Insteel Industries (IIIN)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $31.83 | Market Cap: $620.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Insteel Industries (IIIN)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $31.83Market Cap: $620.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Key risksIIIN key risks include [1] cyclical construction demand for its concrete reinforcing products, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.9% |
| Key risksIIIN key risks include [1] cyclical construction demand for its concrete reinforcing products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IIIN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual stock movement data and the specific reasons for a -14.5% decline in that future period are not available. However, based on recent information and reported Q4 2025 earnings which concluded on September 27, 2025, several factors could influence Insteel Industries' stock performance around and after that period. Here are some key points that could be associated with a potential stock movement, drawing from available information for the approximate period: 1. 1. Insteel Industries missed Q4 2025 earnings and revenue forecasts. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74, falling short of the projected $0.79, and revenue of $177.4 million, missing the expected $180.97 million. This led to a pre-market stock decline of 3.81% on October 16, 2025, with shares trading down 17% from the previous close. 2. 2. Despite missing forecasts, Insteel Industries showed strong year-over-year growth in net earnings and gross profit for Q4 2025. Net earnings rose to $14.6 million from $4.7 million in the prior year, and gross profit increased to $28.6 million with a 700 basis point expansion in gross margin to 16.1%. However, the miss on market expectations still impacted investor sentiment. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IIIN Return | 11% | 88% | -26% | 50% | -27% | 26% | 116% |
| Peers Return | 41% | 55% | -11% | 62% | 9% | 13% | 286% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IIIN Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 25% | 58% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 63% | 43% | 63% | 55% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IIIN Max Drawdown | -49% | 0% | -37% | -4% | -30% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -3% | -37% | -8% | -12% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, TT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IIIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 847 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 374.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,869 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, TT
In The Past
Insteel Industries's stock fell -47.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -47.4% loss requires a 90.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IIIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Insteel Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 120.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,753 |
| Op Inc LTM | 451 |
| FCF LTM | 324 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 410 |
| CFO LTM | 465 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 540 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 27.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/16/2025 | -19.2% | -17.1% | -14.0% |
| 7/17/2025 | -6.3% | -2.5% | -3.3% |
| 4/17/2025 | 13.8% | 24.1% | 39.7% |
| 1/16/2025 | 3.7% | 16.7% | 25.6% |
| 10/17/2024 | -4.9% | -3.6% | 2.3% |
| 7/18/2024 | 2.9% | -0.2% | 0.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -6.6% | -7.1% |
| 1/18/2024 | -5.3% | -7.2% | 0.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -3.5% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.0% | 24.1% | 39.7% |
| Max Negative | -19.2% | -23.0% | -20.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-K 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7172025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4172025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1162025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-K 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7182024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1182024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1192023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-K 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1202022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | York James R. | Senior Vice President | 8282025 | Sell | 38.50 | 3,000 | 115,500 | 363,556 | Form |
| 1 | Wagner Richard | Senior Vice President and COO | 8262025 | Sell | 38.42 | 4,366 | 167,742 | 1,562,157 | Form |
| 2 | Wagner Richard | Senior Vice President and COO | 1232025 | Buy | 28.57 | 21 | 600 | 1,205,054 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |