Hamilton Insurance (HG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.49 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Reinsurance
Hamilton Insurance (HG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.49Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Reinsurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 34% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Climate & Catastrophe Resilience. Themes include Cyber Risk Transfer, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 34% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -51% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Climate & Catastrophe Resilience. Themes include Cyber Risk Transfer, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Hamilton Insurance (HG) stock moved by 10.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Hamilton Insurance Group reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings that significantly surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced a net income of $136 million, an annualized return on average equity of 21%, and a 6% increase in book value per share for Q3 2025. Gross premiums written surged by 26%, and Hamilton achieved a combined ratio of 87.8%. Earnings per share were $1.32 against a forecast of $0.69, and revenues reached $698.85 million compared to an expected $22.6 million, leading to a 9.16% rise in the stock during after-hours trading.
2. The company announced a substantial increase in its common share repurchase authorization. On November 4, 2025, Hamilton's Board of Directors approved a $150 million increase to its existing share repurchase authorization. This move signals management's confidence in the company's financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders, which can positively influence stock performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HG Return | - | - | - | - | 27% | 41% | 80% |
| Peers Return | -18% | 9% | 13% | 25% | 23% | 1% | 56% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HG Win Rate | - | - | - | 0% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 57% | 50% | 63% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -17% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -11% | -16% | -4% | -1% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RGA, RNR, MTG, GLRE, EG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
HG has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 13th, 2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hamilton Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 108.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,452 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 2,411 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,040 |
| CFO LTM | 2,411 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,041 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.3 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | 3.0 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 27.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6202023 | DRS/A 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 11132023 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |