Gray Media (GTN-A)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.58 | Market Cap: $832.3 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Gray Media (GTN-A)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.58Market Cap: $832.3 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 47% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 584% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 584% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GTN-A Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Gray Media (GTN-A) experienced an approximate 20% decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors: **1. Weak Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Gray Media reported its Q2 2025 financial results on August 8, 2025, showing a 7% year-over-year decrease in total revenue, a 3% decrease in core advertising revenue, and a 1% decrease in retransmission consent revenue. **2. Forecast for Sliding Revenue and Analyst Concerns.** By September 8, 2025, analysts projected a 6.9% decrease in revenue for Gray Media in the upcoming year, which contributed to a low Price-to-Sales ratio for the company. **3. Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Decline and Cautious 2025 Outlook.** On November 7, 2025, Gray Media announced a 21.2% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q3 2025. Furthermore, the company's fiscal year 2025 revenue forecast of $3.07 billion to $3.085 billion fell short of market expectations, indicating a cautious outlook. **4. Concerns Over Dividend Sustainability and Declining Earnings Per Share Forecast.** An article on November 10, 2025, highlighted that Gray Media's dividend constituted a significant portion of its earnings. Earnings per share were forecast to fall by 11.9% over the next year, suggesting a potentially unsustainable payout ratio of 92%. **5. High Leverage and Tight Liquidity.** As of December 3, 2025, Gray Media exhibited a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.56 and tight quick and current ratios of 0.87, indicating significant financial leverage and liquidity concerns.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTN-A Return | -16% | 12% | -40% | -18% | -11% | 22% | -50% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 13% | -8% | -13% | 24% | 40% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTN-A Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 30% | 40% | 53% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTN-A Max Drawdown | -55% | -2% | -50% | -37% | -40% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -9% | -17% | -24% | -14% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WBD, FOXA, NXST, TGNA, SBGI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTN-A | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 246.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 455 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2180.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1815 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WBD, FOXA, NXST, TGNA, SBGI
In The Past
Gray Media's stock fell -71.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/2/2022. A -71.1% loss requires a 246.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Gray Media Stock Moved: GTN-A Stock Has Lost 47% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| Gray Media (GTN-A) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| GTN-A Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: PGEN, RUN, UP | Losers: NUTX, GTN-A, AMAT | August 16th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GTN-A. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gray Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,248 |
| Op Inc LTM | 893 |
| FCF LTM | 779 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 738 |
| CFO LTM | 866 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 837 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 4.5 |
| P/E | 10.8 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BOGER RICHARD LEE | 9112025 | Sell | 5.82 | 20,000 | 116,460 | 357,200 | Form | |
| 1 | Gignac Jeffrey R | Executive Vice President, CFO | 6092025 | Buy | 3.68 | 12,500 | 46,000 | 2,372,124 | Form |
| 2 | BOGER RICHARD LEE | 3042025 | Sell | 3.85 | 16,000 | 61,552 | 212,920 | Form | |
| 3 | McTear Paul | 12172024 | Sell | 3.77 | 17,780 | 67,020 | 359,450 | Form |
External Quote Links
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