Hamilton Insurance (HG)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $30.9 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Reinsurance
Hamilton Insurance (HG)
Market Price (2/16/2026): $30.9Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Reinsurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 27% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% | Key risksHG key risks include [1] significant exposure to large-scale catastrophe losses and [2] potential underwriting inefficiencies and adverse prior-year reserve development. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -41% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Climate & Catastrophe Resilience. Themes include Cyber Risk Transfer, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 27% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Climate & Catastrophe Resilience. Themes include Cyber Risk Transfer, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Key risksHG key risks include [1] significant exposure to large-scale catastrophe losses and [2] potential underwriting inefficiencies and adverse prior-year reserve development. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Hamilton Insurance (HG) stock has gained about 30% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Hamilton Insurance (HG) experienced a series of favorable analyst actions since October 31, 2025. On November 5, 2025, Citigroup reiterated an "outperform" rating, while Citizens Jmp raised its price objective from $31.00 to $32.00 and maintained a "market outperform" rating. JMP Securities also set a $32.00 price target on the same day. This positive trend continued into January 2026, with Barclays increasing its target price from $29.00 to $32.00 and assigning an "overweight" rating on January 8, 2026. The consensus among analysts remains a "Moderate Buy" with target prices generally in the $29.88 to $30.00 range.
2. Strong Anticipated Q4 2025 Earnings Performance.
A significant driver for the stock's appreciation is the strong market expectation for Hamilton Insurance's Q4 2025 financial results, slated for release on February 19, 2026. Analysts project earnings per share of $0.69 for the quarter, representing a substantial 115.63% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. Quarterly revenue is also anticipated to grow by 11.71% year-over-year, reaching $637.31 million. These optimistic projections, along with upward revisions in analyst estimates, indicate confidence in the company's operational strength and profitability.
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1. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Hamilton Insurance (HG) experienced a series of favorable analyst actions since October 31, 2025. On November 5, 2025, Citigroup reiterated an "outperform" rating, while Citizens Jmp raised its price objective from $31.00 to $32.00 and maintained a "market outperform" rating. JMP Securities also set a $32.00 price target on the same day. This positive trend continued into January 2026, with Barclays increasing its target price from $29.00 to $32.00 and assigning an "overweight" rating on January 8, 2026. The consensus among analysts remains a "Moderate Buy" with target prices generally in the $29.88 to $30.00 range.
2. Strong Anticipated Q4 2025 Earnings Performance.
A significant driver for the stock's appreciation is the strong market expectation for Hamilton Insurance's Q4 2025 financial results, slated for release on February 19, 2026. Analysts project earnings per share of $0.69 for the quarter, representing a substantial 115.63% increase compared to the same period in the prior year. Quarterly revenue is also anticipated to grow by 11.71% year-over-year, reaching $637.31 million. These optimistic projections, along with upward revisions in analyst estimates, indicate confidence in the company's operational strength and profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.6% change in HG stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.67 | 30.91 | 30.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,644 | 2,801 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.4% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.3 | 7.0 | 10.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 101 | 99 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HG | 30.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | -2.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.4% | 13.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.8% change in HG stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.49 | 30.91 | 43.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,490 | 2,801 | 12.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 102 | 99 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HG | 43.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 12.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.1% | 29.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.6% change in HG stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.13 | 30.91 | 61.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,302 | 2,801 | 21.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.4% | 15.7% | -26.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.0 | 7.0 | 77.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 102 | 99 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HG | 61.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.4% | 41.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 23.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 47.7% | 35.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HG Return | - | - | -0% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 107% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 19% | 8% | 34% | 18% | 2% | 141% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HG Win Rate | - | - | 50% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 52% | 58% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HG Max Drawdown | - | - | -5% | -17% | -8% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -11% | -9% | -1% | -6% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ACGL, RNR, AXS, WRB, MKL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
HG has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ACGL, RNR, AXS, WRB, MKL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About Hamilton Insurance (HG)
We are a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company founded in Bermuda in 2013. We harness multiple drivers to create shareholder value. These include diverse underwriting operations supported by proprietary technology and a team of over 500 full-time employees, a strong balance sheet, and a unique investment management relationship with Two Sigma Investments, LP (“Two Sigma”). We operate globally, with underwriting operations in Lloyd’s of London (“Lloyd’s”), Ireland, Bermuda, and the United States. We are led by an entrepreneurial and experienced management team that have almost tripled our gross premiums written over the last five years, from $571 million for the year ended November 30, 2018 to $1.6 billion for the year ended December 31, 2022, while also reducing our combined ratio by 22 percentage points. We believe the combined effects of organic premium growth, strategic acquisition, new market developments and continuous platform cost optimization leave us well positioned to capitalize on the favorable market conditions across the lines of business written by our established and scaled underwriting platforms. We operate three principal underwriting platforms (Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select and Hamilton Re) that are categorized into two reporting business segments (International and Bermuda): • International: Accounting for 57% of gross premiums written for the year ended December 31, 2022, International consists of business written out of our Lloyd’s syndicate and subsidiaries based in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the United States, and includes the Hamilton Global Specialty and Hamilton Select platforms. • Hamilton Global Specialty focuses predominantly on commercial specialty and casualty insurance for medium to large-sized accounts and specialty reinsurance products written by Lloyd’s Syndicate 4000 and Hamilton Insurance DAC (“HIDAC”). Syndicate 4000, a leading Lloyd’s syndicate, generates a significant portion of premium from the U.S. Excess & Surplus (“E&S”) market and has ranked among the most profitable and least volatile syndicates at Lloyd’s over the last 10 years. • Hamilton Select, our recently launched U.S. domestic E&S carrier, writes casualty insurance for small to mid-sized clients in the hard-to-place niche of the U.S. E&S market. We believe it presents meaningful and profitable growth opportunities in the near to long term, further expanding our footprint in the U.S. E&S market. • Bermuda: Accounting for 43% of our gross premiums written for the year ended December 31, 2022, Bermuda consists of the Hamilton Re platform, made up of Hamilton Re, Ltd. (“Hamilton Re”) and Hamilton Re US. Hamilton Re writes property, casualty and specialty reinsurance business on a global basis and also offers high excess Bermuda market specialty insurance products, predominantly for large U.S. commercial risks. Hamilton Re US writes casualty and specialty reinsurance business on a global basis. Our evolution into a specialty insurance and reinsurance company reached a significant turning point in 2018 with the hiring of Pina Albo, our Group CEO and the start of our strategic business transformation (the “Strategic Transformation”). Ms. Albo is a 30+ year veteran in the insurance industry, having served as a member of the Board of Executive Management at Munich Re, where she had a 25-year career, as well as serving on the Board of RGA Reinsurance Company (a Fortune 500 public company) and recently being appointed as the first female Chair of the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers. The Strategic Transformation commenced in 2018, when we set a new strategy and business priorities and was propelled by the appointment of an experienced management team focused on employing rigorous risk selection and creating sustainable underwriting profitability. The Strategic Transformation also included enhancing corporate governance, re-underwriting and repositioning our business to increase the focus on casualty and specialty insurance and reinsurance lines, decreasing volatility by reducing our expense ratio and exposure to legacy liabilities, and investing in business-enabling technology. The Strategic Transformation also involved focusing on both profitable organic and inorganic growth and was accelerated in 2019 when we acquired Pembroke Managing Agency and related entities, which included Pembroke Managing Agency (subsequently renamed Hamilton Managing Agency), Lloyd’s Syndicate 4000 and Ironshore Europe DAC (“IEDAC,” subsequently renamed Hamilton Insurance DAC or HIDAC) (all acquired entities hereinafter referred to as “PMA”). This acquisition doubled and diversified our premium base, increased our underwriting expertise and operational capabilities, and provided us with a fully-scaled Lloyd’s platform. As a result of the strategic actions taken in the context of the Strategic Transformation, in the five years since 2018, we increased gross premiums written at a compound annual rate of approximately 30%(1), reduced our combined ratio significantly, optimized the portfolio mix by increasing the contribution from specialty insurance and strengthened our balance sheet. While the Strategic Transformation is complete, we continuously review our portfolio to optimize underwriting returns and opportunities, and drive additional benefits by regular collaboration with our Group Underwriting Committee (“GUC”). We believe Hamilton is consequently well positioned to deliver growth and profitability in the current attractive market environment and across all market cycles. Our proprietary technology has been a critical part of our Strategic Transformation by enabling the growth of our business and the execution of our strategy. This technology includes a catastrophe modeling and risk accumulation tool (Hamilton Analytics and Risk Platform or “HARP”), a global underwriting submission system (“Timeflow”), an efficient end-to-end specialty insurance underwriting workbench (Multi-line Insurance Toolkit or “MINT”), and a business intelligence and management information system (Hamilton Insights). Unlike many of our peers, we are not burdened by legacy systems and have modernized, cloud-based core platforms, which have enabled us to design and implement our proprietary systems to be a competitive advantage for our business. The growth of our business is supported by a strong balance sheet. As of December 31, 2022, Hamilton had total assets of $5.8 billion, total invested assets of $3.3 billion and shareholders’ equity of $1.7 billion. Our total invested assets of $3.3 billion includes $1.3 billion of securities in our fixed maturity trading portfolio and short-term investments, or 39% of our total invested assets, with an average credit rating of Aa3 and of which 100% are investment grade. We also enjoy a low debt-to-capital ratio of 7.9% at June 30, 2023, which compares favorably to our peers and provides us with meaningful financial flexibility to execute against our strategy. The Company had a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $98.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2022. Cumulatively, since the inception of the Company to December 31, 2022, our net income attributable to common shareholders was $561.6 million. The Company has demonstrated its ability to withstand catastrophe and other significant loss events across changing market cycles and we believe it is well placed to take advantage of the current hard market conditions. Our prudent reserving approach fortifies our financial position and has resulted in reserve releases every year since inception(2). Our Lloyd’s syndicate benefits from financial strength ratings of “A” (Excellent) from A.M. Best Rating Services, Inc. (“A.M. Best”), “A+” from S&P Global Ratings (“S&P Global”), “AA-” from Kroll Bond Rating Agency (“KBRA”) and “AA-” from Fitch Ratings Ltd. (“Fitch”), all of which are Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (“NRSROs”) as defined by the SEC. Our other insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries hold an “A-” (Excellent) rating from A.M. Best and an “A” rating from KBRA, each with a positive outlook. We believe these ratings demonstrate the financial strength of our insurance and reinsurance platforms and facilitate our ability to capitalize on new opportunities with our policyholders, cedants and distribution partners. (1) Gross premiums written from 2018 to 2022 were $571 million, $731 million, $1,087 million, $1,447 million, and $1,647 million, respectively. (2) Excluding the U.S. GAAP accounting impact of a loss portfolio transfer purchased in 2020. Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Wellesley House North, 1st Floor 90 Pitts Bay Road Pembroke HM 08 Bermuda.
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- Like a smaller, newer RenaissanceRe (RNR), focusing on specialty insurance and reinsurance, particularly property catastrophe.
- A developing Arch Capital (ACGL), providing specialty insurance and reinsurance for complex risks globally.
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- Reinsurance: Provides financial protection to other insurance companies by covering a portion of their risks across property catastrophe, casualty, and various specialty lines.
- Specialty Insurance: Offers direct insurance policies to businesses for complex or niche risks, including professional liability (D&O, E&O), cyber insurance, and specialized property/casualty coverages.
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Hamilton Insurance Group (symbol: HG) operates as a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company. Due to its business model, Hamilton's major customers are primarily other companies rather than individuals.
Major Customer Categories:
- Primary Insurance Companies: Hamilton Re (their Bermuda-based platform) and Hamilton Select (their Lloyd's platform) provide reinsurance coverage to other insurance companies. These primary insurers transfer a portion of their risks (e.g., property, casualty, specialty lines) to Hamilton to manage their capital and exposure. Because of the confidential nature of reinsurance contracts, specific names of these customer companies are not publicly disclosed.
- Large Corporations and Businesses: Through its specialty insurance platforms (such as Hamilton Insurance US and Hamilton Select), Hamilton provides direct insurance coverage for complex, unique, or large-scale risks to corporations and other organizational entities. These can include specialized property, casualty, or professional liability coverages that require bespoke solutions. Similar to reinsurance clients, specific corporate customers are not typically disclosed.
In essence, Hamilton Insurance Group acts as a risk underwriter for other insurers and large organizations, rather than selling policies directly to the general public or individuals.
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- Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P. (part of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS)
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Pina Albo, Chief Executive Officer
Pina Albo joined Hamilton Insurance Group as Chief Executive Officer in January 2018. Prior to Hamilton, she had a 25-year career at Munich Re, where she held various senior roles, including Head of Casualty Unit, North America/UK and International D&O/EPL, and President of the Reinsurance Division, Munich Re America. Her final position at Munich Re was Member of the Board of Executive Management, with responsibilities for Property & Casualty business and operations in Europe and Latin America. Hamilton Insurance Group announced an investment partnership with the Blackstone Group in 2019. Pina Albo currently serves on the Board of Directors for the Reinsurance Group of America and is the Deputy Chair of the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers.
Craig Howie, Group Chief Financial Officer
Craig Howie was appointed Group Chief Financial Officer of Hamilton in July 2021, bringing over 30 years of global (re)insurance industry experience. Before joining Hamilton, he served as EVP, Chief Financial Officer at Everest Re Group for nine years. Prior to Everest, he spent more than 23 years at Munich Re America, holding a number of senior finance positions. He began his career in public accounting with EY and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Adrian Daws, Chief Executive Officer, Hamilton Re
Adrian Daws was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Hamilton Re in June 2025. He previously served as CEO, Hamilton Global Specialty, a position he assumed in 2020. Daws joined Hamilton in 2015 as Head of Specialty and Deputy Active Underwriter, and became Active Underwriter of Hamilton's Lloyd's syndicate in 2018. He has over 25 years of experience in the insurance and reinsurance industry.
Alex Baker, Chief Executive Officer, Hamilton Global Specialty
Alex Baker was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Hamilton Global Specialty in June 2025. Prior to this role, he was the Group Chief Risk Officer, a position he held since 2022. Baker joined Hamilton in 2016, initially serving as Chief Risk Officer and Chief Actuary at Hamilton Global Specialty before his promotion to the groupwide role. He has over 25 years of experience in the insurance industry.
Gemma Carreiro, Group General Counsel, Corporate Secretary and Data Protection Officer
Gemma Carreiro serves as Hamilton Insurance Group's Group General Counsel, Corporate Secretary and Data Protection Officer. She is a member of the Hamilton Executive Team.
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The key risks to Hamilton Insurance (symbol: HG) are primarily concentrated in its core business of specialty insurance and reinsurance, with exposure to unpredictable large-scale events and underwriting effectiveness, alongside intense market competition.
- Catastrophe Losses: Hamilton Insurance Group faces significant exposure to large-scale catastrophe losses, which can lead to substantial earnings volatility and quickly reverse margin gains. The growing impact of climate change further challenges traditional risk models, contributing to the unpredictability and potential severity of these events.
- Underwriting Risks and Adverse Prior-Year Reserve Development: The company is susceptible to underwriting risks, which include potential inefficiencies in its underwriting practices. Additionally, there is a risk of adverse prior-year reserve development, meaning that claims could prove more costly than initially anticipated, directly impacting the company's financial health and profitability.
- Intense Industry Competition and Soft Market Conditions: The insurance and reinsurance sector is highly competitive. Hamilton Insurance Group competes with numerous established players, and the market can experience "soft" conditions (characterized by weak premium rate increases), which threaten to compress future returns and profitability.
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Hamilton Insurance Group (symbol: HG) operates in the global specialty insurance and reinsurance markets. The company's main products and services fall under these two broad categories.
Reinsurance Market
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The global reinsurance market was valued at approximately USD 574.71 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 621.39 billion in 2025, reaching USD 1,154.72 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% during the forecast period. Other estimates place the global reinsurance market at USD 711.75 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 2,000.08 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 10.88%.
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The U.S. reinsurance market size was estimated at USD 220.05 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 630.10 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 11.09% from 2025 to 2034. Another source reports the U.S. reinsurance market size as USD 143.6 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 211.7 billion by 2033.
Specialty Insurance (within the broader Property & Casualty Insurance Market)
Hamilton Insurance Group's specialty insurance offerings are a part of the larger property and casualty (P&C) insurance market.
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The global property and casualty insurance market size was estimated at USD 3.97 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 8.81 trillion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.30% from 2025 to 2034. Other data indicates the global P&C market was valued at USD 3.44 trillion in 2024, expected to reach USD 3.75 trillion by the end of 2025 and USD 5.77 trillion by 2030.
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The U.S. property and casualty insurance market size was estimated at USD 890 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit around USD 2,020 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 8.54% from 2025 to 2034. Another report states the U.S. P&C insurance market was valued at USD 1.10 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.33 trillion by 2030.
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Hamilton Insurance Group (symbol: HG) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:- Expansion of Gross Premiums Written Across Diversified Segments: Hamilton Insurance Group has demonstrated significant growth in gross premiums written across its Bermuda, International, and Hamilton Select (U.S. E&S) segments. For example, in Q3 2025, the company reported a 26.3% increase in gross premiums written, totaling $698.8 million, with the Bermuda segment up 40%, the International segment up 17%, and Hamilton Select (U.S. E&S) up 26%. This growth is attributed to both new and existing business in various property, casualty, and specialty reinsurance classes. The company's management anticipates continued growth, leveraging its global expertise and diversified business model.
- Disciplined Underwriting and Favorable Market Conditions: The company emphasizes a disciplined underwriting approach and a balanced portfolio, which have contributed to strong financial results, including an impressive combined ratio of 87.8% in Q3 2025. While the U.S. E&S market is expected to experience more competition, management still sees opportunities for attractive growth due to their established expertise and strong underwriting culture. This suggests that strategic risk selection and maintaining underwriting profitability will continue to support revenue expansion.
- Growth in Existing and New Business within Specialty Insurance and Reinsurance: Hamilton has consistently reported growth driven by an increase in both existing and new business within its property and casualty insurance classes and specialty reinsurance classes. This indicates an ability to capture new clients and expand relationships with current ones by offering a diverse range of risk underwriting services globally.
- Strategic Allocation Across Markets in Response to Realities: CEO Giuseppina Albo highlighted that Hamilton's diversified portfolio allows the company to "flex across insurance and reinsurance and multiple lines of business in response to market realities." This adaptability to market conditions, ensuring the company is strategically positioned where attractive growth opportunities exist, is a continuous driver of revenue.
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Here's a summary of Hamilton Insurance's capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:Share Repurchases
- The Board of Directors approved a $150 million increase to the existing share repurchase authorization on November 4, 2025.
- As of November 7, 2025, Hamilton Insurance had a total of $186 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
- The company repurchased $40 million of shares during the third quarter of 2025 and $10.3 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Share Issuance
- Hamilton Insurance Group completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2023.
- The company intended to use the net proceeds from its IPO to make capital contributions to its insurance and reinsurance operating subsidiaries to support business growth.
- As of October 31, 2025, there were 64,537,772 Class B shares outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- Hamilton has a significant investment in the Two Sigma Hamilton Fund, which constituted approximately 37% of its total investments, including cash, as of September 30, 2025.
- Two Sigma managed $1.6 billion of Hamilton's assets through the Two Sigma Hamilton Fund as of December 31, 2022.
- Net investment income from the Two Sigma Hamilton Fund was $54.2 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $103.6 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Cash flow from investing activities for Hamilton Insurance Group was $-184.16 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 11/13/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 100.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.6 |
| Rev LTM | 13,711 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 2,853 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,894 |
| CFO LTM | 2,995 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,013 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.6 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 7.1 |
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 14.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/10/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.74 | $24.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.4% | 28.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.9% | 31.0% |
| Downside Capture | -94.99 | 20.26 |
| Upside Capture | 10.03 | 69.94 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -13.3% | 29.5% |
HG Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.95 | -0.60 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 0.50 | -0.01 |
| Up Beta | -0.02 | 0.19 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.30 | -0.08 |
| Down Beta | -1.33 | -1.22 | -0.55 | 0.22 | 0.72 | -0.06 |
| Up Capture | -76% | -19% | 74% | 73% | 61% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 33 | 66 | 129 | 275 |
| Down Capture | -100% | -56% | -21% | 10% | 51% | 36% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 17 | 26 | 57 | 119 | 269 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HG | 64.0% | 31.0% | 1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 1.6% | 19.3% | -0.04 | 40.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 19.4% | 0.55 | 29.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.3% | 25.3% | 2.17 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 42.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.9% | -0.65 | 12.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HG | 15.5% | 31.9% | 1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.4% | 18.7% | 0.54 | 35.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.0% | 1.06 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 18.9% | 0.44 | 1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 15.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HG | 7.5% | 31.9% | 1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.8% | 22.2% | 0.57 | 35.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 15.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.4% | 11.2% | 13.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 5.6% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | 5.2% | 13.7% | 17.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | -2.4% | -2.2% | 3.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 7.7% | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| 3/6/2024 | -0.5% | -2.8% | -8.9% |
| 12/5/2023 | -4.0% | -3.0% | -2.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -2.8% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.0% | -3.0% | -8.9% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker, Alexander James | CEO, Hamilton Global Specialty | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 26.19 | 18,350 | 480,638 | 2,203,757 | Form |
| 2 | Bernhard, Keith Donald | Group Chief Audit Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 24.37 | 47,000 | 1,145,414 | 1,313,399 | Form |
| 3 | Krishnamoorthy, Venkatanarayanan | Group CTO and Group CDO | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 24.00 | 18,988 | 455,714 | 1,548,294 | Form |
| 4 | Baker, Alexander James | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 23.79 | 6,000 | 142,724 | 2,767,367 | Form |
| 5 | Graves, Megan Jane | CEO, Hamilton Re | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 23.75 | 50,000 | 1,187,340 | 2,485,673 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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