Tearsheet

Gates Industrial (GTES)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.35 | Market Cap: $5.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Gates Industrial (GTES)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.35
Market Cap: $5.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
Key risks
GTES key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on cyclical industrial and automotive markets, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%
4 Key risks
GTES key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on cyclical industrial and automotive markets, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GTES Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Full-Year 2024 Earnings and Revenue Decline: Gates Industrial experienced a notable decrease in its full-year 2024 earnings, which dropped by 16.32%, alongside a 4.54% decline in revenue compared to the prior year.

2. Weakness in Key Industrial End Markets: Throughout 2024 and anticipated to continue into 2025, the company faced reduced demand in critical industrial sectors, most notably Agriculture, Construction, and heavy-duty trucking. This directly impacted net sales across both its Power Transmission and Fluid Power segments.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GTES Return-7%25%-28%18%53%5%57%
Peers Return26%19%-7%39%23%16%177%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GTES Win Rate50%58%42%50%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate62%62%35%60%60%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GTES Max Drawdown-56%-2%-39%-6%-7%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-10%-26%-5%-6%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PH, ETN, RRX, TKR, FLS. See GTES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGTESS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven751 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-56.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven128.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven301 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,910 days120 days

Compare to GE, ACM, AAON, MYRG, ADVEN


In The Past

Gates Industrial's stock fell -48.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -48.4% loss requires a 93.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gates Industrial (GTES)

Better Bets than Gates Industrial (GTES)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GTES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
GTES_12312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312024GTESGates IndustrialQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
13.7%5.0%-24.4%
GTES_5312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312023GTESGates IndustrialDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%47.4%-8.3%
GTES_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022GTESGates IndustrialDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.0%5.6%-23.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
GTES_12312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312024GTESGates IndustrialQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
13.7%5.0%-24.4%
GTES_5312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312023GTESGates IndustrialDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%47.4%-8.3%
GTES_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022GTESGates IndustrialDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.0%5.6%-23.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Gates Industrial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GTESPHETNRRXTKRFLSMedian
NameGates In.Parker H.Eaton Regal Re.Timken Flowserve 
Mkt Price21.35863.19315.82141.6384.1469.20112.88
Mkt Cap5.5109.2122.89.45.99.09.2
Rev LTM3,41620,03026,6335,8724,5444,6875,280
Op Inc LTM4944,1375,049653566462610
FCF LTM2853,3853,322936390629783
FCF 3Y Avg3453,0813,114673371367522
CFO LTM3993,8144,1041,036550703870
CFO 3Y Avg4393,4883,881782544442663

Growth & Margins

GTESPHETNRRXTKRFLSMedian
NameGates In.Parker H.Eaton Regal Re.Timken Flowserve 
Rev Chg LTM-0.7%0.2%8.2%-5.0%-1.0%3.2%-0.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.5%7.4%9.7%4.5%1.0%10.5%6.0%
Rev Chg Q3.0%3.7%10.1%1.3%2.7%3.6%3.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%0.9%2.5%0.3%0.7%0.9%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM14.5%20.7%19.0%11.1%12.5%9.9%13.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.8%19.1%17.8%10.2%13.6%9.0%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%0.2%0.1%-0.0%0.1%-0.6%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM11.7%19.0%15.4%17.6%12.1%15.0%15.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.5%17.5%15.8%13.1%11.7%9.7%12.8%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%16.9%12.5%15.9%8.6%13.4%12.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%15.5%12.6%11.3%8.0%8.0%10.6%

Valuation

GTESPHETNRRXTKRFLSMedian
NameGates In.Parker H.Eaton Regal Re.Timken Flowserve 
Mkt Cap5.5109.2122.89.45.99.09.2
P/S1.94.85.51.61.21.51.7
P/EBIT13.520.529.014.49.69.913.9
P/E27.026.337.137.017.615.326.7
P/CFO16.025.135.59.29.59.812.9
Total Yield3.7%4.7%3.0%2.9%7.5%7.3%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.3%0.2%1.9%0.8%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.7%4.3%2.7%6.8%6.9%5.5%6.2%
D/E0.40.10.10.50.40.20.3
Net D/E0.30.10.10.50.30.10.2

Returns

GTESPHETNRRXTKRFLSMedian
NameGates In.Parker H.Eaton Regal Re.Timken Flowserve 
1M Rtn-0.2%5.1%-7.9%9.3%13.6%5.5%5.3%
3M Rtn-15.2%17.1%-12.8%1.2%9.6%23.5%5.4%
6M Rtn-2.7%32.9%-5.2%1.9%20.3%50.2%11.1%
12M Rtn-2.0%30.9%-7.8%-12.0%14.6%17.5%6.3%
3Y Rtn92.9%213.2%113.4%27.0%27.4%151.4%103.1%
1M Excs Rtn-0.9%4.4%-8.6%8.6%12.8%4.7%4.6%
3M Excs Rtn-18.8%13.1%-16.1%-3.0%5.5%19.1%1.2%
6M Excs Rtn-15.1%20.6%-17.5%-10.5%7.9%37.9%-1.3%
12M Excs Rtn-14.0%18.7%-21.2%-26.4%2.4%4.9%-5.8%
3Y Excs Rtn23.4%134.1%36.6%-51.9%-43.8%75.4%30.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Power Transmission2,1912,1742,2161,8001,946
Fluid Power1,3791,3801,2589931,141
Total3,5703,5543,4742,7933,087


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Power Transmission461404501353413
Fluid Power286277235154198
Asset impairments-0-1-1-5-1
Other items not directly related to current operations-0-093-3
Restructuring-related expenses (included in cost of sales)-0-1 -1-4
Restructuring-related expenses (included in selling, general and administrative (SG&A))-1-0-1-8-3
Transaction-related expenses-2-2-4-5-3
Cybersecurity incident expenses-50   
Inventory impairments and adjustments (included in cost of sales)-7-21-1-1-1
Credit loss related to customer bankruptcy (included in selling, general and administrative-110   
Restructuring expenses-12-10-7-37-6
Share-based compensation expense-27-44-25-20-15
Depreciation and amortization-218-217-223-219-222
Sponsor fees (included in other operating (income) expenses)   -2-6
Total463384484211347


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,746,959
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.8%
Average Daily Volume2,273,088
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.85
Basic Shares Quantity257,905,020
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-12.9%-16.8%-13.1%
7/30/20251.3%-2.2%4.9%
4/30/20255.2%11.8%18.9%
2/6/202511.8%6.8%-4.5%
10/30/20245.7%10.8%21.1%
7/31/20244.9%-8.3%0.3%
5/1/2024-6.8%-6.6%-1.9%
8/4/2023-1.6%-12.1%-7.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141212
# Negative81010
Median Positive5.0%7.2%5.5%
Median Negative-4.1%-7.4%-7.9%
Max Positive11.8%11.8%34.2%
Max Negative-12.9%-16.8%-22.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023504202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022805202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022504202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021211202210-K 1/1/2022