James River (JRVR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $6.73 | Market Cap: $309.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance
James River (JRVR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $6.73Market Cap: $309.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -233% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include AI-Powered Specialty Underwriting, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Key risksJRVR key risks include [1] legacy liabilities and adverse reserve development from past high-risk underwriting, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -233% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include AI-Powered Specialty Underwriting, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Key risksJRVR key risks include [1] legacy liabilities and adverse reserve development from past high-risk underwriting, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JRVR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Improvement in Q3 2025 Financial Results
James River Group Holdings reported a notable improvement in its third-quarter 2025 financial performance, achieving adjusted net operating income of $17.4 million, a substantial turnaround from a loss in the prior year's third quarter. The company also reported a combined ratio of 94.0% for the quarter, indicating strong underwriting profitability.
2. Increase in Tangible Common Equity Per Share
The company's tangible common equity per share increased to $8.24 by the third quarter of 2025, marking a 23.4% rise since December 31, 2024. This significant growth in equity suggests improved financial health and could bolster investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JRVR Return | 23% | -39% | -27% | -55% | -46% | 37% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 18% | 16% | 9% | 36% | 6% | 154% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JRVR Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 17% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 55% | 50% | 63% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JRVR Max Drawdown | -32% | -48% | -29% | -59% | -51% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -11% | -12% | -9% | -1% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKL, KNSL, WRB, RLI, AXS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JRVR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 552.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 363 days | 120 days |
Compare to OSG, MFC, AFL, MET, PRU
In The Past
James River's stock fell -84.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -84.7% loss requires a 552.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With James River Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JRVR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for James River
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,071 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 771 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 829 |
| CFO LTM | 800 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 842 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.5 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 10.0 |
| P/E | 13.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess and Surplus Lines | 690 | 570 | 509 | 430 | 658 |
| Specialty Admitted Insurance | 120 | 82 | 84 | 63 | 61 |
| Corporate and Other | 2 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 5 |
| Casualty Reinsurance | 179 | 167 | 184 | ||
| Total | 812 | 662 | 773 | 669 | 907 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess and Surplus Lines | 3,084 | 2,628 | 1,997 | 2,208 | 2,482 |
| Specialty Admitted Insurance | 1,387 | 1,278 | 1,062 | 908 | 786 |
| Assets held for sale | 783 | 1,146 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 63 | 85 | 32 | 48 | 57 |
| Casualty Reinsurance | 1,857 | 1,899 | 1,699 | ||
| Total | 5,317 | 5,137 | 4,949 | 5,063 | 5,024 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 15.1% | 3.9% | 15.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| 3/3/2025 | -28.4% | -19.6% | -14.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | -25.1% | -32.0% | -31.1% |
| 8/5/2024 | -4.9% | -3.7% | -8.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | -6.5% | -4.9% | -11.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | -3.7% | -6.9% | -9.9% |
| 11/8/2023 | -7.0% | -35.3% | -37.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -10.6% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 15.1% | 13.5% | 15.3% |
| Max Negative | -28.4% | -35.3% | -37.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Life & Health Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |