Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Market Price (3/2/2026): $248.51 | Market Cap: $598.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Market Price (3/2/2026): $248.51Market Cap: $598.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -0.2% | Key risksJNJ key risks include [1] massive financial and reputational damage from tens of thousands of unresolved talcum powder lawsuits, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 25 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 25 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -0.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Key risksJNJ key risks include [1] massive financial and reputational damage from tens of thousands of unresolved talcum powder lawsuits, Show more. |
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.7% change in JNJ stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 205.83 | 248.43 | 20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 92,149 | 94,193 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 28.5% | 4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 22.3 | 13.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,408 | 2,408 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | -17.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.6% | 38.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.9% change in JNJ stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 175.12 | 248.43 | 41.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,627 | 94,193 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.0% | 28.5% | 13.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 22.3 | 20.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,406 | 2,408 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 41.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | -10.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.1% | 41.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.7% change in JNJ stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 160.55 | 248.43 | 54.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88,821 | 94,193 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.8% | 28.5% | 79.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 22.3 | -18.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,407 | 2,408 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 54.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 5.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.0% | 53.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 77.2% change in JNJ stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.16 | 248.43 | 77.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 87,381 | 94,193 | 7.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 28.5% | 38.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.4 | 22.3 | 9.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,614 | 2,408 | 8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 77.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.6% | 5.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 31.8% | 53.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JNJ Return | 11% | 6% | -9% | -5% | 47% | 18% | 79% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 15% | 6% | 9% | 22% | 4% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JNJ Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 83% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 48% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JNJ Max Drawdown | -2% | -7% | -16% | -7% | -2% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -15% | -19% | -5% | -13% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PFE, MRK, LLY, ABBV, MDT. See JNJ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JNJ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 705 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 597 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,319 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PFE, MRK, LLY, ABBV, MDT
In The Past
Johnson & Johnson's stock fell -21.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/25/2022. A -21.7% loss requires a 27.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
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- Like Pfizer combined with Procter & Gamble.
- The General Electric of healthcare.
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- Oncology Treatments: Pharmaceuticals developed to treat various cancers, including multiple myeloma, prostate cancer, and blood cancers.
- Immunology Therapies: Biologic medications used to treat autoimmune diseases such as psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis.
- Neuroscience Medicines: Drugs addressing a range of neurological and psychiatric conditions, including major depressive disorder and schizophrenia.
- Cardiovascular & Metabolic Drugs: Medications for cardiovascular diseases, thrombosis, and metabolic disorders like type 2 diabetes.
- Pulmonary Hypertension Therapies: Specialized treatments for patients suffering from pulmonary arterial hypertension, a rare and progressive lung disease.
- Surgical Technologies: Advanced instruments, devices, and digital solutions used across various surgical specialties, including general surgery, bariatric, and gynecological procedures.
- Orthopaedic Solutions: Implants and instruments for joint reconstruction (hips, knees), trauma care, spine surgery, and sports medicine.
- Interventional Medical Devices: Products such as stents, catheters, and embolization devices used in minimally invasive procedures for cardiovascular and neurovascular conditions.
- Vision Care Products: A portfolio primarily consisting of ACUVUE® brand contact lenses and surgical products for improving eye health.
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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individual consumers. These customer companies then distribute, resell, or utilize JNJ's products within the healthcare system or directly to the end-user.
Its major customer categories and specific customer companies include:
-
Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Wholesale Distributors: These companies purchase JNJ's prescription medicines, medical devices, and other healthcare products in large volumes and distribute them to pharmacies, hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare providers.
- McKesson Corporation (Symbol: MCK)
- Cencora (formerly AmerisourceBergen Corporation) (Symbol: COR)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (Symbol: CAH)
-
Retailers and Pharmacy Chains: These companies purchase JNJ's consumer health products (e.g., Tylenol, Band-Aid, Neutrogena, Listerine) and some over-the-counter medicines for direct resale to the end-consumer.
- CVS Health Corporation (Symbol: CVS)
- Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (Symbol: WBA)
- Walmart Inc. (Symbol: WMT)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (Symbol: AMZN)
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- United Parcel Service (UPS)
- FedEx Corporation (FDX)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Joaquin Duato, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Joaquin Duato joined Johnson & Johnson in 1989, starting with Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Spain. Throughout his more than three-decade tenure, he has held various leadership positions within the company across different sectors, geographies, and functions. In 2011, he was appointed Executive Vice President and Worldwide Chairman of Pharmaceuticals, where he played a pivotal role in turning around the struggling pharmaceutical business. Prior to becoming CEO, Duato served as Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee, providing strategic direction for the Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Health sectors and overseeing Information Technology and Global Supply Chain operations. He assumed the role of CEO in January 2022 and became Chairman in January 2023. Duato also oversaw the separation of Johnson & Johnson's consumer health segment, now known as Kenvue.
Joseph J. Wolk, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Joseph J. Wolk joined Johnson & Johnson in 2008. He has held numerous finance leadership roles within the company, including Vice President of Finance for J&J Innovative Medicine, Vice President of Finance for MedTech's Global Supply Chain, and Vice President of Investor Relations. Wolk was appointed Chief Financial Officer in 2018. His family has a long history with Johnson & Johnson, with his father, uncle, and aunt also having worked at the company.
Vanessa Broadhurst, Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Affairs
Vanessa Broadhurst serves as the Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Affairs at Johnson & Johnson. Before this role, she was the company group chairman of global commercial strategy for pharmaceuticals and also served as president of Johnson & Johnson's North America pharma unit, Janssen.
Elizabeth Forminard, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer
Elizabeth Forminard holds the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer at Johnson & Johnson.
Kristen Mulholland, Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer
Kristen Mulholland is the Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer for Johnson & Johnson.
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The key risks to Johnson & Johnson's business include:
-
Talcum Powder Lawsuits
Johnson & Johnson faces tens of thousands of ongoing lawsuits related to its talc-based products, with allegations that they caused ovarian cancer and mesothelioma. The company has faced billions of dollars in verdicts and settlements, including a nearly $1 billion jury verdict in October 2025. Multiple attempts by J&J to resolve these claims through bankruptcy proceedings have been rejected by judges, indicating that the litigation is likely to continue in court. These lawsuits represent a significant financial burden, with legal expenses consuming a notable portion of annual net income, and pose a risk of brand erosion. -
Biosimilar Competition and Patent Expirations
The company is experiencing significant revenue declines due to biosimilar competition for its blockbuster drugs. Notably, Stelara's sales saw a dramatic year-over-year decline in Q1 2025 following its patent expiration in September 2023, with eight biosimilars launching in the U.S. market. Remicade has also faced biosimilar competition for several years, leading to reduced sales. This competitive pressure is expected to continue impacting J&J's pharmaceutical revenues. -
Regulatory Scrutiny and Drug Pricing Pressures
Johnson & Johnson faces broader regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning product safety, as evidenced by the ongoing issues surrounding talc. Additionally, the company is subject to increasing pressures to lower drug prices, including the Inflation Reduction Act's Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, which mandates a significant price cut for Stelara starting in 2026. Potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals also pose a risk of disrupting supply chains and increasing operational expenses.
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The widespread and expanding efficacy of GLP-1 agonist drugs, such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound, primarily from competitors like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. These drugs are demonstrating benefits beyond their initial indications for diabetes and obesity, showing positive outcomes in areas like cardiovascular disease, sleep apnea, and potentially other conditions. Johnson & Johnson does not currently possess a leading drug in this class. This trend poses an emerging threat by potentially disrupting JNJ's pharmaceutical pipeline in various therapeutic areas and, in the longer term, could reduce demand for certain MedTech products (e.g., orthopedic implants related to obesity-induced arthritis, bariatric surgery devices) if the prevalence of obesity-related comorbidities significantly declines.
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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates in various addressable markets primarily through its Pharmaceutical (Innovative Medicine) and MedTech segments. The addressable market sizes for their main products and services are outlined below, with regional clarifications where available:
Pharmaceuticals (Innovative Medicine)
- Immunology: The global immunology market size was valued at USD 108.40 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach approximately USD 286.38 billion by 2034. In the U.S., the immunology market was valued at USD 43.09 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 114.60 billion by 2034.
- Oncology (Drugs): The global oncology market size was calculated at USD 225.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 600.97 billion by 2034. The U.S. oncology market size was valued at USD 72.79 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 211.78 billion by 2034.
- Neuroscience: The global neuroscience market size was valued at USD 46.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 77.93 billion by 2033. North America led the global neuroscience market with a market share of more than 35% in 2024.
- Cardiovascular Drugs: The global cardiovascular drugs market size was approximately USD 149.99 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to hit around USD 214.72 billion by 2034.
MedTech
- Orthopedics: The global orthopedic market grew to USD 61.9 billion worldwide in 2024. North America held the largest revenue share of the orthopedic devices market at 47% in 2024. The U.S. is expected to dominate the global orthopedic devices market with a share of 93.8% within the North America region.
- Surgery (Devices): The global general surgery devices market is projected to reach USD 29.9 billion by 2030. The global minimally invasive surgery market size was valued at USD 47.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 89.86 billion by 2032.
- Cardiovascular Devices: The global cardiovascular devices market size was USD 61.39 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 117.68 billion by 2032. North America dominated the cardiovascular devices market with a 52.24% share in 2023.
- Vision Care: The global vision care market size was valued at USD 68.1 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 70.65 billion in 2024 to USD 94.85 billion by 2032. North America currently dominates the market, holding a market share of over 45.6% in 2024.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) over the next 2-3 years:- Robust Innovative Medicine Pipeline and Recently Launched Products: Johnson & Johnson's Innovative Medicine segment is a primary driver of future revenue growth, with an anticipated operational sales growth of 5-7% from 2025-2030. This growth is expected to be fueled by a strong pipeline projected to deliver more than 20 novel therapies and over 50 product expansions by 2030. Key in-market brands like Darzalex, Erleada, Tremfya, and Spravato continue to perform strongly. Additionally, recently launched oncology drugs such as Carvykti, Tecvayli, Talvey, and Rybrevant/Lazcluze are expected to contribute significantly to sales. The company remains confident in its ability to grow the Innovative Medicine segment despite the loss of exclusivity for Stelara.
- Expansion in High-Growth MedTech Markets and New Product Introduction: The MedTech segment is forecast to achieve operational sales growth in the upper range of its markets, projected at 5-7% through 2027. This expansion is driven by a strategic focus on high-growth areas including interventional cardiovascular, robotics, and digital surgery. A significant portion of this growth, approximately one-third of 2027 sales, is expected to come from new products. Innovations like the Velys robotic system and the Ottava multi-port surgical robotic system are key to this strategy.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Business Development: Johnson & Johnson actively pursues strategic acquisitions and licensing agreements to bolster its portfolio and expand market reach. For example, the acquisitions of Abiomed and Shockwave Medical have significantly strengthened the company's position in the high-growth cardiovascular intervention market. These targeted acquisitions contribute to inorganic growth and help offset potential revenue declines from patent expirations.
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Share Repurchases
- In September 2022, Johnson & Johnson's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $5 billion of common stock.
- The company executed annual share buybacks of $11.089 billion in 2023 and $2.432 billion in 2024.
- During the first quarter of 2025, Johnson & Johnson repurchased $2.127 billion in common stock.
Share Issuance
- The initial public offering (IPO) of Kenvue in May 2023, where Johnson & Johnson retained a controlling stake of approximately 91%, contributed to a net reduction in J&J shares outstanding following an exchange offer.
- As of April 18, 2025, Johnson & Johnson had 2,406,073,279 shares of Common Stock outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- Johnson & Johnson made several significant acquisitions, including Momenta Pharmaceuticals for $6.5 billion in 2020, Abiomed for $16.6 billion in 2022, and Shockwave Medical for $13.1 billion in 2024.
- In 2025, the company acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion, enhancing its neuroscience portfolio.
- Since January 2024, Johnson & Johnson has invested approximately $50 billion in research and development and other inorganic growth opportunities.
Capital Expenditures
- Johnson & Johnson's capital expenditures averaged $3.61 billion from fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2024, peaking at $4.243 billion in December 2024.
- The company plans to invest over $55 billion in the United States over the next four years (starting from March 2025), representing a 25% increase compared to the prior four years.
- These investments include constructing four new manufacturing plants and expanding existing sites, with a primary focus on manufacturing, research and development, and technology capabilities within its Innovative Medicine and MedTech businesses, such as a new $2 billion+ biologics manufacturing facility in North Carolina.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to JNJ.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 04302024 | JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 12.5% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 177.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 358.9 |
| Rev LTM | 63,898 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21,100 |
| FCF LTM | 11,368 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,063 |
| CFO LTM | 16,642 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,555 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 358.9 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 24.7 |
| P/CFO | 20.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $248.43 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 598.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $222.86 | $185.73 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.5% | 33.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| Downside Capture | -80.65 | -20.92 |
| Upside Capture | 42.94 | 26.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -14.2% | 6.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.45 | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.14 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Up Beta | 0.32 | -0.39 | -0.18 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Down Beta | -0.90 | -0.24 | -0.44 | -0.23 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Up Capture | 9% | 41% | 41% | 31% | 18% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 34 | 72 | 145 | 407 |
| Down Capture | -130% | -139% | -92% | -92% | -33% | -25% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 15 | 27 | 52 | 106 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JNJ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 56.9% | 19.0% | 2.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.9% | 17.4% | 0.38 | 53.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 6.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | -2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 30.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.0% | 44.9% | -0.42 | -7.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JNJ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 12.1% | 16.7% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.7% | 14.5% | 0.41 | 58.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 20.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | -1.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 57.0% | 0.29 | 2.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JNJ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 12.1% | 18.3% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.1% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 68.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 44.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/21/2026 | -0.1% | 2.9% | 13.2% |
| 10/14/2025 | -0.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 7/16/2025 | 6.2% | 8.2% | 12.4% |
| 4/15/2025 | -0.5% | 2.2% | -5.2% |
| 1/22/2025 | -1.9% | 1.5% | 8.6% |
| 10/15/2024 | 1.5% | 0.8% | -5.5% |
| 7/17/2024 | 3.7% | 0.9% | 4.9% |
| 4/16/2024 | -2.1% | 1.0% | 2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 17 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -2.8% | -5.0% | -6.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morikis, John G | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 206.15 | 1,250 | 257,688 | 381,070 | Form | |
| 2 | Reed, John C | EVP, Innovative Medicine, R&D | Direct | Sell | 10202025 | 192.71 | 21,721 | 4,185,793 | 2,053,873 | Form |
| 3 | Taubert, Jennifer L | EVP, WWC. Innovative Medicine | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 177.81 | 56,471 | 10,040,883 | 31,651,780 | Form |
| 4 | Duato, Joaquin | CEO and Chairman of the Board | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 179.21 | 125,824 | 22,548,655 | 49,455,467 | Form |
| 5 | Wolk, Joseph J | Exec VP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 176.91 | 16,820 | 2,975,571 | 2,476,694 | Form |
JNJ Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.59x places the stock in the 'Buyable' tier. The investment thesis is supported by strong, accelerating operational momentum in its core growth division which outweighs the known patent cliff. While the talc litigation risk is significant and caps the upside, the 60% probability assigned to the bull case (driven by a strong sector trend) creates a favorable, albeit not high-conviction, risk-reward profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowJohnson & Johnson is a large, established company with strong free cash flow, a consistent dividend, and best-in-class margins. Its growth is steady but moderate (guiding to 5-7% CAGR), and the primary challenge is defending its existing revenue base against patent cliffs, fitting the 'Mature Cash Cow' focus on capital efficiency and pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on the accelerating, volume-led growth of the high-margin Innovative Medicine portfolio (led by Darzalex, Carvykti, Tremfya) being potent enough to absorb the significant revenue headwind from the Stelara biosimilar erosion and still drive overall corporate growth and margin stability.
