Hawkeye 360 (HAWK)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $19.0 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $19.0Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Satellite RF Intelligence. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, and Satellite RF Intelligence. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) stock has lost about 60% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-IPO price correction and initial overvaluation.
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) commenced trading on May 7, 2026, with its shares opening at $33.80 after pricing its Initial Public Offering (IPO) at $26.00, demonstrating strong initial investor interest. However, the stock experienced a rapid decline, falling to $21.70 by May 18, 2026, indicating that the initial market exuberance and valuation were not sustained and underwent a significant correction shortly after its public debut.
2. Wider-than-expected net loss in fiscal Q1 2026.
On June 22, 2026, Hawkeye 360 announced its financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), reporting a net loss of $9.0 million, a substantial increase from the $1.6 million loss in the prior-year period. This loss significantly missed analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with the company reporting a loss of $0.45 per share against an estimated loss of $0.05 per share, raising investor concerns about profitability despite robust revenue growth of 116.5% to $49.8 million.
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Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) stock has lost about 60% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-IPO price correction and initial overvaluation.
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) commenced trading on May 7, 2026, with its shares opening at $33.80 after pricing its Initial Public Offering (IPO) at $26.00, demonstrating strong initial investor interest. However, the stock experienced a rapid decline, falling to $21.70 by May 18, 2026, indicating that the initial market exuberance and valuation were not sustained and underwent a significant correction shortly after its public debut.
2. Wider-than-expected net loss in fiscal Q1 2026.
On June 22, 2026, Hawkeye 360 announced its financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), reporting a net loss of $9.0 million, a substantial increase from the $1.6 million loss in the prior-year period. This loss significantly missed analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with the company reporting a loss of $0.45 per share against an estimated loss of $0.05 per share, raising investor concerns about profitability despite robust revenue growth of 116.5% to $49.8 million.
3. Decreased backlog impacting future revenue visibility.
The company's backlog, representing signed contracts and future revenue commitments, decreased to $285.0 million as of March 31, 2026, down from $302.7 million at the end of 2025. This reduction in backlog suggests that new contract awards did not fully offset revenue recognition during the quarter, potentially leading to investor apprehension regarding the company's near-term growth trajectory and long-term revenue predictability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -58.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.6% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.6% | 4.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -58.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.6% | 4.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -58.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 23.6% | 4.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -58.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 75.1% | 4.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HAWK Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -56% | -56% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -34% | -25% | 5% | 139% | 112% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HAWK Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 50% | 35% | 55% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HAWK Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -54% | -62% | -56% | -56% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PL, BKSY, SATL, IRDM, VSAT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HAWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 443 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 1 days |
In The Past
Hawkeye 360's stock fell -1.5% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 1.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | HAWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 443 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Hawkeye 360's stock fell -1.5% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 1.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hawkeye 360 (HAWK)
Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) specializes in providing a diverse range of prepaid payment solutions, including gift, telecom, and debit cards, available in both physical and electronic formats. The company operates across three primary segments: U.S. Retail, International, and Incentives & Rewards, delivering related prepaid products and payment services to a global market.
The company's core offerings encompass a variety of closed-loop gift cards for categories such as digital media, e-commerce, dining, entertainment, and travel, alongside non-reloadable open-loop gift cards. Hawkeye 360 also provides prepaid wireless cards for airtime and handsets, General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) cards, and its Reloadit network for convenient GPR card reloads. Beyond consumer products, it offers comprehensive incentive solutions for businesses, managing programs like consumer rebates, sales incentives, and bulk prepaid card fulfillment. Additionally, the company operates Cardpool, an online marketplace for selling unused gift cards, and provides digital services, card production, and processing capabilities.
Hawkeye 360 primarily serves individual consumers who purchase prepaid cards for various uses, and businesses seeking solutions for consumer incentive programs, employee rewards, and sales channel initiatives. Its products are widely distributed through a robust network of grocery, convenience, specialty, and online retailers, ensuring broad market accessibility.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hawkeye 360 (symbol: HAWK) is like:
- The Amazon of prepaid gift and debit cards
- A specialized payment network, similar to Visa or Mastercard, but focused on gift cards and prepaid solutions
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Prepaid Gift Cards: Offers a variety of physical and electronic closed-loop and non-reloadable open-loop gift cards.
- Prepaid Telecom Products: Provides prepaid wireless/cellular cards for airtime and sells related handsets.
- General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) Cards & Services: Supplies GPR cards and operates Reloadit, a network for reloading funds onto various prepaid cards.
- Business Incentive & Reward Solutions: Delivers comprehensive services for managing consumer rebates, sales incentives, and bulk prepaid card fulfillment for businesses.
- Gift Card Exchange Marketplace: Operates Cardpool, an online and retail platform where consumers can sell unused gift cards.
- Digital & Processing Services: Provides digital services for online and mobile applications, along with card production and processing for content providers.
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- Rise of Comprehensive Digital Wallets and Mobile Payment Apps: The increasing ubiquity and functionality of digital wallets and mobile payment platforms (e.g., Apple Pay, Google Pay, PayPal, Venmo, Square Cash) pose a significant threat. These platforms offer integrated peer-to-peer money transfers, direct merchant loyalty program integration, and seamless payment capabilities that can serve as direct alternatives to Blackhawk's prepaid gift cards, general purpose reloadable (GPR) cards, and even incentives solutions. As consumers increasingly rely on these apps for everyday spending, gifting, and managing funds, the need for separate physical or digital prepaid cards distributed through Blackhawk's network may diminish.
- Direct-to-Consumer Digital Gifting and Loyalty Platforms by Major Merchants: Large retailers and service providers are increasingly developing and promoting their own robust, in-app digital gifting and loyalty ecosystems. These platforms allow consumers to directly purchase, send, and redeem digital gift cards or store credit within the merchant's own application or website, often with integrated loyalty benefits and personalized offers. This trend enables major brands to bypass third-party intermediaries like Blackhawk for the distribution and processing of their closed-loop gift cards, potentially reducing Blackhawk's sales volume and relevance in this key segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the addressable markets for Blackhawk Network Holdings, Inc.'s main products and services:
- Prepaid Gift Cards: The global gift card market was valued at approximately USD 1.40 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2.22 trillion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.11%. Another estimate puts the global gift card market size at USD 1.24 trillion in 2025, with a projected increase to USD 4.23 trillion by 2035, at a CAGR of 13.06%. Within this, the closed-loop gift cards segment generated over USD 326.6 billion globally in 2024. The open-loop gift card market is anticipated to reach USD 1,236.7 billion globally by 2034. In North America, the gift card market is expected to hold a 35.1% share of the global market in 2024, valued at US$168,677 million, and is projected to reach US$442,043 million by 2034. The U.S. gift card market alone was worth over USD 223 billion in 2024.
- Prepaid Telecom Cards: The global prepaid telecom services market size was valued at approximately USD 120 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 160 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of about 3.3%.
- Debit Cards (General Purpose Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Open Loop Gift Cards): These products fall under the broader prepaid card market. The global prepaid card market size is projected to be worth around USD 21.46 trillion by 2034, up from USD 3.60 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.55%. Another source estimates the global prepaid card market was valued at USD 4.5 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 23.8 trillion in 2033, at a CAGR of 20.3%. North America dominates the prepaid card market, holding a 61% share in 2024. The U.S. prepaid card market is expected to reach $1,645.77 billion by 2027.
- Incentives & Rewards Solutions: The global Rewards and Incentives Service market size is projected to reach USD 7152.8 million by 2028, growing from USD 3910.9 million in 2021 at a CAGR of 8.9%. Another report indicates the global Rewards and Incentives Service Market was valued at USD 6.52 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 12.99 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of approximately 8.9%. North America is a significant region in this market, holding over 40% of the global market share in 2024 and projected to command roughly 38–40% of the total market share during 2026–2035.
- Cardpool (Online Marketplace for Unused Gift Cards): A specific addressable market size for the secondary market for unused gift cards (like Cardpool) was not explicitly available in the search results. However, it is noted that approximately $3 billion in unused gift cards goes to waste every year, indicating a significant pool of potential inventory for such a marketplace.
- Digital Services for Online and Mobile Applications & Card Production and Processing Services: These services are part of the broader digital payments market. The global digital payment market size was valued at USD 140.22 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 874.89 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 22.56%. North America dominated the digital payment industry, accounting for a 33.5% share in 2024. Another estimate places the global digital payments market size at $119.55 billion in 2024, expected to reach $522.87 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of nearly 15.90% between 2025 and 2034.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 336 |
| Op Inc LTM | -45 |
| FCF LTM | 41 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -27 |
| CFO LTM | 132 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 201 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -14.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -31.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -27.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -9.4% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.42 | 1.73 | 1.31 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| Up Beta | 5.77 | 3.98 | 1.49 | 1.10 | 0.69 | 0.11 |
| Down Beta | -1.23 | -1.65 | -0.64 | -0.38 | -0.09 | -0.05 |
| Up Capture | -162% | -60% | -29% | -18% | -8% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Down Capture | 314% | 428% | 377% | 158% | 104% | 56% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HAWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -44.5% | 81.4% | -4.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 22.5% | 16.7% | 1.04 | 4.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.5% | 1.26 | 22.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 27.8% | 0.70 | 48.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 18.7% | 1.06 | -14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.62 | 7.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.4% | 42.8% | -1.13 | 50.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HAWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -11.1% | 81.4% | -4.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 17.6% | 0.62 | 4.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 22.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 48.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.30 | -14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 7.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 53.5% | 0.41 | 50.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HAWK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWK | -2.2% | 39.8% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.9% | 20.0% | 0.66 | 10.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 18.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 12.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | -0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 9.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | -2.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Hawkeye 360 — Investor Video Playlist






Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
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