HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $2.845 | Market Cap: $649.1 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $2.845Market Cap: $649.1 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Renewable Energy Adoption for Digital Infrastructure. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -105% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 146% | ||
| Key risksHIVE key risks include [1] substantial shareholder dilution from its perpetual need for equity financing and [2] an unproven pivot into AI that is challenged by a lack of scale, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Renewable Energy Adoption for Digital Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -105% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 146% |
| Key risksHIVE key risks include [1] substantial shareholder dilution from its perpetual need for equity financing and [2] an unproven pivot into AI that is challenged by a lack of scale, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HIVE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. **Bearish Cryptocurrency Market Downturn and Volatility**
The overall cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn in late 2025, with its total market capitalization falling to an eight-month low by December, and Bitcoin's price dropping sharply from October highs, intensifying pessimism among traders. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index entered "extreme fear" territory, remaining below 30 since early November, indicating a widespread risk-off sentiment that likely impacted HIVE Digital Technologies' stock.
2. **Lingering Impact of Underperforming Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings**
While released in June 2025, the fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report highlighted a 15.4% year-over-year decline in revenue, despite higher Bitcoin prices, and a net loss of $0.34 per share, primarily due to the Bitcoin halving and rising network difficulty. The sentiment from this "underwhelming" performance, coupled with a recommendation to "continue to avoid" the stock by analysts in late June 2025, likely carried into the requested period and contributed to negative investor sentiment.
3. **Sustained Margin Pressure from Bitcoin Halving and Network Difficulty**
The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 continuously exerted pressure on miner rewards and gross operating margins throughout 2025. This structural change in mining economics, leading to reduced profitability per Bitcoin mined, remained a significant headwind for HIVE and other cryptocurrency miners.
4. **Analyst Price Target Reduction**
In November 2025, B. Riley's Nick Giles cut HIVE Digital's price target from $8 to $7, despite maintaining a "Buy" rating. This reduction in the price target by an analyst could signal a revised, more cautious outlook on the company's future growth or valuation, potentially influencing investor decisions negatively.
5. **Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds and "Risk-Off" Sentiment**
Global markets faced a complex environment of macroeconomic pressures in late 2025, including resurgent inflation worries, and increased global trade tensions. This created a "risk-off" sentiment among investors, leading to withdrawals from more volatile assets, such as cryptocurrency-related stocks like HIVE Digital Technologies.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HIVE Return | 2489% | 40% | -89% | 215% | -37% | -6% | 632% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 20% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HIVE Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HIVE Max Drawdown | 0% | -5% | -89% | 0% | -50% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MARA, RIOT, CLSK, CORZ, HUT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HIVE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1775.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 213.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -97.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4285.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 388 days | 120 days |
Compare to ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE
In The Past
HIVE Digital Technologies's stock fell -94.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -94.7% loss requires a 1775.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HIVE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for HIVE Digital Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 653 |
| Op Inc LTM | -133 |
| FCF LTM | -888 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -519 |
| CFO LTM | -282 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -144 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 72.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 60.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 131.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -34.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -123.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -98.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| P/EBIT | 10.3 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | -5.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -23.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 42.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 230.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 111.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from digital currency mining | 111 | 106 | 210 | 67 | 29 |
| High performance computing hosting | 3 | 0 | |||
| Revenue from hosting | 2 | 1 | |||
| (Loss) gain on sale of digital currencies | 6 | 1 | |||
| Revaluation of digital currencies | 15 | ||||
| Revaluation gain on digital currencies | -1 | ||||
| Total | 114 | 106 | 211 | 88 | 29 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11172025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6262025 | 40-F 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6242024 | 40-F 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6302023 | 40-F 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11152022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8172022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 7222022 | 40-F 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |