Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $293.26 | Market Cap: $68.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $293.26Market Cap: $68.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil | Key risksHLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Key risksHLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HLT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Hilton Worldwide's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Hilton reported strong financial results, surpassing analyst expectations for both Q2 and Q3 2025. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $2.20 against an anticipated $2.05 for Q2 2025. For Q3 2025, Hilton reported an adjusted EPS of $2.11, exceeding the analyst estimate of $2.08, and revenue of $3.12 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $3.04 billion. Management and franchise fee revenues also saw an increase of 5.3% in Q3 2025.
2. The company demonstrated robust unit growth and a strong development pipeline. As of September 30, 2025, Hilton's development pipeline reached a record 515,400 rooms, representing a 5% year-over-year growth, with 6.5% net unit growth in Q3 2025. This expansion signals continued optimism for future growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLT Return | 0% | 40% | -19% | 45% | 36% | 17% | 163% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 35% | -13% | 28% | 19% | -6% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 58% | 40% | 57% | 58% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLT Max Drawdown | -49% | -11% | -30% | -1% | -2% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -8% | -24% | -4% | -9% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 496 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 120 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hilton Worldwide
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 130.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,426 |
| Op Inc LTM | 700 |
| FCF LTM | 482 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 610 |
| CFO LTM | 824 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,006 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.2 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 17.5 |
| P/CFO | 22.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other revenues from managed and franchised properties | 5,827 | 5,037 | |||
| Management and franchise | 3,055 | 2,619 | 1,809 | 1,138 | 2,315 |
| Ownership | 1,244 | 1,076 | 598 | 421 | 1,422 |
| Other revenues | 178 | 102 | 79 | 73 | 101 |
| Intersegment fees elimination | -26 | -23 | -10 | -3 | -43 |
| Amortization of contract acquisition costs | -43 | -38 | -32 | -29 | -29 |
| Direct reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,503 | 1,375 | 3,110 | ||
| Indirect reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,841 | 1,332 | 2,576 | ||
| Total | 10,235 | 8,773 | 5,788 | 4,307 | 9,452 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 3.4% | -1.9% | 0.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | -2.6% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.9% | 6.0% | -4.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -1.9% | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.7% | -0.9% | 4.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | 3.9% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.0% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.3% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 15.0% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -14.2% | -27.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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