026 | 16.00 | 1,250,000 | 20,000,000 | 240,672,560 | Form |
Industry Resources
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