Hawkeye 360 (HAWK)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $21.44 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $21.44Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Satellite RF Intelligence. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.9x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 243x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Satellite RF Intelligence. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.9x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 243x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.2% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) stock has lost about 50% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Shift to significant GAAP net loss in fiscal Q2 2026. Despite an 87% year-over-year revenue increase to $49.8 million in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), Hawkeye 360 reported a net loss of $15.3 million, a sharp reversal from a $1.6 million net income in the prior-year period. This significant swing to unprofitability disappointed investors who likely expected a clearer path to positive GAAP earnings following the company's May 2026 initial public offering (IPO).
2. Surge in operating expenses and IPO-related costs. The net loss in fiscal Q2 2026 was largely driven by a 138% surge in operating expenses. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $25.0 million from $8.8 million in the prior year, and stock-based compensation, primarily tied to IPO-related equity awards, spiked to $9.8 million for the first half of fiscal 2026. These increased expenditures, many related to public company transition and investments for longer-term growth, outpaced revenue growth and pressured profitability.
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Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) stock has lost about 50% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Shift to significant GAAP net loss in fiscal Q2 2026. Despite an 87% year-over-year revenue increase to $49.8 million in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), Hawkeye 360 reported a net loss of $15.3 million, a sharp reversal from a $1.6 million net income in the prior-year period. This significant swing to unprofitability disappointed investors who likely expected a clearer path to positive GAAP earnings following the company's May 2026 initial public offering (IPO).
2. Surge in operating expenses and IPO-related costs. The net loss in fiscal Q2 2026 was largely driven by a 138% surge in operating expenses. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $25.0 million from $8.8 million in the prior year, and stock-based compensation, primarily tied to IPO-related equity awards, spiked to $9.8 million for the first half of fiscal 2026. These increased expenditures, many related to public company transition and investments for longer-term growth, outpaced revenue growth and pressured profitability.
3. Prior fiscal Q1 2026 earnings miss creating negative investor sentiment. Although occurring just before the specified period, the company's fiscal Q1 2026 results (ended March 31, 2026) showed a substantial loss of $0.45 per share against analyst expectations of a $0.05 loss, representing an 800% negative surprise. This dramatic underperformance raised serious questions about the company's ability to manage costs and achieve profitability, setting a negative tone for investor confidence as the stock began trading after its May 2026 IPO.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -52.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.5% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.2% | 20.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -52.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.3% | 20.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -52.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.2% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.8% | 20.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -52.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.2% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 70.0% | 20.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HAWK Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -52% | -52% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -34% | -25% | 5% | 139% | 107% | 129% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HAWK Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 50% | 35% | 55% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HAWK Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -54% | -62% | -56% | -56% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PL, BKSY, SATL, IRDM, VSAT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HAWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 443 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 1 days |
In The Past
Hawkeye 360's stock fell -1.5% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 1.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | HAWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 443 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Hawkeye 360's stock fell -1.5% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 1.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hawkeye 360 (HAWK)
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) specializes in providing a diverse range of prepaid payment solutions, including gift, telecom, and debit cards, available in both physical and electronic formats. The company operates across three primary segments: U.S. Retail, International, and Incentives & Rewards, delivering related prepaid products and payment services to a global market.
The company's core offerings encompass a variety of closed-loop gift cards for categories such as digital media, e-commerce, dining, entertainment, and travel, alongside non-reloadable open-loop gift cards. Hawkeye 360 also provides prepaid wireless cards for airtime and handsets, General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) cards, and its Reloadit network for convenient GPR card reloads. Beyond consumer products, it offers comprehensive incentive solutions for businesses, managing programs like consumer rebates, sales incentives, and bulk prepaid card fulfillment. Additionally, the company operates Cardpool, an online marketplace for selling unused gift cards, and provides digital services, card production, and processing capabilities.
Hawkeye 360 primarily serves individual consumers who purchase prepaid cards for various uses, and businesses seeking solutions for consumer incentive programs, employee rewards, and sales channel initiatives. Its products are widely distributed through a robust network of grocery, convenience, specialty, and online retailers, ensuring broad market accessibility.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hawkeye 360 (symbol: HAWK) is like:
- The Amazon of prepaid gift and debit cards
- A specialized payment network, similar to Visa or Mastercard, but focused on gift cards and prepaid solutions
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Prepaid Gift Cards: Offers a variety of physical and electronic closed-loop and non-reloadable open-loop gift cards.
- Prepaid Telecom Products: Provides prepaid wireless/cellular cards for airtime and sells related handsets.
- General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) Cards & Services: Supplies GPR cards and operates Reloadit, a network for reloading funds onto various prepaid cards.
- Business Incentive & Reward Solutions: Delivers comprehensive services for managing consumer rebates, sales incentives, and bulk prepaid card fulfillment for businesses.
- Gift Card Exchange Marketplace: Operates Cardpool, an online and retail platform where consumers can sell unused gift cards.
- Digital & Processing Services: Provides digital services for online and mobile applications, along with card production and processing for content providers.
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- Rise of Comprehensive Digital Wallets and Mobile Payment Apps: The increasing ubiquity and functionality of digital wallets and mobile payment platforms (e.g., Apple Pay, Google Pay, PayPal, Venmo, Square Cash) pose a significant threat. These platforms offer integrated peer-to-peer money transfers, direct merchant loyalty program integration, and seamless payment capabilities that can serve as direct alternatives to Blackhawk's prepaid gift cards, general purpose reloadable (GPR) cards, and even incentives solutions. As consumers increasingly rely on these apps for everyday spending, gifting, and managing funds, the need for separate physical or digital prepaid cards distributed through Blackhawk's network may diminish.
- Direct-to-Consumer Digital Gifting and Loyalty Platforms by Major Merchants: Large retailers and service providers are increasingly developing and promoting their own robust, in-app digital gifting and loyalty ecosystems. These platforms allow consumers to directly purchase, send, and redeem digital gift cards or store credit within the merchant's own application or website, often with integrated loyalty benefits and personalized offers. This trend enables major brands to bypass third-party intermediaries like Blackhawk for the distribution and processing of their closed-loop gift cards, potentially reducing Blackhawk's sales volume and relevance in this key segment.
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Here are the addressable markets for Blackhawk Network Holdings, Inc.'s main products and services:
- Prepaid Gift Cards: The global gift card market was valued at approximately USD 1.40 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2.22 trillion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.11%. Another estimate puts the global gift card market size at USD 1.24 trillion in 2025, with a projected increase to USD 4.23 trillion by 2035, at a CAGR of 13.06%. Within this, the closed-loop gift cards segment generated over USD 326.6 billion globally in 2024. The open-loop gift card market is anticipated to reach USD 1,236.7 billion globally by 2034. In North America, the gift card market is expected to hold a 35.1% share of the global market in 2024, valued at US$168,677 million, and is projected to reach US$442,043 million by 2034. The U.S. gift card market alone was worth over USD 223 billion in 2024.
- Prepaid Telecom Cards: The global prepaid telecom services market size was valued at approximately USD 120 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 160 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of about 3.3%.
- Debit Cards (General Purpose Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Open Loop Gift Cards): These products fall under the broader prepaid card market. The global prepaid card market size is projected to be worth around USD 21.46 trillion by 2034, up from USD 3.60 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.55%. Another source estimates the global prepaid card market was valued at USD 4.5 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 23.8 trillion in 2033, at a CAGR of 20.3%. North America dominates the prepaid card market, holding a 61% share in 2024. The U.S. prepaid card market is expected to reach $1,645.77 billion by 2027.
- Incentives & Rewards Solutions: The global Rewards and Incentives Service market size is projected to reach USD 7152.8 million by 2028, growing from USD 3910.9 million in 2021 at a CAGR of 8.9%. Another report indicates the global Rewards and Incentives Service Market was valued at USD 6.52 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 12.99 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of approximately 8.9%. North America is a significant region in this market, holding over 40% of the global market share in 2024 and projected to command roughly 38–40% of the total market share during 2026–2035.
- Cardpool (Online Marketplace for Unused Gift Cards): A specific addressable market size for the secondary market for unused gift cards (like Cardpool) was not explicitly available in the search results. However, it is noted that approximately $3 billion in unused gift cards goes to waste every year, indicating a significant pool of potential inventory for such a marketplace.
- Digital Services for Online and Mobile Applications & Card Production and Processing Services: These services are part of the broader digital payments market. The global digital payment market size was valued at USD 140.22 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 874.89 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 22.56%. North America dominated the digital payment industry, accounting for a 33.5% share in 2024. Another estimate places the global digital payments market size at $119.55 billion in 2024, expected to reach $522.87 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of nearly 15.90% between 2025 and 2034.
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Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 25.2% | 124.7% | 202.2% | CDNL 3246% · STRL 2190% · FIX 2132% |
| Marine Transportation | 4 | 57.9% | 61.9% | 150.7% | MATX 212% · KEX 154% · SFL 148% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 12.3% | 66.8% | 120.6% | CAT 324% · ALSN 285% · WAB 252% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 55 | 11.1% | 70.2% | 79.6% | DFNS 2047% · ATI 1042% · FTAI 968% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -5.7% | 65.1% | 69.3% | UBER 96% · CAR 69% · LYFT -63% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 11.5% | 56.0% | 56.3% | CRS 1440% · PSIX 846% · GHM 735% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 38.3% | 76.2% | 50.1% | FSTR 115% · CSX 65% · UNP 56% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 35.7% | 16.1% | 45.4% | XPO 270% · R 264% · CVLG 222% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 8.9% | 37.5% | 34.9% | LIME 4674% · TH 369% · WLFC 347% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 18 | 2.2% | 36.4% | 32.1% | DXPE 523% · AIT 303% · URI 232% |
| Building Products | 33 | -8.8% | 15.9% | 28.8% | LMB 436% · GFF 413% · PPIH 289% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 26.1% | 44.8% | 28.3% | POWL 2374% · VRT 856% · BE 849% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 15.8% | 26.3% | 4.9% | RCMT 727% · CSW 153% · TTI 145% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 14.0% | 25.0% | 3.8% | TILE 188% · PBI 159% · EBF 56% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 28 | -8.3% | 20.9% | 0.8% | CECO 863% · ADUR 661% · GEO 324% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -7.2% | -18.4% | -1.6% | HURN 220% · CRAI 97% · GRNQ 31% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | -1.2% | -3.9% | -14.4% | BLBD 200% · DE 88% · GENC 65% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -30.4% | -9.5% | -24.5% | EXLS 59% · BR 16% · G -23% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 5.9% | -4.6% | -29.3% | LTM 2324% · UAL 140% · SKYW 130% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 20 | 4.5% | -19.4% | -36.1% | BBSI 89% · ADP 51% · KFY 36% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -16.2% | -24.2% | -39.1% | CHRW 78% · FDX 67% · EXPD 62% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -36.2% | -14.3% | -43.4% | CIX 107% · MG 93% · BCO 52% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -69.1% | -69.0% | -58.3% | JOBY -31% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 242 |
| Op Inc LTM | -20 |
| FCF LTM | 14 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -23 |
| CFO LTM | 69 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 206 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 42.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -22.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -24.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.42 | 1.79 | 1.85 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| Up Beta | 5.10 | 4.98 | 4.08 | 1.48 | 0.99 | 0.16 |
| Down Beta | -0.14 | -0.33 | -1.02 | -0.58 | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| Up Capture | 304% | 21% | 30% | 12% | 5% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Down Capture | 206% | 256% | 328% | 170% | 113% | 63% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HAWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -37.0% | 79.7% | -1.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.5% | 17.1% | 0.92 | 20.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.22 | 34.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 28.8% | 1.10 | 37.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.2% | 20.2% | 1.66 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | -10.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.6% | 44.1% | -0.73 | 34.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HAWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -8.8% | 79.7% | -1.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 20.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 34.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 37.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.6% | 0.41 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | -10.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.8% | 0.38 | 34.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HAWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -1.6% | 43.1% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 20.0% | 0.60 | 13.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 20.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.7% | 16.2% | 0.64 | 16.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.0% | 0.36 | -2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 3.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | -1.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Hawkeye 360 — Investor Video Playlist






Industry Resources
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