JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (2/13/2026): $303.02 | Market Cap: $837.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (2/13/2026): $303.02Market Cap: $837.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% | Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67% |
| Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Offset by Higher 2026 Expense Projections. JPMorgan Chase reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. For example, the bank announced a net income of $13.0 billion, or $14.7 billion excluding a significant item, with an adjusted EPS of $5.23 against a forecast of $4.86. However, this positive performance was largely tempered by the earlier announcement in December 2025 that the bank anticipated 2026 expenses to reach $105 billion, exceeding analyst consensus by over 4%. This forward-looking guidance on increased operational costs, driven by growth-related expenses, including investments in AI, dampened investor enthusiasm and led to a notable stock drop at the time, essentially offsetting the later positive earnings surprise.
2. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Broader Banking Sector Headwinds. While JPMorgan Chase generally maintained a "Buy" or "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from analysts during this period, there was also a degree of caution reflected in their outlook. Analysts pointed to potential risks within the banking sector, such as unexpected increases in credit costs, reduced loan demand, and intensified competition for deposits. Furthermore, the broader banking environment for 2026 was anticipated to face headwinds in net interest income due to expectations of lower interest rates and a potentially slowing economy. These sectoral concerns and a nuanced analyst view contributed to the stock's consolidation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.3% change in JPM stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 309.72 | 302.64 | -2.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 175,656 | 179,430 | 2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.2% | 32.3% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 14.4 | -5.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,789 | 2,762 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | -2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.1% | 52.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.3% | 82.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.1% change in JPM stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 293.48 | 302.64 | 3.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 172,842 | 179,430 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.5% | 32.3% | -6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.9 | 14.4 | 3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,819 | 2,762 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 3.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 54.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.0% | 77.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.5% change in JPM stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 261.93 | 302.64 | 15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 165,232 | 179,430 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.5% | 32.3% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.9 | 14.4 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,861 | 2,762 | 3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.2% | 72.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.5% | 84.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 132.2% change in JPM stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 130.36 | 302.64 | 132.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 123,417 | 179,430 | 45.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.0% | 32.3% | 7.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 14.4 | 38.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,961 | 2,762 | 7.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 132.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 132.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.8% | 59.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 47.9% | 82.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JPM Return | 28% | -13% | 31% | 44% | 37% | -3% | 180% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -16% | 18% | 41% | 43% | -2% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JPM Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 43% | 55% | 63% | 70% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JPM Max Drawdown | -1% | -34% | -6% | -1% | -11% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -28% | -14% | -5% | -16% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, MS, C, JPM. See JPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 448 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 297 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 263 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 234.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,535 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, MS, C, JPM
In The Past
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -40.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -40.6% loss requires a 68.5% gain to breakeven.
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About JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
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The Amazon of banking and financial services.
Like Walmart, but for nearly every financial product and service you can imagine.
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- Deposit Accounts (Retail Banking): Services for individuals and and small businesses to manage their money, including checking and savings accounts.
- Consumer Lending (Retail Banking): Providing various loan products such as mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards for personal and small business financing.
- Investment Banking Advisory & Underwriting: Offering strategic advice on mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures, and facilitating the issuance of equity and debt securities for corporations and governments.
- Capital Markets Sales & Trading: Facilitating client transactions and providing liquidity in various financial markets, including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities.
- Commercial & Corporate Lending: Providing loans and credit facilities to mid-sized and large corporations, financial institutions, and government entities.
- Treasury Services (Corporate Banking): Offering cash management, payment processing, and liquidity solutions to corporate and institutional clients.
- Asset & Wealth Management: Managing investment portfolios and providing comprehensive financial planning and advisory services for institutions and high-net-worth individuals.
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JPMorgan Chase (symbol: JPM) operates as a universal bank, serving a wide array of clients across various segments including large corporations, institutions, governments, and millions of individual consumers and small businesses. Its business model is highly diversified, making it challenging to definitively categorize its "primary" customer type as exclusively other companies or exclusively individuals, as both contribute significantly to its revenue and operations.
However, given the prompt's structure which asks for specific company names if the company sells primarily to other companies (information that banks do not publicly disclose for their clients due to confidentiality and competitive reasons) or categories if the company sells primarily to individuals, it is most appropriate to describe the categories of its most numerous customer base. From a sheer volume and customer relationship count perspective, JPMorgan Chase serves millions of individual consumers and small businesses, making this a primary customer base in terms of the number of clients served.
Therefore, the major categories of customers that JPMorgan Chase primarily serves include:
- Mass Market Consumers: This category encompasses millions of individuals and households who utilize a broad range of retail banking products and services. These include checking and savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and basic investment services. These customers are primarily served through its extensive branch network, online platforms, and mobile banking applications under the "Chase" brand.
- Small Business Owners: Small businesses represent a significant customer segment, relying on JPMorgan Chase for essential business banking services. This includes business checking and savings accounts, credit lines, term loans, payment processing solutions, and other treasury services tailored to their operational needs. These services are often provided through the Consumer & Community Banking or Commercial Banking segments, depending on the size and complexity of the business.
- Affluent and High-Net-Worth Individuals: This segment comprises individuals with substantial assets who require more specialized financial planning, private banking, wealth management, and investment advisory services. JPMorgan Chase serves these clients through its Chase Private Client and J.P. Morgan Wealth Management offerings, providing personalized advice and sophisticated investment solutions.
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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Jamie Dimon has been the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase since 2006 and Chairman since 2007. He began his professional career at American Express in 1982, serving as Assistant to the President. He then became a key member of the team that launched Commercial Credit Company in 1986, serving as CFO and later President. Commercial Credit made several acquisitions, including Primerica Corporation and The Travelers Corporation, eventually becoming Travelers Group. Dimon served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Travelers from 1990 to 1998, and concurrently as COO of its Smith Barney Inc. subsidiary. He was named President of Citigroup Inc. in 1998, which was formed by the combination of Travelers Group and Citicorp. In 2000, Dimon became Chairman and CEO of Bank One, leading its turnaround before its merger with JPMorgan Chase in 2004, when he became President and COO of the combined company.
Jeremy Barnum, Chief Financial Officer
Jeremy Barnum is the Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase and a member of the firm's Operating Committee. He is responsible for Global Finance and Business Management, the Treasury/Chief Investment Office, Control Management, and the Firmwide Business Resiliency Office. Barnum joined JPMorgan Chase in 1994 and has held various leadership roles, including Head of Global Research for J.P. Morgan's Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB), and CFO and Chief of Staff for the CIB from 2013 to 2021. He was appointed CFO of JPMorgan Chase in 2021. He graduated from Harvard College with a degree in Chemistry. Barnum previously worked at BlueMountain Capital, where he was head of its London office in 2005, after a brief departure from JPMorgan in 2004.
Daniel Pinto, Vice Chairman
Daniel Pinto is the Vice Chairman of JPMorgan Chase. He has spent over 40 years at JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor companies, beginning as a financial analyst and foreign exchange trader at Manufacturers Hanover in Buenos Aires in 1983. He held increasingly senior Markets roles, including Head of Emerging Markets and Head of Global Fixed Income, and served as CEO of the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region from 2011 to 2017. He was Co-CEO of the Corporate & Investment Bank in 2012, becoming sole CEO in 2014. From January 2018 to June 2025, he served as Co-President and Chief Operating Officer, and then as sole President and COO in 2022. He assumed the role of Vice Chairman on July 1, 2025.
Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO, Asset & Wealth Management
Mary Callahan Erdoes is the Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase's Asset & Wealth Management division, a position she has held since 2009. She oversees trillions of dollars in client assets. Erdoes joined J.P. Morgan in 1996 as Head of Fixed Income for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. She became CEO of the Private Bank in 2005 before being appointed to her current role. Prior to JPMorgan, she worked at Stein Roe & Farnham, Bankers Trust, and Meredith, Martin & Kaye. She earned her Bachelor of Science degree in mathematics from Georgetown University and her MBA from Harvard Business School.
Marianne Lake, CEO, Consumer & Community Banking
Marianne Lake is the CEO of Consumer & Community Banking (CCB) and a member of the JPMorgan Chase Operating Committee. In this role, she is responsible for all of CCB and leads International Consumer Banking. Lake has been with the firm for 25 years. She previously served as CFO for JPMorgan Chase from 2013 to 2019. Prior to that, she was CEO of Consumer Lending from 2019 to 2021. Lake started her career as a chartered accountant at PricewaterhouseCoopers in London and Sydney. She holds a Bachelor of Science in Physics from Reading University in the United Kingdom.
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The key risks to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) include geopolitical and macroeconomic instability, escalating cybersecurity threats, and an evolving regulatory and legal landscape.
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Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Risks: JPMorgan Chase's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has identified geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic volatility as the most significant risks to the bank, characterizing the current global environment as the "most perilous and complicated" since World War II. Concerns include the war in Ukraine, Middle East terrorism, the potential for a global nuclear arms race, Europe's fragmentation, and ongoing trade disputes and the rise of China. Additionally, U.S. political polarization and substantial government deficit spending could contribute to higher inflation. Such global turmoil can significantly impact the bank's capital markets businesses and client activities across different countries.
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Cybersecurity and Technology Risks: The financial institution is facing an unprecedented volume of cyberattacks, with reports indicating up to 45 billion intrusion attempts daily. Jamie Dimon has explicitly stated that cyberattacks represent the "biggest threat to the U.S. financial system." A successful breach could lead to disruptions in critical financial services, compromise sensitive data, and erode public trust, making robust cybersecurity measures paramount. The bank's extensive reliance on technology and digital systems also exposes it to risks from system failures and operational vulnerabilities.
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Regulatory and Legal Risks: Operating within a heavily regulated global financial system, JPMorgan Chase is continuously exposed to changes in laws, rules, and compliance requirements. These changes can result in increased operational costs and impact strategic initiatives. The firm also faces substantial legal and reputational risks, as demonstrated by intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, such as the investigation related to Jeffrey Epstein's accounts. Furthermore, past incidents like a 2014 data breach underscore the ongoing operational, strategic, financial, and legal risks associated with maintaining data security and regulatory compliance.
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There are two clear emerging threats to JPMorgan Chase:
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Big Tech companies expanding into financial services: Giants like Apple, Google, and Amazon are increasingly leveraging their massive user bases, technological prowess, and data to offer banking-like products and services. Examples include Apple Card, Apple Pay Later, and Apple's high-yield savings account (in partnership with Goldman Sachs). These companies can provide superior user experience, seamless integration into their ecosystems, and often operate with a lower cost structure than traditional banks by foregoing physical branches. This directly threatens JPMorgan Chase's significant revenue streams from consumer banking, payments, and potentially lending by drawing away customers with highly integrated, user-friendly alternatives.
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The rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and blockchain-based financial systems: While still in relatively early stages of broad adoption, DeFi platforms and related blockchain technologies aim to disintermediate traditional financial institutions by offering services like lending, borrowing, payments, and asset management directly between participants. The underlying technology could fundamentally change how financial transactions occur, potentially bypassing central intermediaries like JPMorgan Chase. The increasing adoption of stablecoins for payments and the growing interest in tokenized assets and blockchain-based settlement systems present an alternative financial infrastructure that could erode the need for traditional banking services over the long term.
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For the public company JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the addressable markets for their main products and services are as follows:
- Investment Banking: The global investment banking and trading services market size is predicted to increase to approximately USD 424.07 billion in 2025.
- Commercial Banking: The market size of the Global Commercial Banks is estimated to be USD 3.9 trillion in 2025.
- Asset & Wealth Management: The global asset and wealth management market size is projected to reach USD 3.352 trillion by the end of 2025.
- Consumer & Community Banking (Retail Banking): The global retail banking market size is evaluated at USD 2.34 trillion in 2025.
- Treasury Management Services: The global Treasury Management Services market size is expected to reach USD 6.214 billion by the end of 2025.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas, according to recent earnings reports, analyst commentary, and investor presentations.
- Continued Growth in Net Interest Income (NII) and Loan Balances: JPMorgan Chase anticipates that its Net Interest Income (NII) will normalize around $90 billion, with growth resuming in the second half of 2025 as deposit balances stabilize. This growth is further supported by an expected increase in loan balances, particularly within Card Services, which is projected to drive NII higher. For 2026, the bank projects NII, excluding markets, to reach $95 billion, primarily due to anticipated balance sheet growth.
- Robust Investment Banking (IB) Fees and Capital Markets Activity: The firm has seen significant increases in Investment Banking fees, with a 31% rise in Q3 2024 and a 49% increase in Q4 2024. This momentum is expected to continue, driven by a strong pipeline and a pickup in corporate dealmaking. Analysts also suggest that a potential easing of U.S. regulatory measures could further stimulate mergers, IPOs, and overall capital markets activity, benefiting JPMorgan Chase's investment banking arm.
- Expansion in Asset & Wealth Management (AWM): Revenue growth in the Asset & Wealth Management segment is anticipated to be driven by higher management fees, strong net inflows, and elevated average market levels. JPMorgan Chase reported record long-term net inflows of $76 billion in Q4 2024, with full-year 2024 client asset net inflows totaling $486 billion. The company plans its largest-ever investment spend in AWM to foster innovation and maintain its position as a reliable growth business with a high percentage of recurring revenues.
- Customer Acquisition and Card Services within Consumer and Community Banking (CCB): JPMorgan Chase has demonstrated strong performance in customer acquisition, adding nearly 10 million new card accounts and nearly 2 million net new checking accounts in 2024. Continued loan growth in Card Services, fueled by robust consumer confidence and spending, is expected to be a significant contributor to revenue.
- Growth in Payments Revenue: Payments revenue has shown consistent growth, with double-digit fee increases for four consecutive quarters leading into Q4 2024, contributing to a record $18.1 billion in Payments revenue for the year. This growth is driven by higher deposit balances and increased fee activity, despite some offsetting pressure from deposit margin compression.
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Share Repurchases
- JPMorgan Chase repurchased $28.68 billion in common stock in 2024, $9.824 billion in 2023, and $3.162 billion in 2022.
- A new common share repurchase program of $50 billion was authorized, effective July 1, 2025.
- A $30 billion common share repurchase program was authorized effective July 1, 2024.
Share Issuance
- Net common equity issued/repurchased for 2024 was $-18.83 billion, for 2023 was $-9.824 billion, and for 2022 was $-3.162 billion, indicating net repurchases rather than issuance over these periods.
- The number of shares outstanding has consistently declined, for example, showing a 3.43% year-over-year decline by September 30, 2025, and a 2.18% decline in 2024.
Inbound Investments
- No significant large investments made in the company by third-parties have been identified over the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- JPMorgan Chase acquired First Republic Bank in May 2023.
- In March 2022, the company acquired Global Shares to enhance its equity management software offerings.
- In 2021, JPMorgan Chase made over 30 acquisitions, including fintech companies like OpenInvest and 55ip, and also acquired a majority stake in Volkswagen Payments.
Capital Expenditures
- JPMorgan Chase did not report meaningful traditional capital expenditures for the years 2020 through 2024.
- Significant investments are being made in business growth, including expanding the geographic footprint of Consumer & Community Banking, with 166 new branches built in 2023 and a similar number planned for 2024.
- The firm is investing in artificial intelligence use cases, valued between $1 billion and $1.5 billion, focused on areas such as customer personalization, trading, operational efficiencies, fraud management, and credit decisioning.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 111.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 274.6 |
| Rev LTM | 85,244 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -14,218 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -23,827 |
| CFO LTM | -14,218 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20,550 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -36.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -36.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 274.6 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 13.8 |
| P/CFO | -7.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.2% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 29.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 70,148 | 54,814 | 50,073 | 51,268 | 55,133 |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 64,353 | 48,102 | 51,749 | 49,284 | 39,265 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 19,827 | 17,748 | 16,957 | 14,240 | 13,591 |
| Corporate | 8,038 | 80 | -3,483 | -1,176 | 1,211 |
| Reconciling Items | -4,262 | -3,582 | -3,655 | -2,978 | -3,065 |
| Commercial Banking | 11,533 | 10,008 | 9,313 | 9,264 | |
| Total | 158,104 | 128,695 | 121,649 | 119,951 | 115,399 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 21,232 | 14,916 | 20,930 | 8,217 | 16,541 |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 20,272 | 14,925 | 21,134 | 17,094 | 11,954 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 5,227 | 4,365 | 4,737 | 2,992 | 2,867 |
| Corporate | 2,821 | -743 | -3,713 | -1,750 | 1,111 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Commercial Banking | 4,213 | 5,246 | 2,578 | 3,958 | |
| Total | 49,552 | 37,676 | 48,334 | 29,131 | 36,431 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 1,638,493 | 1,334,296 | 1,259,896 | 1,095,926 | 914,705 |
| Corporate | 1,348,437 | 1,328,219 | 1,518,100 | 1,359,831 | 837,618 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 642,951 | 514,085 | 500,370 | 496,705 | 541,367 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 245,512 | 232,037 | 234,425 | 203,384 | 173,175 |
| Commercial Banking | 257,106 | 230,776 | 228,911 | 220,514 | |
| Total | 3,875,393 | 3,665,743 | 3,743,567 | 3,384,757 | 2,687,379 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $302.64 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 836.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $314.57 | $294.51 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.8% | 2.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.5% | 26.0% |
| Downside Capture | 163.77 | 115.31 |
| Upside Capture | 141.22 | 111.79 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 53.7% | 73.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.36 | 1.26 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| Up Beta | 1.44 | 1.05 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 1.64 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| Up Capture | 43% | 150% | 136% | 113% | 119% | 94% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 69 | 139 | 426 |
| Down Capture | 187% | 179% | 146% | 126% | 108% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 31 | 56 | 111 | 325 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 12.4% | 26.0% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 1.3% | 19.3% | -0.05 | 85.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 73.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 70.2% | 25.2% | 2.08 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.5% | 16.8% | 0.15 | 29.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 16.6% | 0.14 | 46.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.6% | 44.7% | -0.65 | 29.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 20.0% | 24.3% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 18.7% | 0.55 | 85.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 62.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 17.0% | 1.05 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 18.9% | 0.45 | 17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 43.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 57.9% | 0.43 | 23.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 21.1% | 27.5% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.2% | 0.57 | 91.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 70.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.2% | 15.6% | 0.81 | -7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 17.6% | 0.37 | 27.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 53.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/13/2026 | -4.2% | ||
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/12/2024 | -6.5% | -7.3% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 20 |
| # Negative | 15 | 12 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.1% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -13.8% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 311.92 | 966 | 301,311 | 18,240,547 | Form |
| 2 | Bammann, Linda | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 297.94 | 9,500 | 2,830,472 | 24,493,217 | Form | |
| 3 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122025 | 267.44 | 5,201 | 1,390,972 | 61,456,017 | Form |
| 4 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052025 | 262.47 | 6,128 | 1,608,424 | 16,392,645 | Form |
| 5 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202025 | 265.71 | 6,608 | 1,755,833 | 9,703,850 | Form |
JPM Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Fortress Balance Sheet vs. Emerging Credit & Margin Cracks
BULL VIEW
Best-in-class execution, share gains (Apple Card), and a stable ~$103B NII forecast will power through any cyclical softness, proving its durable compounding thesis.
CORE TENSION
Can JPM's scale and execution (Bull) overcome decelerating returns, rising credit provisions for new ventures like the Apple Card, and structural fintech competition (Bear)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The $2.2B net reserve build for the Apple Card portfolio acquisition is a direct, quantifiable signal that management sees tangible credit risk ahead.
BEAR VIEW
A macro slowdown and fintech pressure will expose credit weaknesses and erode payment margins, causing its premium Return on Equity to mean-revert lower.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 23, 2026 | Company Update Event Watch: 2026 Expense Guidance and Net Interest Income (NII) forecast updates. Any revision to the ~$103B NII or expense outlook is critical. |
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Net Charge-Offs in Wholesale (CRE) and Consumer (Card) segments. Watch for provisions for credit losses exceeding Q4 levels. |
Next 6 Months | Antitrust Litigation Update (Normandin v. JPMorgan) Watch: Any key court ruling or announcement of a formal investigation by the Department of Justice regarding prime rate fixing allegations. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-18 | Investor Day Timing Announcement Details: JPMorgan announced it would provide a 'Company Update' on February 23, 2026, setting expectations for a key strategic update. | Flat (0.47%) $308.84 -> $310.31 |
2025-10-14 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: JPM reported a strong beat with CIB revenue up 17% YoY and IB fees up 16%. Despite strong results, the stock pulled back amid broader market weakness. | Slight -1.91% pullback $306.58 -> $300.72 |
2025-11-19 | Affordable Housing Initiative Details: Announced over $40 million in new philanthropic funding to help increase housing supply, extending its commitment to affordable housing. | Modest 1.29% gain $298.06 -> $301.90 |
2025-12-11 | Executive Order on Proxy Advisors Details: An Executive Order was issued scrutinizing proxy advisors like ISS and Glass Lewis, a positive development for JPM which was planning its own AI-based solution. | Rose significantly by 2.34% $308.71 -> $315.95 |
2026-01-07 | Apple Card Acquisition & AI 'Proxy IQ' Announcement Details: Announced it will become the new issuer for the Apple Card, taking over from Goldman Sachs. Also announced a shift to an in-house AI platform for proxy voting. | Fell notably by -2.28% $334.61 -> $326.99 |
2026-01-13 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: JPM beat EPS and revenue estimates, but the stock fell on higher-than-expected 2026 expense guidance and a large $2.2B credit loss provision for the Apple Card portfolio. | Fell notably by -4.19% $324.49 -> $310.90 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock's volatility is spiking (3M at 27% vs 1Y at 26%), signaling rising near-term risk. This, combined with our calculated Bearish sentiment, makes this a 'Knife Catch' scenario, mandating a Conservative sizing despite the widening moat.
Diversification Alternatives
MS
INDUSTRYMorgan Stanley offers a purer play on the high-margin wealth and asset management theme, which is JPM's key growth driver, but with less exposure to consumer credit risk.
BAC
INDUSTRYWhile a lower-quality operator than JPM, Bank of America offers a cheaper valuation and potentially higher torque to a positive macro inflection, given its greater consumer sensitivity.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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