Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 34%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Climate & Catastrophe Resilience. Themes include Cyber Risk Transfer, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 34%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Climate & Catastrophe Resilience. Themes include Cyber Risk Transfer, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Hamilton Insurance (HG) stock moved by 10.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Hamilton Insurance Group reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings that significantly surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced a net income of $136 million, an annualized return on average equity of 21%, and a 6% increase in book value per share for Q3 2025. Gross premiums written surged by 26%, and Hamilton achieved a combined ratio of 87.8%. Earnings per share were $1.32 against a forecast of $0.69, and revenues reached $698.85 million compared to an expected $22.6 million, leading to a 9.16% rise in the stock during after-hours trading.

2. The company announced a substantial increase in its common share repurchase authorization. On November 4, 2025, Hamilton's Board of Directors approved a $150 million increase to its existing share repurchase authorization. This move signals management's confidence in the company's financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders, which can positively influence stock performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HG Return----27%41%80%
Peers Return-18%9%13%25%23%1%56%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HG Win Rate---0%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%57%50%63%55%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HG Max Drawdown-----17%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-11%-16%-4%-1%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RGA, RNR, MTG, GLRE, EG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

HG has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hamilton Insurance (HG)

Better Bets than Hamilton Insurance (HG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopicDate
0ARTICLES  
1Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High November 13th, 2025
Title
0DASHBOARDS

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hamilton Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HGRGARNRMTGGLREEGMedian
NameHamilton.Reinsura.Renaissa.MGIC Inv.Greenlig.Everest  
Mkt Price26.25189.32266.4128.2813.84314.03108.80
Mkt Cap2.612.512.26.50.513.09.3
Rev LTM2,80122,26612,1031,21665517,5097,452
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM8334,8393,9898031404,2462,411
FCF 3Y Avg5245,6313,340741754,6642,040
CFO LTM8334,8393,9898041404,2462,411
CFO 3Y Avg5255,6403,340742754,6642,041

Growth & Margins

HGRGARNRMTGGLREEGMedian
NameHamilton.Reinsura.Renaissa.MGIC Inv.Greenlig.Everest  
Rev Chg LTM21.6%2.3%-3.9%2.2%-0.1%8.7%2.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.2%44.8%1.2%10.1%14.2%12.2%
Rev Chg Q29.8%11.1%-19.7%-0.7%-4.6%-0.1%-0.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%2.9%-6.1%-0.2%-1.2%-0.0%-0.1%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM29.7%21.7%33.0%66.1%21.3%24.3%27.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.9%26.8%30.3%62.3%11.4%29.6%28.2%
FCF/Rev LTM29.7%21.7%33.0%66.1%21.3%24.3%27.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.8%26.8%30.3%62.2%11.4%29.6%28.2%

Valuation

HGRGARNRMTGGLREEGMedian
NameHamilton.Reinsura.Renaissa.MGIC Inv.Greenlig.Everest  
Mkt Cap2.612.512.26.50.513.09.3
P/S0.90.61.05.30.70.80.9
P/EBIT3.47.94.26.686.119.77.2
P/E5.614.66.78.6-229.626.37.7
P/CFO3.02.62.98.13.13.43.0
Total Yield17.8%8.7%15.5%13.6%-0.4%6.1%11.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%0.7%2.0%0.0%2.3%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-44.2%27.9%12.7%16.6%29.6%27.9%
D/E0.10.50.20.10.10.20.1
Net D/E-0.5-0.9-0.5-0.8-0.1-1.1-0.7

Returns

HGRGARNRMTGGLREEGMedian
NameHamilton.Reinsura.Renaissa.MGIC Inv.Greenlig.Everest  
1M Rtn13.0%4.3%4.1%2.7%13.5%0.8%4.2%
3M Rtn7.8%-3.2%8.3%1.4%9.1%-9.3%4.6%
6M Rtn18.9%-4.2%8.3%9.7%-2.1%-7.8%3.1%
12M Rtn37.6%-14.6%-6.6%11.4%-7.9%-16.5%-7.2%
3Y Rtn-38.9%44.9%127.9%75.2%0.2%44.9%
1M Excs Rtn13.0%4.3%4.1%2.7%13.6%0.9%4.2%
3M Excs Rtn1.4%-9.1%3.7%-5.4%2.8%-13.8%-2.0%
6M Excs Rtn4.2%-18.9%-6.5%-5.0%-16.8%-22.5%-11.6%
12M Excs Rtn24.0%-29.1%-19.9%-3.6%-20.8%-30.6%-20.4%
3Y Excs Rtn--29.8%-25.5%53.6%5.3%-71.3%-25.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,303,183
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-15.5%
Average Daily Volume543,046
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.40
Basic Shares Quantity99,236,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231206202310-Q 9/30/2023
33120236202023DRS/A 3/31/2023
1231202211132023424B4 12/31/2022