Timken (TKR)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $119.985 | Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Timken (TKR)
Market Price (5/25/2026): $119.985Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3% Key risksTKR key risks include [1] an estimated direct financial impact of approximately $25 million from tariffs for 2025. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3% |
| Key risksTKR key risks include [1] an estimated direct financial impact of approximately $25 million from tariffs for 2025. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Timken (TKR) stock has gained about 30% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook Fueled Investor Confidence. Timken reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 in Q4 2025, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.09 by $0.05, with revenue of $1.11 billion exceeding estimates by $40 million and growing 3.5% year-over-year. This positive momentum continued into Q1 2026, where adjusted EPS reached $1.67, significantly beating consensus estimates of $1.50 by $0.17, and revenue of $1.23 billion surpassed expectations by $60 million, marking an 8% year-over-year increase. Following these strong results, Timken raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.75-$6.25 and upgraded its 2026 revenue growth outlook to approximately 5% at the midpoint from 2025, indicating improving margins and cash generation.
2. Positive Analyst Revisions and Increased Price Targets Signaled Optimism. Multiple Wall Street analysts reacted to Timken's performance and strategic moves by upgrading ratings and substantially increasing price targets. For example, DA Davidson raised its price target by 25.58% from $86.00 to $108.00 in February 2026. Other notable increases included Citigroup boosting its target from $115.00 to $125.00 in April 2026, Morgan Stanley raising its target from $116.00 to $119.00 in March 2026, Oppenheimer increasing its target to $132.00 in May 2026, and KeyCorp boosting its target from $130.00 to $140.00 in May 2026. The consensus average price target from analysts around $131.00 reflected a "Moderate Buy" rating, further bolstering positive sentiment.
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1. Strong Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook Fueled Investor Confidence. Timken reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 in Q4 2025, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.09 by $0.05, with revenue of $1.11 billion exceeding estimates by $40 million and growing 3.5% year-over-year. This positive momentum continued into Q1 2026, where adjusted EPS reached $1.67, significantly beating consensus estimates of $1.50 by $0.17, and revenue of $1.23 billion surpassed expectations by $60 million, marking an 8% year-over-year increase. Following these strong results, Timken raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.75-$6.25 and upgraded its 2026 revenue growth outlook to approximately 5% at the midpoint from 2025, indicating improving margins and cash generation.
2. Positive Analyst Revisions and Increased Price Targets Signaled Optimism. Multiple Wall Street analysts reacted to Timken's performance and strategic moves by upgrading ratings and substantially increasing price targets. For example, DA Davidson raised its price target by 25.58% from $86.00 to $108.00 in February 2026. Other notable increases included Citigroup boosting its target from $115.00 to $125.00 in April 2026, Morgan Stanley raising its target from $116.00 to $119.00 in March 2026, Oppenheimer increasing its target to $132.00 in May 2026, and KeyCorp boosting its target from $130.00 to $140.00 in May 2026. The consensus average price target from analysts around $131.00 reflected a "Moderate Buy" rating, further bolstering positive sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.5% change in TKR stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 92.59 | 119.95 | 29.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,544 | 4,673 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 6.6% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.7 | 27.1 | 24.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 29.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 58.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.1% | 79.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.4% change in TKR stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.66 | 119.95 | 54.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,544 | 4,673 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 6.6% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.2 | 27.1 | 48.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 54.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 60.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.5% | 79.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 90.5% change in TKR stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 101.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.96 | 119.95 | 90.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,523 | 4,673 | 3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 6.6% | -8.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.5 | 27.1 | 101.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 90.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 90.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.7% | 76.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.8% change in TKR stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 108.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.79 | 119.95 | 64.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,497 | 4,673 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 6.6% | -27.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 27.1 | 108.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 70 | 4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TKR | 64.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.6% | 72.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TKR Return | -9% | 4% | 15% | -9% | 20% | 42% | 69% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -15% | 37% | 19% | 22% | 17% | 164% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TKR Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 75% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 57% | 58% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TKR Max Drawdown | -29% | -30% | -27% | -23% | -31% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -33% | -23% | -15% | -28% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RBC, RRX, PH, ITT, DOV. See TKR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Timken's stock fell -30.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 44.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Timken's stock fell -30.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 44.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Timken (TKR)
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Mobile Industries and Process Industries. The Mobile Industries segment offers a portfolio of bearings, seals, and lubrication devices and systems, as well as power transmission components, engineered chains, augers, belts, couplings, clutches, brakes, and related products and maintenance services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users of off-highway equipment for the agricultural, construction, mining, outdoor power equipment, and power sports markets; and on-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks, as well as rail cars and locomotives. It also provides power transmission systems and flight-critical components for civil and military aircraft, which include bearings, rotor-head assemblies, helicopter transmission systems, turbine engine components, gears, and housings. This segment sells its parts through a network of authorized automotive and heavy-truck distributors to individual end-users, equipment owners, operators, and maintenance shops. The Process Industries segment provides industrial bearings and assemblies; power transmission components, such as gears and gearboxes; and linear motion products, couplings, seals, lubricants, chains, belts, and related products and services to OEMs and end-users in various industries. It also offers aftermarket sales and service needs through a network of authorized industrial distributors; and repair and service for bearings and gearboxes, as well as electric motor rewind, repair, and services to end-users. The company offers its products under the Timken, Philadelphia Gear, Drives, Cone Drive, Rollon, Lovejoy, Diamond, BEKA, and Groeneveld brands. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
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Analogy 1: The Bosch of industrial and mobile bearings and power transmission.
Analogy 2: The Intel for how the world's heavy equipment, vehicles, and factory machines rotate and move.
Analogy 3: A specialized version of Dana Inc. or ZF Friedrichshafen, focused on the bearings and gear systems that power a wide range of vehicles and industrial machinery.
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The Timken Company (TKR) major products and services include:
- Engineered Bearings: Designs and manufactures a wide range of bearings, seals, and assemblies for various mobile and industrial applications.
- Power Transmission Products: Provides components such as gears, gearboxes, chains, belts, couplings, clutches, brakes, and linear motion products for power transfer.
- Lubrication Systems & Lubricants: Offers lubrication devices, systems, and lubricants essential for the performance and longevity of machinery.
- Aerospace Flight-Critical Components: Develops specialized bearings, gears, housings, and complete power transmission systems for civil and military aircraft.
- Industrial Repair & Maintenance Services: Provides repair, service, and maintenance for bearings, gearboxes, and electric motors, ensuring operational efficiency for end-users.
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The Timken Company (TKR) primarily sells its products and services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B). The provided company description does not list specific customer company names. However, it identifies several major categories of corporate customers:
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): These customers integrate Timken's engineered bearings and power transmission products into a wide array of equipment and vehicles. This includes OEMs for:
- Off-highway equipment for agricultural, construction, mining, outdoor power, and power sports markets.
- On-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, rail cars, and locomotives.
- Civil and military aircraft, requiring flight-critical components like bearings, rotor-head assemblies, and transmission systems.
- Various industrial machinery and systems across diverse industries.
- Industrial End-Users: These are companies across various industries that utilize and maintain industrial machinery and equipment. They purchase Timken's products and services, including industrial bearings and assemblies, power transmission components, linear motion products, couplings, seals, lubricants, chains, belts, and related services (such as repair and service for bearings, gearboxes, and electric motor rewind).
- Authorized Distributors: Timken utilizes networks of authorized automotive, heavy-truck, and industrial distributors. These distributors serve as key intermediaries for aftermarket sales and service, reaching individual end-users, equipment owners, operators, and maintenance shops.
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Lucian Boldea - President and Chief Executive Officer
Lucian Boldea joined The Timken Company in 2025 as President and Chief Executive Officer. He brings over 25 years of global leadership experience across industrial technology, advanced manufacturing, and digital automation. Prior to Timken, Boldea served as President and CEO of Honeywell Industrial Automation, a global business segment with over $10 billion in sales. He also previously led Honeywell Performance Materials and Technologies. Before his time at Honeywell, Boldea was an executive vice president at Eastman Chemical Company, where he was noted for scaling businesses, accelerating innovation, and instilling operational and financial discipline across global teams.
Michael A. Discenza - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael A. Discenza was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Timken Company in 2025. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing the company's global finance and accounting organizations, managing investor relations, and contributing to Timken's strategy focused on profitable organic growth, operational excellence, and effective capital deployment.
Timothy A. Graham - Executive Vice President and President of Industrial Motion
Timothy A. Graham serves as Executive Vice President and President of Industrial Motion at The Timken Company.
Hansal N. Patel - Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Hansal N. Patel is Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of The Timken Company, having been named an executive officer in 2019. He acts as a legal advisor to the company's senior leadership and Board of Directors. Patel oversees a global legal team responsible for Timken's worldwide legal affairs, which include securities, mergers and acquisitions, corporate counseling, litigation, ethics, compliance, and government affairs. He is also responsible for the company's corporate governance initiatives and global Environmental, Health & Safety (EH&S).
Natasha Pollock - Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Natasha Pollock holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at The Timken Company, a role she assumed in 2022. She leads a global HR team focused on fostering a performance-driven environment that encourages new ideas and impactful solutions. Pollock has been instrumental in the company's geographic expansion through her development of Timken's global HR strategy, talent, and culture, and is recognized for her expertise in leadership and talent development, complex organizational change management, and employee engagement.
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The Timken Company (TKR) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from its exposure to global industrial markets and competitive pressures. Here are the key risks to Timken's business:- Dependence on Economic Cycles and Industrial Demand: The demand for Timken's engineered bearings and power transmission products is closely tied to global industrial business cycles. Economic downturns or slowdowns in key sectors, such as automotive, agriculture, construction, mining, and heavy industry, can adversely affect the company's sales and profitability. The company has experienced slight year-over-year revenue declines due to softness in global industrial markets, particularly in Europe and a downturn in China's renewable energy market.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure: Timken operates in a highly competitive global market, facing significant competition from both domestic and international players, including major rivals like SKF, Schaeffler, NSK, NTN, and JTEKT. This intense competition can impact market penetration, pricing strategies, and overall profitability, especially from Asian manufacturers offering commoditized bearings.
- Supply Chain Disruptions, Tariffs, and Raw Material/Energy Cost Volatility: As a global manufacturer, Timken's operations are susceptible to disruptions in its supply chain, which can arise from factors such as trade conflicts, tariffs, and logistical challenges. These disruptions can lead to increased costs and production delays. Furthermore, fluctuations in raw material and energy costs can compress profit margins.
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The Timken Company operates in addressable markets that include industrial bearings, aerospace bearings, and mechanical power transmission products globally.Addressable Markets for The Timken Company (TKR)
- Industrial Bearings: The global industrial bearings market was valued at approximately US$ 185.5 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to about US$ 398.7 billion by the end of 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2025 to 2035.
- Aerospace Bearings: The global aerospace bearings market is estimated to be valued at approximately US$ 13.9 billion in 2026. This market is expected to grow to about US$ 21.7 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.6% between 2026 and 2033.
- Mechanical Power Transmission Products: The global mechanical power transmission products market is projected to expand from approximately US$ 65.15 billion in 2025 to about US$ 91.30 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 4.31%.
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The Timken Company (TKR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic pricing, expansion in high-growth industrial markets, portfolio optimization, and new product and service introductions. Here are the key drivers:- Strategic Pricing Actions: Timken anticipates continued organic revenue growth through strategic pricing initiatives across both its Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments. Pricing actions consistently contributed to top-line benefits in previous quarters and are projected to be a factor in the company's 2026 revenue outlook.
- Expansion in High-Growth and Automation Markets: The company is focusing on and experiencing growth in high-value sectors, including renewable energy, aerospace, and general industrial markets. Notably, the Industrial Motion segment has shown strong organic growth, particularly driven by increasing demand in industrial automation and linear motion technologies. Timken is also actively exploring new high-value verticals, such as medical robotics.
- Portfolio Optimization and Strategic Acquisitions: Timken's "80/20" portfolio discipline is a key strategy aimed at structurally improving margins by focusing on higher-growth and higher-margin businesses. This simplification and focus on lucrative sectors are expected to contribute to more efficient and profitable revenue generation. Furthermore, the company continues to integrate acquisitions, such as the CGI acquisition, and seeks to drive synergies from these strategic additions to accelerate global revenue growth.
- New Product and Service Innovation: A stated focus for Timken is to launch new products and services to enhance its organic growth algorithm. These innovations are expected to fuel better top-line performance by addressing evolving customer needs and market demands.
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Share Repurchases
- The Timken Company's board approved a new share repurchase plan, effective March 1, 2026, authorizing the buyback of up to 10 million outstanding common shares through February 28, 2031.
- Timken repurchased $250.9 million of its stock in 2023.
- The company repurchased $57.4 million of its stock in 2025 and $40.5 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Timken's Net Issuance of Common Stock for December 31, 2025, was -$55.5 million, indicating that repurchases exceeded issuances.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2024, Timken finalized the acquisition of CGI, Inc., a manufacturer of precision drive systems, expanding its presence in the automation market, particularly in medical robotics.
- During 2023, Timken completed the acquisition of Nadella Group, a European manufacturer of linear guides and specialized industrial motion solutions, which had approximately €100 million in revenue in 2022.
- In early 2023, Timken acquired Engineered Solutions Group (iMECH) for an undisclosed amount, a manufacturer of thrust and radial bearings for the energy industry, which projected around $30 million in revenue for that year. The company also acquired the assets of American Roller Bearing Company for $32 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $148.2 million in 2025, $170 million in 2024, and $187.8 million in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately 3.5% of sales.
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|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| TKR Stock Surges 17% With A 7-day Spree On Keybanc Upgrade To $130 | 02/11/2026 | |
| Timken Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| Is Timken Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Timken vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
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| TKR Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TKR.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 04302025 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 75.6% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.9% | 75.5% | -0.7% |
| 12312018 | TKR | Timken | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.9% | 54.7% | -2.5% |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 205.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 677 |
| FCF LTM | 645 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 550 |
| CFO LTM | 749 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 662 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.3 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 34.3 |
| P/CFO | 23.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 113.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.6% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $119.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $106.50 | $90.06 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.6% | 33.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.8% | 32.3% |
| Downside Capture | 154.25 | 127.15 |
| Upside Capture | 149.14 | 155.60 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 64.4% | 58.3% |
TKR Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.42 | 1.49 | 1.24 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 1.21 |
| Up Beta | 2.35 | 2.16 | 2.07 | 1.74 | 1.92 | 1.29 |
| Down Beta | -0.76 | 2.03 | 1.51 | 1.26 | 1.47 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | 71% | 93% | 111% | 178% | 171% | 158% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 22 | 35 | 65 | 129 | 381 |
| Down Capture | -204% | 120% | 55% | 90% | 110% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 21 | 29 | 60 | 123 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TKR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 75.6% | 32.3% | 1.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.3% | 15.4% | 1.16 | 75.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 58.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | 19.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -21.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 46.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.3% | 41.8% | -0.78 | 25.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TKR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 7.8% | 32.6% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.2% | 17.4% | 0.54 | 75.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 61.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 14.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 50.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.6% | 55.3% | 0.41 | 22.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TKR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 16.2% | 35.7% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 77.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 65.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 26.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 51.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 16.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 9.2% | 6.8% | |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.0% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.6% | -1.2% | 5.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.7% | -7.8% | -2.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 3.5% | 4.1% | -2.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | -12.9% | -8.2% | -6.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.6% | -5.3% | -2.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.9% | 3.4% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -4.4% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 13.8% | 32.6% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -14.3% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | 4.5 | 4.75 | 5 | 20.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.95 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 5.5 | 5.75 | 6 | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.25 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -500.0% | 3.8% | Higher New | Guidance: -0.75% for 2025 |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 EPS | 3.9 | 3.95 | 4 | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.05 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 5.2 | 5.25 | 5.3 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.25 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | -0.75% | -40.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: -1.25% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 117.34 | 37,181 | 4,362,819 | 24,225,430 | Form | |
| 2 | Timken, John M JR | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 116.51 | 15,000 | 1,747,650 | 30,845,323 | Form | |
| 3 | Discenza, Michael Anthony | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 109.59 | 1,532 | 167,892 | 1,959,140 | Form |
| 4 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 107.99 | 19,636 | 2,120,428 | 26,309,465 | Form | |
| 5 | Kyle, Richard G | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 106.72 | 10,000 | 1,067,200 | 28,096,388 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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