Tearsheet

Gray Media (GTN-A)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.58 | Market Cap: $832.3 Mil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting

Gray Media (GTN-A)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.58
Market Cap: $832.3 Mil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Broadcasting

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 47%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 584%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 47%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 584%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GTN-A Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Gray Media (GTN-A) experienced an approximate 20% decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors: **1. Weak Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Gray Media reported its Q2 2025 financial results on August 8, 2025, showing a 7% year-over-year decrease in total revenue, a 3% decrease in core advertising revenue, and a 1% decrease in retransmission consent revenue. **2. Forecast for Sliding Revenue and Analyst Concerns.** By September 8, 2025, analysts projected a 6.9% decrease in revenue for Gray Media in the upcoming year, which contributed to a low Price-to-Sales ratio for the company. **3. Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Decline and Cautious 2025 Outlook.** On November 7, 2025, Gray Media announced a 21.2% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q3 2025. Furthermore, the company's fiscal year 2025 revenue forecast of $3.07 billion to $3.085 billion fell short of market expectations, indicating a cautious outlook. **4. Concerns Over Dividend Sustainability and Declining Earnings Per Share Forecast.** An article on November 10, 2025, highlighted that Gray Media's dividend constituted a significant portion of its earnings. Earnings per share were forecast to fall by 11.9% over the next year, suggesting a potentially unsustainable payout ratio of 92%. **5. High Leverage and Tight Liquidity.** As of December 3, 2025, Gray Media exhibited a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.56 and tight quick and current ratios of 0.87, indicating significant financial leverage and liquidity concerns.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GTN-A Return-16%12%-40%-18%-11%22%-50%
Peers Return-10%13%-8%-13%24%40%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GTN-A Win Rate33%58%42%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%45%30%40%53%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GTN-A Max Drawdown-55%-2%-50%-37%-40%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-9%-17%-24%-14%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WBD, FOXA, NXST, TGNA, SBGI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGTN-AS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven246.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven455 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven20 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-95.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2180.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1815 days1480 days

Compare to WBD, FOXA, NXST, TGNA, SBGI


In The Past

Gray Media's stock fell -71.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/2/2022. A -71.1% loss requires a 246.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gray Media (GTN-A)

Better Bets than Gray Media (GTN-A)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GTN-A. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Gray Media

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GTN-AWBDFOXANXSTTGNASBGIMedian
NameGray Med.Warner B.Fox Nexstar .Tegna Sinclair  
Mkt Price8.6124.5766.45190.9219.4015.1621.98
Mkt Cap0.860.929.75.83.11.14.5
Rev LTM3,34837,86316,4745,1483,0323,3374,248
Op Inc LTM6251,4123,2431,049737331893
FCF LTM4404,1342,665983576211779
FCF 3Y Avg3724,9251,834908568168738
CFO LTM5455,2303,0361,112619289866
CFO 3Y Avg6036,0712,1881,056617255837

Growth & Margins

GTN-AWBDFOXANXSTTGNASBGIMedian
NameGray Med.Warner B.Fox Nexstar .Tegna Sinclair  
Rev Chg LTM-3.3%-4.3%14.9%-1.4%5.9%-1.0%-1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.3%17.2%5.6%1.2%-0.4%-8.1%0.7%
Rev Chg Q-21.2%-6.0%4.9%-12.3%-5.0%-15.7%-9.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.7%-1.5%1.1%-3.2%-1.2%-4.1%-2.3%
Op Mgn LTM18.7%3.7%19.7%20.4%24.3%9.9%19.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.2%-0.5%18.4%19.8%23.8%5.2%18.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.6%1.2%-0.1%-2.4%-0.4%-3.7%-1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM16.3%13.8%18.4%21.6%20.4%8.7%17.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.5%15.2%14.2%20.5%20.3%7.7%16.4%
FCF/Rev LTM13.1%10.9%16.2%19.1%19.0%6.3%14.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%12.3%11.9%17.6%18.7%5.1%12.1%

Valuation

GTN-AWBDFOXANXSTTGNASBGIMedian
NameGray Med.Warner B.Fox Nexstar .Tegna Sinclair  
Mkt Cap0.860.929.75.83.11.14.5
P/S0.31.31.71.20.90.31.0
P/EBIT1.613.19.05.53.63.14.5
P/E10.099.813.911.65.9-23.410.8
P/CFO1.79.39.35.44.43.64.9
Total Yield13.4%1.0%8.2%12.3%19.8%2.3%10.3%
Dividend Yield3.4%0.0%1.0%3.7%3.0%6.6%3.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg48.6%18.3%8.5%16.7%19.8%21.7%19.1%
D/E6.00.70.31.11.24.01.1
Net D/E5.80.60.11.00.93.51.0

Returns

GTN-AWBDFOXANXSTTGNASBGIMedian
NameGray Med.Warner B.Fox Nexstar .Tegna Sinclair  
1M Rtn-7.1%10.2%4.4%-1.2%-1.6%12.8%1.6%
3M Rtn-12.6%106.1%10.6%-6.3%-8.4%9.5%1.6%
6M Rtn8.6%151.0%23.6%17.3%21.9%22.5%22.2%
12M Rtn21.6%132.9%44.5%16.8%7.5%-8.1%19.2%
3Y Rtn-16.1%112.7%112.5%16.8%5.1%-30.9%11.0%
1M Excs Rtn-7.1%10.3%4.5%-1.2%-1.6%12.8%1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-21.1%103.4%3.9%-12.1%-13.7%4.7%-4.1%
6M Excs Rtn-6.1%136.3%8.9%2.6%7.2%7.8%7.5%
12M Excs Rtn9.4%120.9%28.8%3.1%-7.3%-23.7%6.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-79.5%52.2%50.3%-50.2%-65.1%-103.7%-57.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Broadcasting9,89710,44410,5926,631 
Production Companies658535269141 
Other85173247871 
Total10,64011,15211,1087,643 


Price Behavior

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0BOGER RICHARD LEE 9112025Sell5.8220,000116,460357,200Form
1Gignac Jeffrey RExecutive Vice President, CFO6092025Buy3.6812,50046,0002,372,124Form
2BOGER RICHARD LEE 3042025Sell3.8516,00061,552212,920Form
3McTear Paul 12172024Sell3.7717,78067,020359,450Form