Kairos Pharma (KAPA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $0.95 | Market Cap: $16.4 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Kairos Pharma (KAPA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $0.95Market Cap: $16.4 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.6 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -43% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 179% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.6 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -43% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 179% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KAPA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Continued Net Losses Despite Clinical Progress
Kairos Pharma reported a net loss of -$5.06 million for the trailing 12 months ending September 30, 2025, with no revenue, indicating continued unprofitability for the clinical-stage company. While the company's Q3 2025 earnings per share beat analyst estimates, the overall financial picture of sustained losses can temper investor enthusiasm, especially after initial positive news.
2. Profit-Taking After Initial Stock Surge
Prior to September 2025, Kairos Pharma's stock experienced a significant surge, gaining nearly 79% in the six months leading up to the positive interim efficacy results from its Phase 2 trial of ENV105. This substantial run-up likely led to profit-taking by investors, contributing to a subsequent correction in the stock price.
3. Extended Timeline to Commercialization and Revenue Generation
As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Kairos Pharma is not yet generating revenue, and the commercialization of its lead drug candidate, ENV105, is still in future development phases. The extended timeline to market and profitability can lead to investor caution and pressure on the stock, particularly after the initial excitement of positive clinical trial data has subsided.
4. Bearish Technical Trading Signals
Technical analysis as of early December 2025 indicated a bearish outlook for Kairos Pharma in the mid-term, with a greater number of sell signals than buy signals. The stock price also declined in four of the last ten trading days leading up to December 4, 2025.
5. Potential for Future Share Dilution
Given the company's ongoing operational costs and lack of revenue, there remains an inherent expectation of future financing needs to fund its clinical trials and development programs. Such financing typically involves the issuance of new shares, which can lead to dilution for existing shareholders and exert downward pressure on the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KAPA Return | - | - | - | - | - | -40% | -40% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 3% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KAPA Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KAPA Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -70% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
KAPA has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Day 8 of Gains Streak for Kairos Pharma Stock with 67% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [9/9/2025] | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KAPA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kairos Pharma
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.5 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -70 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -2 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -350.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -302.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -304.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.5 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | -17.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 42.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 26.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4152025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | S-1/A 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 9172024 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9292023 | S-1 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 9182023 | DRS/A 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142024 | S-1/A 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292023 | DRS 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |