Timken (TKR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.87 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Timken (TKR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.87Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 7.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 7.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TKR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Timken (TKR) exceeded third-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue estimates.** The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.37, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.25, and revenue reached $1.16 billion, higher than the $1.12 billion estimate. This strong financial performance was a significant positive catalyst.
**2. Several analysts raised their price targets for TKR.** For instance, Citigroup increased its price target from $85.00 to $90.00 and maintained a "buy" rating in late September 2025. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and DA Davidson also boosted their price targets in late October and early November 2025, signaling increased confidence in the stock's future performance. Oppenheimer also reiterated an "outperform" rating and raised its price target on November 24, 2025, which contributed to a 3.12% rise in shares.
**3. Major institutional investors increased their holdings in Timken.** The New York State Common Retirement Fund, for example, grew its stake by 2.2% in the second quarter, holding shares valued at approximately $31.46 million. Other firms like Thomist Capital Management LP, Boston Partners, and Ceredex Value Advisors LLC also increased their positions. This increased institutional ownership reflects growing investor confidence.
**4. Timken declared a quarterly dividend.** On November 14, 2025, the company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, which was payable on December 5, 2025. Consistent dividend payouts can attract income-focused investors and contribute to stock stability and appeal.
**5. Timken received recognition as one of America's Most Responsible Companies.** On December 3, 2025, Newsweek named Timken to its America's Most Responsible Companies list for the sixth consecutive year. This recognition for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance can enhance the company's reputation and attract socially conscious investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TKR Return | 40% | -9% | 4% | 15% | -9% | 14% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 30% | -28% | 18% | 47% | 8% | 133% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TKR Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 46% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TKR Max Drawdown | -57% | -16% | -24% | -2% | -10% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -1% | -35% | -8% | -14% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GTLS, GTES, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG. See TKR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 353 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 274.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GTLS, GTES, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG
In The Past
Timken's stock fell -43.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -43.3% loss requires a 76.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TKR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302025 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.9% | 75.5% | -0.7% |
| 12312018 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.9% | 54.7% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302025 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.9% | 75.5% | -0.7% |
| 12312018 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.9% | 54.7% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Timken
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,291 |
| Op Inc LTM | 566 |
| FCF LTM | 390 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 345 |
| CFO LTM | 485 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 439 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 27.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |