Johnson Controls International (JCI)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $119.49 | Market Cap: $75.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Johnson Controls International (JCI)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $119.49Market Cap: $75.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 54x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | Key risksJCI key risks include [1] operational disruption and margin pressure from its major internal overhaul and restructuring, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 54x |
| Key risksJCI key risks include [1] operational disruption and margin pressure from its major internal overhaul and restructuring, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 12.2% stock movement for Johnson Controls International (JCI) during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Optimistic Fiscal 2026 Guidance. Johnson Controls reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.26 for Q4 FY25, surpassing analysts' consensus estimate of $1.20, and sales increased 3% to $6.4 billion, exceeding the $6.33 billion consensus. The company also provided a positive outlook for fiscal year 2026, anticipating approximately 3% organic sales growth for Q1 and adjusted EPS around $4.55 per share for the full year, projecting over 20% growth. This strong financial performance and confident future projections likely fueled investor confidence.
2. Strategic Divestiture and Significant Share Repurchase Program. Johnson Controls completed the sale of its Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business for approximately $6.9 billion in August 2025. This strategic move was accompanied by significant capital allocation, including accelerated share repurchase transactions totaling $5.0 billion, with an initial delivery of 43.1 million shares received in August. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased shares worth approximately $5.99 billion. These actions demonstrate a commitment to streamlining operations and returning value to shareholders.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JCI Return | 18% | 77% | -19% | -8% | 40% | 51% | 229% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 15% | -3% | 28% | 36% | 7% | 160% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JCI Win Rate | 75% | 92% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 68% | 42% | 50% | 62% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JCI Max Drawdown | -42% | -1% | -42% | -23% | -9% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -5% | -27% | -11% | -6% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HON, TT, EMR, CMI, LII. See JCI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 846 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,212 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HON, TT, EMR, CMI, LII
In The Past
Johnson Controls International's stock fell -43.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -43.1% loss requires a 75.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Johnson Controls International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 294.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.1 |
| Rev LTM | 22,324 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,642 |
| FCF LTM | 2,405 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,773 |
| CFO LTM | 3,017 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,566 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.1 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 19.4 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 24.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 105.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA022388 | ACUVUE THERAVISION WITH KETOTIFEN | ketotifen fumarate | drug-eluting contact lens | 2252022 | -15.9% | -15.5% | -2.0% | -6.1% | 98.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Products & Systems | 15,967 | ||||
| Services | 6,985 | ||||
| Building Solutions Asia Pacific | 2,746 | 2,714 | 2,616 | 2,403 | |
| Building Solutions Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America (EMEA/LA) | 4,096 | 3,845 | 3,884 | 3,440 | |
| Building Solutions North America | 10,330 | 9,367 | 8,685 | 8,605 | |
| Global Products | 5,159 | 9,373 | 8,483 | 7,869 | |
| Total | 22,952 | 22,331 | 25,299 | 23,668 | 22,317 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 8.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.4% | -4.5% | -2.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.1% | 8.2% | 15.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | 11.3% | 15.4% | 4.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 8.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -1.5% | -1.3% | 0.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.1% | -0.9% | 10.0% |
| 12/12/2023 | -6.0% | -4.7% | 2.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -4.6% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.3% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -17.3% | -15.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1302024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12142023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11152022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
