Tearsheet

Timken (TKR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.87 | Market Cap: $5.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Timken (TKR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.87
Market Cap: $5.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TKR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Timken (TKR) exceeded third-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue estimates.** The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.37, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.25, and revenue reached $1.16 billion, higher than the $1.12 billion estimate. This strong financial performance was a significant positive catalyst.

**2. Several analysts raised their price targets for TKR.** For instance, Citigroup increased its price target from $85.00 to $90.00 and maintained a "buy" rating in late September 2025. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and DA Davidson also boosted their price targets in late October and early November 2025, signaling increased confidence in the stock's future performance. Oppenheimer also reiterated an "outperform" rating and raised its price target on November 24, 2025, which contributed to a 3.12% rise in shares.

**3. Major institutional investors increased their holdings in Timken.** The New York State Common Retirement Fund, for example, grew its stake by 2.2% in the second quarter, holding shares valued at approximately $31.46 million. Other firms like Thomist Capital Management LP, Boston Partners, and Ceredex Value Advisors LLC also increased their positions. This increased institutional ownership reflects growing investor confidence.

**4. Timken declared a quarterly dividend.** On November 14, 2025, the company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, which was payable on December 5, 2025. Consistent dividend payouts can attract income-focused investors and contribute to stock stability and appeal.

**5. Timken received recognition as one of America's Most Responsible Companies.** On December 3, 2025, Newsweek named Timken to its America's Most Responsible Companies list for the sixth consecutive year. This recognition for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance can enhance the company's reputation and attract socially conscious investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TKR Return40%-9%4%15%-9%14%58%
Peers Return34%30%-28%18%47%8%133%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TKR Win Rate75%50%33%50%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate58%58%42%50%46%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TKR Max Drawdown-57%-16%-24%-2%-10%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-1%-35%-8%-14%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GTLS, GTES, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG. See TKR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTKRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven140.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven203 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven353 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven274.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven563 days1480 days

Compare to GTLS, GTES, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG


In The Past

Timken's stock fell -43.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -43.3% loss requires a 76.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Timken (TKR)

Better Bets than Timken (TKR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TKR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TKR_4302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302025TKRTimkenDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%30.2%0.0%
TKR_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022TKRTimkenDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.9%75.5%-0.7%
TKR_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018TKRTimkenDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
38.9%54.7%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TKR_4302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302025TKRTimkenDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%30.2%0.0%
TKR_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022TKRTimkenDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.9%75.5%-0.7%
TKR_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018TKRTimkenDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
38.9%54.7%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Timken

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TKRGTLSGTESADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameTimken Chart In.Gates In.AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
Mkt Price82.52204.9622.19---82.52
Mkt Cap5.79.25.7---5.7
Rev LTM4,5444,2913,416---4,291
Op Inc LTM566688494---566
FCF LTM390398285---390
FCF 3Y Avg371185345---345
CFO LTM550485399---485
CFO 3Y Avg544302439---439

Growth & Margins

TKRGTLSGTESADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameTimken Chart In.Gates In.AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.0%5.5%-0.7%----0.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.0%43.7%-0.5%---1.0%
Rev Chg Q2.7%3.6%3.0%---3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%0.9%0.7%---0.7%
Op Mgn LTM12.5%16.0%14.5%---14.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.6%13.9%13.8%---13.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.2%-0.0%----0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM12.1%11.3%11.7%---11.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.7%7.5%12.5%---11.7%
FCF/Rev LTM8.6%9.3%8.4%---8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.0%4.1%9.9%---8.0%

Valuation

TKRGTLSGTESADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameTimken Chart In.Gates In.AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
Mkt Cap5.79.25.7---5.7
P/S1.22.11.9---1.9
P/EBIT9.622.013.5---13.5
P/E17.6134.927.0---27.0
P/CFO9.518.516.0---16.0
Total Yield7.5%0.7%3.7%---3.7%
Dividend Yield1.9%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.9%2.6%8.7%---6.9%
D/E0.40.40.4---0.4
Net D/E0.30.40.3---0.3

Returns

TKRGTLSGTESADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameTimken Chart In.Gates In.AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
1M Rtn6.3%2.8%0.3%---2.8%
3M Rtn10.3%3.0%-12.6%---3.0%
6M Rtn18.0%40.1%3.6%---18.0%
12M Rtn8.2%5.7%-1.0%---5.7%
3Y Rtn17.7%45.9%91.5%---45.9%
1M Excs Rtn6.4%2.8%0.3%---2.8%
3M Excs Rtn1.7%-2.5%-19.8%----2.5%
6M Excs Rtn3.2%25.4%-11.1%---3.2%
12M Excs Rtn-5.1%-7.5%-13.4%----7.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.9%-19.1%24.3%----19.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Engineered Bearings3,2973,270   
Industrial Motion2,7442,070   
Corporate500432406477383
Mobile Industries  2,2162,0822,110
Process Industries  2,5482,4832,367
Total6,5425,7725,1715,0424,860


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,293,599
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.2%
Average Daily Volume644,892
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.56
Basic Shares Quantity69,650,093
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021