GitLab (GTLB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.85 | Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
GitLab (GTLB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.85Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -85 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Key risksGTLB key risks include [1] competitive pressure from AI tools undermining its core seat-based revenue model and [2] a history of unprofitability creating pressure to justify its high-growth valuation. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Digital Transformation & Software Innovation. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Digital Transformation & Software Innovation. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -85 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% |
| Key risksGTLB key risks include [1] competitive pressure from AI tools undermining its core seat-based revenue model and [2] a history of unprofitability creating pressure to justify its high-growth valuation. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GTLB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. GitLab's shares plunged in March 2024 due to disappointing full-year fiscal 2025 earnings guidance. The company projected adjusted earnings per share between 19 and 23 cents, which was significantly below Wall Street's expectation of 35 cents per share.
2. Concurrently, investor concerns were amplified by GitLab's inability to provide a timeline for the deconsolidation of its JiHu China joint venture. This added to the uncertainty surrounding the company's future financial structure and operations.
3. In June 2025, GitLab's stock experienced a further decline following the issuance of what was described as "conservative guidance." This contributed to the stock being down more than 20% for the year at that time.
4. A notable deceleration in revenue growth and a decrease in the Net Revenue Retention Rate in December 2025 led to a sharp sell-off. GitLab's third-quarter fiscal year 2026 results, while beating earnings expectations, included a fourth-quarter revenue forecast implying year-over-year growth below 20%, a significant slowdown. Additionally, the Net Revenue Retention Rate slipped from 121% to 119%.
5. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions in late 2025 reflected growing concerns about the company's growth trajectory. For instance, Macquarie downgraded the stock from "outperform" to "neutral" and lowered its price objective from $70.00 to $40.00 in December 2025, and KeyBanc also downgraded GitLab.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTLB Return | � | � | -48% | 39% | -10% | -32% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 37% | -44% | 63% | 3% | 16% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTLB Win Rate | � | 0% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 32% | 60% | 48% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTLB Max Drawdown | � | � | -62% | -41% | -35% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -21% | -52% | -10% | -23% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, TEAM, DDOG, FROG, DT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 388.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to NTNX, MANH, CFLT, PATH, CHOW
In The Past
GitLab's stock fell -79.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -79.5% loss requires a 388.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| GitLab Earnings Notes | |||
| Can GitLab Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| How Does GitLab Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| GTLB Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| GitLab (GTLB) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Should You Buy GitLab Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| GitLab (GTLB) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| GitLab (GTLB) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| GitLab (GTLB) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| GitLab (GTLB) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| GitLab Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | December 4th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With GitLab Stock? | October 17th, 2025 | ||
| How To Trade Gitlab Stock Ahead Of Earnings? | June 4th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GTLB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GitLab
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 100.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | -64 |
| FCF LTM | 669 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 555 |
| CFO LTM | 748 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 615 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.9 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| P/EBIT | -14.4 |
| P/E | -20.3 |
| P/CFO | 28.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -22.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/2/2025 | -12.8% | -10.0% | |
| 9/3/2025 | -7.4% | 4.5% | -0.9% |
| 6/10/2025 | -10.6% | -13.7% | -12.2% |
| 3/3/2025 | 11.6% | -9.4% | -15.3% |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.7% | -7.6% | -8.3% |
| 9/3/2024 | 21.6% | 25.8% | 12.4% |
| 6/3/2024 | -4.9% | -5.9% | 13.0% |
| 3/4/2024 | -21.0% | -24.2% | -24.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.5% | 22.8% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -10.6% | -11.9% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 31.2% | 72.4% | 48.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.9% | -24.2% | -24.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12032025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6112025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6042024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3262024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12052023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3302023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 4082022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |