GXO Logistics (GXO)
Market Price (8/21/2026): $45.2 | Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
GXO Logistics (GXO)
Market Price (8/21/2026): $45.2Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% Key risksGXO key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet creating potential liquidity distress and [2] execution risk from its acquisition-focused growth strategy and leadership transitions. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Key risksGXO key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet creating potential liquidity distress and [2] execution risk from its acquisition-focused growth strategy and leadership transitions. |
Qualitative Assessment
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GXO Logistics (GXO) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Miss and Disappointing Full-Year Guidance. GXO Logistics reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $3.44 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $3.46 billion. Despite a slight beat on adjusted EPS, the company maintained its full-year 2026 organic revenue growth outlook at 4%-5% and narrowed its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.95-$3.15 (midpoint $3.05). This guidance, which failed to exceed prior expectations, disappointed investors who anticipated stronger accelerating momentum, especially given positive indicators from other industrial sector companies.
2. Flat Adjusted EBITDA Margin in Fiscal Q2 2026. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin remained essentially flat year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, which concluded on June 30, 2026. This indicated a lack of the anticipated operating leverage and raised investor concerns regarding the pace of profitability improvement, despite management's longer-term goals for margin expansion.
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GXO Logistics (GXO) stock has lost about 20% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Miss and Disappointing Full-Year Guidance. GXO Logistics reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $3.44 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $3.46 billion. Despite a slight beat on adjusted EPS, the company maintained its full-year 2026 organic revenue growth outlook at 4%-5% and narrowed its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.95-$3.15 (midpoint $3.05). This guidance, which failed to exceed prior expectations, disappointed investors who anticipated stronger accelerating momentum, especially given positive indicators from other industrial sector companies.
2. Flat Adjusted EBITDA Margin in Fiscal Q2 2026. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin remained essentially flat year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, which concluded on June 30, 2026. This indicated a lack of the anticipated operating leverage and raised investor concerns regarding the pace of profitability improvement, despite management's longer-term goals for margin expansion.
3. Analyst Price Target Reductions. Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release, analysts adjusted their outlooks, with several cutting their price targets for GXO Logistics. For instance, in July 2026, some analysts trimmed the average price target by $5 to $68. This shift in analyst sentiment reflected a more conservative view on the stock's future upside potential and incorporated modestly higher discount rates in their valuation models, contributing to negative market pressure.
4. Increased Competition with Amazon's Supply Chain Entry. The entry of Amazon.com into the supply chain services market in May 2026 introduced a significant competitive concern for GXO Logistics. Investors reacted to the potential for increased competition from a major player, which could negatively impact GXO's market share and profitability within its contract logistics segments.
5. Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds and Soft Freight Demand. Throughout the period, GXO's stock was impacted by wider macroeconomic concerns and a cautious outlook for the logistics and transportation sector. Factors such as "softer industrial production data" in May 2026 and "sector-wide concerns over freight volumes and consumer demand" in July 2026 contributed to a general bearish sentiment, adding pressure to GXO's stock performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.6% change in GXO stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.13 | 45.37 | -20.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,178 | 13,641 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.2% | 1.0% | 295.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 204.4 | 39.8 | -80.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 115 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GXO | -20.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.1% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.0% | 40.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.8% change in GXO stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.59 | 45.37 | -19.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,921 | 13,641 | 5.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 1.0% | 39.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 72.8 | 39.8 | -45.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 115 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GXO | -19.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 48.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.0% | 51.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.7% change in GXO stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.71 | 45.37 | -8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,230 | 13,641 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.6% | 1.0% | 56.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 78.9 | 39.8 | -49.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 115 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GXO | -8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 49.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.5% | 53.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.4% change in GXO stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.07 | 45.37 | -32.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,233 | 13,641 | 47.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.0% | 1.0% | -52.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.1 | 39.8 | -7.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 115 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GXO | -32.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.5% | 48.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 69.6% | 56.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GXO Return | 67% | -53% | 43% | -29% | 21% | -12% | -15% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -15% | 48% | 17% | 28% | 27% | 217% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GXO Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 43% | 63% | 57% | 70% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GXO Max Drawdown | - | -64% | -26% | -33% | -32% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -32% | -23% | -20% | -27% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XPO, CHRW, R, JBHT, EXPD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 840 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 31 days |
In The Past
GXO Logistics's stock fell -22.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 840 days | 24 days |
In The Past
GXO Logistics's stock fell -22.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About GXO Logistics (GXO)
GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) is a global provider of logistics services, specializing in managing and optimizing complex supply chains for businesses worldwide. Essentially, GXO handles the intricate operations involved in moving, storing, and distributing products efficiently, from the manufacturer all the way to the end customer.
The company's main services encompass critical aspects of modern commerce, including warehousing and distribution to store and transport goods effectively. They are also a key player in order fulfillment, particularly for e-commerce, ensuring that online purchases are processed and shipped promptly. A significant offering is reverse logistics, which manages product returns, a vital service for retailers and e-commerce platforms. GXO provides a comprehensive suite of other supply chain services designed to enhance operational efficiency.
GXO serves a broad and diverse client base across multiple industries that depend heavily on robust logistics. Its primary customers include companies in e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and consumer technology. Additionally, GXO supports businesses within the food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, and consumer packaged goods (CPG) sectors, catering to the unique logistical demands of each market.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe GXO Logistics:
-
Imagine the massive fulfillment centers and logistics behind Amazon, but GXO provides those exact services to thousands of other companies worldwide.
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If FedEx and UPS deliver packages, GXO is the company that manages the massive warehouses and entire supply chain operations that organize, store, and prepare all those products before they are shipped.
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- Warehousing and Distribution: Providing storage solutions and managing the movement of goods to various destinations.
- Order Fulfilment: Handling the entire process of receiving, processing, packing, and shipping customer orders.
- E-commerce Services: Offering specialized logistics support tailored for online retail operations, including direct-to-consumer fulfillment.
- Reverse Logistics / Returns Management: Managing the process of products moving from the end-user back to the seller or manufacturer, including returns, repairs, and recycling.
- Other Supply Chain Services: Providing a broad range of services aimed at optimizing and managing the overall flow of goods, information, and finances across the supply chain.
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- e-commerce
- Omnichannel retail
- Consumer technology
- Food and beverage
- Industrial and manufacturing
- Consumer packaged goods (CPG)
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Patrick Kelleher – Chief Executive Officer
Patrick Kelleher has over three decades of global supply chain experience. Prior to becoming CEO of GXO, he served as CEO, North America at DHL Supply Chain, where he led operations across e-commerce, consumer goods, and healthcare sectors, and drove operational gains and commercial growth. He was also global chief development officer and CEO, Americas for Williams Lea Tag when it operated under DHL's ownership. Kelleher was involved in the deployment of advanced robotics and oversaw four M&A transactions. He began his career in 1992 at XL Logistics, which was later acquired by DHL in 2005.
Mark Suchinski – Chief Financial Officer
Mark Suchinski is appointed as Chief Financial Officer, effective April 1, 2026. He brings over 30 years of experience in finance, operations, and supply chain management. Most recently, he served as Chief Financial Officer for The GEO Group, Inc., and before that, he was CFO of Spirit AeroSystems. Earlier in his career, Suchinski held positions as Chief Accounting Officer at Home Products International and Controller at US Freightways. He possesses significant expertise in the aerospace and defense sector.
Bart Beeks – Chief Operating Officer
Bart Beeks was appointed Chief Operating Officer, effective January 2, 2026, and is responsible for leading GXO's global operational excellence agenda. Prior to joining GXO, he spent his career at CEVA Logistics, progressing from an intern to Chief Operating Officer. In that role, he managed operations in more than 170 countries, significantly improved operating margins, and led the integration of multiple acquisitions. His previous roles at CEVA also include Executive Vice President in Benelux and Senior Vice President of Operational Excellence. Before his career in logistics, Beeks served as a Commanding Officer in the Dutch Special Forces.
Michael Jacobs – President, Americas and Asia Pacific
Michael Jacobs joined GXO as President, Americas and Asia Pacific, effective November 3. He previously served as Senior Vice President of Supply Chain at Ferguson Enterprises, Inc. At Ferguson, he led a large-scale transformation program across operations, which involved driving improvements in service levels and productivity through the deployment of robotics and automation, and enhancing demand forecasting and transit predictability using AI. His expertise spans the consumer packaged goods, retail, and industrial sectors.
Karen Bomber – Chief Commercial Officer
Karen Bomber was appointed Chief Commercial Officer, effective January 26, 2026, and is responsible for leading GXO's global go-to-market strategy. She brings over 25 years of experience in commercial strategy, transformation, and growth, with a background in the energy, industrial automation, and retail technology sectors. Prior to GXO, Bomber served as Chief Commercial Officer for ABB's Energy Industries division and held leadership roles in business development, marketing, and product management at Honeywell, InVue Security Products, and Tyco. She has a proven track record in building customer-centric strategies, launching new revenue streams, and establishing strategic partnerships.
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The key risks to GXO Logistics' business are primarily related to its financial structure, the highly competitive and operationally complex industry, and exposure to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
The most significant risk is the company's **financial leverage and debt obligations**. GXO Logistics carries a substantial debt load, with approximately $2.7 billion in total debt and $2.4 billion in net debt reported as of September 30, 2025. This high leverage increases the company's financial risk, potentially affecting its liquidity and access to capital, particularly during economic downturns.
Another key risk stems from the **intensely competitive nature of the contract logistics industry and associated operational challenges**. GXO operates in a highly fragmented and competitive global market, which puts pressure on pricing and service quality. The company faces ongoing challenges in managing labor costs, attracting, and retaining qualified employees. Furthermore, GXO's growth strategy, which includes strategic acquisitions such as Wincanton plc, introduces integration challenges and potential unanticipated liabilities, which can impact financial performance and strain management and operational resources.
Finally, GXO Logistics is significantly exposed to **macroeconomic and geopolitical risks**. Economic recessions and geopolitical tensions can lead to reduced consumer spending, consequently decreasing the demand for GXO's logistics services. The company's global operations also expose it to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, which can adversely affect its financial results.
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GXO Logistics operates within a significant addressable market across North America and Europe, estimated at approximately $430 billion. This market encompasses logistics spend that is currently outsourced, valued at $130 billion, as well as an additional $300 billion that remains insourced, presenting a substantial opportunity for expansion.
The company's main services include warehousing and distribution, order fulfillment, e-commerce, and reverse logistics.
- For **e-commerce logistics**, the global market size was valued at approximately USD 500.76 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 3,646.79 billion by 2035. Another estimate places the global e-commerce logistics market at USD 524.1 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 3,621.53 billion by 2034. North America held a significant share, accounting for 35.42% of the market in 2025.
- In **reverse logistics**, which involves returns management, the global market was valued at USD 839.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1,260.8 billion by 2034. Other reports indicate the global reverse logistics market size was USD 1.22 trillion in 2024, expected to reach around USD 4.04 trillion by 2034. North America dominated this market with a 48.47% share in 2025, and the U.S. market alone is projected to reach USD 358.36 billion by 2032. Europe's reverse logistics market was valued at USD 156.5 billion in 2025.
- The **global warehousing market** was estimated at USD 1.01 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 1.73 trillion by 2030. Similarly, the global warehousing and distribution logistics market was valued at USD 1.35 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2.11 trillion by 2034.
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GXO Logistics (NYSE: GXO) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Organic Growth through New Business Wins and Market Share Expansion: GXO Logistics consistently secures significant new business contracts, contributing to its organic revenue growth. The company has a robust sales pipeline and a high degree of revenue visibility due to long-term contractual agreements. This growth is further propelled by an accelerated momentum in priority business-to-business (B2B) growth verticals, including aerospace & defense, life sciences, industrial, and technology (specifically data centers), where GXO is increasing its market share by scaling with high-growth customers.
- Growth in E-commerce and Omnichannel Retail: The company continues to benefit from and expand within the e-commerce and omnichannel retail sectors. GXO's services, including warehousing, distribution, and order fulfillment, are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing expansion of these markets, which represents a significant structural tailwind for its operations.
- Impact of Strategic Acquisitions: Strategic acquisitions, such as the Wincanton acquisition, are expected to contribute to revenue growth and the realization of significant synergies. The integration of Wincanton is on track to deliver approximately $60 million in full run-rate synergies by the end of 2026, enhancing GXO's market presence and service offerings.
- Advanced Technology Adoption (AI and Robotics): GXO is committed to increasing the deployment of advanced technology, including artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, across its network. These investments are expected to be long-term drivers of efficiency and performance, optimizing warehouse management, strengthening competitive advantages, and attracting new clients seeking technologically advanced logistics solutions.
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Share Repurchases
- GXO Logistics' Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $500 million of its common stock on February 18, 2025.
- The company executed a stock repurchase of approximately $94 million in Q2 2025.
Share Issuance
- GXO Logistics was established in August 2021 as a spin-off from XPO Logistics.
- The separation involved a pro rata distribution of all outstanding GXO common stock to XPO's stockholders, with each XPO stockholder receiving one share of GXO for every one share of XPO held on the record date of July 23, 2021.
- GXO Logistics' shares outstanding were 0.116 billion in 2025, reflecting a 2.92% decline from 2024.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2022, GXO acquired Clipper Logistics, a UK-based provider of omni-channel retail logistics services, for approximately $1.1 billion.
- GXO acquired PFSweb, an e-commerce order-fulfillment platform, for $181 million in 2023, enhancing its warehousing presence in the U.K., Belgium, Canada, and the U.S.
- In April 2024, the company acquired UK-based Wincanton, a supply chain solutions provider, for an estimated $952 million to $958 million.
Capital Expenditures
- GXO's capital allocation strategy includes investing in growth and innovation, targeting approximately 3% of sales for capital expenditures, with 1% for maintenance and 2% for growth.
- The company plans to expand its AI-powered warehouse operating system to over 50 sites and deploy nearly 20,000 robots by year-end 2026, including humanoid pilots.
- Capital expenditures in Q4 2025 were approximately $55 million.
Peer Outperformance in Air Freight & Logistics
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 29.0% | 130.0% | 210.1% | CDNL 3150% · STRL 2271% · FIX 2195% |
| Marine Transportation | 4 | 65.3% | 63.9% | 164.2% | MATX 216% · KEX 164% · SFL 164% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 12.8% | 63.1% | 123.5% | CAT 334% · ALSN 272% · WAB 251% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | 14.2% | 69.9% | 83.1% | DFNS 2442% · ATI 1079% · FTAI 931% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -2.7% | 56.8% | 68.8% | UBER 97% · CAR 69% · LYFT -62% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 10.6% | 55.4% | 54.0% | CRS 1511% · PSIX 843% · GHM 739% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 37.7% | 73.2% | 46.8% | FSTR 119% · CSX 62% · UNP 52% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 45.8% | 12.0% | 45.7% | XPO 281% · R 274% · CVLG 222% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 18 | 5.6% | 34.8% | 44.1% | DXPE 532% · AIT 307% · URI 245% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 12.0% | 33.4% | 40.4% | LIME 4787% · TH 408% · WLFC 355% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 40 | 24.7% | 44.6% | 31.5% | POWL 2445% · BE 912% · VRT 882% |
| Building Products | 33 | -4.1% | 16.6% | 29.2% | GFF 423% · LMB 423% · PPIH 287% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 23.4% | 26.6% | 10.3% | RCMT 808% · TTI 182% · CSW 151% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 14.7% | 27.3% | 4.2% | TILE 199% · PBI 168% · EBF 57% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 28 | -8.1% | 16.9% | 3.3% | CECO 904% · ADUR 652% · NVRI 302% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -6.9% | -18.4% | -3.8% | HURN 226% · CRAI 98% · GRNQ 80% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | -3.3% | -10.5% | -17.6% | BLBD 196% · DE 89% · GENC 66% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -30.7% | -9.3% | -25.1% | EXLS 55% · BR 12% · G -24% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 8.8% | -8.6% | -26.1% | LTM 2372% · UAL 154% · SKYW 151% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 21 | 12.6% | -19.8% | -35.3% | BBSI 88% · ADP 47% · KFY 39% |
| Air Freight & Logistics ← | 12 | -13.3% | -25.2% | -36.6% | CHRW 83% · FDX 69% · EXPD 61% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -32.3% | -17.2% | -47.1% | CIX 121% · MG 101% · BCO 56% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -68.1% | -69.6% | -58.7% | JOBY -24% · ASLE -59% · UP -100% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 191.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.0 |
| Rev LTM | 12,777 |
| Op Inc LTM | 899 |
| FCF LTM | 652 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 363 |
| CFO LTM | 1,030 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 889 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.0 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.5 |
| P/EBIT | 20.5 |
| P/E | 32.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $45.37 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/22/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $50.24 | $53.18 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -9.7% | -14.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.1% | 40.4% |
| Downside Capture | 172.00 | 183.19 |
| Upside Capture | 137.91 | 127.93 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 45.6% | 49.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.49 | 1.59 | 1.51 | 1.23 |
| Up Beta | -1.38 | 0.23 | 0.86 | 1.62 | 1.54 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | 2.16 | 2.14 | 1.85 | 1.84 | 1.73 | 1.36 |
| Up Capture | 116% | 121% | 114% | 132% | 147% | 95% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 30 | 59 | 125 | 359 |
| Down Capture | 132% | 108% | 186% | 158% | 133% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 66 | 126 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GXO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | -15.0% | 40.4% | -0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.1% | 17.1% | 0.90 | 53.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.3% | 12.9% | 1.16 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 36.2% | 28.7% | 1.07 | 19.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.1% | 20.2% | 1.69 | -23.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.8% | 0.66 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -38.8% | 43.2% | -1.01 | 19.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GXO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | -9.6% | 42.7% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 57.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 56.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.4% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 11.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.6% | 0.40 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 49.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.3% | 52.7% | 0.36 | 24.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GXO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | -1.7% | 43.4% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 56.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 55.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.2% | 0.63 | 11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 48.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.1% | 1.01 | 22.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/20/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -9.1% | -10.9% | |
| 5/5/2026 | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.4% |
| 2/10/2026 | 9.2% | 12.8% | -9.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | -5.1% | -5.4% | -5.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% |
| 2/12/2025 | -15.1% | -6.7% | -6.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.5% | 2.6% | -13.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 6.4% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -5.6% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 23.3% | 20.2% |
| Max Negative | -15.1% | -13.5% | -13.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -9.1% | -10.9% | |
| 5/5/2026 | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.4% |
| 2/10/2026 | 9.2% | 12.8% | -9.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | -5.1% | -5.4% | -5.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% |
| 2/12/2025 | -15.1% | -6.7% | -6.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.5% | 2.6% | -13.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.8% | -5.9% | -1.9% |
| 5/7/2024 | -0.5% | 2.6% | -0.7% |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.2% | -2.9% | -9.0% |
| 11/7/2023 | 3.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/2/2023 | -1.7% | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | 2.9% | 8.2% | 16.5% |
| 2/14/2023 | -5.0% | -7.4% | -13.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | 1.3% | 23.3% | 20.2% |
| 8/2/2022 | 4.7% | -5.4% | -10.8% |
| 5/4/2022 | 1.0% | -13.5% | -11.8% |
| 2/15/2022 | 2.1% | -4.2% | -10.9% |
| 11/1/2021 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 6.4% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -5.6% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 23.3% | 20.2% |
| Max Negative | -15.1% | -13.5% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 07/19/2021 | 10-12B/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 945.00 Mil | 955.00 Mil | 965.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 955.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.05 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.35 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic revenue growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 935.00 Mil | 955.00 Mil | 975.00 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted diluted EPS | 2.9 | 3.05 | 3.2 | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 3 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow conversion | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.4 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.35 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 5.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 930.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 970.00 Mil | 8.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 875.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 2.85 | 3 | 3.15 | 18.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.53 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.4 | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.3 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Organic Revenue Growth | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 865.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | 885.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 875.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 2.43 | 2.53 | 2.63 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.53 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow Conversion | 0.25 | 0.3 | 0.35 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.3 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper, Todd C | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 50.59 | 6,000 | 303,540 | 507,924 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper, Todd C | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 50.59 | 6,000 | 303,540 | 507,924 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 21, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engaged Capital LLC | $42.6 Mil | 14.0% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Khrom Capital Management LLC | $103.1 Mil | 9.4% | 14 | ADD +63.5% | 13F |
| Arvin Capital Management LP | $27.2 Mil | 6.4% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $168.5 Mil | 6.0% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $44.1 Mil | 5.7% | 17 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.0 Mil | 3.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $8.5 Mil | 2.1% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $168.5 Mil | 6.0% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Khrom Capital Management LLC | $103.1 Mil | 9.4% | 14 | ADD +63.5% | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $44.1 Mil | 5.7% | 17 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| Engaged Capital LLC | $42.6 Mil | 14.0% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Arvin Capital Management LP | $27.2 Mil | 6.4% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.0 Mil | 3.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $8.5 Mil | 2.1% | 27 | New | 13F |
GXO Logistics — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Air Freight & Logistics Resources |
| Air Cargo World |
| Logistics Management |
| Journal of Commerce (JOC) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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