Gates Industrial (GTES)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.195 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Gates Industrial (GTES)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.195Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GTES Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Gates Industrial reported third-quarter 2025 organic revenue growth of 1.7%, which fell short of the 2.7% consensus estimate, leading to an immediate stock decline.
2. Management provided a more cautious outlook and narrowed its full-year 2025 core revenue growth guidance, citing subdued macroeconomic conditions and ongoing weakness in industrial and agriculture demand.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTES Return | -7% | 25% | -28% | 18% | 53% | 8% | 62% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 42% | -5% | 52% | 36% | 24% | 359% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTES Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 60% | 46% | 67% | 67% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTES Max Drawdown | -56% | -2% | -39% | -6% | -7% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -6% | -31% | -4% | -14% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GE, ACM, AAON, MYRG, ADVEN. See GTES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTES | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 751 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1910 days | 120 days |
Compare to GE, ACM, AAON, MYRG, ADVEN
In The Past
Gates Industrial's stock fell -48.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -48.4% loss requires a 93.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GTES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 12312024 | GTES | Gates Industrial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 13.7% | 8.1% | -24.4% |
| 05312023 | GTES | Gates Industrial | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 47.4% | -8.3% |
| 04302022 | GTES | Gates Industrial | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.0% | 5.6% | -23.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 12312024 | GTES | Gates Industrial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 13.7% | 8.1% | -24.4% |
| 05312023 | GTES | Gates Industrial | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 47.4% | -8.3% |
| 04302022 | GTES | Gates Industrial | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.0% | 5.6% | -23.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gates Industrial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,514 |
| Op Inc LTM | 494 |
| FCF LTM | 285 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 345 |
| CFO LTM | 399 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 439 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Transmission | 2,191 | 2,174 | 2,216 | 1,800 | 1,946 |
| Fluid Power | 1,379 | 1,380 | 1,258 | 993 | 1,141 |
| Total | 3,570 | 3,554 | 3,474 | 2,793 | 3,087 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Transmission | 461 | 404 | 501 | 353 | 413 |
| Fluid Power | 286 | 277 | 235 | 154 | 198 |
| Asset impairments | -0 | -1 | -1 | -5 | -1 |
| Other items not directly related to current operations | -0 | -0 | 9 | 3 | -3 |
| Restructuring-related expenses (included in cost of sales) | -0 | -1 | -1 | -4 | |
| Restructuring-related expenses (included in selling, general and administrative (SG&A)) | -1 | -0 | -1 | -8 | -3 |
| Transaction-related expenses | -2 | -2 | -4 | -5 | -3 |
| Cybersecurity incident expenses | -5 | 0 | |||
| Inventory impairments and adjustments (included in cost of sales) | -7 | -21 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Credit loss related to customer bankruptcy (included in selling, general and administrative | -11 | 0 | |||
| Restructuring expenses | -12 | -10 | -7 | -37 | -6 |
| Share-based compensation expense | -27 | -44 | -25 | -20 | -15 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -218 | -217 | -223 | -219 | -222 |
| Sponsor fees (included in other operating (income) expenses) | -2 | -6 | |||
| Total | 463 | 384 | 484 | 211 | 347 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |