Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.33 | Market Cap: $95.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.33Market Cap: $95.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -134%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -154 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -572% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.09 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -499%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -499% | ||
| Key risksZNTL key risks include [1] its near-total dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its single lead candidate, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -134%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.09 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -154 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -572% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -499%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -499% |
| Key risksZNTL key risks include [1] its near-total dependence on the clinical and regulatory success of its single lead candidate, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ZNTL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL) stock moved by -20.7% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. The market continued to undervalue Zentalis Pharmaceuticals' pipeline, viewing it as a liability rather than an asset throughout 2025. This market disinterest contributed to a substantial, though risky, potential for upside that has yet to materialize.
2. There is a perceived lack of near-term catalysts due to long timelines for key clinical data readouts. Top-line data from the DENALI trial is anticipated by the end of 2026, suggesting the company is in a holding pattern for the foreseeable future, with no significant catalysts expected for almost another year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ZNTL Return | � | 62% | -76% | -25% | -80% | -54% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -54% | -62% | 96% | -27% | 87% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ZNTL Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 35% | 32% | 48% | 42% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ZNTL Max Drawdown | � | -31% | -79% | -51% | -82% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -62% | -75% | -53% | -54% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APRE, PRLD, OLMA, ARVN, TGTX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ZNTL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -88.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 761.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -88.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -88.4% loss requires a 761.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Earnings Notes | ||
| Is Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ZNTL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Zentalis Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 19 |
| Op Inc LTM | -112 |
| FCF LTM | -117 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -106 |
| CFO LTM | -117 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -105 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 97.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 656.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 92.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -302.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -75.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 33.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -301.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -87.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -302.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -87.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| P/EBIT | 19.8 |
| P/E | -0.9 |
| P/CFO | -1.5 |
| Total Yield | -59.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -17.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -64.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -131.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 9.8% |
| 3/26/2025 | 1.7% | -23.0% | -18.8% |
| 8/9/2024 | -9.4% | -3.3% | -8.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.0% | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| 2/27/2024 | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| 11/6/2023 | -30.2% | -45.0% | -34.8% |
| 8/9/2023 | 0.7% | 8.8% | -1.4% |
| 5/10/2023 | 6.9% | 21.3% | 6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -8.7% | -13.2% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 21.3% | 40.1% |
| Max Negative | -30.2% | -45.0% | -34.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |