Home Bancorp (HBCP)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $57.83 | Market Cap: $446.0 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Home Bancorp (HBCP)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $57.83Market Cap: $446.0 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 9.5% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.1% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 9.5% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.1% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Home Bancorp (HBCP) stock has gained about 5% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Home Bancorp reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations for both diluted EPS and revenue. The company posted diluted earnings per share of $1.46, exceeding the forecasted $1.39 by 5.04%. Additionally, revenue reached $38.05 million, beating projections of $37.4 million by 1.74%. For the full year 2025, Home Bancorp achieved record net income of $46 million and diluted EPS of $5.87, representing a 29% increase over 2024.
2. The company provided an optimistic outlook for 2026, projecting mid-single-digit loan growth and potential expansion of its Net Interest Margin (NIM). Management anticipates a slight increase in NIM to 4.10-4.15% and expects loan growth to accelerate if interest rates decline. Home Bancorp is also strategically expanding its operations in Texas, with loans in this region now accounting for 20% of its total loan portfolio.
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1. Home Bancorp reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations for both diluted EPS and revenue. The company posted diluted earnings per share of $1.46, exceeding the forecasted $1.39 by 5.04%. Additionally, revenue reached $38.05 million, beating projections of $37.4 million by 1.74%. For the full year 2025, Home Bancorp achieved record net income of $46 million and diluted EPS of $5.87, representing a 29% increase over 2024.
2. The company provided an optimistic outlook for 2026, projecting mid-single-digit loan growth and potential expansion of its Net Interest Margin (NIM). Management anticipates a slight increase in NIM to 4.10-4.15% and expects loan growth to accelerate if interest rates decline. Home Bancorp is also strategically expanding its operations in Texas, with loans in this region now accounting for 20% of its total loan portfolio.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.9% change in HBCP stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.20 | 57.90 | 4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 146 | 146 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.4% | 30.4% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.6 | 10.1 | 4.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.3% | 52.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.0% change in HBCP stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.66 | 57.90 | 4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 142 | 146 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.1% | 30.4% | 4.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 10.1 | -2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 31.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.1% | 56.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.9% change in HBCP stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.99 | 57.90 | 25.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 132 | 146 | 10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 30.4% | 11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.1 | 10.1 | -0.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 25.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 47.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.3% | 60.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.6% change in HBCP stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.73 | 57.90 | 57.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 123 | 146 | 18.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.2% | 30.4% | 11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.9 | 10.1 | 13.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 57.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 43.1% | 58.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HBCP Return | 52% | -1% | 8% | 13% | 28% | 1% | 136% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -30% | 30% | 1% | 26% | 0% | 38% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HBCP Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 47% | 58% | 44% | 75% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HBCP Max Drawdown | -0% | -18% | -28% | -20% | -9% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -38% | -27% | -17% | -9% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AGBK, HYNE, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HBCP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 449 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 406 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,041 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AGBK, HYNE, NU
In The Past
Home Bancorp's stock fell -37.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2022. A -37.3% loss requires a 59.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Home Bancorp (HBCP)
Home Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Home Bank, National Association that provides various banking products and services in Louisiana and Mississippi. It offers deposit products, including interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing checking, money market, savings, NOW, and certificates of deposit accounts. The company also provides various loan products, such as one-to four-family first mortgage loans, home equity loans and lines, commercial real estate loans, construction and land loans, multi-family residential loans, commercial and industrial loans, and consumer loans. In addition, it invests in securities; and offers credit cards and online banking services. The company operates through a network of 19 banking offices in the Acadiana, four banking offices in Baton Rouge, six banking offices in the Greater New Orleans area, six banking offices in the Northshore region, and three banking offices in Natchez. Home Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Lafayette, Louisiana.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Home Bancorp (HBCP):
- Think of it as a regional Bank of America, focused on Louisiana and Mississippi.
- It's like a local Wells Fargo, primarily serving communities in Louisiana and Mississippi.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Deposit Products: A suite of banking services including checking, savings, money market, NOW, and certificates of deposit accounts for individuals and businesses.
- Loan Products: Diverse banking services offering various types of credit, such as mortgage, home equity, commercial real estate, construction, multi-family residential, commercial and industrial, and consumer loans.
- Securities Investments: Financial activities involving the investment in various securities to manage the company's assets.
- Credit Cards: Financial instruments provided to customers for making purchases on credit.
- Online Banking Services: Digital platforms that enable customers to conveniently manage their bank accounts and conduct transactions remotely.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Home Bancorp (HBCP), as a bank holding company, serves a diverse customer base rather than having a few major customers. Its primary customer categories include:
-
Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals and families who utilize a range of deposit products such as checking, savings, money market, NOW, and certificates of deposit accounts. They also obtain one-to four-family first mortgage loans, home equity loans and lines, and various consumer loans. Additionally, Home Bancorp offers credit cards and online banking services to this segment.
-
Commercial Businesses: This category encompasses small to medium-sized businesses that benefit from the bank's commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, and business-specific deposit accounts.
-
Real Estate Developers and Investors: This specialized segment of business customers utilizes the bank's financing for construction and land loans, multi-family residential loans, and other commercial real estate loan products.
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| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Home Bancorp Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HBCP.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | JEF | Jefferies Financial | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.6% | 2.6% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 146 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 19 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 30 |
| CFO LTM | 20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 34 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 10.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.7% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $57.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/03/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $60.05 | $55.41 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.6% | 4.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.6% | 30.1% |
| Downside Capture | 56.84 | 70.58 |
| Upside Capture | 44.15 | 88.11 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.6% | 46.9% |
HBCP Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | 0.64 | 2.19 | 2.03 | 1.62 | 0.77 | 0.99 |
| Down Beta | 0.15 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.79 | 0.70 | 0.91 |
| Up Capture | 136% | 62% | 63% | 58% | 75% | 102% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 30 | 58 | 130 | 370 |
| Down Capture | 87% | 56% | 23% | 60% | 78% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 29 | 64 | 119 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HBCP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 35.2% | 30.0% | 1.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 3.6% | 19.3% | 0.06 | 60.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 46.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 43.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 27.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HBCP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 13.1% | 30.2% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.3% | 18.7% | 0.38 | 54.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 42.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 39.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HBCP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBCP | 11.1% | 33.8% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 61.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 50.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | -1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 17.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 47.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/26/2026 | -3.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| 10/20/2025 | 2.4% | 0.8% | -2.2% |
| 7/21/2025 | 0.6% | -2.6% | -5.8% |
| 4/21/2025 | 10.7% | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| 1/27/2025 | 4.4% | 3.6% | -2.0% |
| 10/17/2024 | -0.2% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 7/17/2024 | -7.4% | -5.6% | -7.6% |
| 4/18/2024 | 7.4% | 5.7% | 14.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.9% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -2.7% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 10.7% | 14.6% | 18.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -17.8% | -9.7% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guidry, Daniel G | Direct | Sell | 5132025 | 52.40 | 500 | 26,200 | 3,370,316 | Form | |
| 2 | Guidry, Daniel G | Direct | Sell | 5062025 | 50.94 | 2,000 | 101,874 | 3,301,679 | Form | |
| 3 | Kirkley, David T | SEVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4252025 | 48.53 | 2,284 | 110,831 | 176,292 | Form |
| 4 | Rader, Chris P | Direct | Buy | 2192026 | 59.50 | 500 | 29,750 | 1,053,968 | Form |
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