- Innovative Medicine operational sales growth accelerated to 7.9% in Q4 2025, successfully offsetting an 1,110 basis point negative impact from Stelara.
- Company guidance for FY2026 is $100.0B - $101.0B, representing 6.2% - 7.2% YoY growth, an acceleration from the FY2025 growth rate.
- Key growth drivers are posting strong results: Darzalex sales grew ~20% YoY, Carvykti sales nearly doubled, and Tremfya grew ~17% YoY in 2024.
- Management has identified 10+ potential assets in the pipeline with >$5B peak sales potential to sustain long-term growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction on the stock is the unquantified and potentially massive financial liability from over 67,000 talc-related lawsuits. Multiple failed attempts to resolve this via bankruptcy push the company into costly and unpredictable jury trials, creating a significant sentiment overhang and the risk of a material impact to cash flow that is not fully provisioned for.
- J&J's third attempt to resolve the litigation via a subsidiary's bankruptcy was dismissed in March 2025, forcing a return to individual jury trials.
- The current MDL docket contains over 67,000 plaintiffs, representing a massive potential liability.
- The historical precedent of Bayer/Monsanto's Roundup litigation demonstrates how unresolved mass tort cases can depress shareholder value for a decade.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Innovative Medicine Operational Sales Growth (YoY) | Consistently > 7.5% | This is the core metric for the Alpha Driver. Growth above this level confirms the new portfolio is successfully overpowering the Stelara headwind and that the growth story is accelerating. |
| Stelara Sales (YoY % Decline) | Decline not to exceed -60% | While a steep decline is expected, an erosion rate significantly worse than the ~50% seen in late 2025 would indicate steeper-than-modeled competition and could put full-year guidance at risk. |
| Talc Litigation Newsflow / Reserve Changes | Any single verdict >$1B or total settlement fund proposal >$15B | This monitors the primary Anti-Alpha risk. A major adverse event would signal that the current financial reserves are inadequate and could trigger a material de-rating of the stock. |
The Great Rebasing: Can the New Portfolio Outrun the Stelara Patent Cliff?
BULL VIEW
Strong growth in Darzalex, Carvykti, and Tremfya, plus a deep pipeline, will overwhelm the Stelara headwind, leading to re-accelerated growth and a higher multiple in 2026.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating growth from the innovative pipeline (Oncology, MedTech) fully offset the material revenue erosion from Stelara's loss of exclusivity and absorb major litigation/regulatory risks?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Innovative Medicine operational growth of 7.9% in Q4 2025 accelerated despite an 1,110 basis point negative impact from Stelara, showing the new portfolio's strength is winning on an operational level.
BEAR VIEW
The ~50% decline in the ~$10B Stelara franchise, combined with unquantified talc liability and IRA margin pressure, creates an insurmountable drag on growth and sentiment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Stelara worldwide sales decline rate (versus ~50% in Q4). |
May-June 2026 | ASCO/EHA Medical Conferences Watch: Pivotal data readouts for key pipeline assets, particularly the oral psoriasis drug icotrokinra. |
Anytime | Bellwether Talc Trial Verdict Watch: Size of jury verdict in a major talc trial. |
This Quarter (Feb-Apr 2026) | Peer MedTech Earnings (HCA, ISRG) Watch: Hospital capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2025 | Company Announces Q3 Earnings Call Date Details: JNJ scheduled its Q3 2025 earnings call for October 14, setting the timeline for the next major financial data release for investors. | Muted (0.4%) $176.87 -> $177.63 |
Oct 28, 2025 | Reaches 6-Month Low Details: Amid broader market concerns and the ongoing patent cliff narrative for Stelara, the stock hit its lowest point in the six-month period prior to analysis. | Slight -1.8% pullback $189.09 -> $185.75 |
Oct 14, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: JNJ reported solid Q3 results with 6.8% sales growth and raised its full-year 2025 sales outlook, demonstrating strong business momentum heading into year-end. | Flat (0.2%) $189.64 -> $189.96 |
Nov 17, 2025 | Acquisition of Halda Therapeutics Details: JNJ announced the acquisition of Halda Therapeutics to enhance its oncology pipeline, specifically targeting prostate cancer with a novel oral therapy platform. | Changed Little (0.8%) $198.32 -> $200.00 |
Dec 16, 2025 | FDA Proactively Awards Priority Review Voucher Details: The FDA awarded JNJ a 'national priority' review voucher for its Tecvayli and Darzalex combination therapy in multiple myeloma, signaling strong regulatory confidence in the asset. | Muted (0.5%) $209.30 -> $210.33 |
Jan 21, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Details: Reported strong 7.1% revenue growth and provided 2026 guidance above consensus, but stock was flat as the in-line adjusted EPS suggests high expectations were already priced in. | Flat (0.2%) $218.01 -> $218.49 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades in a Stable Volatility regime. The Neutral sentiment reflects a deadlock between strong new product growth and material patent cliff/litigation headwinds. This balance of quality and risk warrants a standard allocation, not an aggressive one.
Diversification Alternatives
INVA
INDUSTRYSimpler model focused on royalty streams and a specialty commercial platform avoids JNJ's massive R&D execution risk, offering a cleaner thesis.
RMD
SECTORA pure-play leader in the sleep/respiratory market, RMD is completely insulated from the pharmaceutical patent cliffs and IRA pricing risks that are central to the JNJ bear case.
Trading at a forward P/E of ~21.3x, Johnson & Johnson is being valued as a stable healthcare giant successfully managing a major patent cliff (Stelara, ~$10.4B in 2024 to $6.1B in 2025) by accelerating a new portfolio of blockbusters (Darzalex, $14.4B; Tremfya, $5.2B) to transition its growth engine.
Filter all news through the lens of the post-Stelara growth transition: does this news accelerate the new portfolio's ability to exceed the revenue lost from the patent cliff?
Quarterly revenue from Darzalex, Tremfya, Carvykti, and Spravato showing aggregate YoY growth >$1.5B; Positive clinical trial data for pipeline assets in late-stage oncology or immunology; MedTech segment operational growth accelerating above 6%; Meaningful positive updates or resolution on talc litigation.
Slowing growth in key products Darzalex or Tremfya; Clinical trial failures for key late-stage pipeline assets; Widespread pricing pressure on the immunology or oncology portfolios due to policy changes; Larger-than-expected financial impact from talc litigation settlements.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in MedTech procedure volumes; Competitor drug approvals that don't directly compete with J&J's core growth assets; Early-stage pipeline announcements (Phase 1); General market commentary on the pharmaceutical sector without specific J&J impact.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's repricing depends on the successful revenue replacement of Stelara ($6.1B in 2025, down from $10.4B in 2024). The key catalyst is the continued >20% growth of oncology drug Darzalex ($14.4B in 2025) and >40% growth of immunology drug Tremfya ($5.2B in 2025), which together must add over $4B in new revenue annually to offset the decline and drive net growth.
Innovative Medicine (Pharmaceuticals)
$60.4B TTM (64.1% of Total) · 36.9% MarginWhat It Is
Blockbuster drugs including Darzalex (multiple myeloma), Stelara & Tremfya (immunology), Erleada (prostate cancer), and Carvykti (cell therapy).
Who Pays & How
Governments and private health insurers pay for clinically differentiated, patent-protected drugs that are the standard of care. For example, Darzalex ($14.35B in 2025 sales) is a cornerstone of multiple myeloma treatment protocols.
Competition
MedTech (Medical Devices)
$33.8B TTM (35.9% of Total) · 12.2% MarginWhat It Is
Surgical instruments (Ethicon), orthopaedic implants for hips and knees (DePuy Synthes), vision products including contact lenses (Acuvue), and cardiovascular devices (Abiomed, Biosense Webster).
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and surgical centers pay for devices that improve patient outcomes, reduce procedure times, and are trusted by surgeons. Brand loyalty and surgeon training create sticky relationships.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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