Timken (TKR)
Market Price (10/7/2026): $114.88 | Market Cap: $8.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Timken (TKR)
Market Price (10/7/2026): $114.88Market Cap: $8.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1% Key risksTKR key risks include [1] an estimated direct financial impact of approximately $25 million from tariffs for 2025. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1% |
| Key risksTKR key risks include [1] an estimated direct financial impact of approximately $25 million from tariffs for 2025. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Timken (TKR) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Investors focused on a decelerated growth outlook for the second half of fiscal 2026, despite Timken's stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 earnings. While Timken reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.83, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.21, and revenue of $1.26 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.2% for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), the stock declined. This was primarily due to investors concentrating on anticipated slower growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 and higher aerospace capacity expansion costs.
2. A significant year-over-year decline in net income and operating margin impacted investor confidence during fiscal Q2 2026. Timken's net income attributable to the company in fiscal Q2 2026 decreased by 63.2% year-over-year to $28.9 million. Concurrently, its operating margin fell to 6.7% from 12.6% in the prior year's comparable quarter. This decline was largely attributed to a $94.4 million impairment charge related to the divestiture of its belts business.
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Timken (TKR) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Investors focused on a decelerated growth outlook for the second half of fiscal 2026, despite Timken's stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 earnings. While Timken reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.83, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.21, and revenue of $1.26 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.2% for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), the stock declined. This was primarily due to investors concentrating on anticipated slower growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 and higher aerospace capacity expansion costs.
2. A significant year-over-year decline in net income and operating margin impacted investor confidence during fiscal Q2 2026. Timken's net income attributable to the company in fiscal Q2 2026 decreased by 63.2% year-over-year to $28.9 million. Concurrently, its operating margin fell to 6.7% from 12.6% in the prior year's comparable quarter. This decline was largely attributed to a $94.4 million impairment charge related to the divestiture of its belts business.
3. The presence of non-recurring tariff refunds in fiscal Q2 2026 raised concerns about future earnings sustainability. Timken's fiscal Q2 2026 results included an $8 million net benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. However, management indicated that these tariff refunds are not expected to recur in the second half of fiscal 2026, suggesting a potential headwind for future earnings performance.
4. The stock experienced a correction following an all-time high and increasing concerns about its valuation. Timken's stock reached an all-time high of $146.37 on June 29, 2026, following a rally of approximately 57% year-to-date by mid-August 2026. Despite a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from analysts with an average price target of $147.00, some market participants considered the stock overvalued, leading to profit-taking and a subsequent approximately 20% decline from its peak.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.5% change in TKR stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 144.93 | 119.54 | -17.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,673 | 4,760 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 5.4% | -17.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.7 | 32.1 | -1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 69 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | -17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 24.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | -7.4% | 54.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.6% change in TKR stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.98 | 119.54 | 19.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,582 | 4,760 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 5.4% | -13.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 32.1 | 33.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 69 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 19.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.1% | 44.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.4% | 71.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.2% change in TKR stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 74.17 | 119.54 | 61.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,514 | 4,760 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.9% | 5.4% | -20.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.7 | 32.1 | 92.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 69 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 61.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 52.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 75.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 70.7% change in TKR stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 175.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.03 | 119.54 | 70.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,754 | 4,760 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 5.4% | -40.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.7 | 32.1 | 175.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 69 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 70.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 70.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.5% | 56.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 76.0% | 71.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TKR Return | -9% | 4% | 15% | -9% | 20% | 44% | 71% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -15% | 37% | 19% | 22% | 12% | 153% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TKR Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 57% | 58% | 65% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TKR Max Drawdown | -29% | -30% | -27% | -23% | -31% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -33% | -23% | -15% | -28% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RBC, RRX, PH, ITT, DOV. See TKR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Timken's stock fell -30.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 44.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Timken's stock fell -30.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 44.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Timken (TKR)
Timken (TKR) is a global industrial company specializing in engineered bearings and power transmission products. The company designs, manufactures, and manages these critical components, which are essential for enabling machinery and equipment to operate efficiently and reliably. Timken serves a wide array of markets worldwide through two primary segments: Mobile Industries and Process Industries.
The Mobile Industries segment focuses on components for various vehicles and heavy equipment. This includes a comprehensive portfolio of bearings, seals, lubrication systems, and power transmission products like chains, belts, and clutches. Its customers are primarily original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users in off-highway markets such as agriculture, construction, and mining, as well as on-highway vehicles including passenger cars, light and heavy-duty trucks, and rail. Additionally, this segment supplies flight-critical components and transmission systems for civil and military aircraft, selling parts through authorized distributors to end-users and maintenance shops.
The Process Industries segment caters to a broad range of industrial applications. It provides industrial bearings, assemblies, gears, gearboxes, linear motion products, and other power transmission components such as couplings and seals. This segment supports OEMs and end-users across diverse industries, offering both new products and essential aftermarket sales and services through authorized industrial distributors. Timken also provides specialized repair and maintenance services for industrial bearings, gearboxes, and electric motors, ensuring the longevity and performance of critical industrial machinery.
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Analogy 1: The Bosch of industrial and mobile bearings and power transmission.
Analogy 2: The Intel for how the world's heavy equipment, vehicles, and factory machines rotate and move.
Analogy 3: A specialized version of Dana Inc. or ZF Friedrichshafen, focused on the bearings and gear systems that power a wide range of vehicles and industrial machinery.
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The Timken Company (TKR) major products and services include:
- Engineered Bearings: Designs and manufactures a wide range of bearings, seals, and assemblies for various mobile and industrial applications.
- Power Transmission Products: Provides components such as gears, gearboxes, chains, belts, couplings, clutches, brakes, and linear motion products for power transfer.
- Lubrication Systems & Lubricants: Offers lubrication devices, systems, and lubricants essential for the performance and longevity of machinery.
- Aerospace Flight-Critical Components: Develops specialized bearings, gears, housings, and complete power transmission systems for civil and military aircraft.
- Industrial Repair & Maintenance Services: Provides repair, service, and maintenance for bearings, gearboxes, and electric motors, ensuring operational efficiency for end-users.
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The Timken Company (TKR) primarily sells its products and services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B). The provided company description does not list specific customer company names. However, it identifies several major categories of corporate customers:
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): These customers integrate Timken's engineered bearings and power transmission products into a wide array of equipment and vehicles. This includes OEMs for:
- Off-highway equipment for agricultural, construction, mining, outdoor power, and power sports markets.
- On-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, rail cars, and locomotives.
- Civil and military aircraft, requiring flight-critical components like bearings, rotor-head assemblies, and transmission systems.
- Various industrial machinery and systems across diverse industries.
- Industrial End-Users: These are companies across various industries that utilize and maintain industrial machinery and equipment. They purchase Timken's products and services, including industrial bearings and assemblies, power transmission components, linear motion products, couplings, seals, lubricants, chains, belts, and related services (such as repair and service for bearings, gearboxes, and electric motor rewind).
- Authorized Distributors: Timken utilizes networks of authorized automotive, heavy-truck, and industrial distributors. These distributors serve as key intermediaries for aftermarket sales and service, reaching individual end-users, equipment owners, operators, and maintenance shops.
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Lucian Boldea - President and Chief Executive Officer
Lucian Boldea joined The Timken Company in 2025 as President and Chief Executive Officer. He brings over 25 years of global leadership experience across industrial technology, advanced manufacturing, and digital automation. Prior to Timken, Boldea served as President and CEO of Honeywell Industrial Automation, a global business segment with over $10 billion in sales. He also previously led Honeywell Performance Materials and Technologies. Before his time at Honeywell, Boldea was an executive vice president at Eastman Chemical Company, where he was noted for scaling businesses, accelerating innovation, and instilling operational and financial discipline across global teams.
Michael A. Discenza - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael A. Discenza was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Timken Company in 2025. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing the company's global finance and accounting organizations, managing investor relations, and contributing to Timken's strategy focused on profitable organic growth, operational excellence, and effective capital deployment.
Timothy A. Graham - Executive Vice President and President of Industrial Motion
Timothy A. Graham serves as Executive Vice President and President of Industrial Motion at The Timken Company.
Hansal N. Patel - Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Hansal N. Patel is Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of The Timken Company, having been named an executive officer in 2019. He acts as a legal advisor to the company's senior leadership and Board of Directors. Patel oversees a global legal team responsible for Timken's worldwide legal affairs, which include securities, mergers and acquisitions, corporate counseling, litigation, ethics, compliance, and government affairs. He is also responsible for the company's corporate governance initiatives and global Environmental, Health & Safety (EH&S).
Natasha Pollock - Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Natasha Pollock holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at The Timken Company, a role she assumed in 2022. She leads a global HR team focused on fostering a performance-driven environment that encourages new ideas and impactful solutions. Pollock has been instrumental in the company's geographic expansion through her development of Timken's global HR strategy, talent, and culture, and is recognized for her expertise in leadership and talent development, complex organizational change management, and employee engagement.
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- Dependence on Economic Cycles and Industrial Demand: The demand for Timken's engineered bearings and power transmission products is closely tied to global industrial business cycles. Economic downturns or slowdowns in key sectors, such as automotive, agriculture, construction, mining, and heavy industry, can adversely affect the company's sales and profitability. The company has experienced slight year-over-year revenue declines due to softness in global industrial markets, particularly in Europe and a downturn in China's renewable energy market.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure: Timken operates in a highly competitive global market, facing significant competition from both domestic and international players, including major rivals like SKF, Schaeffler, NSK, NTN, and JTEKT. This intense competition can impact market penetration, pricing strategies, and overall profitability, especially from Asian manufacturers offering commoditized bearings.
- Supply Chain Disruptions, Tariffs, and Raw Material/Energy Cost Volatility: As a global manufacturer, Timken's operations are susceptible to disruptions in its supply chain, which can arise from factors such as trade conflicts, tariffs, and logistical challenges. These disruptions can lead to increased costs and production delays. Furthermore, fluctuations in raw material and energy costs can compress profit margins.
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Addressable Markets for The Timken Company (TKR)
- Industrial Bearings: The global industrial bearings market was valued at approximately US$ 185.5 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to about US$ 398.7 billion by the end of 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2025 to 2035.
- Aerospace Bearings: The global aerospace bearings market is estimated to be valued at approximately US$ 13.9 billion in 2026. This market is expected to grow to about US$ 21.7 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.6% between 2026 and 2033.
- Mechanical Power Transmission Products: The global mechanical power transmission products market is projected to expand from approximately US$ 65.15 billion in 2025 to about US$ 91.30 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 4.31%.
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- Strategic Pricing Actions: Timken anticipates continued organic revenue growth through strategic pricing initiatives across both its Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments. Pricing actions consistently contributed to top-line benefits in previous quarters and are projected to be a factor in the company's 2026 revenue outlook.
- Expansion in High-Growth and Automation Markets: The company is focusing on and experiencing growth in high-value sectors, including renewable energy, aerospace, and general industrial markets. Notably, the Industrial Motion segment has shown strong organic growth, particularly driven by increasing demand in industrial automation and linear motion technologies. Timken is also actively exploring new high-value verticals, such as medical robotics.
- Portfolio Optimization and Strategic Acquisitions: Timken's "80/20" portfolio discipline is a key strategy aimed at structurally improving margins by focusing on higher-growth and higher-margin businesses. This simplification and focus on lucrative sectors are expected to contribute to more efficient and profitable revenue generation. Furthermore, the company continues to integrate acquisitions, such as the CGI acquisition, and seeks to drive synergies from these strategic additions to accelerate global revenue growth.
- New Product and Service Innovation: A stated focus for Timken is to launch new products and services to enhance its organic growth algorithm. These innovations are expected to fuel better top-line performance by addressing evolving customer needs and market demands.
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Share Repurchases
- The Timken Company's board approved a new share repurchase plan, effective March 1, 2026, authorizing the buyback of up to 10 million outstanding common shares through February 28, 2031.
- Timken repurchased $250.9 million of its stock in 2023.
- The company repurchased $57.4 million of its stock in 2025 and $40.5 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Timken's Net Issuance of Common Stock for December 31, 2025, was -$55.5 million, indicating that repurchases exceeded issuances.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2024, Timken finalized the acquisition of CGI, Inc., a manufacturer of precision drive systems, expanding its presence in the automation market, particularly in medical robotics.
- During 2023, Timken completed the acquisition of Nadella Group, a European manufacturer of linear guides and specialized industrial motion solutions, which had approximately €100 million in revenue in 2022.
- In early 2023, Timken acquired Engineered Solutions Group (iMECH) for an undisclosed amount, a manufacturer of thrust and radial bearings for the energy industry, which projected around $30 million in revenue for that year. The company also acquired the assets of American Roller Bearing Company for $32 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $148.2 million in 2025, $170 million in 2024, and $187.8 million in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately 3.5% of sales.
Peer Outperformance in Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | Timken | 0.1% | 32.1x | 57.9% | 70.7% | 89.6% | — |
| NPO | Enpro | 3.6% | 158.9x | 42.9% | 176.5% | 284.3% | +195pp |
| GRC | Gorman-Rupp | 3.6% | 32.7x | 67.5% | 151.5% | 125.6% | +36pp |
| VMI | Valmont Industries | -0.7% | 19.7x | 22.4% | 110.2% | 111.6% | +22pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 10.7% | 133.3% | 197.3% | STRL 2288% · FIX 2276% · CDNL 2109% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 89.4% | 70.5% | 178.3% | HOS 40532% · MATX 190% · KEX 178% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 1.9% | 50.2% | 101.2% | CAT 381% · ALSN 254% · WAB 232% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -14.6% | 63.3% | 73.5% | ATI 1047% · FTAI 933% · HWM 631% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components ← | 72 | 11.2% | 51.8% | 51.6% | PSIX 1145% · CRS 1143% · EROC 684% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 7.3% | 38.3% | 49.1% | DXPE 509% · AIT 277% · WCC 231% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 19.0% | 60.3% | 46.1% | FSTR 124% · CSX 58% · RAIL 55% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | 0.9% | 60.5% | 30.9% | POWL 2471% · BE 1444% · VRT 1000% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 31.6% | 2.8% | 29.9% | XPO 275% · R 218% · CVLG 148% |
| Diversified Support Services | 32 | 8.7% | 29.8% | 28.9% | LIME 3079% · TH 354% · CXW 254% |
| Building Products | 33 | -13.0% | 4.2% | 15.6% | LMB 713% · GFF 346% · PPIH 282% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 9.1% | 2.4% | -1.2% | RCMT 585% · CSW 124% · DD 73% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 13.3% | 3.5% | -4.2% | BLBD 179% · DE 112% · GENC 65% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -27.5% | 42.1% | -6.2% | UBER 44% · CAR -6% · LYFT -71% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -26.3% | 14.6% | -10.7% | CECO 936% · ADUR 434% · NVRI 322% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -11.5% | -28.6% | -17.2% | HURN 212% · CRAI 70% · GRNQ 22% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -37.6% | 37.5% | -17.5% | CIX 167% · MG 119% · BCO 69% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 17.3% | 20.6% | -27.5% | PBI 174% · TILE 128% · HNI 48% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -34.8% | -15.1% | -27.7% | EXLS 42% · BR 3% · G -25% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 12.6% | 23.1% | -33.8% | LTM 3384% · UAL 126% · DAL 98% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -25.7% | -25.8% | -37.9% | FDX 79% · EXPD 76% · CHRW 70% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 2.6% | -21.1% | -42.5% | BBSI 66% · ADP 41% · KFY 2% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -78.6% | -78.5% | -71.8% | JOBY -37% · ASLE -72% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| TKR Stock Surges 17% With A 7-day Spree On Keybanc Upgrade To $130 | 02/11/2026 | |
| Timken Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| Is Timken Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Timken vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Timken vs Owens-Corning: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Timken Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than TKR Stock: Pay Less Than Timken To Get More From UNH, HCA | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than TKR Stock: Pay Less Than Timken To Get More From UAL, OC | 08/12/2025 | |
| TKR Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 06/21/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 194.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,409 |
| Op Inc LTM | 696 |
| FCF LTM | 488 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 553 |
| CFO LTM | 594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 664 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineered Bearings | 3,018 | 3,034 | 3,258 | 3,093 | 2,815 |
| Industrial Motion | 1,564 | 1,539 | 1,511 | 1,404 | 1,318 |
| Total | 4,582 | 4,573 | 4,769 | 4,497 | 4,133 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Bearings | 73 | ||||
| Steel Operation | 29 | 9 | 44 | 74 | 126 |
| Automotive Bearings | 15 | ||||
| Bearing Operation | 80 | 133 | 163 | ||
| Total | 116 | 9 | 124 | 207 | 289 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineered Bearings | 3,294 | 3,126 | 3,297 | ||
| Industrial Motion | 2,963 | 2,823 | 2,744 | ||
| Corporate | 420 | 462 | 500 | 437 | 406 |
| Mobile Industries | 2,372 | 2,216 | |||
| Process Industries | 2,963 | 2,548 | |||
| Total | 6,677 | 6,411 | 6,542 | 5,772 | 5,171 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $119.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $123.84 | $114.48 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.5% | 4.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.0% | 33.8% |
| Downside Capture | 150.82 | 127.42 |
| Upside Capture | 47.34 | 157.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.0% | 52.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.12 | -0.10 | 0.69 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.20 |
| Up Beta | -2.15 | -2.10 | -0.67 | 1.17 | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| Down Beta | 0.76 | 0.23 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| Up Capture | 15% | -5% | 48% | 154% | 211% | 173% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 31 | 65 | 129 | 381 |
| Down Capture | 67% | 153% | 177% | 149% | 117% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 61 | 123 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TKR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 58.6% | 33.7% | 1.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.1% | 17.3% | 0.49 | 75.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.5% | 13.0% | 0.96 | 52.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 6.9% | 29.6% | 0.23 | 25.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.1% | 20.8% | 1.71 | -18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 13.7% | -0.10 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.3% | -0.67 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TKR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 13.5% | 33.0% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 74.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 60.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.9% | 0.80 | 8.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.5% | 0.40 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 48.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.0% | 52.2% | 0.47 | 22.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TKR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 15.8% | 35.9% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 76.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 64.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 24.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 50.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.1% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 16.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -6.9% | -10.7% | -15.8% |
| 5/6/2026 | 9.2% | 6.8% | 22.3% |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.0% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.6% | -1.2% | 5.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.7% | -7.8% | -2.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 3.5% | 4.1% | -2.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | -12.9% | -8.2% | -6.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.6% | -5.3% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -5.3% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 13.8% | 32.6% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -14.3% | -16.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -6.9% | -10.7% | -15.8% |
| 5/6/2026 | 9.2% | 6.8% | 22.3% |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.0% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.6% | -1.2% | 5.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.7% | -7.8% | -2.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 3.5% | 4.1% | -2.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | -12.9% | -8.2% | -6.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.6% | -5.3% | -2.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.9% | 3.4% | -2.7% |
| 2/5/2024 | -4.4% | -3.9% | -2.8% |
| 11/1/2023 | -0.5% | 2.2% | 5.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | -9.2% | -14.3% | -16.0% |
| 5/3/2023 | -0.7% | -2.6% | -5.1% |
| 2/6/2023 | -4.2% | -3.2% | 0.7% |
| 10/26/2022 | -0.8% | 5.4% | 9.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 8.3% |
| 5/2/2022 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 6.5% |
| 2/3/2022 | 0.3% | 0.7% | -4.3% |
| 11/1/2021 | 2.1% | 2.5% | -6.8% |
| 8/2/2021 | -6.0% | -4.4% | -5.2% |
| 4/28/2021 | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| 2/4/2021 | -8.4% | -7.7% | 1.1% |
| 10/29/2020 | 2.8% | 6.4% | 32.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -5.3% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 13.8% | 32.6% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -14.3% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 3.75 | 3.9 | 4.05 | -21.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.95 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.05 | 6.2 | 6.35 | Raised | Guidance: 6 for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 4.7 | 4.95 | 5.2 | 4.2% | Raised | Guidance: 4.75 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 5.75 | 6 | 6.25 | 4.3% | Raised | Guidance: 5.75 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | Higher New | Guidance: -0.75% for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 4.5 | 4.75 | 5 | 20.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.95 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 5.5 | 5.75 | 6 | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.25 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | Reported | -0.75% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: -1.25% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 EPS | Reported | 3.9 | 3.95 | 4 | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.05 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 5.2 | 5.25 | 5.3 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.25 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 126.63 | 13,637 | 1,726,853 | 23,264,970 | Form | |
| 2 | Rajendra, Ajita G | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 131.34 | 8,450 | 1,109,823 | 2,656,352 | Form | |
| 3 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 127.35 | 8,448 | 1,075,853 | 25,133,923 | Form | |
| 4 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 117.34 | 37,181 | 4,362,819 | 24,225,430 | Form | |
| 5 | Timken, John M JR | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 116.51 | 15,000 | 1,747,650 | 30,845,323 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 126.63 | 13,637 | 1,726,853 | 23,264,970 | Form | |
| 2 | Rajendra, Ajita G | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 131.34 | 8,450 | 1,109,823 | 2,656,352 | Form | |
| 3 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 127.35 | 8,448 | 1,075,853 | 25,133,923 | Form | |
| 4 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 117.34 | 37,181 | 4,362,819 | 24,225,430 | Form | |
| 5 | Timken, John M JR | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 116.51 | 15,000 | 1,747,650 | 30,845,323 | Form | |
| 6 | Discenza, Michael Anthony | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 109.59 | 1,532 | 167,892 | 1,959,140 | Form |
| 7 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 107.99 | 19,636 | 2,120,428 | 26,309,465 | Form | |
| 8 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 106.72 | 10,000 | 1,067,200 | 28,096,388 | Form | |
| 9 | Patel, Hansal N | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 108.01 | 2,500 | 270,025 | 2,250,388 | Form |
| 10 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 106.52 | 30,206 | 3,217,543 | 25,148,307 | Form | |
| 11 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 81.03 | 15,837 | 1,283,272 | 21,630,310 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Timken — Investor Video Playlist




Industry Resources
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External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |
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